The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty

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Titel: The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty
Författare: Caggiano, Giovanni ; Castelnuovo, Efrem ; Kima, Richard
Institution: Bank of Finland
Serie: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
Serienumber: 11/2020
Utgivningsår: 2020
Utgivningsdatum: 8.6.2020
Sidor: 14
Subject (yso): teollisuus; tuotanto; kansainvälinen talous; epävarmuus; pandemiat; taloudelliset vaikutukset
Nyckelord: COVID-19; teollisuustuotanto; rahoitussyklit
JEL: C32; E32
Andra nyckelord: Financial Uncertainty; Vector AutoRegressions; World industrial production; Global financial cycle
Abstrakt: We estimate a three-variate VAR using proxies of global financial uncertainty, the global financial cycle, and world industrial production to simulate the effects of the jump in financial uncertainty observed in correspondence of the Covid-19 outbreak. We predict the cumulative loss in world output one year after the uncertainty shock due to Covid-19 to be about 14%.
Licens: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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