Browsing Idäntalouksien katsauksia - Review of Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (1992-1999) by Publication Year

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  • Rautava, Jouko (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Vuonna 1998 Venäjän talouspolitiikka ajautui täydelliseen umpikujaan, kun elokuun puolivälissä hallitus ilmoitti ruplan devalvoimisesta ja hallituksen maksukyvyttömyydestä.Elokuun kriisin syynä oli koko 1990-luvun jatkunut holtiton finanssipolitiikka, joka johti valtion kestämättömään velkaantumiseen.Valtiontalouden ongelmien ja muutenkin huonon talouskehityksen taustalla on suuri joukko rakenteellisia ongelmia (verotus, konkurssilainsäädäntö jne.), joita venäläiset päättäjät eivät ole riittävän määrätietoisesti pyrkineet ratkaisemaan.Huonon politiikan seurauksena Venäjälle on syntynyt vaikeasti hahmotettava talous, jonka ominaispiirteitä ovat mm. rahatalouden kehittymättömyys ja palkkarästit.Tilanteen korjaaminen edellyttää kokonaisvaltaista uudistamisstrategiaa ja parhaiten se voi toteutua sopimalla uudesta IMF-ohjelmasta ja aloittamalla sen määrätietoinen toimeenpano.Kaksien vaalien (duuman ja presidentin) alla on kuitenkin vaikea uskoa nykypäättäjien enää sitoutuvan radikaaliin uudistuspolitiikkaan. Asiasanat: Venäjä, talousuudistus, talouspolitiikka, velkakriisi
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Lainela, Seija (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Vuosi 1998 osoittautui Baltian maille pettymykseksi, kun Venäjän syksyllä puhjennut talouskriisi katkaisi maiden pari vuotta jatkuneen nopean kasvun kauden.Venäjän ruplan romahduksen seuraukset tuntuvat niin ulkomaankaupassa ja tuotannossa kuin rahoitussektorilla ja valtiontaloudessa.Tilanteeseen vaikuttavat lisäksi edellisen vuoden ongelmat Kaakkois-Aasian rahoitusmarkkinoilla, jotka ovat tehneet ulkomaiset investoijat varovaisiksi kaikkia kehittyviä markkinoita kohtaan.Suurimmat uhkat Baltian maissa liittyvät talouden ulkoiseen tasapainoon, sillä kaikissa maissa vaihtotaseen vaje on erittäin korkea.Myös toistaiseksi melko kireänä pysynyt finanssipolitiikka voi olla uhattuna hidastuvan talouskehityksen vähentäessä budjetin tuloja. Baltian maiden pienet ja avoimet taloudet ovat pitkälti riippuvaisia kansainvälisten markkinoiden kehityksestä.Mikäli talouskasvu länsimaissa hidastuu, rajoittaa se Baltian maiden vientiä ja ulkomaisen rahoituksen saatavuutta, joka puolestaan vaikuttaa suoraan niiden talouden kasvuun ja mahdollisuuksiin viedä eteenpäin rakenneuudistuksia.Läheneminen Euroopan Unioniin on tullut yhä tärkeämmäksi talouden järjestelmämuutoksia ohjaavaksi tekijäksi.Reformit ovat edenneet nopeasti erityisesti Virossa ja Latviassa. Asiasanat: Baltia, Viro, Latvia, Liettua, talousuudistus
  • Nordman, Tom (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Taloudellinen kasvu jatkui myös viime vuonna Kiinassa vain hieman aikaisempia vuosia vaimeampana huolimatta naapurimaiden ajautumisesta syvään lamaan.Tänä vuonna odotetaan jatkoa kehitykselle.Aasian kriisi on kuitenkin johtanut siihen, että Kiinan vienti on notkahtanut ja myös Kiinan renminbin kurssiin on kohdistunut odotuksia.Kiina on voinut torjua paineet pääomaliikkeidensä sääntelyn, pienen ja rakenteeltaan edullisen ulkomaisen velan, suuren kauppataseen ylijäämän sekä muhkean valuuttavarantonsa turvin.Kiina tarvitsee kuitenkin jatkuvaa korkeata kasvua uusien työpaikkojen luomiseksi niille miljoonille, jotka menettävät elinikäiseksi luulemansa "rautaisen riisikupin" kun valtion tappiollisia yrityksiä saneerataan.Kasvua uhkaa myös valtion liikepankkien heikko tila, joka johtuu pitkään jatkuneesta kannattamattomien valtionyritysten rahoittamisesta.Läntisen mittapuun mukaan pankit ovatkin varattomia.Niiden saneeraaminen voi kuitenkin edetä vain rinnan valtion yritysten saneerauksen kanssa.Jo viime vuonna vientikysynnän heikkeneminen korvattiin julkisen sektorin infrastruktuuri-investoinnein, joita on jatkettu tänä vuonna.Valtion velka ei aseta tälle esteitä, mutta jatkossa joudutaan käyttämään valtion varoja pankkisektorin tervehdyttämiseen sekä valtionyrityksiltä siirtyvien sosiaalimenojen rahoittamiseen.Siksi on Kiinan kannalta tärkeää, että kotimainen kulutuskysyntä elpyy ja uusien työpaikkojen luomiseksi tarvittavat investoinnit käynnistyvät.Kehittyäkseen Kiina tarvitsee vahvan ja kasvavan ei-valtiollisen sektorin. Asiasanat: Kiina, Aasian kriisi, renminbi, valuuttakurssi, velka, valtionpankit, valtion yritykset, talousuudistukset
  • Korhonen, Iikka (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Taloudellinen kasvu hidastui useissa Keski- ja Itä-Euroopan maissa viime vuonna, pääasiassa Länsi-Euroopan hitaahkon talouskasvun takia.Talouskasvun hidastumiseen on liittynyt työttömyyden nousu useimmissa maissa.Useissa KIE-maissa inflaatio hidastui selvästi viime vuonna, mutta oli silti selvästi nopeampaa kuin esimerkiksi EU-maissa.Lähes kaikissa KIE-maissa julkinen sektori oli viime vuonna alijäämäinen, mutta monet maat onnistuivat supistamaan vajeitaan edellisestä vuo-desta.Ulkoinen tasapaino puolestaan heikkeni useimmissa KIEmaissa.Heikko ulkoinen kysyntä ja valuuttojen reaalinen vahvistuminen hillitsivät vientiä. Asiasanat: Keski- ja Itä-Eurooppa, talouskehitys, inflaatio, rahapolitiikka, finanssipolitiikka
  • Suomen Pankki; Bank of Finland; Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT); Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (1999)
    Suomen Pankki. Idäntalouksien katsauksia 1/1999
  • Sutela, Pekka (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
  • Evstigneev, Vladimir (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    The paper presents a hierarchy of the rational investor's counterfactual portfolios that consist of treasury bills of the three largest CIS countries - Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, in case some degree of at least negative integration is achieved there.The author performs an adjustment of the measure of relative attractiveness of various counterfactual two-country and three-country portfolios for the estimated opening-up shock (that consists in a dramatic re-allocation of funds, given the optimal portfolio composition).It has been found out that there is only one counterfactual optimal portfolio that is realistically feasible.This would comprise the government-issued papers from all the three countries considered and would imply the international rational investor's following a mildly risk-averse investment strategy.Importantly, an overhaul of exchange-rate and monetary policy is unnecessary, which fact augments the incentives for the countries involved, even despite their political resentment. In the Annex, the author undertakes an attempt to demonstrate that the recent collapse of the Russian treasury bills market can be explained in terms of the derivatives market analysis. Keywords: optimal investment portfolio; financial integration; economy in transition; government bonds market; derivative instruments; Russian treasury bills
  • Loehmus, Uelle; Demekas, Dimitri G. (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    This paper reviews the theoretical methodology on economic indicators, and constructs an aggregate index of coincident economic indicators for Estonia.The index tracks economic activity fairly well for the sample period.The evolution of the index in the first eight months of this year suggests that the pace of economic expansion in Estonia is slowing down significantly: from a growth rate of 10.5 percent in the first eight months of 1997, to 6.0 percent in the same period of 1998.
  • Holmberg, Saga (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    This paper surveys the literature on ownership structure and corporate governance in Russia.The market structure is compared to traditional German and Anglo-Saxon market models.We argue that the Russian market constitutes a dynamic hybrid of the two models, i.e. its direction of development has yet to be resolved.As several current cases indicate, the risk of unfair treatment of minority shareholders in Russian companies is considerable.While we acknowledge that both the legal framework and the incentives of the management are equally important in protecting minority shareholder rights, the scope of the paper is deliberately limited to discussion of the legal framework.The information disclosure requirements of Russian companies are compared with the US requirements.Also the regulatory bodies in the two countries are discussed.Some differences between International Accounting Standards and Russian accounting practice are also reviewed.The final part of the paper is dedicated to the recent reforms proposed by the Russian government regarding disclosure and protection of minority shareholder rights. Keywords: ownership structure, shareholders, information disclosure, FCSM, Russia
  • Solanko, Laura; Tekoniemi, Merja (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    This paper examines two regions of the Russian Federation, Novgorod and Pskov, to compare how differences in economic policy affect economic development.Despite common histories, geography and natural resources, Novgorod committed early on in reform to policies that would attract foreign investments in production. Pskov, on the other hand, drew back into protectionist policies until it was clear that efforts to increase domestic and foreign investment levels were needed.Using available statistics, we consider the reasoning that led these regions down such distinctly different economic policy paths. Keywords: Russia, regions, economic policy
  • Pesonen, Hanna; Korhonen, Iikka (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1998
    This paper assesses empirically the lag between changes in money supply and inflation in Russia during the economic transition.In line with the previous literature, we find that money supply changes affect inflation with a fairly short lag.In addition to this, we find tentative evidence for some lengthening of the lag as the transition has progressed.However, these results are not very robust, and the lags that are found to be significant are generally shorter than those found in the earlier literature. Keywords: Inflation, monetary policy, Russia
  • Solanko, Laura (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1998
    This paper surveys theoretical literature on fiscal federalism, noting several concepts useful in understanding features typical to countries in transition.We argue that some of the concepts of standard fiscal federalism do not apply to transition economics as they do elsewhere.For example, normally undesirable inter-regional competition may actually benefit the transition process by forcing regions to alter their patterns of public spending.We further suggest that practices such as in-kind transfers may carry additional benefits in a transition environment.The paper makes extensive use of observations from Russia's system of inter-governmental relations. Keywords: fiscal federalism, transitional countries, Russia
  • Korhonen, Iikka (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1998
    This paper briefly examines the sustainability of the Russian fiscal policy.Russia has run quite large general government deficits during the transition years.Some simple simulations show that the present policies are not sustainable in the medium-term, unless economic growth accelerates significantly and real interest rate declines.If these positive developments do not materialize, Russia must tighten her fiscal policy. Keywords: Fiscal policy, public debt, Russia
  • Korhonen, Iikka (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1998
    We test the informational efficiency of the three Baltic stock exchanges.It was found that the price indices used in testing are not even weak-form efficient, ie past returns can be used to predict future returns.It was also found that the time series of daily returns clearly exhibit autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. We also test Granger causality amongst the Baltic stock exchanges and from three stock exchanges outside the region.Outside the region only US market seems to affect prices in the Baltic stock exchanges.Inside the region Tallinn and Riga stock exchanges have clear effects on Lithuanian stock market, but Lithuanian market does not affect the other two. Keywords: Baltic countries, stock markets, efficiency
  • Kosterna, Urszula (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 2/1998
    Accession to the EU is one of the biggest challenges for the CEECs in the coming years.Sound and sustainable public finances are crucial for the transformation towards a market economy to be continued (completed), as well as for the country's ability to comply with the membership requirements.As the long-term macroeconomic stability depends heavily on sound and sustainable fiscal balances, the structural reforms that will strengthen public finances should be a task of a highest priority for applicant countries. The measurement of the budgetary position in transition economies presents important difficulties, as the quality and comparability of statistics is still poor, and as those less visible forms of fiscal deficit (i.e. the quasi-fiscal deficit and the contingent deferred fiscal deficit) are clearly linked with the postponements in structural reforms. Furthermore, there is unquestioned interdependence between fiscal policy (budgetary aggregates) and the transition process (changes in macro- and microeconomic performance of the country).Indeed, one can hardly expect a successful balanced-budget policy during the entire journey from plan to market.To the extent that fiscal imbalances reflect the costs of necessary adjustments, they may be temporarily justified (as 'transitional' deficits).Thus, the most difficult issue in designing and implementing fiscal policy during transition is choosing a proper balance between the need to achieve macroeconomic stability (which require fiscal discipline) and the need to pursue structural, market-oriented (and fiscally costly) reforms.In practice, in the short run, this can lead to conflicts between quality and quantity of fiscal adjustment. When the quality of fiscal adjustment is poor, the current 'good' quantities are not the evidence of sound public finances.Slow progress in structural reforms, which is not fully reflected in current budgetary aggregates, poses a risk of future fiscal imbalances and constitutes a threat to macroeconomic stabilization and sustainable growth.Therefore, further progress in restructuring the economy and reducing the role that the state plays in production and resource allocation remain the main challenges for sustainable fiscal position in transition economies. The current levels of government spending in the relatively poor transition countries are much too excessive.The need to finance high government spending (strongly dominated by current transfers) makes impossible the reduction of the overall heavy fiscal burden on the economy.Such a burden creates a strong barrier to fast growth and leads to the development of the underground economy. With this unfavourable current situation any pressure on the expenditure side will deteriorate fiscal position.Such pressures will derive from the continuous progress in structural reform as well as from the process of the preparation to accession. As discussed in this paper, the budget deficit, as usually measured, has important shortcomings as an indicator of sound and sustainable public finances in transition economies.But this does not mean that fiscal imbalances are the matter of irrelevance. Instead, the medium term reform programs should address the need to reduce the fiscal deficit, but this goal can be achieved only by reshaping government expenditure with priorities given to productive activities (such as investment in infrastructure and in human capital), together with reducing the size of public spending. Keywords: budget, deficit, European Union, fiscal policy
  • Pautola, Niina (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1998
    The theoretical literature suggests four criteria for judging whether regions should form a currency area: mobility of labour and capital, flexibility of prices and wages, openness to trade and diversity of production.Regions that have relatively closed economies, narrow product ranges, strong price and wage rigidities, and low external mobility of labour and capital should not join monetary union, but should instead retain exchange-rate flexibility. According to Maastricht Treaty, countries wishing to join EMU must fulfil the convergence criteria on interest rate levels, exchange rates, price stability and public debt.Several studies indicate that neither current EU-members nor the Central and Eastern European countries fully satisfy Mundell's criteria for optimal currency area (OCA) or EMU convergence criteria.Therefore, a European monetary union might run more smoothly if limited to a subset of EU members. European Union is less of an optimal currency area than, for example, the US, due to lower factor mobility, more variable real exchange rates and slower response to aggregate shocks.Regarding to convergence criteria, it seems that the majoriy of the EU-countries satisfy the criteria to price stability whereas more efforts are needed where public debt is concerned.In respect of Central and Eastern European countries, the successful conclusion of systematic transformation and market oriented structural reforms is essential before participation in EMU.At present, countries should concentrate on maintaining their commitment to stabilization and on development further modern monetary and fiscal policies. Furthermore, they must complete financial sector reform, and liberalize capital movements.In addition, their central banks have to become fully independent and have price stability as primary objective.Actions should be taken to tackle factors that hinder the efficiency of monetary policy e.g. the volatility of money demand, the poor degree of privatization and competition in the banking sector, the non-existence of a enforcable bankruptcy law, the lack of development of money and securities markets and the problem "bad loans" in the banking sector. Endogineity of OCA criteria argues that suitability of European countries, both Western and Eastern, for EMU cannot be judged on the basis of historical data since the structure of these economies is likely to change in EMU.The more countries integrate with each other, the more highly correlated will be their business cycles. Therefore, if a country, failing the OCA criteria now, goes ahead and joins EMU anyway, its trade linkages and income correlation with other EMU members are likely to rise as a consequence of entry into EMU. Keywords: EMU, OCA, integration, transition, Central and Eastern Europe, enlargement
  • Dmitriyev, Mikhail; Matovnikov, Mikhail; Mikhailov, Leonid; Sycheva, Lyudmila (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 7/1998
    The study analyses developments in the structure of Moscow banks' balance sheets, returns and costs of their different banking operations, as well as the banks' profitability, liquidity and capital adequacy.The analysis covers the years 1995-1997 when Russia was attempting to pursue a macroeconomic policy aimed at monetary stabilisation.An assessment is also given of the problems which were evolving in the Russian banking system before banks were hit by Russia's financial crisis in summer 1998. The analysis itself presents rather detailed data on the balance sheets and banking operations of a large sample of banks registered in Moscow; at the peak, the sample consisted of 688 banks. Keywords: Russian banks, bank credit, Treasury bills, deposits, interest rates, bank regulation
  • Äimä, Kustaa (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1998
    The aim of this article is to establish the level of independence that each of the Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian central banks enjoy according to law and in practice.The rationale behind this is the well-known both empirically and theoretically verified relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation rate arising from the increased monetary policy credibility that is possible to obtain by strengthening the position of the central bank (CB).In this paper two different indices of central bank independence are used to measure the level of legal CBI of the Baltic central banks, namely Grilli - Masciandro - Tabellini (1991) and Cukierman (1992).Ex-post turnover rates of central bank governors are then calculated as an indicator of actual CBI or more precisely the lack of it. The main findings of the study are firstly the results of the indexation process.It is safe to say that the Baltic central banks have been endowned with highly independent legal positions. Furthermore, there are no truly significant variations between the three countries in this respect.Secondly, a quite different picture arises when actual CBI is studied.The calculated turnover rate of the Lithuanian CB governors is far higher than the comparabale figure for Estonia and especially Latvia.Even though the time frame used in this study is rather short for obvious reasons the Lithuanian rate has to be taken as a sign of non- satisfactory level of autonomy of the CB.Apart from measuring the level of CBI this paper concentrates on the credibility of monetary and exchange rate policies pursued in the Baltic countries in recent years.It is argued that the reasons for the lower than desired credibility of the Lithuanian monetary system compared to Latvia or Estonia are the low level of actual CBI and the political nature and instability of monetary decision making in the country. Keywords: Baltic countries, central bank independence, policy credibility
  • Tekoniemi, Merja (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 3/1998
    Neuvostoliiton hajottua keskuksen ja alueiden väliset suhteet alkoivat etsiä uusia muotoja alueilta lähteneiden aloitteiden pohjalta.Käytännössä vallan- ja vastuunjakokysymyksiä ei kuitenkaan pystytty heti selkeästi ratkaisemaan.Sekä federaatiosopimus että perustuslaki toivat keskuksen ja alueiden välisiin suhteisiin laillisen perustan, mutta eivät ratkaisseet useita alueyksiköiden väliseen hierarkiaan liittyviä kysymyksiä. Tämä on johtanut alueiden keskinäiseen kilpailuun keskushallinnon myöntämistä etuuksista.Keskuksen ja alueiden välisen tulonjaon osalta tätä on edesauttanut Venäjän epäselvä tulonjakopolitiikka. Alueiden keskinäinen yhteistyö on maantieteellisesti suhteellisen laajaa, mutta käytännön tasolla tehotonta.Keskushallinto on luonut aluesuhteita lähinnä uudistusmielisten kuvernöörien ja presidentin alue-edustajien kautta.Vuonna 1997 ns. vallanjakosopimusten solmiminen nopeutui.Niiden kussakin tapauksessa erilainen sisältö vahvisti edelleen alueiden suurempaa eriarvoisuutta.Eriarvoisuus ei ole ongelma sinänsä, mikäli sille on selkeät perusteet. Nykyisessä tilanteessa olisi tärkeää täsmentää keskuksen ja alueiden välistä vastuun ja vallanjakoa, saada tasoitettua alueiden välisiä suuria elintasoeroja ja edistää maan säilymistä yhtenäisenä kokonaisuutena. Asiasanat: Venäjä, alueet, fiskaalifederalismi
  • Popova, Tatiana (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 7/1998
    The article provides an overall review of different aspects of financial-industrial groups (FIGs) in Russia.The review first explores the developments during the Russian economic reform that lead to the emergence of FIGs, highlights the legal basis and actual reasons for creating them, and gives an assessment of various elements of the state's policy to promote FIGs.The article further provides aggregate information on and a full register of FIGs created along the official path, and characterises some of the large de facto FIGs that were formed outside official policies and procedures.A judgement to focus the state's FIG policy is also given. Keywords: financial-industrial groups, FIGs, Russian banks, Russian industry, restructuring, oligarchs