Uusimmat julkaisut

  • Faryna, Oleksandr; Simola, Heli (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2018
    This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation period, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience no-table changes. We find CIS countries highly sensitive to global and regional shocks, with that sensitivity increasing after the global financial crisis. CIS countries show strongest responses to output shocks originating in the US, Russia and within the region itself, but their sensitivity to euro area shocks also increases substantially. Despite growing trade relations with China, the responses of CIS countries to output shocks originating in China are still relatively moderate.
  • Tukiainen, Janne; Takalo, Tuomas; Hulkkonen, Topi (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2018
    We exploit a regression discontinuity design to provide causal evidence of the relative age effect (RAE) on a long-run adult age outcome: Political selection. We find strong evidence of the RAE in politics in Finland. However, the effect is heterogeneous: We find that male candidates born early in the calendar year have a significantly higher probability of getting elected to the parliament but no similar RAE applies to female candidates nor to municipal elections. Moreover, this effect only takes place in the most competitive parliamentary districts and is present only for some parties. We also find that in all the groups where the RAE does not exist, early-born candidates are under-represented suggesting attrition of talent in the candidate placement. Overall, our results show that seemingly artificial cutoffs imposed by the government have persistent consequences even on the selection to the highest positions of power within a society.
  • Fungáčová, Zuzana; Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2018
    Considering the evidence that China’s five largest state-owned banks (the Big Five) suffer from low cost efficiency, this paper decomposes overall efficiency of Chinese banks into: persistent efficiency and transient efficiency components. Low persistent efficiency reflects structural problems, while low transient efficiency is associated with short-term problems. Using the model of Kumbhakar, Lien and Hardaker (2014) based on the stochastic frontier approach, we measure persistent efficiency and transient efficiency for a large sample of 166 Chinese banks over the period 2008–2015. In line with existing evidence, we find a lower average cost efficiency of Big Five banks compared to other Chinese banks. It is almost entirely due to low persistent cost efficiency. Big Five transient efficiency is similar to other Chinese banks. Our findings support the view that major structural reforms are needed to enhance the efficiency of China’s Big Five banks.
  • Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2018
    This paper analyses the effect of bank profitability on economic growth. While policymakers have shown major concerns for low levels of bank profitability, there are no empirical studies on the growth effects of bank profitability. To fill this gap, we investigate the impact of bank profitability on economic growth using a sample of 133 countries during the period 1999–2013 with several empirical approaches. Our first major conclusion is that a high current level of bank profitability contributes positively to economic growth. Our second conclusion is that the past level of bank profitability exerts a negative influence on economic growth leading to the absence of significance for the overall bank profitability. Hence, the positive impact of bank profitability on economic growth is short-lived. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks, including those using alternative measures for profitability and growth.
  • Simola, Heli (MIT Press, 2018)
    Asian Economic Papers 2 ; Summer 2018
    China has been a key participant in international fragmentation of production during the last decades. China has specialized mainly in labor-intensive manufacturing, but is striving to shift toward higher value-added production stages and production. At the same time, during recent decades, services have contributed increasing shares of valued-added to products produced through global production chains. For this reason we examine the evolving role of Chinese services in international production chains. Our results suggest that Chinese services account for an increasingly large share of production for the domestic market, and more recently have made increasing contributions to foreign production chains, which suggests that Chinese production is shifting to activities in production chains that are associated with higher value-added.