Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers (1988- )


The Bank of Finland Discussion Paper series publishes academic research by economists in the Research Unit and the Bank more broadly, as well as by visiting scholars. The topics are relevant from the point of view of the Bank's strategic aims and contribute to the Bank's research focus on the interplay between and stability of the financial markets and the macroeconomy. Not all Discussion Papers for the years 1989–1994 are available electronically.

Recent Submissions

  • Juselius, Mikael; Tarashev, Nikola (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2020
    Extending a standard credit-risk model illustrates that a single factor can drive both expected losses and the extent to which they may be exceeded in extreme scenarios, ie “unexpected losses.” This leads us to develop a framework for forecasting these losses jointly. In an application to quarterly US data on loan charge-offs from 1985 to 2019, we find that financial-cycle indicators – notably, the debt service ratio and credit-to-GDP gap – deliver reliable real-time forecasts, signalling turning points up to three years in advance. Provisions and capital that reflect such forecasts would help reduce the procyclicality of banks’ loss-absorbing resources.
  • D'Acunto, Francesco; Hoang, Daniel; Paloviita, Maritta; Weber, Michael (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 17/2020
    Communication targeting households and firms has become a stand-alone policy tool of many central banks. But which forms of communication, if any, can reach ordinary people and manage their economic expectations effectively? In a large-scale randomized control trial, we show that communication manages expectations when it focuses on policy targets and objectives rather than on the instruments designed to reach such objectives. It is especially the least sophisticated demographic groups, whom central banks typically struggle to reach, who react more to target-based communication. When exposed to target-based communication, these groups are also more likely to believe that policies will benefit households and the economy. Target-based communication enhances policy effectiveness and contributes to strengthen the public’s trust in central banks, which is crucial to ensure the effectiveness of their policies.
  • Laine, Olli-Matti (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 16/2020
    This paper estimates the effect of the European Central Banks’s monetary policy on the term structure of expected stock market risk premia. Expected stock market premia are solved using analysts’ dividend forecasts, the Eurostoxx 50 stock index and Eurostoxx 50 dividend futures. Although risk-free rates have decreased after the global financial crisis, the results indicate that the expected average stock market return has remained quite stable at around 9 percent. This implies that the expected average stock market risk premium has increased since the financial crisis. The effect of monetary policy on expected premia is analysed using VAR models and local projection methods. According to the results, monetary policy easing raises the average expected premium. The effect is driven by a rise in long-horizon expected premia.
  • Magnus, Blomkvist; Korkeamäki, Timo; Takalo, Tuomas (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2020
    We propose a rationale for why firms often return to the equity market shortly after their initial public offering (IPO). We argue that hard to value firms conduct smaller IPOs, and that they return to the equity market conditional on positive valuation signal from the stock market. Thus, information asymmetry is not a necessary condition for staged financing. We find strong support for these arguments in a sample of 2,143 U.S. IPOs between 1981-2014. Hard to value firms conduct smaller IPOs, and upon positive post-IPO returns, they tend to return to the equity market quickly, following the IPO.
  • König-Kersting, Christian; Trautmann, Stefan T.; Vlahu, Razvan (2020)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2020
    We study the impact of disclosure about bank fundamentals on depositors’ behavior in the presence (and absence) of economic linkages between financial institutions. Using a controlled laboratory environment, we identify under which conditions disclosure is conducive to bank stability. We find that bank deposits are sensitive to perceived bank performance. While banks with strong fundamentals benefit from more precise disclosure, an opposing effect is present for solvent banks with weaker fundamentals. Depositors take information about economic linkages into account and correctly identify when disclosure about one institution conveys meaningful information for others. Our findings highlight both the costs and benefits of bank transparency and suggest that disclosure is not always stability enhancing.