Research

Recent Submissions

  • Breitenlechner, Max; Nuutilainen, Riikka (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2019
    We study the credit channel of Chinese monetary policy in a structural vector autoregressive framework. Using combinations of zero and sign restrictions, we identify monetary policy shocks linked to supply and demand responses in the loan market. Our results show that policy shocks coinciding with loan supply effects account for roughly 10 percent of output dynamics after two years, while loan demand effects represent up to 7 percent of output dynamics depending on the policy measure. The credit channel thus constitutes an important and economically relevant transmission channel for monetary policy in China. Monetary policy in China also accounts for a relatively high share of business cycle dynamics.
  • Yu, Haiyue; Cao, Jin; Kang, Shulong (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2019
    This paper considers the role of grandparental childcare in China’s extraordinarily high female labor-market participation rate. Indeed, the high female labor-market participation and low labor-income penalty for childbirth is all the more remarkable given the lack of public subsidies for childcare. Using a novel and high-quality dataset, we find that childcare provided by retired grandparents significantly reduces the duration of career breaks for young women and helps women remain in the labor force. We further show that well-educated urban women benefit most from grandparental childcare, especially in the first three years of the child’s life before there is a possibility to enter kindergarten.
  • Pestova, Anna; Mamonov, Mikhail (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2019
    We employ a Bayesian VAR model to estimate the economic effects on the Russian economy from Western financial sanctions imposed in 2014. Sanctions caused a decrease in the amount of out-standing Russian corporate external debt, but it occurred during an episode of falling oil prices. We disentangle the effects of sanctions and oil prices by computing out-of-sample projections of key Russian macroeconomic variables conditioned solely on the oil price drop and on both the oil price drop and external debt deleveraging. Declining oil prices alone do not explain the depth of economic crisis in Russia, but we get rather accurate conditional forecasts when the actual path of external debt deleveraging is added. We treat the difference between these two projections as the effect of sanctions against Russia. The effect is modest, yet significant, for most of the variables discussed. While our estimate of the impact of sanctions on GDP growth has large uncertainty, over two-thirds of the density lies in the negative area.
  • Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2019
    Do closer political ties with a global superpower improve sovereign borrowing conditions? We use data on voting at the United Nations General Assembly along with foreign aid flows to construct an index of political ties and find evidence that suggests closer political ties leads to both better sovereign credit ratings and lower yields on sovereign bonds. We use heads-of-state official visits and coalition forces troop contributions as exogenous instruments to further strengthen the findings.
  • Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Martins, Manuel M.F.; Soares, Maria Joana (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2019
    We estimate the U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the time-frequency domain with continuous wavelet tools, to provide an integrated answer to the three most controversial issues on the Phillips Curve. (1) Has the short-run tradeoff been stable? (2) What has been the role of expectations? (3) Is there a long-run tradeoff? First, we find that the short-run tradeoff is limited to some specific episodes and short cycles and that there is no evidence of nonlinearities or structural breaks. Second, households expectations captured trend inflation and were anchored until the Great Recession, but not since 2008. Then, inflation over-reacted to expectations at short cycles. Finally, there is no signi cant long-run tradeoff. In the long-run, inflation is explained by expectations.