BOFIT Policy Brief (2014- )

 

A series devoted to analytical studies by BOFIT economists and guest researchers. The focus is on descriptive work on economic policy and economic developments in transition economies. BOFIT Policy Brief papers are published either in Finnish or in English. The series was called BOFIT Online until 2013.

Recent Submissions

  • Hake, Mariya; Radzyner, Alice (2019)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 1/2019
    Although the European Union (EU) countries constitute the largest trade partner and investor of the Western Balkan economies, economic exposure in terms of trade and investments to Turkey, Russia and China has been on the rise in the past decade. Turkey is among the top trading partners of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, while its investments in the banking sectors in the rest of the Western Balkan economies is gaining also in importance. Going further, the trade volume with Russia is overall small except for Serbia, however, Russian investments are sizable in key sectors (e.g energy, real estate) in Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Financial and economic ties with China have intensified particularly between 2015 and 2017, not least because the region is part of the New Silk Road and the so-called “16+1 format”. China invests in regional infrastructure, such as ports, railroads and highways mainly in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. Overall, the growing influence of non-EU global players poses an additional pressure on the EU to thoroughly follow its Western Balkan strategy.
  • Nuutilainen, Riikka (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 11/2018
    Talouden kasvun ja kehityksen myötä Kiina on noussut yhä tärkeämmäksi toimijaksi maailmantaloudessa, ja pitkällä tähtäimellä maan rahoitusmarkkinoiden avaamisen ja integroitumisen maailmanmarkkinoihin voidaan nähdä jatkuvan. Viime vuosina juanin kansainvälistymiskehitys on kuitenkin hidastunut ja pääomaliikkeiden sekä rahoitusmarkkinoiden vapauttamisessa on otettu osin taka-askelia. Toimet osoittavat, että Kiina on yhä valmis puuttumaan herkästi sekä pääomaliikkeisiin että kotimaisten rahoitusmarkkinoiden toimintaan. Näkemys talouden avautumiskehityksestä ei ole yhtä suoraviivainen kuin vielä muutama vuosi sitten. Epävarmuutta lisää kotimaan rahoitusmarkkinariskien kasvu.
  • Vlasov, Sergey; Mamedli, Mariam (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 10/2018
    Russia’s level of pension provision lags most OECD countries, as well as faces challenges from rising pension fund deficits and an aging population. On the current course, in the long run Russia can expect decreased budget revenues that would require to adjust government spending. While many countries moved after the 2008 global financial crisis to overhaul their pension systems, Russia postponed action until recently. This paper presents estimates of retirement pension expenditures through 2035 under various assumptions about economic growth, demographic composition, and possible reforms to the pension system. Two recent measures by the government (abolition of indexing adjustments for working retirees and an increase in the retirement age for public servants) will slightly mitigate the long-term negative trends. For any of our assumptions, Russia’s decision to begin raising the retirement age by six months a year starting in 2019 will put the retirement pension expenditures relative to GDP on the downward trajectory. This reform allows an accelerating increase in pensions to improve retiree welfare and makes up for some of expected decline in overall budget revenues, making it easier to stabilize the level of public spending relative to GDP. Acceleration of economic growth backed by structural reforms limits further the growth in pension expenditures.
  • Rautava, Jouko (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 9/2018
    Tässä kirjoituksessa tarkastellaan Kiinan ja Venäjän kahdenvälisten taloussuhteiden kehitystä tällä vuosikymmenellä. Maiden välisen kaupan kasvu perustuu pääasiassa Kiinan vahvaan talouskehitykseen, energiaan ja Venäjän länsisuhteiden romahtamiseen, joka on saanut Venäjän pitkän hapuilun jälkeen tosissaan hakemaan vientimahdollisuuksia myös Aasiasta. Maiden kahdenvälisissä suhteissa ei ole tapahtunut sellaisia poliittisia tai institutionaalisia läpimurtoja tai muita muutoksia, jotka olisivat nostaneet taloussuhteet laadullisesti uudelle tasolle verrattuna vuosikymmenen alkuun. Suhteet perustuvat edelleen tavarakauppaan eikä merkkejä syvemmästä talousintegraatiosta ole helppo löytää. Kiinan talouskasvun hidastuminen luo uudenlaisia haasteita maiden kanssakäymiseen.
  • Gould-Davies, Nigel (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2018
    This brief assesses the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia, and their likely future impact. It examines the unique features of Russia as a sanctions target in the context of global sanctions experience. It then considers the goals that sanctions are intended to achieve, their impact so far, and the second-order effects of Russia’s responses. It concludes that, although the factors that typically correlate with sanctions success are absent, sanctions on Russia have nonetheless achieved important goals relatively quickly. Their impact will increase over time. Though speculative at this stage, recent oligarch sanctions and more stringent scrutiny may have significant consequences. They pose new and difficult choices for Russia’s business elite, much of which is dependent on the global economy. How oligarchs resolve these dilemmas has important implications for Russia’s domestic evolution.