Real-time warning signs of emerging and collapsing Chinese house price bubbles

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Title: Real-time warning signs of emerging and collapsing Chinese house price bubbles
Author: Chen, Xi ; Funke, Michael
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers
Series number: 27/2012
Year of publication: 2012
Publication date: 13.11.2012
Published in: Published in The National Institute Economic Review, February 2013, 223 (1), pp. 39-48
Pages: 25 s.
Keywords: Kiina; asunnot; hinnat; kuplat; asuntomarkkinat; kiinteistöt; varallisuushinnat; Bofit-kokoelma
JEL: C15; G01; G12; R31
Abstract: The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find that except for 2009-2010 actual house prices are not significantly disconnected from fundamentals. Thus, the evidence for speculative house price bubbles in China is in general weak. Keywords: house prices, China, speculative bubbles, recursive unit root tests JEL-Classification: C15, G01, G12, R31
Rights: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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