Evaluating inflation determinants with a money supply rule in four Central and Eastern European EU member states

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Title: Evaluating inflation determinants with a money supply rule in four Central and Eastern European EU member states
Author: Mehrotra, Aaron ; Slacik, Tomás
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers
Series number: 18/2009
Year of publication: 2009
Publication date: 11.10.2009
Pages: 29 s.
Keywords: säännöt; inflaatio; rahan määrä; KIE; Itä-Eurooppa; Phillipsin käyrä; Tsekki; Unkari; Puola; Slovakia; EKP; rahapolitiikka; Bofit-kokoelma; uudet EU-maat
Abstract: We evaluate the monetary determinants of inflation in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia by using the McCallum rule for money supply. The deviation of actual money growth from the rule is included in the estimation of Phillips curves for the four economies by Bayesian model averaging. We find that money provides information about price developments over a horizon of ten quarters ahead, albeit the estimates are in most cases rather imprecise. Moreover, the effect of excessive monetary growth on inflation is mixed: It is positive for Poland and Slovakia, but negative for the Czech Republic and Hungary. Nevertheless, these results suggest that money does provide information about future inflation and that a McCallum rule could potentially be used in the future as an additional indicator of the monetary policy stance once the precision of the estimation improves with more data available.
Rights: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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