Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries

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Title: Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries
Author: Haavio, Markus ; Mendicino, Caterina ; Punzi, Maria Teresa
Organization: Bank of Finland
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
Series number: 35/2013
Year of publication: 2013
Publication date: 19.12.2013
Published in: Published in Applied Economics Letters, Volume 21, Issue 6, April 2014, Pages 407-412 ;
Pages: 19 s.
Keywords: suhdanteet; kansainvälinen; rahoitusmarkkinat; osakkeet; hinnat; asunnot; luotot; indikaattorit; bkt; varallisuushinnat; talletukset;
JEL: C53; E32; E37; G17
Abstract: This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit analysis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions. Keywords: macro-financial linkages; turning point analysis; probit models JEL classification numbers: C53, E32, E37, G17

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