BOFIT Policy Brief (2014- )

 

A series devoted to analytical studies by BOFIT economists and guest researchers. The focus is on descriptive work on economic policy and economic developments in emerging economies. BOFIT Policy Brief papers are published either in Finnish or in English. The series was called BOFIT Online until 2013.


Recent Submissions

  • Korhonen, Iikka (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 9/2021
    This paper updates my earlier calculations on Russia’s long-run growth potential using a standard growth accounting framework in which GDP growth depends on available labor, capital and efficiency in combining them, i.e. total factor productivity. Russia’s economy has grown relatively slowly during the past decade, partly because of declining labor force. In my revised framework, growth recovers after the negative COVID-19 shock, but remains subdued as the working-age population continues to dwindle. Productivity growth remains lower than in the early 2000s, while average GDP growth settles at approximately 1.5% p.a.
  • Barker, Jamie; Herrala, Risto (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 8/2021
    Since embarking on economic reform in 1991, India has experienced three decades of rapid economic development. Recently, however, there has been significant uncertainty about the growth outlook of the Indian economy in the mid-term perspective. In this paper we use standard regression techniques to project the path of the Indian economy over the next 4 years. The analysis, which abstracts from the pandemic period, mainly serves as support to forecasting the global economy. After the pandemic, GDP growth is projected to rebound this year and then slide to-wards 6 ‒ 7% in the medium term. The analysis broadly agrees with the recent projections of India’s mid-term growth rate by other institutions.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 7/2021
    The past two decades have witnessed a major transformation of global energy markets. While growth in energy demand now comes from emerging economies, and technologies critical to oil and natural gas production have seen dramatic advances, the biggest changes in global energy markets lie ahead. For countries to meet their ambitious climate goals, demand for conventional energy sources must fall significantly and be accompanied by a massive shift in investment to renewable energy sources. Such changes can have major implications for the Russian economy, which depends heavily on oil and gas. This brief provides an overview of the latest trends in Russia’s oil & gas sector in the context of evolving global energy markets.
  • Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 6/2021
    Globaalit energiamarkkinat ovat olleet murroksessa koko 2000-luvun. Viimeisen kahdenkymmenen vuoden aikana energian kysynnän kasvu on siirtynyt voimakkaasti nouseviin talouksiin samalla kun öljyn ja maakaasun tuotantoteknologiat ovat kehittyneet merkittävästi. Vielä suurempi murros energiamarkkinoilla näyttää kuitenkin olevan edessä. Monien maiden kunnianhimoiset ilmastotavoitteet voivat vähentää globaalia energian kysyntää huomattavasti ja suunnata sitä entistä enemmän uusiutuviin energianlähteisiin. Venäjän taloudelle tällä saattaa olla merkittäviä vaikutuksia, koska öljy- ja kaasusektorin rooli taloudessa on suuri. Tässä julkaisussa tarkastellaan Venäjän öljy ja kaasusektorin viimeaikaista kehitystä ja tulevaisuudennäkymiä globaalien energiamarkkinoiden murroksen taustaa vasten.
  • Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Laakkonen, Helinä (2021)
    BOFIT Policy Brief 5/2021
    China became the world’s largest lender to emerging and developing economies over the past decade. At the same time, concerns on the debt sustainability of many of these countries have grown. Some countries have found themselves struggling to repay their loans and China has had to renegotiate debt restructurings bilaterally. As covid-19 pandemic hit many of the borrowers hard in 2020, China committed with all other G20 countries to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) to temporarily suspend official bilateral debt payment of 73 beneficiary countries. While China’s overseas lending remain opaque, there is little evidence that China intentionally practices “debt-trap diplomacy.”