BOFIT Policy Brief (2014- )

 

BOFIT Policy Brief on siirtymätalousmaita koskevia selvityksiä sisältävä suomen- ja englanninkielinen julkaisusarja. Sarjassa julkaisevat sekä vierailevat että laitoksen omat tutkijat. Vuosina 1999–2013 julkaisu ilmestyi BOFIT Online -nimisenä.
A series devoted to analytical studies by BOFIT economists and guest researchers. The focus is on descriptive work on economic policy and economic developments in transition economies. BOFIT Policy Brief papers are published either in Finnish or in English. The series was called BOFIT Online until 2013.

Uusimmat julkaisut

  • Gould-Davies, Nigel (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2018
    This brief assesses the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia, and their likely future impact. It examines the unique features of Russia as a sanctions target in the context of global sanctions experience. It then considers the goals that sanctions are intended to achieve, their impact so far, and the second-order effects of Russia’s responses. It concludes that, although the factors that typically correlate with sanctions success are absent, sanctions on Russia have nonetheless achieved important goals relatively quickly. Their impact will increase over time. Though speculative at this stage, recent oligarch sanctions and more stringent scrutiny may have significant consequences. They pose new and difficult choices for Russia’s business elite, much of which is dependent on the global economy. How oligarchs resolve these dilemmas has important implications for Russia’s domestic evolution.
  • Woo, Wing Thye (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 7/2018
    Our principal policy suggestion to China is that, because China’s economy in 2018 is very different from that in 1978, there should be more reciprocity in China’s trade and investment relations with the advanced economies. China should not only give national treatment in the near future to foreign firms but should also set up a mechanism to start easing up on foreign acquisition of Chinese firms in a manner that is consistent with China’s national security concerns. Our principal policy suggestion to the US is to stop equating strategic competition with economic competition. Strategic competition is normally a zero-sum game while economic competition is usually a zero-sum game in the short-run, but generally creates a win-win outcome in the long-run. National economic dynamism and economic resilience emerge from international economic competition and not from sheltering domestic high-tech firms permanently.
  • Wagner, Helmut (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 6/2018
    China is currently experiencing a structural change toward tertiarization and an implied growth slowdown associated with it. The paper investigates whether this growth slowdown is merely cyclical or a negative trend, and further what China is doing or should do to avoid falling into a “middle-income trap,” a problem many emerging economies have experienced in recent decades. The pitfalls of the current “soft” rebalancing policy in China are analyzed in the context of this development.
  • Yakovlev, Andrei; Freinkman, Lev; Ershova, Nina (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2018
    We explore the role and organizing capacity of foreign business associations (FBAs) in the Russian context. Considering the potential role of FBAs as effective intermediaries during time of aggravated international relations, the paper examines the problems and mechanisms of foreign firms’ interaction with key national partners in their host countries and describes the conditions that lead to effective dialogue between FBAs and national governments. The main phases and factors of evolution are identified for Russia’s two main channels of foreign firms’ collective actions: The Foreign Investment Advisory Council, which is chaired by Russia’s prime minister, and FBAs. A comparative analysis of the efficiencies of each channel finds that political, rather than economic or institutional, factors play the dominant role in explaining the shifting efficiency of collective action of foreign firms over time.
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2018)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2018
    This note briefly reviews the history and current impacts of sanctions on Russian entities imposed by the EU, US and others, as well as Russia’s counter-sanctions imposed on Western countries. A large drop in price of oil in 2014 and 2015 coincided with these measures, complicating our efforts to tease out the specific economic effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. While it is clear that the decline in oil prices had a substantially larger impact on Russian GDP in 2014−2016 than sanctions, the sanctions regime proved effective in restricting access of Russian banks to capital. Looking specifically the impacts on EU countries, we note that the declines in trade with Russia and the EU’s reduced market share in Russia are to some extent continuations of long-term trends. Russia’s counter-sanctions have targeted, among other things, EU food exports to Russia. While the macroeconomic effects Russia’s counter-sanctions on the EU have been marginal, food sector in some EU countries has been affected. Russia’s counter-sanctions have also directly lowered consumption of affected goods in Russia.