Browsing by Subject "LAND"

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  • Romero-Munoz, Alfredo; Fernandez-Llamazares, Alvaro; Moraes, Monica R.; Larrea-Alcazar, Daniel M.; Wordley, Claire F. R. (2019)
  • Järviö, Natasha; Maljanen, Netta-Leena; Kobayashi, Yumi; Ryynänen, Toni; Tuomisto, Hanna (2021)
    Novel food production technologies are being developed to address the challenges of securing sustainable and healthy nutrition for the growing global population. This study assessed the environmental impacts of microbial protein (MP) produced by autotrophic hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria (HOB). Data was collected from a company currently producing MP using HOB (hereafter simply referred to as MP) on a small-scale. Earlier studies have performed an environmental assessment of MP on a theoretical basis but no study yet has used empirical data. An attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) with a cradle-to-gate approach was used to quantify global warming potential (GWP), land use, freshwater and marine eutrophication potential, water scarcity, human (non-)carcinogenic toxicity, and the cumulative energy demand (CED) of MP production in Finland. A Monte Carlo analysis was performed to assess uncertainties. The impacts of alternative production options and locations were explored. The impacts were compared with animal- and plant-based protein sources for human consumption as well as protein sources for feed. The results showed that electricity consumption had the highest contribution to environmental impacts. Therefore, the source of energy had a substantial impact on the results. MP production using hydropower as an energy source yielded 87.5% lower GWP compared to using the average Finnish electricity mix. In comparison with animal-based protein sources for food production, MP had 53-100% lower environmental impacts depending on the reference product and the source of energy assumed for MP production. When compared with plant-based protein sources for food production, MP had lower land and water use requirements, and eutrophication potential but GWP was reduced only if low-emission energy sources were used. Compared to protein sources for feed production, MP production often resulted in lower environmental impact for GWP (FHE), land use, and eutrophication and acidification potential, but generally caused high water scarcity and required more energy.
  • Terraube, J.; Van Doninck, J.; Helle, P.; Cabeza, M. (2020)
    Protected areas (PAs) are essential to prevent further biodiversity loss yet their effectiveness varies largely with governance and external threats. Although methodological advances have permitted assessments of PA effectiveness in mitigating deforestation, we still lack similar studies for the impact of PAs on wildlife populations. Here we use an innovative combination of matching methods and hurdle-mixed models with a large-scale and long-term dataset for Finland's large carnivore species. We show that the national PA network does not support higher densities than non-protected habitat for 3 of the 4 species investigated. For some species, PA effects interact with region or time, i.e., wolverine densities decreased inside PAs over the study period and lynx densities increased inside eastern PAs. We support the application of matching methods in combination of additional analytical frameworks for deeper understanding of conservation impacts on wildlife populations. These methodological advances are crucial for preparing ambitious PA targets post-2020. Assessing the effectiveness of protected areas for wildlife conservation is challenging. Here, Terraube et al. combine statistical matching and hurdle mixed-effects models to show that PAs have limited impact on population densities of large carnivores across Finland.
  • Kauppi, Pekka E.; Ciais, Philippe; Hogberg, Peter; Nordin, Annika; Lappi, Juha; Wernick, Iddo K. (2020)
    The growth of the global terrestrial sink of carbon dioxide has puzzled scientists for decades. We propose that the role of land management practices-from intensive forestry to allowing passive afforestation of abandoned lands-have played a major role in the growth of the terrestrial carbon sink in the decades since the mid twentieth century. The Forest Transition, a historic transition from shrinking to expanding forests, and from sparser to denser forests, has seen an increase of biomass and carbon across large regions of the globe. We propose that the contribution of Forest Transitions to the terrestrial carbon sink has been underestimated. Because forest growth is slow and incremental, changes in the carbon density in forest biomass and soils often elude detection. Measurement technologies that rely on changes in two-dimensional ground cover can miss changes in forest density. In contrast, changes from abrupt and total losses of biomass in land clearing, forest fires and clear cuts are easy to measure. Land management improves over time providing important present contributions and future potential to climate change mitigation. Appreciating the contributions of Forest Transitions to the sequestering of atmospheric carbon will enable its potential to aid in climate change mitigation.
  • Hoekman, David; LeVan, Katherine E.; Ball, George E.; Browne, Robert A.; Davidson, Robert L.; Erwin, Terry L.; Knisley, C. Barry; LaBonte, James R.; Lundgren, Jonathan; Maddison, David R.; Moore, Wendy; Niemelä, Jari; Ober, Karen A.; Pearson, David L.; Spence, John R.; Will, Kipling; Work, Timothy (2017)
    The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will monitor ground beetle populations across a network of broadly distributed sites because beetles are prevalent in food webs, are sensitive to abiotic factors, and have an established role as indicator species of habitat and climatic shifts. We describe the design of ground beetle population sampling in the context of NEON's long-term, continentalscale monitoring program, emphasizing the sampling design, priorities, and collection methods. Freely available NEON ground beetle data and associated field and laboratory samples will increase scientific understanding of how biological communities are responding to land-use and climate change.
  • Popp, Thomas; De Leeuw, Gerrit; Bingen, Christine; Bruehl, Christoph; Capelle, Virginie; Chedin, Alain; Clarisse, Lieven; Dubovik, Oleg; Grainger, Roy; Griesfeller, Jan; Heckel, Andreas; Kinne, Stefan; Klueser, Lars; Kosmale, Miriam; Kolmonen, Pekka; Lelli, Luca; Litvinov, Pavel; Mei, Linlu; North, Peter; Pinnock, Simon; Povey, Adam; Robert, Charles; Schulz, Michael; Sogacheva, Larisa; Stebel, Kerstin; Zweers, Deborah Stein; Thomas, Gareth; Tilstra, Lieuwe Gijsbert; Vandenbussche, Sophie; Veefkind, Pepijn; Vountas, Marco; Xue, Yong (2016)
    Producing a global and comprehensive description of atmospheric aerosols requires integration of ground-based, airborne, satellite and model datasets. Due to its complexity, aerosol monitoring requires the use of several data records with complementary information content. This paper describes the lessons learned while developing and qualifying algorithms to generate aerosol Climate Data Records (CDR) within the European Space Agency (ESA) Aerosol_cci project. An iterative algorithm development and evaluation cycle involving core users is applied. It begins with the application-specific refinement of user requirements, leading to algorithm development, dataset processing and independent validation followed by user evaluation. This cycle is demonstrated for a CDR of total Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from two subsequent dual-view radiometers. Specific aspects of its applicability to other aerosol algorithms are illustrated with four complementary aerosol datasets. An important element in the development of aerosol CDRs is the inclusion of several algorithms evaluating the same data to benefit from various solutions to the ill-determined retrieval problem. The iterative approach has produced a 17-year AOD CDR, a 10-year stratospheric extinction profile CDR and a 35-year Absorbing Aerosol Index record. Further evolution cycles have been initiated for complementary datasets to provide insight into aerosol properties (i.e., dust aerosol, aerosol absorption).
  • Zhou, P.; Luukkanen, O.; Tokola, T.; Nieminen, Juhana (2008)
  • Munukka, Matti; Waller, Benjamin; Häkkinen, Arja; Nieminen, Miika T.; Lammentausta, Eveliina; Kujala, Urho M.; Paloneva, Juha; Kautiainen, Hannu; Kiviranta, Ilkka; Heinonen, Ari (2020)
    Objective To conduct a secondary analysis to study the effects, those 4 months of aquatic resistance training have on self-assessed symptoms and quality of life in post-menopausal women with mild knee osteoarthritis (OA), after the intervention and after a 12-month follow-up period. Methods A total of 87 post-menopausal volunteer women, aged 60-68 years, with mild knee OA were recruited in a randomized, controlled, 4-month aquatic training trial (RCT) and randomly assigned to an intervention (n = 43) and a control (n = 44) group. The intervention group participated in 48 supervised aquatic resistance training sessions over 4 months while the control group maintained their usual level of physical activity. Additionally, 77 participants completed the 12-month post-intervention follow-up period. Self-assessed symptoms were estimated using the OA-specific Western Ontario and McMaster University Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and Health-related Quality of life (HRQoL) using the generic Short-form Health Survey (SF-36). Results After 4 months of aquatic resistance training, there was a significant decrease in the stiffness dimension of WOMAC -8.5 mm (95% CI = -14.9 to -2.0, P = .006) in the training group compared to the controls. After the cessation of the training, this benefit was no longer observed during the 12-month follow-up. No between-group differences were observed in any of the SF-36 dimensions. Conclusions The results of this study show that participation in an intensive aquatic resistance training program did not have any short- or long-term impact on pain and physical function or quality of life in women with mild knee OA. However, a small short-term decrease in knee stiffness was observed.
  • Saponaro, Giulia; Kolmonen, Pekka; Sogacheva, Larisa; Rodriguez, Edith; Virtanen, Timo; De Leeuw, Gerrit (2017)
    Retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on-board the Aqua satellite, 12 years (2003-2014) of aerosol and cloud properties were used to statistically quantify aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) over the Baltic Sea region, including the relatively clean Fennoscandia and the more polluted central-eastern Europe. These areas allowed us to study the effects of different aerosol types and concentrations on macro-and microphysical properties of clouds: cloud effective radius (CER), cloud fraction (CF), cloud optical thickness (COT), cloud liquid water path (LWP) and cloud-top height (CTH). Aerosol properties used are aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (AE) and aerosol index (AI). The study was limited to low-level water clouds in the summer. The vertical distributions of the relationships between cloud properties and aerosols show an effect of aerosols on low-level water clouds. CF, COT, LWP and CTH tend to increase with aerosol loading, indicating changes in the cloud structure, while the effective radius of cloud droplets decreases. The ACI is larger at relatively low cloud-top levels, between 900 and 700 hPa. Most of the studied cloud variables were unaffected by the lower-tropospheric stability (LTS), except for the cloud fraction. The spatial distribution of aerosol and cloud parameters and ACI, here defined as the change in CER as a function of aerosol concentration for a fixed LWP, shows positive and statistically significant ACI over the Baltic Sea and Fennoscandia, with the former having the largest values. Small negative ACI values are observed in central-eastern Europe, suggesting that large aerosol concentrations saturate the ACI.
  • Hentati-Sundberg, J.; Raymond, C.; Skoeld, M.; Svensson, O.; Gustafsson, B.; Bonaglia, S. (2020)
    Seabirds redistribute nutrients between different ecosystem compartments and over vast geographical areas. This nutrient transfer may impact both local ecosystems on seabird breeding islands and regional biogeochemical cycling, but these processes are seldom considered in local conservation plans or biogeochemical models. The island of Stora Karlso in the Baltic Sea hosts the largest concentration of piscivorous seabirds in the region, and also hosts a large colony of insectivorous House martins Delichon urbicum adjacent to the breeding seabirds. We show that a previously reported unusually high insectivore abundance was explained by large amounts of chironomids-highly enriched in delta N-15-that feed on seabird residues as larvae along rocky shores to eventually emerge as flying adults. Benthic ammonium and phosphate fluxes were up to 163% and 153% higher close to the colony (1,300 m distance) than further away (2,700 m) and the estimated nutrient release from the seabirds at were in the same order of magnitude as the loads from the largest waste-water treatment plants in the region. The trophic cascade impacting insectivorous passerines and the substantial redistribution of nutrients suggest that seabird nutrient transfer should be increasingly considered in local conservation plans and regional nutrient cycling models.
  • Kiheri, Heikki; Velmala, Sannakajsa; Pennanen, Taina; Timonen, Sari; Sietiö, Outi-Maaria; Fritze, Hannu; Heinonsalo, Jussi; van Dijk, Netty; Dise, Nancy; Larmola, Tuula (2020)
    Northern peatlands are often dominated by ericaceous shrub species which rely on ericoid mycorrhizal fungi (ERM) for access to organic sources of nutrients, such as nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), and host abundant dark septate endophytes (DSE). Relationships between hosts and fungal symbionts may change during deposition of anthropogenic N and P. We studied the long-term effects of N and P addition on two ericaceous shrubs, Calluna vulgaris and Erica tetralix, at Whim Bog, Scotland by analyzing fungal colonization of roots, enzymatic activity, and fungal species composition. Unexpectedly, the frequency of typical ERM intracellular colonization did not change while the occurrence of ERM hyphae tended to increase and DSE hyphae to decrease. Our findings indicate that altered nutrient limitations shift root associated fungal colonization patterns as well as affecting ericaceous root enzyme activity and thereby decomposition potential. Reduction of recalcitrant fungal biomass in melanized DSE may have implications for peatland C sequestration under nutrient addition.
  • Larjavaara, Markku; Kanninen, Markku; Ruesta, Harold Gordillo; Koskinen, Joni; Kukkonen, Markus; Käyhkö, Niina; Larson, Anne M.; Wunder, Sven (2018)
    Slowing the reduction, or increasing the accumulation, of organic carbon stored in biomass and soils has been suggested as a potentially rapid and cost-effective method to reduce the rate of atmospheric carbon increase(1). The costs of mitigating climate change by increasing ecosystem carbon relative to the baseline or business-as-usual scenario has been quantified in numerous studies, but results have been contradictory, as both methodological issues and substance differences cause variability(2). Here we show, based on 77 standardized face-to-face interviews of local experts with the best possible knowledge of local land-use economics and sociopolitical context in ten landscapes around the globe, that the estimated cost of increasing ecosystem carbon varied vastly and was perceived to be 16-27 times cheaper in two Indonesian landscapes dominated by peatlands compared with the average of the eight other landscapes. Hence, if reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) and other land-use mitigation efforts are to be distributed evenly across forested countries, for example, for the sake of international equity, their overall effectiveness would be dramatically lower than for a cost-minimizing distribution.
  • Reyes-García, Victoria; Gallois, Sandrine; Pyhälä, Aili; Diaz-Riviriego, Isabel; Fernandez-Llamazares Onrubia, Alvaro; Galbraith, Eric; Miñarro, Sara; Napitupulu, Tezza (2021)
    While cross-cultural research on subjective well-being and its multiple drivers is growing, the study of happiness among Indigenous peoples continues to be under-represented in the literature. In this work, we measure life satisfaction through open-ended questionnaires to explore levels and drivers of subjective well-being among 474 adults in three Indigenous societies across the tropics: the Tsimane’ in Bolivian lowland Amazonia, the Baka in southeastern Cameroon, and the Punan in Indonesian Borneo. We found that life satisfaction levels in the three studied societies are slightly above neutral, suggesting that most people in the sample consider themselves as moderately happy. We also found that respondents provided explanations mostly when their satisfaction with life was negative, as if moderate happiness was the normal state and explanations were only needed when reporting a different life satisfaction level due to some exceptionally good or bad occurrence. Finally, we also found that issues related to health and–to a lesser extent–social life were the more prominent explanations for life satisfaction. Our research not only highlights the importance to understand, appreciate and respect Indigenous peoples’ own perspectives and insights on subjective well-being, but also suggests that the greatest gains in subjective well-being might be achieved by alleviating the factors that tend to make people unhappy.
  • Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin (2018)
    The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as "inter-annual climate sensitivity". We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical interannual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.
  • Rodriguez, E.; Kolmonen, P.; Virtanen, T. H.; Sogacheva, L.; Sundström, Anu-Maija; de Leeuw, G. (2015)
    The Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) on board the ENVISAT satellite is used to study aerosol properties. The retrieval of aerosol properties from satellite data is based on the optimized fit of simulated and measured reflectances at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). The simulations are made using a radiative transfer model with a variety of representative aerosol properties. The retrieval process utilizes a combination of four aerosol components, each of which is defined by their (lognormal) size distribution and a complex refractive index: a weakly and a strongly absorbing fine-mode component, coarse mode sea salt aerosol and coarse mode desert dust aerosol). These components are externally mixed to provide the aerosol model which in turn is used to calculate the aerosol optical depth (AOD). In the AATSR aerosol retrieval algorithm, the mixing of these components is decided by minimizing the error function given by the sum of the differences between measured and calculated path radiances at 3-4 wavelengths, where the path radiances are varied by varying the aerosol component mixing ratios. The continuous variation of the fine-mode components allows for the continuous variation of the fine-mode aerosol absorption. Assuming that the correct aerosol model (i.e. the correct mixing fractions of the four components) is selected during the retrieval process, also other aerosol properties could be computed such as the single scattering albedo (SSA). Implications of this assumption regarding the ratio of the weakly/strongly absorbing fine-mode fraction are investigated in this paper by evaluating the validity of the SSA thus obtained. The SSA is indirectly estimated for aerosol plumes with moderate-to-high AOD resulting from wildfires in Russia in the summer of 2010. Together with the AOD, the SSA provides the aerosol absorbing optical depth (AAOD). The results are compared with AERONET data, i.e. AOD level 2.0 and SSA and AAOD inversion products. The RMSE (root mean square error) is 0.03 for SSA and 0.02 for AAOD lower than 0.05. The SSA is further evaluated by comparison with the SSA retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). The SSA retrieved from both instruments show similar features, with generally lower AATSR-estimated SSA values over areas affected by wildfires.
  • Cole, Robert; Brockhaus, Maria; Wong, Grace Yee; Kallio, Maarit Helena; Moeliono, Moira (2019)
    Themes of inclusion, empowerment, and participation are recurrent in development discourse and interventions, implying enablement of agency on the part of communities and individuals to inform and influence how policies that affect them are enacted. This article aims to contribute to debates on participation in rural development and environmental conservation, by applying a structure-agency lens to examine experiences of marginal farm households in three distinct systems of resource allocation in Lao PDR’s northern uplands—in other words, three institutional or (in)formal structures. These comprise livelihood development and poverty reduction projects, maize contract farming, and a national protected area. Drawing on qualitative data from focus group discussions and household surveys, the article explores the degree to which farmers may shape their engagement with the different systems, and ways in which agency may be enabled or disabled by this engagement. Our findings show that although some development interventions provide consultative channels for expressing needs, these are often within limited options set from afar. The market-based maize system, while in some ways agency-enabling, also entailed narrow choices and heavy dependence on external actors. The direct regulation of the protected area system meanwhile risked separating policy decisions from existing local knowledge. Our analytical approach moves beyond notions of agency commonly focused on decision-making and/or resistance, and instead revisits the structure-agency dichotomy to build a nuanced understanding of people’s lived experiences of interventions. This allows for fresh perspectives on the everyday enablement or disablement of agency, aiming to support policy that is better grounded in local realities. Keywords: agency, participation, rural development, forests, conservation, Lao PDR
  • Yli-Halla, Markku Juhani; Rimhanen, Karoliina; Muurinen, Johanna; Kaseva, Janne; Kahiluoto, Helena (2018)
    Soil carbon (C) represents the largest terrestrial carbon stock and is key for soil productivity. Major fractions of soil C consist of organic C, carbonates and black C. The turnover rate of black C is lower than that of organic C, and black C abundance decreases the vulnerablility of soil C stock to decomposition under climate change. The aim of this study was to determine the distribution of soil C in different pools and impact of agricultural management on the abundance of different species. Soil C fractions were quantified in the topsoils (0-15 cm) of 23 sites in the tropical highlands of Ethiopia. The sites in central Ethiopia represented paired plots of agroforestry and adjacent control plots where cereal crops were traditionally grown in clayey soils. In the sandy loam and loam soils of northern Ethiopia, the pairs represented restrained grazing with adjacent control plots with free grazing, and terracing with cereal-based cropping with adjacent control plots without terracing. Soil C contained in carbonates, organic matter and black C along with total C was determined. The total C median was 1.5% (range 0.33.6%). The median proportion of organic C was 85% (range 53-94%). 6% (0-41%) for carbonate C and 6% (421%) for black C. An increase was observed in the organic C and black C fractions attributable to agroforestry and restrained grazing. The very low concentration of the relatively stable black C fraction and the dominance of organic C in these Ethiopian soils suggest vulnerability to degradation and the necessity for cultivation practices maintaining the C stock. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Angelstam, Per; Manton, Michael; Elbakidze, Marine; Sijtsma, Frans; Adamescu, Mihai Cristian; Avni, Noa; Beja, Pedro; Bezak, Peter; Zyablikova, Iryna; Cruz, Fatima; Bretagnolle, Vincent; Díaz-Delgado, Ricardo; Ens, Bruno; Fedoriak, Mariia; Flaim, Giovanna; Gingrich, Simone; Lavi-Neeman, Miri; Medinets, Sergey; Melecis, Viesturs; Muñoz-Rojas, Jose; Schäckermann, Jessica; Stocker-Kiss, Andrea; Setälä, Heikki; Stryamets, Natalie; Taka, Maija; Tallec, Gaelle; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Törnblom, Johan; Yamelynets, Taras (2019)
    Context Place-based transdisciplinary research involves multiple academic disciplines and non-academic actors. Long-Term Socio-Ecological Research (LTSER) platform is one concept with similar to 80 initiatives globally.Objectives As an exercise in learning through evaluation we audited (1) the siting, construction and maintenance of individual LTSER platforms, and (2) them as a distributed infrastructure for place-based transdisciplinary research with focus on the European continent.MethodsFirst, we defined a normative model for ideal performance at both platform and network levels. Second, four surveys were sent out to the 67 self-reported LTSER platforms officially listed at the end of 2016. Third, with a focus on the network level, we analyzed the spatial distribution of both long-term ecological monitoring sites within LTSER platforms, and LTSER platforms across the European continent. Fourth, narrative biographies of 18 platforms in different stages of development were analyzed.ResultsWhile the siting of LTSER platforms represented biogeographical regions well, variations in land use history and democratic governance were not well represented. Platform construction was based on 2.1 ecological monitoring sites, with 72% ecosystem and 28% social system research. Maintenance of a platform required three to five staff members, focused mostly on ecosystem research, was based mainly on national funding, and had 1-2years of future funding secured. Networking with other landscape approach concepts was common.ConclusionsIndividually, and as a network, LTSER platforms have good potential for transdisciplinary knowledge production and learning about sustainability challenges. To improve the range of variation of Pan-European social-ecological systems we encourage interfacing with other landscape approach concepts.
  • Arvola, Anne; Malkamäki, Arttu; Penttilä, Juho; Toppinen, Anne (2019)
    In the rapidly growing Tanzanian economy, increasing demand for timber and limited wood supply from industrial plantations and natural forests have opened a new livelihood opportunity for smallholder farmers in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania, which is undergoing a tree-growing boom. In the absence of support services, research and statistics, the magnitude of the phenomena has remained unclear, along with the farmers’ capability to meet market demands, access the markets, and negotiate prices. Primary qualitative data were collected to clarify the role of smallholder tree growers in the forest transition process and wood value chain using 60 semi-structured tree farmer interviews in four villages, and through interviews of timber buyers and processors. The findings indicate that the strong market demand has created dual markets, where higher quality industrial plantations mainly supply larger industries, whereas micro and small enterprises source wood from lower quality smallholder plantations. While the markets’ quality criteria are expected to tighten, capacity building is needed to improve smallholder wood quality to ensure the long-run tree-growing livelihood and competitiveness of small-scale producers in the markets.
  • McCrackin, Michelle L.; Gustafsson, Bo G.; Hong, Bongghi; Howarth, Robert W.; Humborg, Christoph; Savchuk, Oleg P.; Svanback, Annika; Swaney, Dennis P. (2018)
    While progress has been made in reducing external nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea, further actions are needed to meet the goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP), especially for the Baltic Proper, Gulf of Finland, and Gulf of Riga sub-basins. We used the net anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs (NANI and NAPI, respectively) nutrient accounting approach to construct three scenarios of reduced NANI-NAPI. Reductions assumed that manure nutrients were redistributed from areas with intense animal production to areas that focus on crop production and would otherwise import synthetic and mineral fertilizers. We also used the Simple as Necessary Baltic Long Term Large Scale (SANBALTS) model to compare eutrophication conditions for the scenarios to current and BSAP-target conditions. The scenarios suggest that reducing NANI-NAPI by redistributing manure nutrients, together with improving agronomic practices, could meet 54-82% of the N reductions targets (28-43 kt N reduction) and 38-64% P reduction targets (4-6.6 kt P reduction), depending on scenario. SANBALTS output showed that even partial fulfillment of nutrient reduction targets could have ameliorating effects on eutrophication conditions. Meeting BSAP targets will require addressing additional sources, such as sewage. A common approach to apportioning sources to external nutrients loads could enable further assessment of the feasibility of eutrophication management targets.