One money, several cycles? : evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis

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Title: One money, several cycles? : evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis
Author: Crowley, Patrick M.
Organization: Suomen Pankki
Series: Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers
Series number: 3/2008
Year of publication: 2008
Publication date: 8.1.2008
Pages: 46 s.
Keywords: euroalue; EMU; suhdanteet; rahaliitot; mallit; Eurooppa; Saksa; optimaalinen valuutta-alue; korrelaatio
JEL: F15; F31
Abstract: Optimal currency area theory suggests that business cycle co-movement is a sufficient condition for monetary union, particularly if there are low levels of labour mobility between potential members of the monetary union. Previous studies of co-movement of business cycle variables found that there was a core of member states in the EU that could be grouped together as having similar business cycle co-movements, but these studies have always used Germany as the country against which to compare. This study updates and extends corresponding previous analyses. More specifically, it correlates the countries against both German and euro area macroeconomic aggregates and uses more recent techniques in cluster analysis, namely model-based clustering techniques. Keywords: business cycles, co-movement, optimal currency areas, model-based cluster analysis JEL classification numbers: F15, F31
Rights: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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