Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers (1988- )

 

The Bank of Finland Discussion Paper series publishes academic research by economists in the Research Unit and the Bank more broadly, as well as by visiting scholars. The topics are relevant from the point of view of the Bank's strategic aims and contribute to the Bank's research focus on the interplay between and stability of the financial markets and the macroeconomy. Not all Discussion Papers for the years 1989–1994 are available electronically.

Recent Submissions

  • Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2019
    Do closer political ties with a global superpower improve sovereign borrowing conditions? We use data on voting at the United Nations General Assembly along with foreign aid flows to construct an index of political ties and find evidence that suggests closer political ties leads to both better sovereign credit ratings and lower yields on sovereign bonds. We use heads-of-state official visits and coalition forces troop contributions as exogenous instruments to further strengthen the findings.
  • Aguiar-Conraria, Luís; Martins, Manuel M.F.; Soares, Maria Joana (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2019
    We estimate the U.S. New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the time-frequency domain with continuous wavelet tools, to provide an integrated answer to the three most controversial issues on the Phillips Curve. (1) Has the short-run tradeoff been stable? (2) What has been the role of expectations? (3)Is there a long-run tradeoff? First, we fi nd that the short-run tradeoff is limited to some speci c episodes and short cycles and that there is no evidence of nonlinearities or structural breaks. Second, households expectations captured trend in flation and were anchored until the Great Recession, but not since 2008. Then, inflation over-reacted to expectations at short cycles. Finally, there is no signi cant long-run tradeoff. In the long-run, infl ation is explained by expectations.
  • Crowley, Patrick M.; Hudgins, David (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 11/2019
    It is widely recognized that the policy objectives of fiscal and monetary policymakers usually have different time horizons, and this feature may not be captured by traditional econometric techniques. In this paper, we first decompose U.S macroeconomic data using a time-frequency domain technique, namely discrete wavelet analysis. We then model the behavior of the U.S. economy over each wavelet frequency range and use our estimated parameters to construct a tracking model. To illustrate the usefulness of this approach, we simulate jointly optimal fiscal and monetary policy with different short-term targets: an inflation target, a money growth target, an interest rate target, and a real exchange rate target. The results determine the reaction in fiscal and monetary policy that is required to achieve an inflation target in a low inflation environment, and when both fiscal and monetary policy are concerned with meeting certain economic growth objectives. The combination of wavelet decomposition in an optimal control framework can also provide a new approach to macroeconomic forecasting.
  • Stanisławska, Ewa; Paloviita, Maritta; Łyziak, Tomasz (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2019
    Using a novel approach based on micro-level survey responses, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations estimates in the European Commission Consumer Survey. We identify the share of consumers, whose qualitative and quantitative views on expected increase of prices do not match each other. Then we consider the impact of inconsistent survey responses on balance statistics and mean values of quantitative inflation expectations. We also analyze expectations’ formation estimating the sticky-information models. The results, based on Finnish and Polish data, suggest that even if the fraction of inconsistent survey responses is non-negligible, it matters neither for the aggregated figures of inflation views, nor for understanding of the formation of inflation expectations by consumers. We conclude that micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the current EC Consumer Survey dataset. Our results also indicate that inconsistent responses are not important drivers of the inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data.
  • Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha (2019)
    Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 9/2019
    We study macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock had a significant effect on Finnish output. While the direct trade channel effect was rather moderate, the shock led to significant tightening of financial conditions. It was therefore endogenously amplified due to the propagation through the domestic financial sector. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all-out economic crisis. It can account for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990 − 1993). The crisis was triggered and prolonged by the meltdown of the overheated financial and banking sectors since 1989. We show that the financial system remained a major independent source of shocks throughout the depression.