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  • Korhonen, Iikka (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Taloudellinen kasvu hidastui useissa Keski- ja Itä-Euroopan maissa viime vuonna, pääasiassa Länsi-Euroopan hitaahkon talouskasvun takia.Talouskasvun hidastumiseen on liittynyt työttömyyden nousu useimmissa maissa.Useissa KIE-maissa inflaatio hidastui selvästi viime vuonna, mutta oli silti selvästi nopeampaa kuin esimerkiksi EU-maissa.Lähes kaikissa KIE-maissa julkinen sektori oli viime vuonna alijäämäinen, mutta monet maat onnistuivat supistamaan vajeitaan edellisestä vuo-desta.Ulkoinen tasapaino puolestaan heikkeni useimmissa KIEmaissa.Heikko ulkoinen kysyntä ja valuuttojen reaalinen vahvistuminen hillitsivät vientiä. Asiasanat: Keski- ja Itä-Eurooppa, talouskehitys, inflaatio, rahapolitiikka, finanssipolitiikka
  • Rautava, Jouko (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Vuonna 1998 Venäjän talouspolitiikka ajautui täydelliseen umpikujaan, kun elokuun puolivälissä hallitus ilmoitti ruplan devalvoimisesta ja hallituksen maksukyvyttömyydestä.Elokuun kriisin syynä oli koko 1990-luvun jatkunut holtiton finanssipolitiikka, joka johti valtion kestämättömään velkaantumiseen.Valtiontalouden ongelmien ja muutenkin huonon talouskehityksen taustalla on suuri joukko rakenteellisia ongelmia (verotus, konkurssilainsäädäntö jne.), joita venäläiset päättäjät eivät ole riittävän määrätietoisesti pyrkineet ratkaisemaan.Huonon politiikan seurauksena Venäjälle on syntynyt vaikeasti hahmotettava talous, jonka ominaispiirteitä ovat mm. rahatalouden kehittymättömyys ja palkkarästit.Tilanteen korjaaminen edellyttää kokonaisvaltaista uudistamisstrategiaa ja parhaiten se voi toteutua sopimalla uudesta IMF-ohjelmasta ja aloittamalla sen määrätietoinen toimeenpano.Kaksien vaalien (duuman ja presidentin) alla on kuitenkin vaikea uskoa nykypäättäjien enää sitoutuvan radikaaliin uudistuspolitiikkaan. Asiasanat: Venäjä, talousuudistus, talouspolitiikka, velkakriisi
  • Suomen Pankki; Bank of Finland; Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT); Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT) (1999)
    Suomen Pankki. Idäntalouksien katsauksia 1/1999
  • Nordman, Tom (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Taloudellinen kasvu jatkui myös viime vuonna Kiinassa vain hieman aikaisempia vuosia vaimeampana huolimatta naapurimaiden ajautumisesta syvään lamaan.Tänä vuonna odotetaan jatkoa kehitykselle.Aasian kriisi on kuitenkin johtanut siihen, että Kiinan vienti on notkahtanut ja myös Kiinan renminbin kurssiin on kohdistunut odotuksia.Kiina on voinut torjua paineet pääomaliikkeidensä sääntelyn, pienen ja rakenteeltaan edullisen ulkomaisen velan, suuren kauppataseen ylijäämän sekä muhkean valuuttavarantonsa turvin.Kiina tarvitsee kuitenkin jatkuvaa korkeata kasvua uusien työpaikkojen luomiseksi niille miljoonille, jotka menettävät elinikäiseksi luulemansa "rautaisen riisikupin" kun valtion tappiollisia yrityksiä saneerataan.Kasvua uhkaa myös valtion liikepankkien heikko tila, joka johtuu pitkään jatkuneesta kannattamattomien valtionyritysten rahoittamisesta.Läntisen mittapuun mukaan pankit ovatkin varattomia.Niiden saneeraaminen voi kuitenkin edetä vain rinnan valtion yritysten saneerauksen kanssa.Jo viime vuonna vientikysynnän heikkeneminen korvattiin julkisen sektorin infrastruktuuri-investoinnein, joita on jatkettu tänä vuonna.Valtion velka ei aseta tälle esteitä, mutta jatkossa joudutaan käyttämään valtion varoja pankkisektorin tervehdyttämiseen sekä valtionyrityksiltä siirtyvien sosiaalimenojen rahoittamiseen.Siksi on Kiinan kannalta tärkeää, että kotimainen kulutuskysyntä elpyy ja uusien työpaikkojen luomiseksi tarvittavat investoinnit käynnistyvät.Kehittyäkseen Kiina tarvitsee vahvan ja kasvavan ei-valtiollisen sektorin. Asiasanat: Kiina, Aasian kriisi, renminbi, valuuttakurssi, velka, valtionpankit, valtion yritykset, talousuudistukset
  • Sutela, Pekka (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
  • Korhonen, Iikka; Lainela, Seija (1999)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 1/1999
    Vuosi 1998 osoittautui Baltian maille pettymykseksi, kun Venäjän syksyllä puhjennut talouskriisi katkaisi maiden pari vuotta jatkuneen nopean kasvun kauden.Venäjän ruplan romahduksen seuraukset tuntuvat niin ulkomaankaupassa ja tuotannossa kuin rahoitussektorilla ja valtiontaloudessa.Tilanteeseen vaikuttavat lisäksi edellisen vuoden ongelmat Kaakkois-Aasian rahoitusmarkkinoilla, jotka ovat tehneet ulkomaiset investoijat varovaisiksi kaikkia kehittyviä markkinoita kohtaan.Suurimmat uhkat Baltian maissa liittyvät talouden ulkoiseen tasapainoon, sillä kaikissa maissa vaihtotaseen vaje on erittäin korkea.Myös toistaiseksi melko kireänä pysynyt finanssipolitiikka voi olla uhattuna hidastuvan talouskehityksen vähentäessä budjetin tuloja. Baltian maiden pienet ja avoimet taloudet ovat pitkälti riippuvaisia kansainvälisten markkinoiden kehityksestä.Mikäli talouskasvu länsimaissa hidastuu, rajoittaa se Baltian maiden vientiä ja ulkomaisen rahoituksen saatavuutta, joka puolestaan vaikuttaa suoraan niiden talouden kasvuun ja mahdollisuuksiin viedä eteenpäin rakenneuudistuksia.Läheneminen Euroopan Unioniin on tullut yhä tärkeämmäksi talouden järjestelmämuutoksia ohjaavaksi tekijäksi.Reformit ovat edenneet nopeasti erityisesti Virossa ja Latviassa. Asiasanat: Baltia, Viro, Latvia, Liettua, talousuudistus
  • Dmitriyev, Mikhail; Matovnikov, Mikhail; Mikhailov, Leonid; Sycheva, Lyudmila (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 7/1998
    The study analyses developments in the structure of Moscow banks' balance sheets, returns and costs of their different banking operations, as well as the banks' profitability, liquidity and capital adequacy.The analysis covers the years 1995-1997 when Russia was attempting to pursue a macroeconomic policy aimed at monetary stabilisation.An assessment is also given of the problems which were evolving in the Russian banking system before banks were hit by Russia's financial crisis in summer 1998. The analysis itself presents rather detailed data on the balance sheets and banking operations of a large sample of banks registered in Moscow; at the peak, the sample consisted of 688 banks. Keywords: Russian banks, bank credit, Treasury bills, deposits, interest rates, bank regulation
  • Popova, Tatiana (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 7/1998
    The article provides an overall review of different aspects of financial-industrial groups (FIGs) in Russia.The review first explores the developments during the Russian economic reform that lead to the emergence of FIGs, highlights the legal basis and actual reasons for creating them, and gives an assessment of various elements of the state's policy to promote FIGs.The article further provides aggregate information on and a full register of FIGs created along the official path, and characterises some of the large de facto FIGs that were formed outside official policies and procedures.A judgement to focus the state's FIG policy is also given. Keywords: financial-industrial groups, FIGs, Russian banks, Russian industry, restructuring, oligarchs
  • Holmberg, Saga (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    This paper surveys the literature on ownership structure and corporate governance in Russia.The market structure is compared to traditional German and Anglo-Saxon market models.We argue that the Russian market constitutes a dynamic hybrid of the two models, i.e. its direction of development has yet to be resolved.As several current cases indicate, the risk of unfair treatment of minority shareholders in Russian companies is considerable.While we acknowledge that both the legal framework and the incentives of the management are equally important in protecting minority shareholder rights, the scope of the paper is deliberately limited to discussion of the legal framework.The information disclosure requirements of Russian companies are compared with the US requirements.Also the regulatory bodies in the two countries are discussed.Some differences between International Accounting Standards and Russian accounting practice are also reviewed.The final part of the paper is dedicated to the recent reforms proposed by the Russian government regarding disclosure and protection of minority shareholder rights. Keywords: ownership structure, shareholders, information disclosure, FCSM, Russia
  • Evstigneev, Vladimir (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    The paper presents a hierarchy of the rational investor's counterfactual portfolios that consist of treasury bills of the three largest CIS countries - Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, in case some degree of at least negative integration is achieved there.The author performs an adjustment of the measure of relative attractiveness of various counterfactual two-country and three-country portfolios for the estimated opening-up shock (that consists in a dramatic re-allocation of funds, given the optimal portfolio composition).It has been found out that there is only one counterfactual optimal portfolio that is realistically feasible.This would comprise the government-issued papers from all the three countries considered and would imply the international rational investor's following a mildly risk-averse investment strategy.Importantly, an overhaul of exchange-rate and monetary policy is unnecessary, which fact augments the incentives for the countries involved, even despite their political resentment. In the Annex, the author undertakes an attempt to demonstrate that the recent collapse of the Russian treasury bills market can be explained in terms of the derivatives market analysis. Keywords: optimal investment portfolio; financial integration; economy in transition; government bonds market; derivative instruments; Russian treasury bills
  • Loehmus, Uelle; Demekas, Dimitri G. (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    This paper reviews the theoretical methodology on economic indicators, and constructs an aggregate index of coincident economic indicators for Estonia.The index tracks economic activity fairly well for the sample period.The evolution of the index in the first eight months of this year suggests that the pace of economic expansion in Estonia is slowing down significantly: from a growth rate of 10.5 percent in the first eight months of 1997, to 6.0 percent in the same period of 1998.
  • Solanko, Laura; Tekoniemi, Merja (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 6/1998
    This paper examines two regions of the Russian Federation, Novgorod and Pskov, to compare how differences in economic policy affect economic development.Despite common histories, geography and natural resources, Novgorod committed early on in reform to policies that would attract foreign investments in production. Pskov, on the other hand, drew back into protectionist policies until it was clear that efforts to increase domestic and foreign investment levels were needed.Using available statistics, we consider the reasoning that led these regions down such distinctly different economic policy paths. Keywords: Russia, regions, economic policy
  • Nordman, Tom (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1998
    The Asian financial crisis has engulfed most of the region's countries, with the notable exception of China, which has maintained a stable dollar exchange rate.However, China's situation is being widely discussed, some commentators claim that China will eventually be forced to devalue while others maintain that China neither needs to nor would gain from a devaluation. China, not yet a fully open economy, has the means and resources to withstand pressures against its currency.Reserves remain comfortable and the trade surplus is even growing as China's exports to the United States and Europe continue to grow at a healthy pace although exports to other Asian countries have slumped.Domestic economic activity is recovering from a slowdown as public expenditure is rising.However, rapid reform of China's state-owned industries and bad-debt ridden state-owned commercial banks may be endangered if foreign direct investment fails to pick up the slack in the labour market as stateowned industries and government ministries shed millions of workers.Chinese authorities might be tempted to ease the pressure through a devaluation of the renminbi.However, China's exports have an import content of 50 percent, so a small devaluation would make little difference, and a large devaluation would probably trigger a new round of competitive devaluations among the region's countries, in the end leaving everyone worse off than before.For the time being China is therefore best served by maintaining a stable exchange rate, but in the longer term China may have to reconsider the wisdom of its peg to the US dollar. Keywords: China, Asian crisis, devaluation, exports, trade surplus, exchange reserves, renminbi, reform
  • Korhonen, Iikka (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1998
    This study examines how inflation and money supply growth have interacted in Russia.It covers the period from January 1992, when price liberalization was introduced, to December 1997.An error correction model includes an error correction term (ie deviation from long-run equilibrium) extracted from the estimated long-run money demand function. When the error correction term was included, it was found that much of the effect of monetary expansion on inflation was felt within three months.Further, the error correction term is shown to have a statistically significant coefficient with the correct sign in the money demand equation, implying that deviations from long-run equilibrium contain useful information on future monetary growth. The model reinforces the observation that monetary policy inevitably plays the key role in reducing inflation.Thus, if a reduction in inflation is desired, the central bank may find it impossible to reconcile this goal with other obligations, for example, with financing of the central government budget via large deficits. Keywords: inflation, models, Russia
  • Solanko, Laura (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1998
    This paper surveys theoretical literature on fiscal federalism, noting several concepts useful in understanding features typical to countries in transition.We argue that some of the concepts of standard fiscal federalism do not apply to transition economics as they do elsewhere.For example, normally undesirable inter-regional competition may actually benefit the transition process by forcing regions to alter their patterns of public spending.We further suggest that practices such as in-kind transfers may carry additional benefits in a transition environment.The paper makes extensive use of observations from Russia's system of inter-governmental relations. Keywords: fiscal federalism, transitional countries, Russia
  • Korhonen, Iikka (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 5/1998
    We test the informational efficiency of the three Baltic stock exchanges.It was found that the price indices used in testing are not even weak-form efficient, ie past returns can be used to predict future returns.It was also found that the time series of daily returns clearly exhibit autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. We also test Granger causality amongst the Baltic stock exchanges and from three stock exchanges outside the region.Outside the region only US market seems to affect prices in the Baltic stock exchanges.Inside the region Tallinn and Riga stock exchanges have clear effects on Lithuanian stock market, but Lithuanian market does not affect the other two. Keywords: Baltic countries, stock markets, efficiency
  • Äimä, Kustaa (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1998
    The aim of this article is to establish the level of independence that each of the Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian central banks enjoy according to law and in practice.The rationale behind this is the well-known both empirically and theoretically verified relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation rate arising from the increased monetary policy credibility that is possible to obtain by strengthening the position of the central bank (CB).In this paper two different indices of central bank independence are used to measure the level of legal CBI of the Baltic central banks, namely Grilli - Masciandro - Tabellini (1991) and Cukierman (1992).Ex-post turnover rates of central bank governors are then calculated as an indicator of actual CBI or more precisely the lack of it. The main findings of the study are firstly the results of the indexation process.It is safe to say that the Baltic central banks have been endowned with highly independent legal positions. Furthermore, there are no truly significant variations between the three countries in this respect.Secondly, a quite different picture arises when actual CBI is studied.The calculated turnover rate of the Lithuanian CB governors is far higher than the comparabale figure for Estonia and especially Latvia.Even though the time frame used in this study is rather short for obvious reasons the Lithuanian rate has to be taken as a sign of non- satisfactory level of autonomy of the CB.Apart from measuring the level of CBI this paper concentrates on the credibility of monetary and exchange rate policies pursued in the Baltic countries in recent years.It is argued that the reasons for the lower than desired credibility of the Lithuanian monetary system compared to Latvia or Estonia are the low level of actual CBI and the political nature and instability of monetary decision making in the country. Keywords: Baltic countries, central bank independence, policy credibility
  • Pesonen, Hanna (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1998
    This paper examines the driving forces in stock market fluctuations in Russia.We found no evidence of a causal relationship running from the emerging stock markets of Asia to Russia.Instead, US and Japanese share price movements seem to have strong implications for Russian share prices. Keywords: Russia, stock markets, causality testing
  • Pesonen, Hanna; Korhonen, Iikka (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 4/1998
    This paper assesses empirically the lag between changes in money supply and inflation in Russia during the economic transition.In line with the previous literature, we find that money supply changes affect inflation with a fairly short lag.In addition to this, we find tentative evidence for some lengthening of the lag as the transition has progressed.However, these results are not very robust, and the lags that are found to be significant are generally shorter than those found in the earlier literature. Keywords: Inflation, monetary policy, Russia
  • Pautola, Niina (1998)
    IDÄNTALOUKSIEN KATSAUKSIA. REVIEW OF ECONOMIES IN TRANSITION 3/1998
    Kokonaistuotanto kasvoi viime vuonna nopeasti kaikissa Baltian maissa.Virossa tuotannon kasvu oli niin nopeaa, että useat tarkkailijat huolestuivat maan talouden ylikuumenemisesta. Inflaatio laski kaikissa maissa edellisestä vuodesta, mutta Virossa kuluttajahintojen nousu kiihtyi vuoden loppua kohden. Ulkomaankauppa oli edelleen selvästi alijäämäistä kaikissa Baltian maissa.Tämä on merkinnyt myös suuria vaihtotaseiden alijäämiä. Kaikissa Baltian maissa pankkien luotonanto kasvoi viime vuonna selvästi, mutta nopeinta kasvu oli Virossa, jossa keskuspankki kiristi pankkeja koskevia määräyksiä loppuvuodesta hillitäkseen lainanantoa.Viime vuonna yksityistämisen päähuomio keskittyi suuriin yrityksiin. Asiasanat: Viro, Latvia, Liettua, talouskehitys, inflaatio, ulkomaankauppa