The depths of the COVID-19 crisis, and the recovery

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Title: The depths of the COVID-19 crisis, and the recovery
Author: Pönkä, Harri ; Sariola, Mikko
Organization: Bank of Finland
Series: Bank of Finland. Bulletin
Series volume: 94
Series number: 6/2020
Year of publication: 2021
Publication date: 12.1.2021
Pages: 35-58
Subject (yso): pandemiat; kriisit; taloudelliset vaikutukset; palveluala; tuotanto; indikaattorit; taloudelliset ennusteet
Keywords: COVID-19; koronakriisi; tuotantokuilu; potentiaalinen tuotanto; suhdanteet; finanssikriisi
Other keywords: corona crisis; service sectors; potential output; output gap; output; financial crisis
Abstract: In the Bank of Finland’s December 2020 forecast, the crisis caused by COVID-19 is not expected to be as deep as the global financial crisis and recovery is expected to be faster. Although both recessions have had a broad-ranging impact, in the recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic it is mainly service industries that have suffered. According to the forecast, the current crisis will result in temporarily slower economic growth in the next few years, but in the medium term the economy will see a return to the growth rates that preceded the crisis.
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