BOFIT Forecast for Russia (2008- )

 

Forecast for the Russian economy published twice a year. Available also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Venäjä-ennuste.

Recent Submissions

  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2019)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2019
    Russia’s high growth last year was spurred by transient factors, and growth is expected to subside to lower levels this year. The outlook for global economic growth darkened considerably over the summer and is reflected in the performance of the Russian economy. Growth slowed much more in the first half of this year than we anticipated in our April forecast. For all of 2019, we now expect growth of around 1 % p.a. Otherwise, our outlook for the Russian economy in coming years is largely unchanged from earlier forecasts. Stagnating real incomes and decelerating growth rates in household borrowing should supress private consumption growth. Government policies are unlikely to support private investments. In other words, growth in the years ahead will come largely from public consumption and net exports. Investments stipulated by government’s national projects will lift economic growth slightly, especially in 2020. Growth slows towards 1.5 % p.a. at the end of the forecast period.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2019)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2019
    Russian economic growth gathered steam in 2018. Rising oil prices and ruble depreciation combined to boost budget revenues and net export earnings. Russia’s hosting of the 2018 FIFA World Cup international football tournament boosted demand in the tourism and restaurant industries. Large investment projects in the natural gas industry also advanced faster than expected. The contraction of the corporate credit stock ended, while growth of the household credit stock accelerated appreciably – a shift that was reflected in improved profitability of the banking sector. Rosstat’s first estimate of 2.3 % GDP growth last year exceeded the high end of most forecasts. Lower economic growth should return this year, however. The hike in value-added taxes and a mild pick-up in the inflation rate are impeding growth in household consumption. Moreover, there are no signs of an across-the-board recovery in fixed investment, meaning net exports will continue to be an important growth driver in 2019. The launch of massive state investment projects in 2020 and 2021 should slightly boost the pace of economic growth, particularly in 2020. BOFIT expects Russian economic growth to settle in at around 1.5 % annually in coming years.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2018)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2018
    GDP growth in Russia is projected to remain below 2 % this year. Growth will decelerate slightly next year to around 1.5 % as long as the oil price stays reasonably close to current levels. Growth of the economy will remain relatively slow as there are too few signs of moving ahead with market-friendly systemic reforms that are needed to foster higher growth. The rapid recovery of Russian imports from a deep slump slowed significantly in spring, and the revival is expected to continue at relatively slow pace during the forecast period.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2018)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2018
    We expect Russian GDP to continue reviving, increasing by nearly 2 % this year. If the oil price remains near its current levels, growth will slow to around 1.5 % p.a. in 2019 and 2020. While growth in Russia’s imports remains fairly brisk, we see the recovery in imports this year slowing substantially from last year’s strong rebound and a bit further thereafter. Growth of the economy will remain relatively slow as proper reforms that would support generation of income and growth are not in sight.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2017)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2017
    Our latest forecast sees Russian GDP rising by 1.5 % p.a. through 2019 on the assumption that oil prices remain roughly at current levels. Growth will be driven by recovering domestic private demand, which also is expected to support a brisk recovery in imports. Russian economy is already growing close to its potential and achieving faster sustainable growth would require major structural reforms that are currently not in sight.