Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks

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Title: Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks
Author: Tölö, Eero
Series: Journal of Financial Stability
Series volume: 49
Series number: August
Year of publication: 2020
Publication date: 31.5.2020
Published in: Published in BoF 14/2019.
Keywords: pankkikriisit; pankit; riskit; kriisit; ennusteet; ennakointi; neuroverkot
JEL: G21; C45; C52
Other keywords: Early warning system; Systemic Banking crises; Neural networks; Validation
Abstract: We consider predicting systemic financial crises one to five years ahead using recurrent neural networks. We evaluate the prediction performance with the Jórda-Schularick-Taylor dataset, which includes the crisis dates and annual macroeconomic series of 17 countries over the period 1870−2016. Previous literature has found that simple neural net architectures are useful and outperform the traditional logistic regression model in predicting systemic financial crises. We show that such predictions can be significantly improved by making use of the Long-Short Term Memory (RNN-LSTM) and the Gated Recurrent Unit (RNN-GRU) neural nets. Behind the success is the recurrent networks’ ability to make more robust predictions from the time series data. The results remain robust after extensive sensitivity analysis.

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