Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China

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Titel: Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China
Författare: Kaaresvirta, Juuso ; Mehrotra, Aaron
Institution: Bank of Finland
Avdelning / Enhet: Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Serie: BOFIT Discussion Papers
Serienumber: 22/2008
Utgivningsår: 2008
Utgivningsdatum: 22.11.2008
Publicerad i: Published in Economic change and restructuring, vol. 42, no. 4 (2009), pp. 263-271
Sidor: 15 s.
Nyckelord: Kiina; ennusteet; hinnat; inflaatio; indikaattorit; yritykset; Bofit-kokoelma
JEL: C53; E31
Abstrakt: We use business survey data collected by the People's Bank of China for inflation forecast-ing. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the uni-variate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the esti-mated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices. Keywords: inflation forecasting; business surveys; China. JEL classification: C53; E31.

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