Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19

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Titel: Russia's growth potential post-COVID-19
Författare: Korhonen, Iikka
Institution: Bank of Finland
Avdelning / Enhet: Suomen Pankin nousevien talouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT)
Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
Serie: BOFIT Policy Brief
Serienumber: 9/2021
Utgivningsår: 2021
Utgivningsdatum: 1.7.2021
Sidor: 13
Subject (yso): talouskasvu; bruttokansantuote; tuottavuus
Nyckelord: Bofit-kokoelma; COVID-19; Venäjä
Abstrakt: This paper updates my earlier calculations on Russia’s long-run growth potential using a standard growth accounting framework in which GDP growth depends on available labor, capital and efficiency in combining them, i.e. total factor productivity. Russia’s economy has grown relatively slowly during the past decade, partly because of declining labor force. In my revised framework, growth recovers after the negative COVID-19 shock, but remains subdued as the working-age population continues to dwindle. Productivity growth remains lower than in the early 2000s, while average GDP growth settles at approximately 1.5% p.a.
Innehållsförteckning: Abstract .....3 1. Introduction and summary of results .....4 2. Recent developments in the Russian economy .....4 3. Long-run growth .....7 4. Concluding remarks .....10 References .....11

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