Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China

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Title: Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China
Author: Kaaresvirta, Juuso ; Mehrotra, Aaron
Organization: Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Discussion Papers
Series number: 22/2008
Year of publication: 2008
Publication date: 22.11.2008
Published in: Published in Economic change and restructuring, vol. 42, no. 4 (2009), pp. 263-271
Pages: 15 s.
Keywords: Kiina; ennusteet; hinnat; inflaatio; indikaattorit; yritykset; Bofit-kokoelma
JEL: C53; E31
Abstract: We use business survey data collected by the People's Bank of China for inflation forecast-ing. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the uni-variate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the esti-mated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices. Keywords: inflation forecasting; business surveys; China. JEL classification: C53; E31.
Rights: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/copyright


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