Fear, overconfidence, and fundamental uncertainty shocks

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Title: Fear, overconfidence, and fundamental uncertainty shocks
Author: Ambrocio, Gene
Series: Applied Economics Letters
Series volume: 28
Series number: 9
Year of publication: 2021
Publication date: 7.6.2021
DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1776830
Pages: 760-764
Keywords: euroalue; odotukset; epävarmuus; mittarit; ennusteet; makrotalous
JEL: C32; D84; E37
Other keywords: uncertainty; survey forecasts; fear; overconfidence
Abstract: I study the effects of expected and realized uncertainty on Euro area macroeconomic conditions. I use a range of expected and realized uncertainty measures including those based on survey forecasts and find that the effects of expected uncertainty vanish once realized uncertainty is accounted for when using financial or news media-based measures. On the other hand, shocks to a survey-based measure of expected uncertainty do appear to have dampening effects.


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