Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers (1989- )

 

Keskustelualoitesarjassa julkaistaan akateemisia tutkimuksia teemoista, jotka ovat keskeisiä Suomen Pankin strategisten tavoitteiden kannalta ja vastaavat painopistealuetta makrotalouden ja rahoitusmarkkinoiden vuorovaikutus ja vakaus. Tekijät ovat tutkimusyksikön tai muiden yksikköjen ekonomisteja tai vierailevia tutkijoita. Keskustelualoitteet ilmestyvät englanniksi.

Uusimmat julkaisut

  • Jones, Derek C.; Kalmi, Panu; Kato, Takao; Mäkinen, Mikko (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 33/2017
    This paper investigates the role of individual incentive (II) and group incentive (GI) pay as determinants of worker separation. We use a large linked employer-employee panel data set for full-time male manufacturing workers during 1997-2006 from Finland. We follow actual job spells and switches of individual employees and define separation as worker exit from his current employer. The key finding for white-collar workers is that group incentive pay is associated significantly with increased probability of separation and hence diminished employment stability, but in large firms only. For blue-collar workers our results consistently indicate that individual incentive pay is associated with a decreased probability of separation and hence enhanced employment stability, both in small and large firms. Our finding that group incentive pay increases the risk of separation for white-collar workers is more consistent with theoretical work such as Lazear (2000) and Fehr and Gaechter (2000), while uncovering that individual incentive pay decreases employment stability for blue-collar workers supports theoretical work such as Parent (1999) and Paarsch and Shearer (2000).
  • Hudgins, David; Crowley, Patrick M. (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 32/2017
    This paper develops a wavelet-based control system model that can be used to simulate fiscal and monetary strategies in an open economy context in the time-frequency domain. As the emphasis on real exchange rate stability is increased, the model simulates the effects on both the aggregate and decomposed trade balance under both constant and depreciating real exchange rate targets, and also the effects on the real GDP expenditure components. This paper adds to recent research in this area by incorporating an external sector via the use of a real effective exchange rate as a driver of output. The research is also the first to analyze exchange rate effects within a time-frequency model with integrated fiscal and monetary policies in an open-economy applied wavelet-based optimal control setting. To demonstrate the usefulness of this model, we use post-apartheid South African macro data under a political targeting design for the frequency range weights, where we simulate jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy under varying preferences for real exchange rate stability.
  • Caballero, Julián; Fernández, Andrés (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 31/2017
    We document a considerable increase in foreign financing by the corporate sector in emerging economies (EMEs) since the early 2000s, mainly in the form of bond issuance, and claim that it has opened up an important channel by which external financial factors can drive economic activity in these economies. Such claim is substantiated by a strong negative relationship between economic activity and an external financial indicator that we construct for several EMEs using micro-level data on spreads of bonds issued by EMEs’ corporations in foreign capital markets. Three salient features characterize such a negative relationship. First, the financial indicator has considerable predictive power on future economic activity in these economies, even after controlling for other potential drivers of economic activity such as movements in sovereign risk and global financial risk, among others. Second, on average, an identified adverse shock to the financial indicator generates a large and protracted fall of real output growth in these economies, and between 11 to 20 percent of its forecast error variance is associated to this shock. Lastly, fluctuations in this indicator also respond strongly to shocks in global financial risk emanating from world capital markets, thereby implying that changes of our indicator also serve as a powerful propagating mechanism to changes in global investors’ appetite for risk.
  • Takalo, Tuomas; Tanayama, Tanja (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 30/2017
    We conduct a welfare analysis of R&D subsidies and tax credits using a model of innovation policy in corporating externalities, limited R&D participation and finanial market imperfetions. We estimate the model using R&D projet level data from Finland. The optimal R&D tax credit rate (0.24) is lower than the average R&D subsidy rate (0.36). The intensive, not the extensive margin of R&D is important for poliy. Tax credits and subsidies inrease R&D investments and spillovers compared to laissez-faire but to levels below the first best. R&D support policies don't improve welfare.
  • Paloviita, Maritta; Haavio, Markus; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Kilponen, Juha (2017)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017
    We estimate the ECB’s monetary policy reaction function by using real time Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection data, which are presented to the ECB’s Governing Council when it assesses the monetary policy stance in the euro area. Alternative specifications of the reaction function account for a possible credibility loss due to persistent deviations of past inflation from the ECB’s inflation target. The results provide support for two alternative interpretations of the definition of price stability. First, the ECB dislikes inflation rates above two percent more than rates below two percent. Second, the ECB policy responses to past inflation gaps are symmetric with respect to a target of 1.6 - 1.7 percent. The out-of-sample predictions of the reaction function based on the second interpretation of the definition of price stability track well an estimated shadow interest rate during the zero lower bound period.