Recent Submissions

  • Nurmi, Satu; Vanhala, Juuso; Virén, Matti (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2020
    We analyze the demographics of zombie firms and durations of zombie spells as well as their determinants, including an application on public subsidies using firm level population panel data from Finland. Firm-level analysis of firm demographics reveals that zombie-firms, as commonly defined in the literature, are often not truly distressed firms but rather companies with temporarily low revenues relative to interest payments. More importantly, we find that roughly a third of these firms are in fact growing companies and two thirds recover from the zombie status to become healthy firms. We also show that the increase of zombie firms over the past 15 years has mainly been driven by cyclical factors, as opposed to a secular trend. In our policy application on government subsidies to firms, estimation results strongly suggest that subsidy-receiving firms are less likely to die, regardless of the type of subsidy. However, with regard to recovery there is heterogeneity in the effects depending on the type of firm and the type of subsidy received. Thus, we do not find a robust positive association of subsidies with zombie recovery.
  • Perugini, Cristiano (2020)
    BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2020
    The microeconomic drivers of medium- and short-term income mobility in Russia over the period 1996–2016 are investigated using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). Focusing on the role of access to credit in triggering household income growth, the descriptive analysis suggests that high levels of mobility materialising in pro-poor patterns of growth may accompany Russia’s notoriously high levels of inequality. Controlling for other personal and household characteristics, the econometric model for drivers of income mobility indicates that access to credit boosts income mobility. Complementary empirical evidence suggests that this effect may unfold through channels related to the labour market and non-labour sources of income.
  • Granziera, Eleonora; Sihvonen, Markus (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2020
    We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict bond and currency returns. The model also creates the downward sloping term structure of carry trade returns documented by Lustig et al. (2019), difficult to replicate in a rational expectations framework. Consistent with the model, we find that variables that predict bond and currency returns also predict surveybased expectational errors concerning interest and FX rates. The model explains why monetary policy induces drift patterns in bond and currency markets and predicts that long-term rates are a better gauge of market’s short rate expectations than previously thought.
  • Faria, Gonçalo; Verona, Fabio (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/2020
    Any time series can be decomposed into cyclical components fluctuating at different frequencies. Accordingly, in this paper we propose a method to forecast the stock market's equity premium which exploits the frequency relationship between the equity premium and several predictor variables. We evaluate a large set of models and find that, by selecting the relevant frequencies for equity premium forecasting, this method significantly improves in both statistical and economic sense upon standard time series forecasting methods. This improvement is robust regardless of the predictor used, the out-of-sample period considered, and the frequency of the data used.
  • Ambrocio, Gene (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 5/2020
    I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks are not universally like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely inflationary in Europe. These results lend support to a pricing bias mechanism as an important transmission channel. A comparison of results across countries suggest that demographics and factors related to average markups along with monetary policy play a role in the transmission of household uncertainty to inflation. I develop an Overlapping Generations New Keynesian model with Deep Habits to rationalize these results.