Uusimmat julkaisut

  • Pham, Tho; Talavera, Oleksandr; Tsapin, Andriy (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2018
    This paper exploits the geopolitical conflict in Eastern Ukraine as a negative shock to banking sector and examines the shock transmission. We find that banks with more loans in the conflict areas during the pre-conflict period face a higher level of bad loans in other markets after the shock. This effect is stronger in the regional markets which are closer to the conflict zone. We also find evidence for the “flight to headquarters” effect in post-conflict lending. Specifically, while more affected banks tend to cut their credit supply, the larger contraction is observed in regional markets located farther from headquarters.
  • Tölö, Eero; Miettinen, Paavo (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2018
    We examine bank capital shocks using a recent new approach based on non-normal errors in vector autoregressive models. Using a sample of 14 European economies over January 2004 through March 2018 we identify two distinct classes of bank capital shocks, capital tightening shocks, and bank profitability shocks. We find that both bank capital shocks frequently lead to changes in lending volume and interest rates for new loans. In contrast to some recent similar studies, we find less evidence for impact on production. Bank capital shocks have further effects on the substitution between the bank and market-based financing and on credit allocation across different borrower sectors. Policymakers may find these results useful when considering counter-cyclical adjustments to the bank capital requirements.
  • Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta; Viren, Matti (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2018
    In this paper, we examine how professional forecasters’ expectations and expectation uncertainty have reacted to the ECB’s interest rate decisions and non-conventional monetary policy measures during the period 1999-2017. The analysis makes use of a conventional dif-in-dif type set up with different time series tools. The results indicate that expectations have been sensitive to policy actions, but all forecasters’ reactions do not seem to follow the basic predictions of a standard New Keynesian model. Also the relationship between inflation and output forecasts does not seem to follow a Phillips curve type relationship. Moreover, short- and long term reactions to policy are often weakly related and of different sign. Interestingly, subjective forecast uncertainty measures are very sensitive to policy measures. Thus, there seems to be much heterogeneity in forecasters’ reactions to most policy decisions. All uncertainty measures, including long-term inflation uncertainty, have increased over time. This has to be taken into account when considering the anchoring of inflation expectations to the inflation target.
  • Lv, Bingyang; Liu, Yongzheng; Li, Yan; Ding, Siying (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2018
    This paper explores how fiscal incentives offered to local governments in China affect investment rates in their jurisdictions. Theoretically, we build a simple fiscal competition model to establish the linkage between local fiscal incentives and expenditure policy and consequently, capital movement. The key prediction of the model, borne out by data from Chinese provinces spanning 2004–2013, is that an increase in the local corporate income tax-sharing ratio, which proxies fiscal incentives offered to local governments, motivates local governments to compete for capital investment through increased public expenditures. Our results contribute to the fiscal federalism literature by showing that local fiscal incentives significantly shape policy choices and local economic performance. In addition, by exploring fiscal incentives offered to local governments, we offer a novel explanation for the unusually high investment rate in China that has been sustained over a prolonged period of time.
  • Korkeamäki, Timo; Virk, Nader; Wang, Haizhi; Wang, Peng (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2018
    We analyze preferences of foreign institutional investors in the Chinese stock market in a sample that covers 2003 to 2014. We find foreign investors changed their investment behavior during the sample period from generic patterns found in much of the world to China-specific patterns. The results suggest that foreign institutions learned to adjust their investment behavior to account for unique features of the Chinese market.