Tutkimukset

Uusimmat julkaisut

  • Klein, Paul-Olivier; Weill, Laurent (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2018
    This paper analyses the effect of bank profitability on economic growth. While policymakers have shown major concerns for low levels of bank profitability, there are no empirical studies on the growth effects of bank profitability. To fill this gap, we investigate the impact of bank profitability on economic growth using a sample of 133 countries during the period 1999–2013 with several empirical approaches. Our first major conclusion is that a high current level of bank profitability contributes positively to economic growth. Our second conclusion is that the past level of bank profitability exerts a negative influence on economic growth leading to the absence of significance for the overall bank profitability. Hence, the positive impact of bank profitability on economic growth is short-lived. These findings are robust to a battery of robustness checks, including those using alternative measures for profitability and growth.
  • Baumeister, Christiane; Hamilton, James D. (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2018
    Reporting point estimates and error bands for structural vector autoregressions that are only set identified is a very common practice. However, unless the researcher is persuaded on the basis of prior information that some parameter values are more plausible than others, this common practice has no formal justification. When the role and reliability of prior information is defended, Bayesian posterior probabilities can be used to form an inference that incorporates doubts about the identifying assumptions. We illustrate how prior information can be used about both structural coefficients and the impacts of shocks, and propose a new distribution, which we call the asymmetric t distribution, for incorporating prior beliefs about the signs of equilibrium impacts in a nondogmatic way. We apply these methods to a three-variable macroeconomic model and conclude that monetary policy shocks were not the major driver of output, inflation, or interest rates during the Great Moderation.
  • Jokivuolle, Esa; Tunaru, Radu; Vioto, Davide (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2018
    This paper contains a testing framework for the reliability of systemic risk measurement of banks, using the three leading market-based measures of systemic risk. We test whether the difference within the same category and across dfferent categories of systemic risk of individual banks is signifcant. We find that in general the systemic risk categories defined by the Financial Stability Board are dfferent from those constructed in a full pairwise comparison approach based on the market measures. Moreover, these dfferences were more pronounced during episodes of high market turbulence.To account for model risk we introduce a more robust ranking method based on nonparametric confidence intervals. We show that there is a large number of banks with overlapping confidence intervals of their market-based systemic risk measures.Further, similarity measures indicate that the scoring based rankings are not perfectly aligned with rankings produced by market based systemic risk measures.
  • Silvo, Aino (2018)
    Bank of Finland. Scientific monographs. E 52
    This thesis consists of an introductory chapter and three self-contained essays that apply insights from the microeconomic theory of corporate finance in a macroeconomic setting in order to explain and understand various market failures that were at the roots of the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. In particular, I study various forms of incomplete information in the credit market, and their implications on financial stability and on business cycles in the aggregate economy. I also seek to understand how monetary and macroprudential policies can be used to maintain financial stability, and how these two policies interact.