Browsing by Subject "FINADAPT"

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  • Kellomäki, Seppo; Strandman, Harri; Nuutinen, Tuula; Peltola, Heli; Korhonen, Kari T.; Väisänen, Hannu (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 334 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 334)
    In this study, an ecosystem model (Sima), capable of predicting ecosystem level functioning of boreal forests, was used together with a permanent sample plot data of the Finnish national forest inventory (measured in 1995) and different climate scenarios to analyze, how increase in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration may effect forest growth and dynamics in Finnish conditions. The simulations showed that the forest ecosystems are most impacted in the most northern and in the most southern parts of the country (2000-2099). In the north, the productivity of the forest ecosystems may increase substantially. In this respect, the northern forests may provide many opportunities for forestry and timber production. In southern Finland, the climate change may also increase in general the productivity of the forest ecosystems. However, it may also create environment suboptimal for Norway spruce, the growth of which may reduce throughout southern and central parts of the country. The dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birch may compete with Scots pine even in these sites, and the dominance of birch may increase. The management of Finnish forests should therefore be adapted to meet the higher productivity and changing tree species composition in the future. These expected changes in growth and trees species composition may have locally negative effect on the total growth in Southern Finland, but at the nation-wide the total growth may increase up to 44 %, with an increase up to 82 % in the sustainable potential total cutting drain over the country.
  • Saarelainen, Seppo (Finnish Environment Institute, 2006)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 338 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 338)
    The vulnerability of Finnish transport networks to climate change impacts depends on the climatic conditions anticipated in the future and the robustness of the transport systems affected. Most foreseeable impacts are taken into account in the current practice of design and construction, but design criteria may have to be changed in the future if extreme weather events intensify. Experiences during recent years, such as the floods in 2004 and 2005, have demonstrated that the Finnish society is not properly prepared for the impacts of extreme events. Adaptation can be seen as a risk and safety assessment considering: contingency planning, structural improvement, improvement to design criteria for new constructions, and enhancing building regulations, guidelines and recommendations. Research needed to improve the capacity to adapt to climate change includes: (i) documentation and technical and economic analysis of damage processes obtained from actual damage cases, (ii) compilation of statistics of available climatic data on critical parameters and the estimation of future changes in extreme values and their probability of occurrence, (iii) analysis of statistics on regional flood levels and occurrence, especially along unregulated watercourses, (iv) development of preventive measures against damage for acute hazards, (v) development of more efficient solutions for the design and construction of transport structures, (vi) development of sustainable road maintenance techniques considering climate change, (vii) development of efficient methods for evaluating and monitoring terrain conditions over large areas, and (viii) development of early warning systems for critical weather events.
  • Carter, Timothy R.; Kankaanpää, Susanna (Finnish Environment Institute, 2004)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 318 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 318)
    This report is an account of a one-day seminar organised at the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) as part of the preparatory phase of the FINADAPT consortium. It was attended by 80 participants from government, research institutions, business and the private sector. The seminar had four main goals: 1) to draw attention to the role of climate change adaptation in complementing emissions reduction (mitigation) as a response to changing climate in Finland, 2) to invite participants representing different sectors and constituencies to present their opinions on the key research challenges posed in adapting to future climate change in Finland, 3) to provide input for the final planning of research projects proposed in the FINADAPT consortium, and 4) to discuss the possible establishment of a national research programme on climate change adaptation. The report summarises the information presented at the seminar and also records some of the discussion. Section 2 covers the three short introductory presentations, and sections 3 and 4 then describe two moderated panel sessions that had a sectoral focus - four panelists speaking on aspects of the natural environment and four on themes related to infrastructure and human wellbeing. The experiences of three guest speakers of national climate change research programmes in Norway and the United Kingdom are related in section 5 and section 6 reports the final panel session on themes that cut across the field of climate change adaptation. The concluding session is a summary of some of the main issues and recommendations raised in discussion. The seminar programme and list of participants can be found in the appendices.
  • Perrels, Adriaan; Rajala, Rami; Honkatukia, Juha (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 342 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 342)
    This report discusses the findings of a quick scan type of study of the social-economic effects of climate change for Finland during the 21st century. From a Finnish domestic economic viewpoint the impacts of climate change on Finland are probably rather modest and in aggregate could even be slightly positive on average for the 21st century, provided that climate change does not cause extreme events such as disruption of the Gulf Stream. The order of magnitude of the aggregate effects, however incomplete these are at this stage, amount to less than 0.1% change in GDP. The increase in annual variations of climate change effects and consequent risks putting the resilience of the economy and key infrastructure to test seem to be of more concern than the above mentioned average impacts. The extent to which benefits can be actually exploited and costs attenuated depends in many cases also on public and private policies outside the realm of climate policy. Examples are policies for agriculture, forestry, and urban and national spatial planning. The report proposes several social-economic research themes to be taken up in order to be better prepared for more thorough support of future strategies dealing with climate change.
  • Pöyry, Juha; Toivonen, Heikki (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 333 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 333)
    This report examines possible climate change adaptation measures concerning biodiversity and nature conservation in Finland. The study is based on a literature survey and an expert questionnaire. It also draws on feedback from an international expert seminar arranged on 9 May, 2005. Recent climate change has already produced numerous impacts on biodiversity. The examples observed in Finland include advanced spring arrival and breeding of birds, immigration of new species, expanding northern range limits of butterflies and moths and increasing multivoltinism of moths. Increasing impacts on biota, including disintegration of the current communities and reconstruction of new assemblages of species, can be expected in the future. Marked changes are projected in forest composition and in wetland species diversity. Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (FNSACC) proposed several measures that could help the adaptation of natural biota to climate change, such as monitoring and development of a protected areas (PAs) network, restoration of habitats, conservation and management of habitats important for biodiversity and eradication of alien invasive species. Goals and methods of PA management may need to be revised in the future. Most measures suggested in FNSACC are beneficial for biodiversity, but our understanding on their effectiveness is still insufficient. Knowledge gaps concerning impact and adaptation research include regional modelling of relationships between climate change and biodiversity, assessment of PAs for the likely effect of climate change, and identification of species and habitats at risk of being significantly affected by climate change.
  • Silander, Jari; Vehviläinen, Bertel; Niemi, Jorma; Arosilta, Anna; Dubrovin, Tanja; Jormola, Jukka; Keskisarja, Ville; Keto, Antton; Lepistö, Ahti; Ollila, Markku; Pajula, Heikki; Pitkänen, Heikki; Sammalkorpi, Ilkka; Suomalainen Merja; Veijalainen, Noora (Finnish Environment Institute, 2006)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 336 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 336)
    The most important effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in Finland is the change in seasonal distribution of runoff. Winter runoff is expected to increase considerably due to an increase in snowmelt and rainfall, while spring floods are estimated to decrease in southern Finland. In northern Finland spring floods are expected to increase during the next few decades due to increased snowfall, but then to decline over the longer term with continuous warming. Yearly runoff is estimated to change from -5 % to 10 %. Decreases are predicted for catchments with a large lake surface which enhance lake evaporation; increases are through winter runoff. In winter excess water from snowmelt and rainfall can cause winter floods, especially large central lakes Saimaa, Päijänne and Näsijärvi will be more frequently flooded. Extreme runoff events are projected to be more frequent due to increased maximum precipitation. Impacts and adaptation to these effects in hydrological cycle are described in this publication.
  • Saarelainen, Seppo (Finnish Environment Institute, 2006)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 339 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 339)
    The vulnerability of the built environment to climate change impacts is likely to be manifest in a higher occurrence of extreme weather events, which increases the risk of damage and costs. Most weather-related impacts should be taken into account in normal design and construction practices. Damage is caused if a weather-based impact exceeds the design level, and this can increase dramatically with a rising impact level. Events in recent years have shown that Finnish society is not properly prepared for the effects of extreme weather. In order to prepare for such events, the investigation and documentation of previous damage occurrences is important. Investigations should cover, besides damage costs, the prevailing weather conditions and resulting damage, including the damage process, mapping of damaged objects and evaluation of the technical causes for building failure. On the basis of these investigations, protection measures can be implemented and longer-term measures introduced for adapting communities to withstand climate change impacts. The research needed to improve the capability for adaptation includes basic knowledge (e.g. determination of past and future climate information, development of efficient methods for the inventory and monitoring of terrain conditions and vulnerability over large areas, and development of early warning systems for critical weather events), damage investigations (e.g. documentation and physico-economical analysis of damage processes, development of preventive measures for acute hazards, and development of repair and rehabilitation methods for damaged buildings and structures), building technology (e.g. development of sustainable solutions for design and construction of buildings and infrastructure, and improvement of building regulations concerning climate-induced hazards) and community planning (e.g. development of methods).
  • Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Jylhä, Kirsti; Tuomenvirta, Heikki (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 345 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 345)
    Climate change scenarios for Finland were constructed for three tridecadal periods, 1991-2020, 2021-2050 and 2070-2099, separately for the SRES A2 and B1 forcing scenarios. Depending on the quantity, projections are based on output from 3-6 global climate models. Under the A2 scenario, by 2070-2099 mean temperatures are projected to increase almost 4°C in summer and more than 6°C in winter. In winter, minimum temperatures tend to increase more than the maximum temperatures, and diurnal temperature range is reduced by about 2°C. Precipitation increases more than 20% in winter. Summers appear to be slightly sunnier than at present, and soil moisture content is reduced up to by 30%. Hot summer days will be about four times more common than today. Frost-free period in summer will lengthen by more than 2 months. In wind velocities, no statistically significant changes were found. For the end of the century, the B1 scenario produces smaller responses than the A2 scenario. During the two earlier time spans, the two scenarios do not diverge markedly, and changes are statistically less significant than at the end of the century. There are several factors of uncertainty in the present projections. For example, current climate models describe the behaviour of the nature only incompletely, and the number of models included in this account was small. Moreover, the future temperature, precipitation etc. conditions are affected, in addition to anthropogenic forcing, by unforced natural variability occurring in the climate system.
  • Hassi, Juhani; Rytkönen, Mika (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 337 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 337)
    Heat-related mortality and morbidity will be increased slightly; respectively wintertime mortality and morbidity will decrease under a warming environmental temperature. Short-term extreme weather events will probably cause most of additional burden of climate induced adverse health outcomes in Finland. In increased risks are elderly and children, and those with poor health. A risk of some infectious diseases may increase. There is a consensus that population would adjust successfully, with little increase in heat related mortality, to climate warming predicted to occur in the next half century. However, the physiologic adaptation responses are not developed to short-term hazardous or extreme weather events. The adaptive capacity of Finnish society is fairly good as we are able to maintain the public health infrastructure and achieve sustainable political and economical development. Ageing population together with threats posed by climate has to be underlined. Urbanization may decrease the adaptive capacity as urban population is considered to cope less well with harsh climatic conditions as their counterparts in rural areas do. This means threats for especially teenagers and old people. Spontaneous adjustments to extreme heat might not compensate fully for effects of future heat waves in Finland. The future adaptive capacity is also a function of population health status and pre-existing disease burdens.
  • Carter, Timothy R.; Jylhä, Kirsti; Perrels, Adriaan; Fronzek, Stefan; Kankaanpää, Susanna (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 332 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 332)
    A set of three scenarios of environmental and socio-economic conditions in Finland during the 21st century is presented. The scenarios were developed to provide a contextual framework for research into adaptation to climate change in the FINADAPT project. They have similarities to the IPCC SRES global scenarios, but they also differ from SRES because they are national in scope and they account for climate policy. The scenarios are labelled: Global Markets, assuming low greenhouse gas levels, high economic growth with rapid technological development (related to SRES A1T); Sustainability, assuming low greenhouse gas levels, sustainability goals with slower economic growth than Global Markets and rapid technological development (related to SRES B1); and Retrenchment, assuming high global greenhouse gas emissions, a world in blocs with unbalanced wealth, rapid population growth and obstacles to technological proliferation and trade (related to SRES A2). The scenarios span four time frames (climatological averaging periods in brackets): present-day (1971-2000), near-term (1991-2020), mid-term (2021-2050), and long-term (2071-2100), and the requirements for adaptation are then treated as if they apply in 2005 (present-day), 2020, 2050 and 2100. Quantitative scenario information on socio-economic development, climate, CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition and land use change has been provided, with detailed data available from the FINADAPT web site or from relevant partner institutes.
  • Kirkinen, Johanna; Martikainen, Antti; Holttinen, Hannele; Savolainen, Ilkka; Auvinen, Osmo; Syri, Sanna (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 340 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 340)
    Climate change is expected to have notable impacts on the energy sector. Several general-level studies exist on the plausible impacts on energy resources and exploitation of the resources, on energy production, on demand of energy and on the reliability of energy supply. This report presents a literature review on these impacts and discusses the possible adaptation measures. Energy sources considered were hydropower, wind power, bioenergy, peat, solar power, fossil fuels and nuclear power. The most notable impacts of climate change on energy sector are due to changes in precipitation, temperature, wind speed and unusual weather conditions. The main focus of the work was Finland, but due to the limited amount of available studies, the work was extended to cover also other world regions. The main impacts of climate change on energy sector in Finland are: - Moderate increase of renewable energy resources (hydro, wind, biomass). Changes in seasonal distribution of hydro inflow are likely to impact operational practice of hydropower production. The electricity system can be adapted by taking into account the changes in the availability of various resources and adding new capacity, if needed. - Possible increase in extreme weather conditions may increase faults in electricity distribution network. To minimize network faults, design requirements and management practices for electricity distribution networks should be adapted to the new conditions. - Temperature increase will lower the heating demand and increase the cooling demand. Seasonal differences in electricity demand will slightly decrease. The adaptation of the energy sector to climate change needs additional investigations. Especially renewable energy sources, the robustness of facilities, the demand of cooling energy and adaptation to extreme weather events are topics which need more studies.
  • Sievänen, Tuija; Tervo, Kaarina; Neuvonen, Marjo; Pouta, Eija; Saarinen, Jarkko; Peltonen, Arvo (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 341 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 341)
    Adaptation of outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism concerns majority of Finns. Adaptation may take place both in demand and supply: people will adapt by changing their recreation and travel behaviour, and supply of recreational and tourism services will be adjusted to new conditions either reactively or anticipatory. In this study, the impacts of climate change on recreation sector and nature-tourism entrepreneurs? readiness to adapt and attitude towards climate change were under study. The results showed that snow-based recreation and tourism activities are the most vulnerable ones, especially in southern Finland, and that warming may benefit summer activities. However, the decrease n environmental quality and the increasing occurrence of extreme weather conditions such as storms may diminish this positive impact. Attitudes towards climate change and its impacts varied among tourism entrepreneurs. The general opinion was, however, that climate change does not so far represent a serious threat to the tourism industry. Tourism operators also feel that they are prepared to changes in climate conditions because of their readiness to react on normal weather variation already today. Lack of exact data and uncertainty concerning climate change and its effects in different areas make adaptation more difficult. In the recreation sector, participation in winter activities, especially in cross-country skiing and snowmobiling will decrease in a long run. Possibilities for summer activities become better, but socioeconomic factors such as age-structure may weaken the positive impact. Several research needs related to recreation and tourism were identified. The Finnish tourism industry seems to need more detailed and spatially informed scenarios concerning climate change and more information on its impacts on the different activities in the tourism sector. Also communication channels seem to need more attention. More information is needed to monitor changes in recreational behaviour and trends. Also, there is a need for contingent behaviour studies to project recreationists' and tourists' reactions to changing conditions.
  • Kankaanpää, Susanna; Carter, Timothy R.; Liski, Jari (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 344 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 344)
    This study solicited stakeholders' opinions on climate change adaptation and their needs for information on the issue through a questionnaire survey. Stakeholders were identified as: 1) those affected by climate change and 2) those positioned most effectively to advance adaptation. The questionnaire comprised 21 questions. They included questions on general perceptions about climate change, its potential impacts and their significance, current preparedness, coverage of climate change issues in current plans, the need to respond and the measures required. The questionnaire was Internet-based and anonymous, and was sent to 1133 persons working in 23 sectors. Respondents were asked to fill in the questionnaire from the point of view of their sector or work, and not as private citizens. Of the 532 persons who replied (47% response rate), natural resource and environmentally-related sectors each made up about a quarter, with 13 other sectors also represented. More than 90% of the respondents agreed with the statement that climate change is caused by human actions and 69% thought that the climate has already changed. A majority believed that most sectors in Finland are able to cope with climate variability and the impacts of climate change fairly or very well. Climate change issues have so far not been taken into account in just over half of the operational plans of organisations or sectors represented in the survey (52% of respondents). Nevertheless, 37% of the plans did cover climate change issues, and of these most dealt with both mitigation and adaptation (41%). A majority (53%) of the stakeholders considered that they had already received sufficient information on climate change issues to support their decision-making and planning at work. Of a given list of alternative information needs, the responses emphasize information on impacts on Finland (62%), on probabilities of occurrence of extreme events (57%), uncertainties of estimates (56%) and regional impacts (50%). Half of the respondents (50%) thought that measures taken so far in Finland to adapt to climate change have not been sufficient. The stakeholders suggested several types of measures that the authorities should take.
  • Carter, Timothy R. (Suomen ympäristökeskus, 2007)
    Suomen ympäristö 1/2007 (The Finnish Environment 1/2007)
    FINADAPT (Suomalaisen ympäristön ja yhteiskunnan kyky sopeutua ilmastonmuutokseen) konsortioon kuului 14 osahanketta. FINADAPT oli osa Ympäristöklusterin tutkimusohjelmaa, jota koordinoi ympäristöministeriö. FINADAPTin tavoitteena oli tuottaa tutkimusraportti Suomen haavoittuvuudesta ja sopeutumiskyvystä ilmastonmuutokseen. Tutkimus perustui kirjallisuusselvityksiin, avainryhmien osallistumiseen, seminaareihin sekä sektorikohtaiseen tutkimukseen. Konsortiota koordinoi Suomen ympäristökeskus ja siihen kuului 11 tutkimuslaitosta. FINADAPT käsitti seuraavat aihealueet: ilmastotieto ja skenaariot, luonnon monimuotoisuus, metsätalous, maatalous, vesivarat, terveys, liikenne, rakennettu ympäristö, energiainfrastruktuuri, matkailu ja luonnon virkistyskäyttö, sosio-ekonominen selvitys, yhdyskuntasuunnittelu ja kysely avainryhmille. FINADAPTin pääviestit ovat: 1. Suomen ilmasto muuttuu 2. Muutokset Suomen ilmastossa jatkuvat ja ne voivat tulevaisuudessa kiihtyä 3. Päästöjen vähentäminen voi hidastaa ilmastonmuutosta, mutta sopeutumista tarvitaan 4. FINADAPT on tutkinut suomalaisen ympäristön ja yhteiskunnan sopeutumiskykyä 5. Suomelle on kehitetty sosio-ekonomiset ja ympäristöskenaariot suurille ja pienille päästöille 6. Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutukset näkyvät jo 7. Viimeaikaiset äärevät sääilmiöt ovat yhdenmukaisia ilmastonmuutosarvioiden kanssa 8. Ilmastonmuutoksen arvioidaan sekä heikentävän että vahvistavan ekosysteemipalveluja 9. Ilmastonmuutos merkitsee sekä riskejä että mahdollisuuksia infrastruktuurille ja ihmisen hyvinvoinnille 10. Ilmastonmuutoksen vaikutuksien ja sopeutumistoimien kustannuksista on vain epävarmoja arvioita 11. Tunnetut ja käytössä olevat keinot sopeutua ilmaston vaihteluun voivat olla riittämättömiä 12. Lisääntyvän ilmastoriskin kustannustehokkaaksi hallitsemiseksi tarvitaan nopeita poliittisia päätöksiä 13. Tiettyjen toimintastrategioiden avulla voidaan samanaikaisesti hillitä ilmastonmuutosta ja sopeutua muutoksiin 14. Yleinen tietoisuus on sopeutumisen kannalta tärkeää 15. Lisätutkimusta tarvitaan, jotta Suomelle voitaisiin laatia sopivimmat sopeutumisstrategiat.
  • Peltonen, Lasse; Haanpää, Simo; Lehtonen, Samuli (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 343 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 343)
    Based on a literature review and a series of round-table discussions with actors engaged in urban planning, this paper addresses adaptation issues relevant in urban planning. Different adaptation challenges are discussed, together with aspects of vulnerability such as awareness, geographical context, institutional frames and organisational capacities. The round table discussions took place in three different locations in Finland, reflecting different geographical and socio-economical conditions. Throughout the report is argued that the perspective of vulnerability should receive more attention in climate change adaptation. The determinants of vulnerability include 1) awareness, 2) place-based, geographical and socio-economic characteristics and 3) institutional and organisational determinants. Climate change is still seen as a distant phenomenon in planning. Awareness should be enhanced by increasing planners? training in climate related topics and integrating climate change issues as one parameter in spatial planning. The effects of climate change vary in Finland, according to regional and local patterns of vulnerability. Some main concerns include sudden urban floods inland and land uplift and sea-level rise in coastal cities. Socio-economic development trends like urban sprawl, together with current trends in building offer alternative challenges to settlements. Regulations should provide a framework for planning safe environments taking changing climatic conditions into consideration. The report stresses the spatial dimensions of vulnerability and adaptation. Present instruments of planning and regulation are largely sufficient for dealing with a changing climate. However, plans at different levels should identify areas affected by climate related hazards and risks. This requires developing regional climate change assessments. Updating guidance and clarification of responsibilities is needed and risk-based planning instruments should be developed. Extreme events should be a focus studied and documented to develop best practices in climate change adaptation.
  • Hildén, Mikael; Lehtonen, Heikki; Bärlund, Ilona; Hakala, Kaija; Kaukoranta, Timo; Tattari, Sirkka (Finnish Environment Institute, 2005)
    Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 335 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 335)
    The starting point for the analysis has been that economic factors and agricultural policies significantly affect agriculture. When climate change and economic driving forces have synergies, rapid adaptation may occur. The present climate change scenarios do not appear to threaten agriculture in Finland. Under the most favourable circumstances, climate change might even increase yields in Finland. However, the net advantage remains small, unless there are major changes in demand and prices of agricultural products. Therefore changes in e.g. the Asian consumption patterns and global food markets as well as demands for energy crops in export-oriented production areas are likely to be very significant. In some cases a spontaneous adaptation is likely to be too slow for avoiding adverse effects of climate change. Such areas are water management and drainage of fields, agricultural infrastructure, agricultural technology, long term plant breeding, management of externalities such as measures against leaching of nutrients, development of proper monitoring and measuring systems, and agricultural policy. The challenge for agricultural policies is to adapt not only to climate change as such, but in particular to various forms of spontaneous adaptation that will occur within the agricultural sector. Adaptation also creates needs for new research. Research can support adaptation by demonstrating how agricultural and other policies create incentives or disincentives for innovative adaptation. The environmental impacts of alternative adaptive processes within the agricultural sector are also important to explore. Feedback loops are of particular importance because they may accelerate or slow down adaptive processes. For example rigid systems of subsidies that are fixed to particular cultivars or agricultural practices will tend to slow down adaptation whereas systems that support innovativeness may speed up adaptation.