Tutkimukset

Uusimmat julkaisut

  • Ristolainen, Kim (2018)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2018
    The recent financial crises have brought into focus questions regarding the quality of banks' assets. We study the patterns in banks reserving for and reporting of loan losses in the EU before and after implementation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). We find that banks that 1) have less tier 1 capital, 2) are smaller, 3) are less liquid and 4) have smaller net interest margins either report relatively smaller loan loss reserves or less loan losses, even after including various controls. This supports the hypothesis that financially weaker banks may have a larger incentive to engage in balance sheet window dressing. We further find that the SSM has reduced but not eliminated the under-reserving and under-reporting bias. In addition, there has been a separate positive effect on the overall proportion of nonperforming loans (NPLs) that are realised as losses among the banks that have been under direct supervision by the SSM since implementation of the SSM.
  • Bai, Yiyi; Dang, Vi Tri; He, Qing; Lu, Liping (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2018
    We examine China’s June 2013 liquidity crunch as a negative shock to banks and analyze the wealth effects on exchange-listed firms. Our findings suggest that liquidity shocks to financial institutions negatively impact borrower performance, particularly borrowers reporting outstanding loans at the end of 2012. Stock valuations of firms with long-term bank relationships, however, outperform the market and experience smaller subsequent declines in investment than peers lacking solid banking relationships. This effect is the strongest for firms that enjoy good relations with China’s large state-owned banks or foreign banks, and weakest for firms whose connections are solely with local banks. We document a positive correlation between the stock performances of firms and the stock performances of lender banks and the likelihood of lender banks operating as net lenders in the interbank market. These results suggest that banks transmit liquidity shocks to their borrowing firms and that a long-term bank-firm relationship may mitigate the negative effects of a liquidity shock.
  • Funke, Michael; Sun, Rongrong; Zhu, Linxu (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2018
    Household borrowing in China has increased considerably in recent years, raising concerns about the household sector’s vulnerability and implications for the stability of the financial system. We construct a number of granular debt-burden indicators at the level of individual Chinese households and calculate the share of households that are financially vulnerable using the three available waves (2011, 2013 and 2015) of China’s Household Finance Survey. Overall loan-to-value (LTV) ratios appear safe and sound at first glance, but closer scrutiny reveals that Chinese households in the lowest income quintile face high vulnerability and struggle to meet their debt commitments. Our stress tests suggest that Chinese households in higher quintiles, despite the huge increase in house-hold indebtedness, are not particularly vulnerable to declining incomes or falling house prices.
  • Amstad, Marlene; Ye, Huan; Ma, Guonan (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2018
    Inflation in emerging markets is often driven by large, persistent changes in food and energy prices. Core inflation measures that neglect or under-weight volatile CPI subcomponents such as food and energy risk excluding information helpful in assessing current and future inflation trends. This paper develops an underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China, extracting the persistent part of the common component in a broad dataset of price and non-price variables. Our proposed UIG for China avoids the excess volatility reduction that plagues traditional Chinese core inflation measures. When forecasting headline CPI, the proposed UIG outperforms traditional core inflation measures over a variety of samples.
  • Kurronen, Sanna (2018)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2018
    This study examines the financial channel between oil price volatility and the resource curse using firm-level data. A collapse in oil prices adversely affects firm borrowing in resource-dependent countries. However, unlike in non-resource-dependent countries where just the resource sector is harmed, both resource and non-resource firms are affected in resource-dependent countries in an oil price collapse. We also find evidence of a flight to quality in lending, implying that the decline in leverage can partly be attributed to a reduction in the credit supply. Our results suggest that oil price volatility operates via the financial channel to impede economic diversification in resource-dependent countries.