Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model

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Title: Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model
Author: Isoré, Marlène ; Szczerbowicz, Urszula
Series: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Series volume: 79
Series number: 1 June
Year of publication: 2017
Publication date: 14.4.2017
Published in: CEPII Working Paper N°2015-16, September 2015
Pages: 97-125
Keywords: suhdanteet; riskit; DSGE; mallit; epävarmuus
JEL: E20; E31; E32; E44; G12; Q54
Other keywords: Disaster risk; Rare events; Uncertainty; Asset pricing; DSGE models; Business cycles
Abstract: In RBC models, disaster risk shocks reproduce countercyclical risk premia but generate an increase in consumption along the recession and asset price fall, through their effects on agents’ preferences (Gourio, 2012). This paper offers a solution to this puzzle by developing a New Keynesian model with such a small but time-varying probability of “disaster”. We show that price stickiness, combined with an EIS smaller than unity, restores procyclical consumption and wages, while preserving countercyclical risk premia, in response to disaster risk shocks. The mechanism then provides a rationale for discount factor first- and second-moment (“uncertainty”) shocks.
Link: http://www.cepii.fr/CEPII/en/publications/wp/abstract.asp?NoDoc=8299


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