Win-Win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy

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Title: Win-Win? Assessing the global impact of the Chinese economy
Author: Herrala, Risto ; Orlandi, Fabrice
Series: Asia & Global Economy
Series volume: 1
Series number: 1 ; January
Year of publication: 2021
Publication date: 15.06.2021
Page range: 1-9
Keywords: Kiina; Kiinan talous; talouskasvu; vaikutukset; kansainvälinen talous; hinnat
JEL: C2; F15; F440
Other keywords: Chinese economy; Global spillover; Real time data
Abstract: We study the global impact of the Chinese economy based on a novel indirect approach where the spillover effect is quantified from a forecast error model under relatively favorable identifying conditions. Findings from the real-time World Economic Outlook data over the period 2004 ̶ 2015 indicate that an increase in economic growth in China had a negative impact on most other economies one to two years ahead. The estimations furthermore uncover evidence at the global level that spillover propagated by influencing prices, including global commodity prices, which tend to increase in reaction to accelerating economic growth in China.

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