Browsing by Subject "DEATH"

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  • Ramo, Joel T.; Ripatti, Pietari; Tabassum, Rubina; Soderlund, Sanni; Matikainen, Niina; Gerl, Mathias J.; Klose, Christian; Surma, Michal A.; Stitziel, Nathan O.; Havulinna, Aki S.; Pirinen, Matti; Salomaa, Veikko; Freimer, Nelson B.; Jauhiainen, Matti; Palotie, Aarno; Taskinen, Marja-Riitta; Simons, Kai; Ripatti, Samuli (2019)
    Background-We asked whether, after excluding familial hypercholesterolemia, individuals with high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) or triacylglyceride levels and a family history of the same hyperlipidemia have greater coronary artery disease risk or different lipidomic profiles compared with population-based hyperlipidemias. Methods and Results-We determined incident coronary artery disease risk for 755 members of 66 hyperlipidemic families (>2 first-degree relatives with similar hyperlipidemia) and 19 644 Finnish FINRISK population study participants. We quantified 151 circulating lipid species from 550 members of 73 hyperlipidemic families and 897 FINRISK participants using mass spectrometric shotgun lipidomics. Familial hypercholesterolemia was excluded using functional LDL receptor testing and genotyping. Hyperlipidemias (LDL-C or triacylglycerides >90th population percentile) associated with increased coronary artery disease risk in meta-analysis of the hyperlipidemic families and the population cohort (high LDL-C: hazard ratio, 1.74 [95% CI, 1.48-2.04]; high triacylglycerides: hazard ratio, 1.38 [95% CI 1.09-1.74]). Risk estimates were similar in the family and population cohorts also after adjusting for lipid-lowering medication. In lipidomic profiling, high LDL-C associated with 108 lipid species, and high triacylglycerides associated with 131 lipid species in either cohort (at 5% false discovery rate; P-value range 0.038-2.3x 10(-56)). Lipidomic profiles were highly similar for hyperlipidemic individuals in the families and the population (LDL-C: r=0.80; triacylglycerides: r=0.96; no lipid species deviated between the cohorts). Conclusions-Hyperlipidemias with family history conferred similar coronary artery disease risk as population-based hyperlipidemias. We identified distinct lipidomic profiles associated with high LDL-C and triacylglycerides. Lipidomic profiles were similar between hyperlipidemias with family history and population-ascertained hyperlipidemias, providing evidence of similar and overlapping underlying mechanisms.
  • Erkman, Ahmet Cem; Basoglu, Oksan; Basibuyuk, Gulusan Ozgun; Kirmizioglu, Pinar Gozluk; Yigit, Ayhan; Yalcin, Yarenkur Alkan; Kaya, Ferhat (2016)
    The excavations conducted at Van Castle Mound, East Anatolia, between 1987 and 2010 uncovered a total of 328 human skeletons dating back to the Medieval period. Thirty trauma cases were identified within the collection, constituting 9.14% of the entire population. Typology and distribution of the trauma among different sexes indicated that depression fractures, oblique fractures, comminuted fractures, and head deformation were more frequently observed in male skeletons, while a post-fractural infection appeared only in a female skeleton. Trauma cases were more common on post-cranial bones. In addition, a trepanned cranial specimen belonging to a mature individual is identified in which grooving technique was performed. Most of the observed trauma cases were related to heavy labor, unsafe working conditions, and challenges of everyday agrarian life. Previous paleopathological studies from the Medieval Van Castle Mound also indicates an insufficient nutritation and high physical stress.
  • Liu, Liwei; Herfindal, Lars; Jokela, Jouni; Shishido, Tania Keiko; Wahlsten, Matti; Doskeland, Stein Ove; Sivonen, Kaarina (2014)
  • Nieminen, H. J.; Ylitalo, T.; Karhula, S.; Suuronen, J. -P.; Kauppinen, S.; Serimaa, R.; Haeggstrom, E.; Pritzker, K. P. H.; Valkealahti, M.; Lehenkari, P.; Finnila, M.; Saarakkala, S. (2015)
    Objective: Collagen distribution within articular cartilage (AC) is typically evaluated from histological sections, e.g., using collagen staining and light microscopy (LM). Unfortunately, all techniques based on histological sections are time-consuming, destructive, and without extraordinary effort, limited to two dimensions. This study investigates whether phosphotungstic acid (PTA) and phosphomolybdic acid (PMA), two collagen-specific markers and X-ray absorbers, could (1) produce contrast for AC X-ray imaging or (2) be used to detect collagen distribution within AC. Method: We labeled equine AC samples with PTA or PMA and imaged them with micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) at pre-defined time points 0, 18, 36, 54, 72, 90, 180, 270 h during staining. The micro-CT image intensity was compared with collagen distributions obtained with a reference technique, i.e., Fourier-transform infrared imaging (FTIRI). The labeling time and contrast agent producing highest association (Pearson correlation, BlandeAltman analysis) between FTIRI collagen distribution and micro-CT -determined PTA distribution was selected for human AC. Results: Both, PTA and PMA labeling permitted visualization of AC features using micro-CT in non-calcified cartilage. After labeling the samples for 36 h in PTA, the spatial distribution of X-ray attenuation correlated highly with the collagen distribution determined by FTIRI in both equine (mean +/- S.D. of the Pearson correlation coefficients, r = 0.96 +/- 0.03, n = 12) and human AC (r = 0.82 +/- 0.15, n = 4). Conclusions: PTA-induced X-ray attenuation is a potential marker for non-destructive detection of AC collagen distributions in 3D. This approach opens new possibilities in development of non-destructive 3D histopathological techniques for characterization of OA. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd and Osteoarthritis Research Society International.
  • Rautio, Nina; Miettunen, Jouko; Jääskeläinen, Erika; Nordström, Tanja; Isohanni, Matti; Seppälä, Jussi (2017)
    Background: We examined mortality in schizophrenia spectrum disorder (SSD) and non-schizophrenic psychosis (NSSD) compared to individuals without psychosis, and whether perinatal factors predict mortality. Methods: Within Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (n = 10 933; 203 with SSD, 178 with NSSD), mortality was followed until end of 2011 by national register. Wantedness of pregnancy, mother's antenatal depression, smoking and age, parity, paternal socio-economic status (SES) and family type at birth were examined as predictors of mortality. Results: Mortality was higher in SSD (hazard ratio (HR) 3.60; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.38-5.45) and NSSD (4.05; 2.65-6.17) compared to persons without psychoses after adjustment for gender. HR for natural death was 2.01 (0.82-4.91) in SSD and 4.63 (2.43-8.80) in NSSD after adjustment for gender. Corresponding figures for unnatural deaths were 4.71 (2.94-7.54) and 2.94 (1.56-5.55), respectively. Among non-psychotic persons, mother's depression, smoking and low SES predicted mortality after adjustment for gender and parental psychoses (and SES), whereas among psychosis those whose father was a farmer had lower risk of mortality compared to those with high SES. Conclusions: Individuals with SSD had a higher risk of unnatural death and individuals with NSSD of natural and unnatural deaths. Perinatal factors seem to be more important predictors of mortality in individuals without psychoses than with psychoses. According to population-based long follow-up data, it is important to pay attention to somatic morbidity behind natural causes of death in psychoses and to prevent suicides in order to prevent excess mortality. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Humaloja, Jaana; Litonius, Erik; Efendijev, Ilmar; Folger, Daniel; Raj, Rahul; Pekkarinen, Pirkka T.; Skrifvars, Markus B. (2019)
    Aim: Studies suggest that hyperoxemia increases short-term mortality after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), but the effect of hyperoxemia on long-term outcomes is unclear. We determined the prevalence of early hyperoxemia after CPR and its association with long-term neurological outcome and mortality. Methods: We analysed data from adult cardiac arrest patients treated after CPR in tertiary ICUs during 2005-2013. We retrieved data from the resuscitation and the first arterial blood sample collected after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) (severe hyperoxemia defined as PaO2 > 40 kPa and moderate as PaO2 16-40 kPa). We inspected two outcomes, neurological performance at one year after resuscitation according to the Cerebral Performance Category and one-year mortality. We used logistic regression to test associations between hyperoxemia and the outcome and interaction analyses to test the effect of hyperoxemia exposure on the outcomes in smaller subgroups. Results: Of 1110 patients 11% had severe hyperoxemia, prevalence was 10% for out-of-hospital arrests, 13% for in-hospital arrests and 9% for in-ICU arrests. In total 585(53%) patients had an unfavourable neurological outcome. Compared to normoxemia, severe (Odds ratio [OR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50-1.30) and moderate hyperoxemia (OR 0.94 95%CI 0.69-1.27) did not associate with neurological outcome. Additionally, hyperoxemia had no association with mortality. In subgroup analyses there were no significant associations between severe hyperoxemia and outcomes regardless of cardiac arrest location, initial rhythm or time-to-ROSC. Conclusion: We found no association between early post-arrest hyperoxemia and unfavourable outcome, Subgroup analysis found no differential effect depending on arrest location, initial rhythm or time-to-ROSC.
  • Paciaroni, Maurizio; Angelini, Filippo; Agnelli, Giancarlo; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Furie, Karen L.; Tadi, Prasanna; Becattini, Cecilia; Falocci, Nicola; Zedde, Marialuisa; Abdul-Rahim, Azmil H.; Lees, Kennedy R.; Alberti, Andrea; Venti, Michele; Acciarresi, Monica; Altavilla, Riccardo; D'Amore, Cataldo; Mosconi, Maria G.; Cimini, Ludovica A.; Bovi, Paolo; Carletti, Monica; Rigatelli, Alberto; Cappellari, Manuel; Putaala, Jukka; Tomppo, Liisa; Tatlisumak, Turgut; Bandini, Fabio; Marcheselli, Simona; Pezzini, Alessandro; Poli, Loris; Padovani, Alessandro; Masotti, Luca; Vannucchi, Vieri; Sohn, Sung-Il; Lorenzini, Gianni; Tassi, Rossana; Guideri, Francesca; Acampa, Maurizio; Martini, Giuseppe; Ntaios, George; Karagkiozi, Efstathia; Athanasakis, George; Makaritsis, Kostantinos; Vadikolias, Kostantinos; Liantinioti, Chrysoula; Chondrogianni, Maria; Mumoli, Nicola; Consoli, Domenico; Galati, Franco; Sacco, Simona; Carolei, Antonio; Tiseo, Cindy; Corea, Francesco; Ageno, Walter; Bellesini, Marta; Silvestrelli, Giorgio; Ciccone, Alfonso; Scoditti, Umberto; Denti, Licia; Mancuso, Michelangelo; Maccarrone, Miriam; Orlandi, Giovanni; Giannini, Nicola; Gialdini, Gino; Tassinari, Tiziana; De Lodovici, Maria Luisa; Bono, Giorgio; Rueckert, Christina; Baldi, Antonio; Toni, Danilo; Letteri, Federica; Giuntini, Martina; Lotti, Enrico M.; Flomin, Yuriy; Pieroni, Alessio; Kargiotis, Odysseas; Karapanayiotides, Theodore; Monaco, Serena; Baronello, Mario M.; Csiba, Laszlo; Szabo, Lilla; Chiti, Alberto; Giorli, Elisa; Del Sette, Massimo; Imberti, Davide; Zabzuni, Dorjan; Doronin, Boris; Volodina, Vera; Pd-Mer, Patrik Michel; Vanacker, Peter; Barlinn, Kristian; Pallesen, Lars P.; Kepplinger, Jessica; Deleu, Dirk; Melikyan, Gayane; Ibrahim, Faisal; Akhtar, Naveed; Gourbali, Vanessa; Yaghi, Shadi; Caso, Valeria (2019)
    Background The relationship between different patterns of atrial fibrillation and early recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke is unclear. Purpose In a prospective cohort study, we evaluated the rates of early ischaemic recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation which included persistent and permanent atrial fibrillation. Methods In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, atrial fibrillation was categorised as paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation. Ischaemic recurrences were the composite of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack and symptomatic systemic embolism occurring within 90 days from acute index stroke. Results A total of 2150 patients (1155 females, 53.7%) were enrolled: 930 (43.3%) had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and 1220 (56.7%) sustained atrial fibrillation. During the 90-day follow-up, 111 ischaemic recurrences were observed in 107 patients: 31 in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (3.3%) and 76 with sustained atrial fibrillation (6.2%) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.86 (95% CI 1.24-2.81)). Patients with sustained atrial fibrillation were on average older, more likely to have diabetes mellitus, hypertension, history of stroke/ transient ischaemic attack, congestive heart failure, atrial enlargement, high baseline NIHSS-score and implanted pacemaker. After adjustment by Cox proportional hazard model, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with early ischaemic recurrences (adjusted HR 1.23 (95% CI 0.74-2.04)). Conclusions After acute ischaemic stroke, patients with sustained atrial fibrillation had a higher rate of early ischaemic recurrence than patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. After adjustment for relevant risk factors, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with a significantly higher risk of recurrence, thus suggesting that the risk profile associated with atrial fibrillation, rather than its pattern, is determinant for recurrence.
  • Bijwaard, Govert E.; Myrskylä, Mikko; Tynelius, Per; Rasmussen, Finn (2017)
    A negative educational gradient has been found for many causes of death. This association may be partly explained by confounding factors that affect both educational attainment and mortality. We correct the cause-specific educational gradient for observed individual background and unobserved family factors using an innovative method based on months lost due to a specific cause of death re-weighted by the probability of attaining a higher educational level. We use data on men with brothers from the Swedish Military Conscription Registry (1951-1983), linked to administrative registers. This dataset of some 700,000 men allows us to distinguish between five education levels and many causes of death. The empirical results reveal that raising the educational level from primary to tertiary would result in an additional 20 months of survival between ages 18 and 63. This improvement in mortality is mainly attributable to fewer deaths from external causes. The highly educated gain more than nine months due to the reduction in deaths from external causes, but gain only two months due to the reduction in cancer mortality and four months due to the reduction in cardiovascular mortality. Ignoring confounding would lead to an underestimation of the gains by educational attainment, especially for the less educated. Our results imply that if the education distribution of 50,000 Swedish men from the 1951 cohort were replaced with that of the corresponding 1983 cohort, 22% of the person-years that were lost to death between ages 18 and 63 would have been saved for this cohort. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
  • Sánez Tähtisalo, Heini; Hiltunen, Timo P.; Kenttä, Tuomas; Junttila, Juhani; Oikarinen, Lasse; Virolainen, Juha; Kontula, Kimmo K.; Porthan, Kimmo (2020)
    Background T-wave area dispersion (TW-Ad) is a novel electrocardiographic (ECG) repolarization marker associated with sudden cardiac death. However, limited data is available on the clinical correlates of TW-Ad. In addition, there are no previous studies on cardiovascular drug effects on TW-Ad. In this study, we examined the relation between TW-Ad and left ventricular mass. We also studied the effects of four commonly used antihypertensive drugs on TW-Ad. Methods A total of 242 moderately hypertensive males (age, 51±6 years; office systolic/diastolic blood pressure during placebo, 153±14/100±8 mmHg), participating in the GENRES study, were included. Left ventricular mass index was determined by transthoracic echocardiography. Antihypertensive four-week monotherapies (a diuretic, a beta-blocker, a calcium channel blocker, and an angiotensin receptor antagonist) were administered in a randomized rotational fashion. Four-week placebo periods preceded all monotherapies. The average value of measurements (over 1700 ECGs in total) from all available placebo periods served as a reference to which measurements during each drug period were compared. Results Lower, i.e. risk-associated TW-Ad values correlated with a higher left ventricular mass index (r = −0.14, p = 0.03). Bisoprolol, a beta-blocker, elicited a positive change in TW-Ad (p = 1.9×10−5), but the three other drugs had no significant effect on TW-Ad. Conclusions Our results show that TW-Ad is correlated with left ventricular mass and can be modified favorably by the use of bisoprolol, although demonstration of any effects on clinical endpoints requires long-term prospective studies. Altogether, our results suggest that TW-Ad is an ECG repolarization measure of left ventricular arrhythmogenic substrate.
  • Pradhapan, Paruthi; Tarvainen, Mika P.; Nieminen, Tuomo; Lehtinen, Rami; Nikus, Kjell; Lehtimaki, Terho; Kahonen, Mika; Viik, Jari (2014)
  • Kujjo, Loro L.; Laine, Tiina; Pereira, Ricardo J. G.; Kagawa, Wataru; Kurumizaka, Hitoshi; Yokoyama, Shigeyuki; Perez, Gloria I. (2010)
  • Holmberg, Ville; Soini, Hanna; Kivelä, Pia; Ollgren, Jukka; Ristola, Matti (2019)
    Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of death in HIV patients worldwide. Here we describe the epidemiology and outcome of HIV-TB co-infections in a high-income country with low TB incidence and integrated HIV and TB therapy according to European guidelines. Methods: This study was based on the HIV cohort of the Helsinki University Hospital which includes all HIV patients in the Helsinki region with a population of 1.5 million. Totally, 1939 HIV-positives who have been under follow-up between 1998 and 2015 were included. Results: TB was diagnosed in 53 (2.7%) of the HIV-patients. The TB incidence rate was higher in injecting drug users (IRR 3.15; 95% CI 1.33-7.52) and heterosexuals (IRR 3.46; 95% CI 1.64-7.29) compared to men having sex with men. The incidence rate was also higher in those born in Sub-Saharan Africa (IRR 3.53; 95% CI 1.78-7.03) compared to those born in Finland. There was a significant reduction in the total TB incidence rate of 59% per 6-year period between 1998 and 2015 (p <0.001). In injecting drug users there was a reduction in incidence rate from 1182 to 88 per 100,000 (p <0.001) and in people born in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2017 to 195 per 100,000 (p <0.001). Among the 53 HIV-TB co-infected cases, one female and 15 males died during follow up. HIV was the primary cause of death in five patients but none of the deaths were caused by TB. Conclusion: The incidence rate of tuberculosis among HIV-positives in Finland has been declining between 1998 and 2015. Among injecting drug users, the reduction is probably explained by harm reduction interventions and care in comprehensive care centers in Helsinki. The increased coverage of antiretroviral therapy is probably another main reason for the decline in TB incidence rates. Despite good treatment results for both HIV and TB, the all-cause mortality among Finnish males with HIV-TB was high, and common causes of death were intoxications and suicides.
  • EuroSIDA Study Grp; Amele, S.; Ristola, M.; Mocroft, A.; Aho, I. (2019)
    Objectives The aim of the study was to establish a methodology for evaluating the hepatitis C continuum of care in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected individuals and to characterize the continuum in Europe on 1 January 2015, prior to widespread access to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy. Methods Stages included in the continuum were as follows: anti-HCV antibody positive, HCV RNA tested, currently HCV RNA positive, ever HCV RNA positive, ever received HCV treatment, completed HCV treatment, follow-up HCV RNA test, and cure. Sustained virological response (SVR) could only be assessed for those with a follow-up HCV RNA test and was defined as a negative HCV RNA result measured > 12 or 24 weeks after stopping treatment. Results Numbers and percentages for the stages of the HCV continuum of care were as follows: anti-HCV positive (n = 5173), HCV RNA tested (4207 of 5173; 81.3%), currently HCV RNA positive (3179 of 5173; 61.5%), ever HCV RNA positive (n = 3876), initiated HCV treatment (1693 of 3876; 43.7%), completed HCV treatment (1598 of 3876; 41.2%), follow-up HCV RNA test to allow SVR assessment (1195 of 3876; 30.8%), and cure (629 of 3876; 16.2%). The proportion that achieved SVR was 52.6% (629 of 1195). There were significant differences between regions at each stage of the continuum (P <0.0001). Conclusions In the proposed HCV continuum of care for HIV/HCV-coinfected individuals, we found major gaps at all stages, with almost 20% of anti-HCV-positive individuals having no documented HCV RNA test and a low proportion achieving SVR, in the pre-DAA era.
  • Katajisto, Milla; Laitinen, Tarja (2017)
    Aims: To study the short- and long-term results of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) given in the Helsinki University Heart and Lung Center and to understand the hospital resources used to treat severe COPD exacerbations in the city of Helsinki. Materials and methods: Seventy-eight inactive patients with severe COPD were recruited for a PR course; three of them did not finish the course. The course took 6-8 weeks and included 11-16 supervised exercise sessions. Using electronic medical records, we studied all COPD patients with hospital admission in the city of Helsinki in 2014, including COPD diagnosis, criteria for exacerbation, and potential exclusion/inclusion criteria for PR. Results: Seventy-five of the patients finished the PR course and 92% of those patients showed clinically significant improvement. Their hospital days were reduced by 54% when compared to the year before. At 1 year after the course, 53% of the patients reported that they have continued with regular exercise training. In the city of Helsinki, 437 COPD patients were treated in a hospital due to exacerbation during 2014. On the basis of their electronic medical records, 57% of them would be suitable for PR. According to a rough estimate, 10%-20% hospital days could be saved annually if PR was available to all, assuming that the PR results would be as good as those shown here. Conclusions: The study showed that in a real-world setting, PR is efficient when measured by saved hospital days in severe COPD. Half of the patients could be motivated to continue exercising on their own.
  • Döveling, Katrin; Harju, Anu Annika; Sommer, Denise (2018)
    Research on the processes of mediatization aims to explore the mutual shaping of media and social life and how new media technologies influence and infiltrate social practices and cultural life. We extend this discussion of media’s role in transforming the everyday by including in the discussion the mediatization of emotion and discuss what we conceptualize as digital affect culture(s). We understand these as relational, contextual, globally emergent spaces in the digital environment where affective flows construct atmospheres of emotional and cultural belonging by way of emotional resonance and alignment. Approaching emotion as a cultural practice, in terms of affect, as something people do instead of have, we discuss how digital affect culture(s) traverse the digital terrains and construct pockets of culture-specific communities of affective practice. We draw on existing empirical research on digital memorial culture to empirically illustrate how digital affect culture manifests on micro, meso, and macro levels and elaborate on the constitutive characteristics of digital affect culture. We conclude with implications of this conceptualization for theoretical advancement and empirical research.
  • GBD 2019 Demographics (2020)
    Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9) in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in 2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years (56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • GBD 2017 Mortality Collaborators (2018)
    Background Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systetns, sample registration systetns, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings Globally, 18.7% (95% uncertainty interval 18.4-19.0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58.8% (58.2-59.3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48.1 years (46.5-49.6) to 70.5 years (70.1-70.8) for men and from 52.9 years (51.7-54.0) to 75.6 years (75.3-75.9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49.1 years (46.5-51.7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87.6 years (86.9-88.1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216.0 deaths (196.3-238.1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38.9 deaths (35.6-42.83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5.4 million (5.2-5.6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult tnales, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, wotnen, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. Copyright C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Wang, Haidong; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraha, Haftom Niguse; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji; Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O.; Adetokunboh, Olatunji; Afshin, Ashkan; Aggarwal, Rakesh; Agrawal, Anurag; Agrawal, Sutapa; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Amani Nidhal; Aichour, Ibthiel; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Aiyar, Sneha; Akanda, Shafqat; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Alabed, Samer; Alahdab, Fares; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldridge, Robert William; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Aljunid, Syed M.; Alkaabi, Juma M.; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allam, Shalini D.; Allebeck, Peter; Kivimaki, Mika; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Weiderpass, Elisabete; GBD 2016 Mortality Collaborators (2017)
    Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
  • Kiss, Boldizsar; Fekete-Györ, Alexandra; Szakal-Toth, Zsofia; Parkanyi, Anna; Jenei, Zsigmond; Nyeki, Peter; Becker, David; Molnar, Levente; Ruzsa, Zoltan; Der, Gabor; Kovacs, Enikö; Pilecky, David; Geller, Laszlo; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Merkely, Bela; Zima, Endre (2021)
    Introduction: Sudden cardiac death is one of the most significant cardiovascular causes of death worldwide. Although there have been immense methodological and technical advances in the field of cardiopulmonary resuscitation and following intensive care in the last decade, currently there are only a few validated risk-stratification scoring systems for the quick and reliable estimation of the mortality risk of these patients at the time of admission to the intensive care unit. Objective: Our aim was to correlate the mortality prediction risk points calculated by CardShock Risk Score (CSRS) and modified (m) CSRS based on the admission data of the post-cardiac arrest syndrome (PCAS) patients. Methods: The medical records of 172 out-of-hospital resuscitated cardiac arrest patients, who were admitted at the Heart and Vascular Centre of Semmelweis University, were screened retrospectively. Out of the 172 selected patients, 123 were eligible for inclusion to calculate CSRS and mCSRS. Based on CSRS score, we generated three different groups of patients, with scores 1 to 3, 4 to 6, and 7+, respectively. Mortality data of the groups were compared by log-rank test. Results: Mean age of the patients was 63.6 years (69% male), the cause of sudden cardiac death was acut coronary syndrome in 80% of the cases. The early and late mortality was predicted by neurological status, serum lactate level, renal function, initial rhythm, and the need of catecholamines. Using mCSRS, a significant survival difference was proven in between the groups "1-3" vs "4-6" (p Conclusion: Compared to the CSRS, the mCSRS expanded with the 2 additional weighting points differentiates more specifically the low-moderate and high survival groups in the PCAS patient population treated in our institute.
  • Barber, Ryan M.; Fullman, Nancy; Sorensen, Reed J. D.; Bollyky, Thomas; McKee, Martin; Nolte, Ellen; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbafati, Cristiana; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abdurahman, Ahmed Abdulahi; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Biju; Abreha, Girmatsion Fisseha; Adane, Kelemework; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O.; Afshin, Ashkan; Agarwal, Arnav; Agarwal, Sanjay Kumar; Agarwal, Sunilkumar; Agrawal, Anurag; Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad; Ahmadi, Alireza; Ahmed, Kedir Yimam; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore; Alam, Sayed Saidul; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alene, Kefyalew Addis; Alexander, Lily; Ali, Raghib; Ali, Syed Danish; Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza; Alkerwi, Ala'a; Alla, Francois; Allebeck, Peter; Allen, Christine; Al-Raddadi, Rajaa; Lallukka, Tea; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Weiderpass, Elisabete; GBD 2015 Healthcare Access Quality (2017)
    Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.