Made in Russia? Assessing Russia’s potential for import substitution

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Title: Made in Russia? Assessing Russia’s potential for import substitution
Author: Simola, Heli
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Policy Brief
Series number: 3/2022
Year of publication: 2022
Publication date: 5.5.2022
Pages: 20
Subject (yso): pakotteet; ulkomaankauppa; tuonti; vienti; tuotanto
Keywords: Bofit-kokoelma; Venäjä; Kiina
Table of contents: Abstract ... 3 1. Introduction ... 4 2. Russia’s total import dependence and production structure ... 4 3. Import dependence of Russian production ... 6 3.1 Russia is most dependent on imported inputs in high-technology ... 7 3.1.1 Russian machinery and equipment manufacturing sectors are most dependent on imported inputs ... 7 3.1.2 Russia relies on imports particularly for machinery and equipment ... 8 3.2 Perspectives for Russian import substitution are meagre ... 9 3.2.1 Success of import substitution in the agricultural sector has been limited...9 3.2.2 Russia has limited potential to replace imports by reorienting exports ... 10 3.2.3 Survey results highlight problems related to import substitution ... 10 4. Geographical origin of Russia’s imported inputs ... 11 4.1 EU is still the largest provider of imported inputs, but share has decreased...12 4.2 Origin of imports by Russian end-use industry ... 13 4.3 EU dominates high-technology input imports, but China’s share has increased ... 14 4.4 Assessing China’s potential to replace Western imports ... 16 5. Concluding remarks ... 17 References ... 18

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