Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries
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Title:
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Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries |
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Author:
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Haavio, Markus
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Mendicino, Caterina
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Punzi, Maria Teresa
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Organization:
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Bank of Finland
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Series:
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Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
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Series number:
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35/2013 |
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Year of publication:
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2013 |
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Publication date:
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19.12.2013 |
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Published in:
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Published in Applied Economics Letters, Volume 21, Issue 6, April 2014, Pages 407-412 ; https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.864025 |
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Pages:
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19 s. |
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Keywords:
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suhdanteet; kansainvälinen; rahoitusmarkkinat; osakkeet; hinnat; asunnot; luotot; indikaattorit; bkt; varallisuushinnat; talletukset; |
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JEL:
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C53; E32; E37; G17
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Abstract:
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This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit analysis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions. Keywords: macro-financial linkages; turning point analysis; probit models JEL classification numbers: C53, E32, E37, G17 |
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Rights:
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https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright
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