Research

Recent Submissions

  • Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszekz, Michał; Walerych, Małgorzata (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24/2019
    In this paper we challenge the conventional view that increasing working time exibility limits the amplitude of unemployment fluctuations. We start by showing that hours per worker in European countries are much less procyclical than in the US, and in some economies even co-move negatively with output. This is confirmed by the results from a structural VAR model for the euro area, in which working hours increase after a contractionary monetary shock, exacerbating the upward pressure on unemployment. To understand these counterintuitive results, we develop a structural search and matching macroeconomic model with endogenous job separation. We show that this feature is key to generate countercyclical adjustments in working hours. When we augment the model with frictions in working hours adjustment and estimate it using euro area time series, we find that increasing flexibility of working time amplifies cyclical movements in unemployment.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Hughes Hallett, Andrew (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 23/2019
    Understanding the relationship between national income GDP components is an essential part of macroeconomics. This study investigates quarterly real GDP component data for the U.S. and the U.K. and applies continuous wavelet analysis on cross comparisons of the data, from both within and between the two datasets. The results show that the cyclical interactions between consumption and investment are the most complex and most substantial at several different frequencies. The relationship of exports with other macroeconomic variables has also developed over time, likely due to the evolution of an international business cycle.
  • Tölö, Eero; Jokivuolle, Esa; Viren, Matti (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2019
    Using the Eurosystem’s proprietary interbank loan data from more than one thousand banks, practically all major banks in Europe for 2008-2016, we show that larger European banks have had a lower cost of overnight borrowing than smaller banks. The size premium remains significant after controlling for time, relationship lending, competitive environment of lenders, and bank risk characteristics but has decreased over time in countries that were stricken by the Sovereign Debt Crisis. Further, the ultra-short maturity of the overnight loans and the daily frequency at which we measure them provide for an ideal setting to use difference-in-differences analysis to study the potential effect of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) on the size premium in overnight rates and to avoid possible simultaneity problems. However, we find that changes in the size premium cannot be related to the implementation dates of the BRRD in different member countries.
  • Song, Ke; Xia, Le (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2019
    This research empirically examines the impact of China’s Renminbi (RMB) bilateral swap agree-ments (BSAs) on the usage of the currency in cross-border trade transactions. By using a unique dataset from SWIFT including cross-border settlement messages of 91 countries/regions between October 2010 and November 2015, we confirm that the signing of a RMB BSA helps to increase the number, the value and the proportion of RMB settlement in cross-border trade. Our results are robust with respect to the choice of different models, including multi-level mixed model, two-stage regression model, and difference-in-difference model. In addition to justifying the effectiveness of China’s BSA-signing strategy to promote the RMB usage in trade settlement, our results clarify that the signing of those RMB BSAs is not purely for China’s political ends as some scholars claim.
  • Chatterjee, Sris; Gu, Xian; Hasan, Iftekhar; Lu, Haitian (2019)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2019
    Drawing upon evidence from the Chinese corporate bond market, we study how ownership structure affects the cost of debt for firms. Our results show that state, institutional and foreign ownership formats reduce the cost of debt for firms. The benefits of state ownership are accentuated when the issuer is headquartered in a province with highly developed market institutions, operates in an industry less dominated by the state or during the period after the 2012 anti-corruption reforms. Institutional ownership provides the most benefits in environments with lower levels of marketization, especially for firms with low credit quality. Our evidence sheds light on the nexus of ownership and debt cost in a political economy where state and private firms face productivity and credit frictions. It is also illustrative of how the market environment interacts with corporate ownership in affecting the cost of bond issuance.