Browsing by Subject "LEVEL RISE"

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  • Meier, H. E. Markus; Edman, Moa; Eilola, Kari; Placke, Manja; Neumann, Thomas; Andersson, Helén C.; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Dieterich, Christian; Frauen, Claudia; Friedland, René; Gröger, Matthias; Gustafsson, Bo G.; Gustafsson, Erik; Isaev, Alexey; Kniebusch, Madline; Kuznetsov, Ivan; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Naumann, Michael; Omstedt, Anders; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Saraiva, Sofia; Savchuk, Oleg P. (2019)
    Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.
  • Luoma, S.; Okkonen, J.; Korkka-Niemi, K.; Hendriksson, N.; Backman, B. (2015)
    The groundwater in a shallow, unconfined, low-lying coastal aquifer in Santala, southern Finland, was chemically characterised by integrating multivariate statistical approaches, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), based on the stable isotopes delta H-2 and delta O-18, hydrogeochemistry and field monitoring data. PCA and HCA yielded similar results and classified groundwater samples into six distinct groups that revealed the factors controlling temporal and spatial variations in the groundwater geochemistry, such as the geology, anthropogenic sources from human activities, climate and surface water. High temporal variation in groundwater chemistry directly corresponded to precipitation. With an increase in precipitation, KMnO4 consumption, EC, alkalinity and Ca concentrations also increased in most wells, while Fe, Al, Mn and SO4 were occasionally increased during spring after the snowmelt under specific geological conditions. The continued increase in NO3 and metal concentrations in groundwater indicates the potential contamination risk to the aquifer. Stable isotopes of delta O-18 and delta H-2 indicate groundwater recharge directly from meteoric water, with an insignificant contribution from lake water, and no seawater intrusion into the aquifer. Groundwater geochemistry suggests that local seawater intrusion is temporarily able to take place in the sulfate reduction zone along the freshwater and seawater mixed zone in the low-lying coastal area, but the contribution of seawater was found to be very low. The influence of lake water could be observed from higher levels of KMnO4 consumption in wells near the lake. The integration of PCA and HCA with conventional classification of groundwater types, as well as with the hydrogeochemical data, provided useful tools to identify the vulnerable groundwater areas representing the impacts of both natural and human activities on water quality and the understanding of complex groundwater flow system for the aquifer vulnerability assessment and groundwater management in the future.