BOFIT Forecast for Russia (2008- )

 

Forecast for the Russian economy is published twice a year. Available also in Finnish by the name BOFIT Venäjä-ennuste.


Recent Submissions

  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2021
    The forecast for the Russian economy has been revised upward on improved prospects for global economic growth and Russian exports. Oil prices and the expectations are also higher than in March. GDP should rise more than 3.5 % this year from last year’s low basis, before settling in 2022−2023 to slightly over 2.5 % p.a. on average. Several uncertainties surround the forecast. There could be unexpected changes in the course of the covid pandemic, global growth and oil prices. The return of international travel and the release of assets piled up by households last year can also significantly affect private consumption. Improved government revenues create opportunities for more generous budget spending.
  • Bank of Finland; Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) (2021)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2021
    We have raised our economic forecast for Russia from last autumn to reflect the rise of oil prices and price expectations. The impacts of covid-19 on Russia were also less severe than anticipated. We see Russia’s GDP recovering from last year’s dip to growth of almost three per cent this year and next. Significant uncertainties continue to surround the outlook. Russia and the rest of the world may struggle longer with covid, oil markets remain sensitive, and, like many economies, the Russian economy is at an inflection point with regards to recovery. Growth will slow after next year, approaching its long-term future trajectory.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2020)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2020
    With the coronavirus pandemic and drop in global commodity prices proving more severe than foreseen in the baseline of our March forecast, we have substantially lowered our outlook for Russian GDP growth. The Russian economy is now expected to contract by 4 % this year and return to moderate growth next year. Russia’s economic prospects remain uncertain as the on-going pandemic and commodity markets could see turns for the worse.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2020)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 1/2020
    We have reduced substantially our forecast for Russian GDP growth to -1 % for this year due to notably lower commodity prices and a weakened outlook for the global economy. We expect Russian GDP to return to moderate growth next year. Higher government spending supports the economy. In the current situation risks are exceptionally large and Russia’s economic development can turn out considerably weaker if the global uncertainty caused by the corona pandemic is prolonged. Given the unlikely prospects for major structural economic reforms, Russia’s longer-term growth potential remains moderate.
  • Bank of Finland; Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (2019)
    BOFIT Forecast for Russia 2/2019
    Russia’s high growth last year was spurred by transient factors, and growth is expected to subside to lower levels this year. The outlook for global economic growth darkened considerably over the summer and is reflected in the performance of the Russian economy. Growth slowed much more in the first half of this year than we anticipated in our April forecast. For all of 2019, we now expect growth of around 1 % p.a. Otherwise, our outlook for the Russian economy in coming years is largely unchanged from earlier forecasts. Stagnating real incomes and decelerating growth rates in household borrowing should supress private consumption growth. Government policies are unlikely to support private investments. In other words, growth in the years ahead will come largely from public consumption and net exports. Investments stipulated by government’s national projects will lift economic growth slightly, especially in 2020. Growth slows towards 1.5 % p.a. at the end of the forecast period.