Browsing by Subject "CLIMATE"

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  • Brugnara, Y.; Auchmann, R.; Broennimann, S.; Allan, R. J.; Auer, I.; Barriendos, M.; Bergstrom, H.; Bhend, J.; Brazdil, R.; Compo, G. P.; Cornes, R. C.; Dominguez-Castro, F.; van Engelen, A. F. V.; Filipiak, J.; Holopainen, J.; Jourdain, S.; Kunz, M.; Luterbacher, J.; Maugeri, M.; Mercalli, L.; Moberg, A.; Mock, C. J.; Pichard, G.; Reznckova, L.; van der Schrier, G.; Slonosky, V.; Ustrnul, Z.; Valente, M. A.; Wypych, A.; Yin, X. (2015)
    The eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia) in April 1815 is the largest documented volcanic eruption in history. It is associated with a large global cooling during the following year, felt particularly in parts of Europe and North America, where the year 1816 became known as the "year without a summer". This paper describes an effort made to collect surface meteorological observations from the early instrumental period, with a focus on the years of and immediately following the eruption (1815-1817). Although the collection aimed in particular at pressure observations, correspondent temperature observations were also recovered. Some of the series had already been described in the literature, but a large part of the data, recently digitised from original weather diaries and contemporary magazines and newspapers, is presented here for the first time. The collection puts together more than 50 sub-daily series from land observatories in Europe and North America and from ships in the tropics. The pressure observations have been corrected for temperature and gravity and reduced to mean sea level. Moreover, an additional statistical correction was applied to take into account common error sources in mercury barometers. To assess the reliability of the corrected data set, the variance in the pressure observations is compared with modern climatologies, and single observations are used for synoptic analyses of three case studies in Europe. All raw observations will be made available to the scientific community in the International Surface Pressure Databank.
  • Norberg, Anna; Abrego Antia, Nerea; Blanchet, F. Guillaume; Adler, Frederick R.; Anderson, Barbara J.; Anttila, Jani; Araújo, Miguel B.; Dallas, Tad Anthony; Dunson, David; Elith, Jane; Foster, Scott; Fox, Richard; Franklin, Janet; Godsoe, William; Guisan, Antoine; O'Hara, Bob; Hill, Nicole A.; Holt, Robert D.; Hui, Francis K.C; Husby, Magne; Kålås, John Atle; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Luoto, Miska; Mod, Heidi K.; Newell, Graeme; Renner, Ian; Roslin, Tomas Valter; Soininen, Janne; Thuiller, Wilfried; Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri; Warton, David; White, Matt; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Gravel, Dominique; Ovaskainen, Otso Tapio (2019)
    A large array of species distribution model (SDM) approaches has been developed for explaining and predicting the occurrences of individual species or species assemblages. Given the wealth of existing models, it is unclear which models perform best for interpolation or extrapolation of existing data sets, particularly when one is concerned with species assemblages. We compared the predictive performance of 33 variants of 15 widely applied and recently emerged SDMs in the context of multispecies data, including both joint SDMs that model multiple species together, and stacked SDMs that model each species individually combining the predictions afterward. We offer a comprehensive evaluation of these SDM approaches by examining their performance in predicting withheld empirical validation data of different sizes representing five different taxonomic groups, and for prediction tasks related to both interpolation and extrapolation. We measure predictive performance by 12 measures of accuracy, discrimination power, calibration, and precision of predictions, for the biological levels of species occurrence, species richness, and community composition. Our results show large variation among the models in their predictive performance, especially for communities comprising many species that are rare. The results do not reveal any major trade-offs among measures of model performance; the same models performed generally well in terms of accuracy, discrimination, and calibration, and for the biological levels of individual species, species richness, and community composition. In contrast, the models that gave the most precise predictions were not well calibrated, suggesting that poorly performing models can make overconfident predictions. However, none of the models performed well for all prediction tasks. As a general strategy, we therefore propose that researchers fit a small set of models showing complementary performance, and then apply a cross-validation procedure involving separate data to establish which of these models performs best for the goal of the study.
  • Silva, Sofia Marques; Townsend Peterson, A.; Carneiro, Lincoln; Tortola Burlamaqui, Tiberio Cesar; Ribas, Camila C.; Sousa-Neves, Tiago; Miranda, Leonardo S.; Fernandes, Alexandre M.; d'Horta, Fernando M.; Araujo-Silva, Lucas Eduardo; Batista, Romina; Bandeira, Cinthia H. M. M.; Dantas, Sidnei M.; Ferreira, Mateus; Martins, Denise M.; Oliveira, Joiciane; Rocha, Taina C.; Sardelli, Carla H.; Thom, Gregory; Rego, Pericles Sena; Santos, Marcos Persio; Sequeira, Fernando; Vallinoto, Marcelo; Aleixo, Alexandre (2019)
    The Amazon is the primary source of Neotropical diversity and a nexus for discussions on processes that drive biotic diversification. Biogeographers have focused on the roles of rivers and Pleistocene climate change in explaining high rates of speciation. We combine phylogeographic and niche-based paleodistributional projections for 23 upland terra firme forest bird lineages from across the Amazon to derive a new model of regional biological diversification. We found that climate-driven refugial dynamics interact with dynamic riverine barriers to produce a dominant pattern: Older lineages in the wetter western and northern parts of the Amazon gave rise to lineages in the drier southern and eastern parts. This climate/drainage basin evolution interaction links landscape dynamics with biotic diversification and explains the east-west diversity gradients across the Amazon.
  • Sokhi, Ranjeet S.; Singh, Vikas; Querol, Xavier; Finardi, Sandro; Targino, Admir Creso; Andrade, Maria de Fatima; Pavlovic, Radenko; Garland, Rebecca M.; Massague, Jordi; Kong, Shaofei; Baklanov, Alexander; Ren, Lu; Tarasova, Oksana; Carmichael, Greg; Peuch, Vincent-Henri; Anand, Vrinda; Arbilla, Graciela; Badali, Kaitlin; Beig, Gufran; Carlos Belalcazar, Luis; Bolignano, Andrea; Brimblecombe, Peter; Camacho, Patricia; Casallas, Alejandro; Charland, Jean-Pierre; Choi, Jason; Chourdakis, Eleftherios; Coll, Isabelle; Collins, Marty; Cyrys, Josef; da Silva, Cleyton Martins; Di Giosa, Alessandro Domenico; Di Leo, Anna; Ferro, Camilo; Gavidia-Calderon, Mario; Gayen, Amiya; Ginzburg, Alexander; Godefroy, Fabrice; Alexandra Gonzalez, Yuri; Guevara-Luna, Marco; Haque, Sk Mafizul; Havenga, Henno; Herod, Dennis; Horrak, Urmas; Hussein, Tareq; Ibarra, Sergio; Jaimes, Monica; Kaasik, Marko; Kousa, Anu; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Kulmala, Markku; Kuula, Joel; Petäjä, Tuukka (2021)
    This global study, which has been coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) programme, aims to understand the behaviour of key air pollutant species during the COVID-19 pandemic period of exceptionally low emissions across the globe. We investigated the effects of the differences in both emissions and regional and local meteorology in 2020 compared with the period 2015-2019. By adopting a globally consistent approach, this comprehensive observational analysis focuses on changes in air quality in and around cities across the globe for the following air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, PMC (coarse fraction of PM), NO2, SO2, NOx, CO, O-3 and the total gaseous oxidant (O-X = NO2 + O-3) during the pre-lockdown, partial lockdown, full lockdown and two relaxation periods spanning from January to September 2020. The analysis is based on in situ ground-based air quality observations at over 540 traffic, background and rural stations, from 63 cities and covering 25 countries over seven geographical regions of the world. Anomalies in the air pollutant concentrations (increases or decreases during 2020 periods compared to equivalent 2015-2019 periods) were calculated and the possible effects of meteorological conditions were analysed by computing anomalies from ERA5 reanalyses and local observations for these periods. We observed a positive correlation between the reductions in NO2 and NOx concentrations and peoples' mobility for most cities. A correlation between PMC and mobility changes was also seen for some Asian and South American cities. A clear signal was not observed for other pollutants, suggesting that sources besides vehicular emissions also substantially contributed to the change in air quality. As a global and regional overview of the changes in ambient concentrations of key air quality species, we observed decreases of up to about 70% in mean NO2 and between 30% and 40% in mean PM2.5 concentrations over 2020 full lockdown compared to the same period in 2015-2019. However, PM2.5 exhibited complex signals, even within the same region, with increases in some Spanish cities, attributed mainly to the long-range transport of African dust and/or biomass burning (corroborated with the analysis of NO2/CO ratio). Some Chinese cities showed similar increases in PM2.5 during the lockdown periods, but in this case, it was likely due to secondary PM formation. Changes in O-3 concentrations were highly heterogeneous, with no overall change or small increases (as in the case of Europe), and positive anomalies of 25% and 30% in East Asia and South America, respectively, with Colombia showing the largest positive anomaly of similar to 70%. The SO2 anomalies were negative for 2020 compared to 2015-2019 (between similar to 25 to 60%) for all regions. For CO, negative anomalies were observed for all regions with the largest decrease for South America of up to similar to 40%. The NO2/CO ratio indicated that specific sites (such as those in Spanish cities) were affected by biomass burning plumes, which outweighed the NO2 decrease due to the general reduction in mobility (ratio of similar to 60%). Analysis of the total oxidant (OX = NO2 + O-3) showed that primary NO2 emissions at urban locations were greater than the O-3 production, whereas at background sites, O-X was mostly driven by the regional contributions rather than local NO2 and O-3 concentrations. The present study clearly highlights the importance of meteorology and episodic contributions (e.g., from dust, domestic, agricultural biomass burning and crop fertilizing) when analysing air quality in and around cities even during large emissions reductions. There is still the need to better understand how the chemical responses of secondary pollutants to emission change under complex meteorological conditions, along with climate change and socio-economic drivers may affect future air quality. The implications for regional and global policies are also significant, as our study clearly indicates that PM2.5 concentrations would not likely meet the World Health Organization guidelines in many parts of the world, despite the drastic reductions in mobility. Consequently, revisions of air quality regulation (e.g., the Gothenburg Protocol) with more ambitious targets that are specific to the different regions of the world may well be required.
  • Nevalainen, Liisa; Kivila, E. Henriikka; Luoto, Tomi P.; Rantala, Marttiina V.; Van Damme, Kay (2019)
    A long hidden chydorid (Chydoridae, Cladocera) taxon, first found as fossil specimens and recently redefined as Rhynchotalona latens (Sarmaja-Korjonen et al., Hydrobiologia 436: 165-169, 2000) is investigated for its biogeography and ecology. Late Holocene sediment sequence from Lake Sylvilampi, NE Finnish Lapland, and R. latens spatial distribution in relation to limno-climatic attributes in Finland were examined. Principal component analyses of fossil cladoceran communities showed that R. latens is mostly affiliated with Alonella excisa-Alonopsis elongata-Alonella nana species pool. Generalized linear modeling of R. latens responses to limno-climatic variation indicated that it prefers acidic, mesotrophic, humic and shallow lakes with organic sediments in NE Lapland and has a north boreal-subarctic climatic affiliation. At the northern end of its geographical distribution (NE Lapland), it reproduces with abundant gamogenesis under environmental stress. The specialized taxon is a benthic detritivore and scraper and has a Holarctic northern-alpine distribution. It is a glacial relict associated with modern analogs of periglacial aquatic environments, and it occurs in semi-aquatic wetlands, lush lake littorals and clear and cold waters. Examination of chydorids as bioindicators, especially those with restricted niches, allow us to understand biodiversity responses of lake littorals under changing limno-climatic regimes.
  • Fang, Keyan; Wilmking, Martin; Davi, Nicole; Zhou, Feifei; Liu, Changzhi (2014)
  • Halme, Eelis; Ihalainen, Olli; Korpela, Ilkka; Mõttus, Matti (2022)
    The retrieval of forest variables from optical remote sensing data using physically-based models is an ill-posed problem and does not make full use of the high spatial resolution imagery that is becoming available globally. A possible solution to this is to use prior information about the retrieved variables, which constrains the possible solutions and reduces uncertainty in forest variable estimation. Therefore, we tried to quantify physically-based parameters that could be retrieved using the second-order statistics of measured and simulated very-high-resolution (pixel size less than 1 m) images of Finnish boreal forests. These forests have a well-defined structure and are usually not closed, i.e. the reflected signal has a considerable contribution from a green forest floor. We retrieved the second-order statistics using variograms and Fourier amplitude spectra. We found, in line with previous studies, that the range of variograms correlates well (r = 0.83) with the mean crown diameter for spatially homogeneous forest patches, and it can be used to estimate crown diameters with reasonable accuracy (RMSE = 0.42 m). We present a novel approach, which uses the Fourier amplitude spectrum to study the spatial structure of a forest. The approach provided encouraging results with the measured data: despite the lower accuracy (RMSE = 0.67 m) compared with variograms, we found that it could also be used to estimate mean crown diameters for heterogeneous forest areas. The Fourier amplitude spectrum approach did not work with the simulated images. Our results highlight the possibility to obtain further information from very-high-resolution images of forests to solve the ill-posed problem of forest variable estimation from optical remote sensing data using physically-based models.
  • Gedefaw, Melakeneh G.; Geli, Hatim M. E.; Abera, Temesgen (2021)
    Rangelands provide significant socioeconomic and environmental benefits to humans. However, climate variability and anthropogenic drivers can negatively impact rangeland productivity. The main goal of this study was to investigate structural and productivity changes in rangeland ecosystems in New Mexico (NM), in the southwestern United States of America during the 1984-2015 period. This goal was achieved by applying the time series segmented residual trend analysis (TSS-RESTREND) method, using datasets of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies and precipitation from Parameter elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and developing an assessment framework. The results indicated that about 17.6% and 12.8% of NM experienced a decrease and an increase in productivity, respectively. More than half of the state (55.6%) had insignificant change productivity, 10.8% was classified as indeterminant, and 3.2% was considered as agriculture. A decrease in productivity was observed in 2.2%, 4.5%, and 1.7% of NM's grassland, shrubland, and ever green forest land cover classes, respectively. Significant decrease in productivity was observed in the northeastern and southeastern quadrants of NM while significant increase was observed in northwestern, southwestern, and a small portion of the southeastern quadrants. The timing of detected breakpoints coincided with some of NM's drought events as indicated by the self-calibrated Palmar Drought Severity Index as their number increased since 2000s following a similar increase in drought severity. Some breakpoints were concurrent with some fire events. The combination of these two types of disturbances can partly explain the emergence of breakpoints with degradation in productivity. Using the breakpoint assessment framework developed in this study, the observed degradation based on the TSS-RESTREND showed only 55% agreement with the Rangeland Productivity Monitoring Service (RPMS) data. There was an agreement between the TSS-RESTREND and RPMS on the occurrence of significant degradation in productivity over the grasslands and shrublands within the Arizona/NM Tablelands and in the Chihuahua Desert ecoregions, respectively. This assessment of NM's vegetation productivity is critical to support the decision-making process for rangeland management; address challenges related to the sustainability of forage supply and livestock production; conserve the biodiversity of rangelands ecosystems; and increase their resilience. Future analysis should consider the effects of rising temperatures and drought on rangeland degradation and productivity.
  • Holopainen, Sari; Christensen, Thomas Kjaer; Pöysä, Hannu; Väänänen, Veli-Matti; Rintala, Jukka; Fox, Anthony D. (2018)
    Ducks are important game species, hunted in several countries throughout their annual cycle. We investigated whether the size of the annual duck harvest in Finland and Denmark reflected annual reproductive output in three common quarry duck species. Finland represents an important breeding area and Denmark important staging/wintering grounds for common teal (Anas crecca), Eurasian wigeon (Mareca penelope) and common goldeneye (Bucephala clangula). We assessed whether (i) annual duck harvest in these two countries correlated with variation in Finnish reproductive output or adult population size during 1990-2016 and (ii) variation in reproductive output of Finnish ducks was reflected in the juvenile ratios of birds harvested in Finland (2005-2007, 2014-2016) or Denmark (1990-2016). We hypothesised that variation in Finnish reproductive output would positively affect the size and juvenile ratio of the harvest, and that this effect would be stronger closer to the breeding grounds. Our data showed that the annual harvest of goldeneye in Finland was positively correlated with reproductive output, a desirable basis for applying sustainable management to this species. Teal and wigeon have much longer, more complex flyways, and their harvest did not mirror the annual production of young, although the wigeon harvest in Denmark increased with increasing juvenile ratio there. For these populations, we need to better define population units if we are to be able to assess harvest sustainability. We urgently need to monitor duck breeding success and harvest at larger spatial scales to support a comprehensive analysis of how well the harvest reflects reproductive output.
  • Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Uotila, Petteri; Vihma, Timo (2019)
    Abstract: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its proposed influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in November-December 2016 and link them to increased planetary wave generation associated with cold Siberian anomalies followed by troposphere-stratosphere dynamical coupling. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies, in particular those over the Barents-Kara Seas, do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized on 1 October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and negative North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as their link with the Siberian temperatures. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing associated with Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts from October to December. Plain Language Summary: The warm Arctic-cold continent pattern is an observed, large-scale pattern of near-surface temperatures where the Arctic is warmer than average and Siberia is colder than average. This pattern was of record strength in October 2016, providing the opportunity to test its influence on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and the possibility of skillful long-range forecasts. It has been proposed that the warm Arctic-cold continent pattern can drive large atmospheric waves, which are able to travel from the troposphere into the stratosphere, where they weaken the strong wintertime winds that make up the stratospheric polar vortex. A weakened polar vortex can then lead to changes in the surface pressure that can affect weather patterns. We find a record weak polar stratospheric vortex in late autumn 2016 and link that to cold Siberian anomalies. At the same time the warm Arctic anomalies do not appear to play an important role in forcing the atmospheric circulation. Long-range forecasts initialized in October 2016 reproduced both the weak polar vortex and resulting surface pressure patterns. Our results support the stratospheric pathway for atmospheric circulation forcing by Siberian surface anomalies and uncover a source of skill for subseasonal forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
  • Hardisty, Alex R.; Bacall, Finn; Beard, Niall; Balcazar-Vargas, Maria-Paula; Balech, Bachir; Barcza, Zoltan; Bourlat, Sarah J.; De Giovanni, Renato; de Jong, Yde; De Leo, Francesca; Dobor, Laura; Donvito, Giacinto; Fellows, Donal; Guerra, Antonio Fernandez; Ferreira, Nuno; Fetyukova, Yuliya; Fosso, Bruno; Giddy, Jonathan; Goble, Carole; Guentsch, Anton; Haines, Robert; Ernst, Vera Hernandez; Hettling, Hannes; Hidy, Dora; Horvath, Ferenc; Ittzes, Dora; Ittzes, Peter; Jones, Andrew; Kottmann, Renzo; Kulawik, Robert; Leidenberger, Sonja; Lyytikäinen-Saarenmaa, Paivi; Mathew, Cherian; Morrison, Norman; Nenadic, Aleksandra; de la Hidalga, Abraham Nieva; Obst, Matthias; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Paymal, Elisabeth; Pesole, Graziano; Pinto, Salvatore; Poigne, Axel; Fernandez, Francisco Quevedo; Santamaria, Monica; Saarenmaa, Hannu; Sipos, Gergely; Sylla, Karl-Heinz; Tähtinen, Marko; Vicario, Saverio; Vos, Rutger Aldo; Williams, Alan R.; Yilmaz, Pelin (2016)
    Background: Making forecasts about biodiversity and giving support to policy relies increasingly on large collections of data held electronically, and on substantial computational capability and capacity to analyse, model, simulate and predict using such data. However, the physically distributed nature of data resources and of expertise in advanced analytical tools creates many challenges for the modern scientist. Across the wider biological sciences, presenting such capabilities on the Internet (as "Web services") and using scientific workflow systems to compose them for particular tasks is a practical way to carry out robust "in silico" science. However, use of this approach in biodiversity science and ecology has thus far been quite limited. Results: BioVeL is a virtual laboratory for data analysis and modelling in biodiversity science and ecology, freely accessible via the Internet. BioVeL includes functions for accessing and analysing data through curated Web services; for performing complex in silico analysis through exposure of R programs, workflows, and batch processing functions; for on- line collaboration through sharing of workflows and workflow runs; for experiment documentation through reproducibility and repeatability; and for computational support via seamless connections to supporting computing infrastructures. We developed and improved more than 60 Web services with significant potential in many different kinds of data analysis and modelling tasks. We composed reusable workflows using these Web services, also incorporating R programs. Deploying these tools into an easy-to-use and accessible 'virtual laboratory', free via the Internet, we applied the workflows in several diverse case studies. We opened the virtual laboratory for public use and through a programme of external engagement we actively encouraged scientists and third party application and tool developers to try out the services and contribute to the activity. Conclusions: Our work shows we can deliver an operational, scalable and flexible Internet-based virtual laboratory to meet new demands for data processing and analysis in biodiversity science and ecology. In particular, we have successfully integrated existing and popular tools and practices from different scientific disciplines to be used in biodiversity and ecological research.
  • Lai, Tin-Yu; Salminen, Jani; Jäppinen, Jukka-Pekka; Koljonen, Saija; Mononen, Laura; Nieminen, Emmi; Vihervaara, Petteri; Oinonen, Soile (2018)
    In this paper, we examine how progress on ecosystem service indicators could contribute to ecosystem accounting within the scope of environmental-economic accounting in Finland. We propose an integration framework and examine the integration of ecosystem service indicators into environmental-economic accounting with two case studies relevant for Finland: (1) water-related ecosystem services and (2) the ecosystem services of fish provisioning in marine ecosystems. In light of these case studies, we evaluate the relevance of existing Finnish ecosystem service indicators, the data availability for ecosystem accounting in Finland, and the applicability of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting o Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EEA) framework to integrate Finnish ecosystem service indicators and other relevant data into environmental-economic accounts. The results indicate that the present ecosystem service indicators can assist in creating a basis for ecosystem accounting, but the indicators require further elaboration to be more compatible with the existing environmental-economic accounting system.
  • Rasmussen, Christian M. Ø.; Kröger, Björn; Nielsen, Morten L.; Colmenar, Jorge (2019)
    The greatest relative changes in marine biodiversity accumulation occurred during the Early Paleozoic. The precision of temporal constraints on these changes is crude, hampering our understanding of their timing, duration, and links to causal mechanisms. We match fossil occurrence data to their lithostratigraphical ranges in the Paleobiology Database and correlate this inferred taxon range to a constructed set of biostratigraphically defined high-resolution time slices. In addition, we apply capture-recapture modeling approaches to calculate a biodiversity curve that also considers taphonomy and sampling biases with four times better resolution of previous estimates. Our method reveals a stepwise biodiversity increase with distinct Cambrian and Ordovician radiation events that are clearly separated by a 50-million-year-long period of slow biodiversity accumulation. The Ordovician Radiation is confined to a 15-million-year phase after which the Late Ordovician extinctions lowered generic richness and further delayed a biodiversity rebound by at least 35 million years. Based on a first-differences approach on potential abiotic drivers controlling richness, we find an overall correlation with oxygen levels, with temperature also exhibiting a coordinated trend once equatorial sea surface temperatures fell to present-day levels during the Middle Ordovician Darriwilian Age. Contrary to the traditional view of the Late Ordovician extinctions, our study suggests a protracted crisis interval linked to intense volcanism during the middle Late Ordovician Katian Age. As richness levels did not return to prior levels during the Silurian-a time of continental amalgamation-we further argue that plate tectonics exerted an overarching control on biodiversity accumulation.
  • Saarela, Taija; Rissanen, Antti J.; Ojala, Anne; Pumpanen, Jukka; Aalto, Sanni L.; Tiirola, Marja; Vesala, Timo; Jäntti, Helena (2020)
    Freshwater ecosystems represent a significant natural source of methane (CH4). CH4 produced through anaerobic decomposition of organic matter (OM) in lake sediment and water column can be either oxidized to carbon dioxide (CO2) by methanotrophic microbes or emitted to the atmosphere. While the role of CH4 oxidation as a CH4 sink is widely accepted, neither the magnitude nor the drivers behind CH4 oxidation are well constrained. In this study, we aimed to gain more specific insight into CH4 oxidation in the water column of a seasonally stratified, typical boreal lake, particularly under hypoxic conditions. We used (CH4)-C-13 incubations to determine the active CH4 oxidation sites and the potential CH4 oxidation rates in the water column, and we measured environmental variables that could explain CH4 oxidation in the water column. During hypolimnetic hypoxia, 91% of available CH4 was oxidized in the active CH4 oxidation zone, where the potential CH4 oxidation rates gradually increased from the oxycline to the hypolimnion. Our results showed that in warm springs, which become more frequent, early thermal stratification with cold well-oxygenated hypolimnion delays the period of hypolimnetic hypoxia and limits CH4 production. Thus, the delayed development of hypolimnetic hypoxia may partially counteract the expected increase in the lacustrine CH4 emissions caused by the increasing organic carbon load from forested catchments.
  • Schafstall, Nick; Whitehouse, Nicki; Kuosmanen, Niina; Svobodova-Svitavska, Helena; Saulnier, Melanie; Chiverrell, Richard C.; Fleischer, Peter; Kunes, Petr; Clear, Jennifer L. (2020)
    Montane biomes are niche environments high in biodiversity with a variety of habitats. Often isolated, these non-continuous remnant ecosystems inhabit narrow ecological zones putting them under threat from changing climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressure. Twelve sediment cores were retrieved from a peat bog in Tatra National Park, Slovakia, and correlated to each other by wiggle-matching geochemical signals derived from micro-XRF scanning, to make a reconstruction of past conditions. A fossil beetle (Coleoptera) record, covering the last 1000 years at 50- to 100-year resolution, gives a new insight into changing flora and fauna in this region. Our findings reveal a diverse beetle community with varied ecological groups inhabiting a range of forest, meadow and synanthropic habitats. Changes in the beetle community were related to changes in the landscape, driven by anthropogenic activities. The first clear evidence for human activity in the area occurs c. 1250 CE and coincides with the arrival of beetle species living on the dung of domesticated animals (e.g. Aphodius spp.). From 1500 CE, human (re)settlement, and activities such as pasturing and charcoal burning, appear to have had a pronounced effect on the beetle community. Local beetle diversity declined steadily towards the present day, likely due to an infilling of the forest hollow leading to a decrease in moisture level. We conclude that beetle communities are directly affected by anthropogenic intensity and land-use change. When aiming to preserve or restore natural forest conditions, recording their past changes in diversity can help guide conservation and restoration. In doing so, it is important to look back beyond the time of significant human impact, and for this, information contained in paleoecological records is irreplaceable.
  • Kröger, Björn (2018)
    Near-equatorial peak diversities are a prominent first-order feature of today's latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), but were not a persistent pattern throughout geological time. In an analysis of Ordovician (485-444 Ma) fossil occurrences, an equatorward shift of the latitudinal diversity peak can be detected. A modern-type LDG and out-of-the-tropics range shift pattern were synchronously established during emerging icehouse conditions at the climax of the Great Ordovician Biodiversity Event. The changes in the LDG pattern and range shift trends can be best explained as a consequence of global cooling during the Middle Ordovician and of diversification in the tropical realm following a greenhouse period with temperatures too hot to support diverse tropical marine life. These results substantiate a fundamental role of temperature changes in establishing global first-order diversity patterns.
  • Musilova, Zuzana; Musil, Petr; Zouhar, Jan; Senkyrova, Adela; Pavon-Jordan, Diego; Nummi, Petri (2022)
    Understanding species habitat use and factors affecting changes in their distributions are necessary to promote the conservation of any biological community. We evaluated the changes in wetland use of the non-breeding waterbird community. Based on long-term citizen-science data (1988-2020), we tested the hypotheses that wetland use is associated with species diet and potential range-shift drivers (the tendency to occupy the same sites in consecutive years-site affinity-and the species' average temperature across its wintering range-species temperature index). We analysed species-specific wetland use of 25 species of waterbirds wintering in Czechia over a period of 33 years. The analyses explained variability in trends in numbers of the studied waterbird species across four inland wetland types: reservoirs; fishponds; industrial waters created by flooding of former mining sites; and running waters. Trends in waterbird abundance positively correlated with species' diet on fishponds, industrial and running waters. Among the diet groups, invertivores showed the largest increase in abundances on industrial waters, closely followed by herbivores. Herbivores showed the largest increase in abundances in fishponds, and piscivores did so in running waters. Regarding range-shift drivers, species with higher site affinity showed higher abundances on running waters, while species with low species temperature index (i.e. wintering on average in sites with lower temperature) were more abundant on reservoirs. The abundance of both warm-dwelling and species with low site affinity increased on fishponds and industrial waters. Our findings suggest that the increased importance of the wetland types considered here for wintering waterbirds is likely to be linked to diet related changes in habitat use and changes in species distributions; and highlight that wintering waterbirds are expected to select sites with higher availability of food, higher energy content, and lower foraging cost. Recent and rapid changes in species distributions may lead to a decrease in the effectiveness of national and international conservation efforts. When planning conservation measures, it should be kept in mind that climate change does not only imply large-scale north/north-eastwards shifts of entire waterbird distributions, but can also modify the use of the habitats by waterbird species inside their traditional wintering range.
  • Kokkonen, T. V.; Grimmond, C. S. B.; Christen, A.; Oke, T. R.; Järvi, L. (2018)
    Hydrological cycles of two suburban neighborhoods in Vancouver, BC, during initial urban development and subsequent urban densification (1920-2010) are examined using the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme. The two neighborhoods have different surface characteristics (as determined from aerial photographs) which impact the hydrological processes. Unlike previous studies of the effect of urbanization on the local hydrology, densification of already built lots is explored with a focus on the neighborhood scale. Human behavioral changes to irrigation are accounted for in the simulations. Irrigation is the dominant factor, accounting for up to 56% of the water input on an annual basis in the study areas. This may surpass garden needs and go to runoff. Irrigating once a week would provide sufficient water for the garden. Without irrigation, evaporation would have decreased over the 91years at a rate of up to 1.4mm/year and runoff increased at 4.0mm/year with the increase in impervious cover. Similarly without irrigation, the ratio of sensible heat flux to the available energy would have increased over the 91years at a rate of up to 0.003 per year. Urbanization and densification cause an increase in runoff and increase risk of surface flooding. Small daily runoff events with short return periods have increased over the century, whereas the occurrence of heavy daily runoff events (return period>52 days) are not affected. The results can help us to understand the dominant factors in the suburban hydrological cycle and can inform urban planning.
  • von Weissenberg, Ella; Mottola, Giovanna; Uurasmaa, Tytti-Maria; Anttila, Katja; Engström-Öst, Jonna (2022)
    Climate-induced warming and increased river inflows are forcing the Baltic Sea to radical changes in the near future; organisms living in this brackish-water ecosystem are already experiencing osmotic stress, which, together with thermal stress, may have severe consequences on the ecosystem. The aim of this work was to study the combined effect of decreasing salinity and increasing temperature on reproductive success and oxidative stress in zooplankton by using a calanoid copepod Acartia sp. as a model organism. The field study was conducted during summer 2020 in the western Gulf of Finland, using three sampling sites with naturally differing salinity levels. Additionally, the copepods from these sites were experimentally exposed to ambient or 3 degrees C elevated temperature for 72 h. The copepods derived from the deepest and the most saline sampling site suffered less oxidative damage and exhibited relatively high reproduction, while the temperature treatment itself had little effect. On the other hand, the field-based monitoring data showed otherwise; temperature increased lipid peroxidation, glutathione-s-transferase activity, or both in all three sampling sites. Meanwhile, egg production rate was negatively associated with temperature in the area with the lowest salinity. Moreover, egg production rate decreased from June to September along with increasing temperatures in the mid-salinity sampling site, while similar change occurred also in the highest-salinity site between August and September. The combined effect of salinity and sampling date on reproduction indicates the importance of even subtle salinity changes on copepods. Moreover, the data suggest that the unusually strong heatwave was responsible for increased oxidative stress during the sampling season and possibly forced a trade-off between antioxidant activity and reproductive effort.
  • Hurmekoski, Elias; Sjolie, Hanne K. (2018)
    Scenario analyses are widely used in forest sector foresight studies, being typically based on either qualitative or quantitative approaches. As scenario analyses are used for informing decision-makers, it is of interest to contrast the similarities and differences between the scenario processes and outcomes using quantitative and qualitative approaches and to explore the underlying causes of differences. This paper uses the output from a qualitative scenario study to design forest sector model (FSM) scenarios and compares the results from the two approaches. We analyse two cases on wood products markets in Norway: i) Wood products suppliers establish a developer firm specializing on wood construction to boost demand, and ii) Levying a carbon tax while reducing CO2 emissions in cement production. Comparing the qualitative studies (innovation diffusion analysis, backcasting and Delphi) and FSM analyses (NorFor model), the results resemble for case ii) but deviate strongly for case i). Notably, the strategy aiming to boost the demand for domestic wood products leads in NorFor mainly to an increase in imports with limited impact on Norwegian sawnwood production. Causes of the discrepancies are discussed. Despite the challenges of combining the two frameworks, we believe that the method where assumptions based on stakeholder input or other qualitative research approaches are elaborated in a FSM and compared, should be more explored. Importantly, applying various methods and frameworks allows for complementing and diversifying the picture, and thus improving the knowledge base. (C) 2017 Department of Forest Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umea. Published by Elsevier GmbH.