Browsing by Subject "GULF"

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  • Brutemark, Andreas; Vandelannoote, Angelique; Engström-Öst, Jonna; Suikkanen, Sanna (2015)
    Salinity is one of the main factors that explain the distribution of species in the Baltic Sea. Increased precipitation and consequent increase in freshwater inflow is predicted to decrease salinity in some areas of the Baltic Sea. Clearly such changes may have profound effects on the organisms living there. Here we investigate the response of the commonly occurring cyanobacterium Dolichospermum spp. to three salinities, 0, 3 and 6. For the three strains tested we recorded growth, intracellular toxicity (microcystin) and allelopathic properties. We show that Dolichospermum can grow in all the three salinities tested with highest growth rates in the lowest salinity. All strains showed allelopathic potential and it differed significantly between strains and salinities, but was highest in the intermediate salinity and lowest in freshwater. Intracellular toxin concentration was highest in salinity 6. In addition, based on monitoring data from the northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland, we show that salinity has decreased, while Dolichospermum spp. biomass has increased between 1979 and 2013. Thus, based on our experimental findings it is evident that salinity plays a large role in Dolichospermum growth, allelopathic properties and toxicity. In combination with our long-term data analyses, we conclude that decreasing salinity is likely to result in a more favourable environment for Dolichospermum spp. in some areas of the Baltic Sea.
  • Vanhatalo, Jarno; Hartmann, Marcelo; Veneranta, Lari (2020)
    Species distribution models (SDM) are a key tool in ecology, conservation and management of natural resources. Two key components of the state-of-the-art SDMs are the description for species distribution response along environmental covariates and the spatial random effect that captures deviations from the distribution patterns explained by environmental covariates. Joint species distribution models (JSDMs) additionally include interspecific correlations which have been shown to improve their descriptive and predictive performance compared to single species models. However, current JSDMs are restricted to hierarchical generalized linear modeling framework. Their limitation is that parametric models have trouble in explaining changes in abundance due, for example, highly non-linear physical tolerance limits which is particularly important when predicting species distribution in new areas or under scenarios of environmental change. On the other hand, semi-parametric response functions have been shown to improve the predictive performance of SDMs in these tasks in single species models. Here, we propose JSDMs where the responses to environmental covariates are modeled with additive multivariate Gaussian processes coded as linear models of coregionalization. These allow inference for wide range of functional forms and interspecific correlations between the responses. We propose also an efficient approach for inference with Laplace approximation and parameterization of the interspecific covariance matrices on the euclidean space. We demonstrate the benefits of our model with two small scale examples and one real world case study. We use cross-validation to compare the proposed model to analogous semi-parametric single species models and parametric single and joint species models in interpolation and extrapolation tasks. The proposed model outperforms the alternative models in all cases. We also show that the proposed model can be seen as an extension of the current state-of-the-art JSDMs to semi-parametric models.
  • Pihlajamäki, Mia-Elina; Helle, Inari; Haapasaari, Päivi; Sarkki, Simo; Kuikka, Sakari; Lehikoinen, Annukka (2020)
    Fisheries management aims to ensure that the fishing activities are environmentally sustainable in the long term, while also achieving the economic, social and food security related management objectives. To facilitate this, both the ecological and human dimensions of sustainability need to be included in fisheries assessment. In addition, assessing long-term sustainability calls for taking into account plausible changes in the surrounding societal conditions that shape the characteristics of the fisheries governance system, as well as the ecological conditions. The paper uses a combination of qualitative exploratory scenario storylines (ESS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to integrate the environmental, economic, social and food security dimensions in an interdisciplinary assessment of the future sustainability of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries. First, four alternative ESS were created based on plausible changes in societal drivers. The ESS were then formulated into a BBN to (a) visualize the assumed causalities, and (b) examine quantitatively how changes in the societal drivers affect the social-ecological fisheries system and ultimately the fisheries management objectives. This type of probabilistic scenario synthesis can help in thinking qualitative scenarios in a quantitative way. Moreover, it can increase understanding on the causal links between societal driving forces and the complex fisheries system and on how the management objectives can be achieved, thereby providing valuable information for strategic decision-making under uncertainty.
  • Maximov, Alexey; Bonsdorff, Erik; Eremina, Tatjana; Kauppi, Laura; Norkko, Alf; Norkko, Joanna (2015)
    Marenzelleria spp. are among the most successful non-native benthic species in the Baltic Sea. These burrowing polychaetes dig deeper than most native Baltic species, performing previously lacking ecosystem functions. We examine evidence from experiments, field sampling and modelling that the introduction of Marenzelleria spp. affects nutrient cycling and biogeochemical processes at the sediment water interface. Over longer time scales, bioirrigation by Marenzelleria spp. has the potential to increase phosphorus retention in bottom deposits because of deeper oxygen penetration into sediments and formation of a deeper oxidized layer. In contrast, nitrogen fluxes from the sediment increase. As a consequence of a decline of the phosphate concentration and/or rising nitrogen/phosphorus ratio, some Northern Baltic ecosystems may experience improvement of the environment because of mitigation of eutrophication and harmful cyanobacteria blooms. Although it is difficult to unambiguously estimate the ecosystem-level consequences of invasion, in many cases it could be considered as positive due to increased structural and functional diversity. The long-term interactions with the native fauna still remain unknown, however, and in this paper we highlight the major knowledge gaps. (C) 2015 Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences., Production and hosting by Elsevier Sp. z o.o.
  • Kari, Elina; Merkouriadi, Ioanna; Walve, Jakob; Leppäranta, Matti; Kratzer, Susanne (2018)
    Seasonal sea ice cover reduces wind-driven mixing and allows for under-ice stratification to develop. These under-ice plumes are a common phenomenon in the seasonal sea ice zone. They stabilize stratification and concentrate terrestrial runoff in the top layer, transporting it further offshore than during ice-free seasons. In this study, the effect of sea ice on spring stratification is investigated in Himmerfjärden bay in the NW Baltic Sea. Distinct under-ice plumes were detected during long ice seasons. The preconditions for the development of the under-ice plumes are described as well as the typical spatial and temporal dimensions of the resulting stratification patterns. Furthermore, the effect of the under-ice plume on the timing of the onset and the maximum of the phytoplankton spring bloom were investigated, in terms of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations. At the head of the bay, bloom onset was delayed on average by 18 days in the event of an under-ice plume. However, neither the maximum concentration of Chl-a nor the timing of the Chl-a maximum were affected, implying that the growth period was shorter with a higher daily productivity. During this period from spring bloom onset to maximum Chl-a, the diatom biomass was higher and Mesodinium rubrum biomass was lower in years with under-ice plumes compared to years without under-ice plumes. Our results thus suggest that the projected shorter ice seasons in the future will reduce the probability of under-ice plume development, creating more dynamic spring bloom conditions. These dynamic conditions and the earlier onset of the spring bloom seem to favor the M. rubrum rather than diatoms.
  • Rincon, Margarita M.; Catalan, Ignacio A.; Mantyniemi, Samu; Macias, Diego; Ruiz, Javier (2018)
    Many studies underscore the importance of incorporating the effect of environmental data within a life-history-stage-specific framework for determining the recruitment and survival of small pelagic fish. The recruitment of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Gulf of Cadiz (NE Atlantic) is sensitive to the effect of intense easterlies, stratification of the water column, and discharges from the Guadalquivir River on early life stages. As a proof of concept, we have developed the basis for a new Bayesian model with a dual time step resolution: monthly for juveniles and adults, and weekly for earlier life stages. This dual time step resolution resolves environmental effects on prerecruits while simulating the effect of fishing on recruits. Our estimates for juvenile abundances are validated with field data. The Bayesian framework accounts for the uncertainty, thus providing consistent length-frequency estimates and a plausible environmentally driven stock-recruitment relationship.
  • Roiha, Petra; Siiriä, Simo-Matti; Haavisto, Noora; Alenius, Pekka; Westerlund, Antti; Purokoski, Tero (2018)
    Argo floats have been used in the environmental monitoring of the very shallow Bothnian Sea, a sub-basin of the Baltic Sea, for 5 years as part of the Finnish Euro-Argo programme. The Bothnian Sea is so far considered to be an environmentally healthy part of the Baltic Sea because the deep waters of the basin are well-ventilated by inflowing oxygen-rich saltier and heavier surface layer waters of the Baltic Sea proper. Thus the deep water flow is of interest in the Bothnian Sea. In this study, we used Argo float data from six different long-term missions, from 111 to 512 days, to analyze the deep-water flow in the Bothnian Sea where no continuous monitoring of currents exist. We estimated mainly the flow below the expected halocline from the paths of the floats. We analyzed the movements statistically and estimated the error caused by the surface drift of the floats during their stay at the surface by using 3D hydrodynamic model results as reference data. Our results show a northward flowing resultant current in the deep trench of the Bothnian Sea. There seemed to be very little exchange between coastal zone and open-sea waters in deeper layers. The drifting speed of the floats in the deep layers of Bothnian Sea generally was around 2 cm/s but instantaneous speeds of up to 30 cm/s in the middle-layer (50 dbars) were observed. In the Bothnian Sea deep, the deep trench on the Finnish side of the Bothnian Sea, the vast majority of the observations showed deep currents from south to north, with the same average speed of around 2 cm/s but the instantaneous maximum was smaller at 13 cm/s. Our study indicates that the routine Argo float observations can be used to get information on the deep currents in the basin in addition to hydrographic observations.
  • Jansson, Anna; Klais-Peets, Riina; Griniene, Evelina; Rubene, Gunta; Semenova, Anna; Lewandowska, Aleksandra; Engstrom-Öst, Jonna (2020)
    Functional traits are becoming more common in the analysis of marine zooplankton community dynamics associated with environmental change. We used zooplankton groups with common functional properties to assess long-term trends in the zooplankton caused by certain environmental conditions in a highly eutrophicated gulf. Time series of zooplankton traits have been collected since the 1960s in the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea, and were analyzed using a combination of multivariate methods (principal coordinate analysis) and generalized additive models. One of the most significant changes was the considerable increase in the amount of the zooplankton functional groups (FGR) in coastal springtime communities, and dominance shifts from more complex to simpler organism groups-cladocerans and rotifers. The results also show that functional trait organism complexity (body size) decreased considerably due to cladoceran and rotifer increase following elevated water temperature. Salinity and oxygen had negligible effects on the zooplankton community.
  • Gustafsson, Erik; Gustafsson, Bo G. (2020)
    Future acidification of coastal seas will depend not only on the development of atmospheric CO2 partial pressure (pCO(2)), but also on changes in the catchment areas, exchange with the adjacent ocean, and internal cycling of carbon and nutrients. Here we use a coupled physical-biogeochemical Baltic Sea model to quantify the sensitivity of pH to changes both in external forcing and internal processes. The experiments include changes in runoff, supply of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (A(T)), nutrient loads, exchange between the Baltic and North Seas, and atmospheric pCO(2). We furthermore address the potential different future developments of runoff and river loads in boreal and continental catchments, respectively. Changes in atmospheric pCO(2) exert the strongest control on future pH according to our calculations. This CO2-induced acidification could be further enhanced in the case of desalination of the Baltic Sea, although increased concentrations of A(T) in the river runoff due to increased weathering to some extent could counteract acidification. Reduced nutrient loads and productivity would reduce the average annual surface water pH but at the same time slightly increase wintertime surface water pH (the annual pH minimum). The response time of surface water pH to sudden changes in atmospheric pCO(2) is approximately one month, whereas response times to changes in e.g. runoff and A(T)/DIC loads are more related to residence times of water and salt (> 30 years). It seems unlikely that the projected future increase in atmospheric pCO(2) and associated pH reduction could be fully counteracted by any of the other processes addressed in our experiments.
  • Parviainen, Tuuli; Goerlandt, Floris; Helle, Inari; Haapasaari, Päivi; Kuikka, Sakari (2021)
    The risk of a large-scale oil spill remains significant in marine environments as international maritime transport continues to grow. The environmental as well as the socio-economic impacts of a large-scale oil spill could be substantial. Oil spill models and modeling tools for Pollution Preparedness and Response (PPR) can support effective risk management. However, there is a lack of integrated approaches that consider oil spill risks comprehensively, learn from all information sources, and treat the system uncertainties in an explicit manner. Recently, the use of the international ISO 31000:2018 risk management framework has been suggested as a suitable basis for supporting oil spill PPR risk management. Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical models that express uncertainty in a probabilistic form and can thus support decision-making processes when risks are complex and data are scarce. While BNs have increasingly been used for oil spill risk assessment (OSRA) for PPR, no link between the BNs literature and the ISO 31000:2018 framework has previously been made. This study explores how Bayesian risk models can be aligned with the ISO 31000:2018 framework by offering a flexible approach to integrate various sources of probabilistic knowledge. In order to gain insight in the current utilization of BNs for oil spill risk assessment and management (OSRA-BNs) for maritime oil spill preparedness and response, a literature review was performed. The review focused on articles presenting BN models that analyze the occurrence of oil spills, consequence mitigation in terms of offshore and shoreline oil spill response, and impacts of spills on the variables of interest. Based on the results, the study discusses the benefits of applying BNs to the ISO 31000:2018 framework as well as the challenges and further research needs.
  • Laurila-Pant, Mirka; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Venesjärvi, Riikka; Lehikoinen, Annukka (2019)
    Participatory modelling increases the transparency of environmental planning and management processes and enhances the mutual understanding among different parties. We present a sequential probabilistic approach to involve stakeholders' views in the formal decision support process. A continuous Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model is used to estimate population parameters for stakeholder groups, based on samples of individual value judgements. The approach allows quantification and visualization of the variability in views among and within stakeholder groups. Discrete BBN is populated with these parameters, to summarize and visualize the information and to link it to a larger decision analytic influence diagram (ID). As part of ID, the resulting discrete BBN element serves as a distribution-form decision criteria in probabilistic evaluation of alternative management strategies, to help find a solution that represents the optimal compromise in the presence of potentially conflicting objectives. We demonstrate our idea using example data from the field of marine spatial planning. However, this approach is applicable to many types of management cases. We suggest that by advancing the mutual understanding and concrete participation this approach can further facilitate the stakeholder involvement also during the various stages of the environmental management process. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
  • Kotta, Jonne; Kotta, Ilmar; Bick, Andreas; Bastrop, Ralf; Väinölä, Risto (2015)
    An as-yet-undescribed, non-indigenous polychaete species was found at very high densities in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea in Estonia in 2012. The species belongs to the sabellid genus Laonome Malmgren, 1866, but it could not be assigned to any of the previously described species. To date, the species has established a stable population after surviving a notably cold winter (2012/2013). To study the local distribution and abundance of the species, a spatial grid with some stations repeated seasonally and interannually was sampled in a quantitative manner. Based of the survey data and available environmental data, the variables that contributed significantly to explaining variation in the abundance of the polychaete were determined using the Boosted Regression Trees modelling approach. Molecular barcodes to characterize the identity of the species were also established. The abundance of Laonome sp. exhibited strong seasonal variation, peaking between July and November. Besides seasonality, the quantity of decomposed microalgae in the sediment and wave exposure best explained the variation in abundance. Laonome sp. is now well-established in the Baltic Sea and locally reached high densities in low salinity areas. This non-indigenous polychaete may potentially modify sediment morphology and chemistry and disrupt the natural infaunal communities. Laonome sp. could displace or even completely eliminate some species currently present in the study area and beyond if it spreads; however, it could also facilitate currently-present species through the provision of alternative substrate and/or food. Given its persistence and high abundance in Parnu Bay, colonization of other low-salinity areas of the Baltic Sea can be expected.
  • Glippa, Olivier; Engström-Öst, Jonna; Kanerva, Mirella; Rein, Anni; Vuori, Kristiina (2018)
    On a daily basis, planktonic organisms migrate vertically and thus experience widely varying conditions in their physico-chemical environment. In the Gulf of Finland, these changes are larger than values predicted by climate change scenarios predicted for the next century (up to 0.5 units in pH and 5 degrees C in temperature). In this work, we are interested in how temporal variations in physico-chemical characteristics of the water column on a daily and weekly scale influence oxidative stress level and antioxidant responses in the planktonic copepod of the genus Acartia. Responses were determined from samples collected during a two-week field survey in the western Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea. Our results showed that GST (Glutathione-S-transferase) enzyme activity increased in the surface waters between Weeks I and II, indicating antioxidant defense mechanism activation. This is most likely due to elevating temperature, pH, and dissolved oxygen observed between these two weeks. During Week II also GSSG (oxidized glutathione) was detected, indicating that copepods responded to stressor(s) in the environment. Our results suggest that Acartia copepods seem fairly tolerant to weekly fluctuations in environmental conditions in coastal and estuarine areas, in terms of antioxidant defense and oxidative stress. This could be directly connected to a very efficient glutathione cycling system acting as antioxidant defense system for neutralizing ROS and avoiding elevated levels of LPX.
  • Spilling, Kristian; Fuentes-Lema, Antonio; Quemalinos, Daniel; Klais, Riina; Sobrino, Cristina (2019)
    We determined the gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP) for the total community and the <10 mu m size fraction, the net release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and the microbial respiration in the Baltic Sea during the spring bloom. Samples (n = 126) were taken from the surface (3 m depth) covering most subbasins and different phases of the bloom, defined by the inorganic nutrient and Chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentrations. During the course of the bloom, the NPP rate (i.e., growth rate) decreased from 0.34 d(-1) +/- 0.03 (SE) to 0.15 d(-1) +/- 0.02 (SE), the contribution of the <10 mu m fraction increased from 14% +/- 2.5 (SE) to 47% +/- 4.0 (SE) and the percent extracellular release (PER) increased from 3.8% +/- 0.7 (SE) to 8.9% +/- 1.5 (SE). The assimilation number, was on average 0.13 mol C (g Chl a)(-1) h(-1) +/- 0.01 (SE), and the average GPP:NPP rate was 1.25. The respiration increased with growth rate and was 21% of the GPP rate. The net release of DOC was relatively constant over the bloom phases, with increasing PER compensating for the reduction in biomass, and estimated to 24-36 mu mol DOC L-1 during the whole spring bloom period in all subbasins except in the Bay of Bothnia where it was 75% lower. The assimilation number was surprisingly stable, suggesting it is uncoupled from the inorganic nutrient concentration, likely a reflection of physiological acclimation and changing phytoplankton community.
  • Daneliya, Mikhail; Price, W. Wayne; Heard, Richard W. (Muséum national d'histoire naturelle, 2018)
    European Journal of Taxonomy
    The Siriella brevicaudata species group from the West Indo-Pacific, defined and designated by Murano & Fukuoka (2008), previously contained five nominal species. In this study we describe five new species in the brevicaudata group: S. bassi sp. nov. from the Bass Strait, southern Australia, S. occulta sp. nov. from the Arabian Gulf, S. muranoi sp. nov. from the coast of Northern Territory, Australia, S. tabaniocula sp. nov. from Ningaloo Reef of Western Australia and Lodestone Reef off Queensland, and S. talbotae sp. nov. from Lizard Island, Queensland, Australia. Furthermore, Siriella hanseni W.M. Tattersall, 1922 from India and S. vincenti W.M. Tattersall, 1927 from South Australia are redescribed based on re-examination of their type material. A re-examination of specimens subsequently attributed to these two species from other geographical regions showed that these were misidentifications, partly representing three of the new species described herein. Siriella gibbosa (Ledoyer, 1970), which was previously synonymized with S. brevicaudata Paulson, 1875 by Bacescu, is revalidated and included within the brevicaudata group. Siriella lacertilis Talbot, 2009, from Lizard Island, is placed within the brevicaudata group. Diagnostic features for all the members of the group and the group itself are updated. As a result of the present study, the brevicaudata group now comprises 12 valid species.
  • Helle, Inari; Jolma, Ari; Venesjärvi, Riikka (2016)
    Large-scale oil spills can have adverse effects on biodiversity in coastal areas where maritime oil transportation is intense. In this article we conducted a spatial risk assessment to study the risk that potential tanker accidents pose to threatened habitat types and species living in the northern Baltic Sea, which has witnessed a rapid increase in maritime oil transportation within the past two decades. We applied a probabilistic method, which combines three components: a Bayesian network describing tanker accidents and uncertainties related to them, probabilistic maps showing the movement of oil, and a database of threatened species and habitats in the area. The results suggest that spatial risk posed by oil spills varies across the area, and does not correspond, for example, to the frequency of accidents in a given area. The relative risk is highest for seashore meadows, which is important to take into account when managing these habitats. Our analysis underlines the importance of a thorough risk assessment, which is not only based solely on one or two specific factors such as accident probabilities or the trajectories of spilled oil but also contains as broad a view of the consequences as possible. We believe that the probabilistic methodology applied in the study will be of high interest to people who have to cope with uncertainties typical for environmental risk assessment and management.
  • Ahola, Marja; Heyd, Volker (2020)
    The Corded Ware complex represents an archaeologically defined culture whose people inhabited large areas of Europe during the third millennium BC. Although Corded Ware graves are known also from Finnish territory – the northernmost area of Corded Ware expansion – these graves represent a special challenge and methodological problem for archaeological research. This is because unburnt bone material is generally not preserved in the acidic soils of Finland, and Finnish Corded Ware complex graves have typically been recognized mainly due to the occurrence of a Corded Ware assemblage (i. e. complete pottery vessels, adzes and ground-stone axes). Furthermore, since most Finnish Corded Ware grave discoveries have been made during the early and mid-20th century, they generally lack good-quality archaeological documentation. Despite these challenges, new insights into Finnish Corded Ware burials can be gained by thoroughly investigating the region’s burial customs and material culture as an entity and comparing them to the Corded Ware complex of the eastern Baltic region and beyond. Finnish Corded Ware graves not only follow the standard material culture and burial customs of the Central European Corded Ware complex but show additional evidence of wooden chambers and laid-out furs, and they may have occasionally even possessed small mounds. However, even though the material culture of the Finnish graves follows traditions present in the central European Corded Ware complex, the grave custom is far from uniform. Hence, Finnish Corded Ware graves represent a melting pot of ideas, ideologies and connections, likely reflecting differing origins of relocating people. Aside from being influenced by the Corded Ware populations of nearby regions, a close link to contemporary local hunter-gatherers seems to have been present, too.
  • Vigouroux, Guillaume; Kari, Elina; Beltrán-Abaunza, José M.; Uotila, Petteri; Yuan, Dekui; Destouni, Georgia (2021)
    Coastal eutrophication is a major environmental issue worldwide. In the Baltic Sea, eutrophication affects both the coastal waters and the open sea. Various policy frameworks aim to hinder its progress but eutrophicationrelevant water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a concentrations, still exhibit opposite temporal trends in various Baltic Sea marine and coastal waters. In this study, we investigate the temporal-trend linkages of measured water quality variables and their various anthropogenic, climatic and hydrospheric drivers over the period 1990-2020 with focus on the Swedish coastal waters and related marine basins in the Baltic Sea. We find that it is necessary to distinguish more and less isolated coastal waters, based on their water exchanges with the open sea, to capture different coastal eutrophication dynamics. In less isolated coastal waters, eutrophication is primarily related to nitrogen concentrations, while it is more related to phosphorus concentrations in more isolated coastal waters. In the open sea, trends in eutrophication conditions correlate best with trends in climatic and hydrospheric drivers, like wind speed and water salinity, respectively. In the coastal waters, driver signals are more mixed, with considerable influences from anthropogenic land-based nutrient loads and sea ice cover duration. Summer chlorophyll-a concentration in the open sea stands out as a main change driver of summer chlorophyll-a concentration in less isolated coastal waters. Overall, coastal waters are a melting pot of driver influences over various scales, from local land-based drivers to large-scale total catchment and open sea conditions. The latter in turn depend on long-term integration of pathway-dependent influences from the various coastal parts of the Baltic Sea and their land-based nutrient load drivers, combined with overarching climate conditions and internal feedback loops. As such, our results challenge any unidirectional local source-to-sea paradigm and emphasize a need for concerted local land-catchment and whole-sea measures for robust coastal eutrophication management. (c) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).