The numbers of reported human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) cases in Europe have increased in several endemic regions (including Finland) in recent decades, indicative of an increasing threat to public health. As such, it is important to identify the regions at risk and the most influential factors associated with TBE distributions, particularly in understudied regions. This study aimed to identify the risk areas of TBE transmission in two different datasets based on human TBE disease cases from 2007 to 2011 (n = 86) and 2012-2017 (n = 244). We also examined which factors best explain the presence of human TBE cases. We used ensemble modelling to determine the relationship of TBE occurrence with environmental, ecological, and anthropogenic factors in Finland. Geospatial data including these variables were acquired from several open data sources and satellite and aerial imagery and, were processed in GIS software. Biomod2, an ensemble platform designed for species dis-tribution modelling, was used to generate ensemble models in R. The proportion of built-up areas, field, forest, and snow-covered land in November, people working in the primary sector, human population density, mean precipitation in April and July, and densities of European hares, white-tailed deer, and raccoon dogs best es-timated distribution of human TBE disease cases in the two datasets. Random forest and generalized boosted regression models performed with a very good to excellent predictive power (ROC = 0.89-0.96) in both time periods. Based on the predictive maps, high-risk areas for TBE transmission were located in the coastal regions in Southern and Western Finland (including the angstrom land Islands), several municipalities in Central and Eastern Finland, and coastal municipalities in Southern Lapland. To explore potential changes in TBE distributions in future climate, we used bioclimatic factors with current and future climate forecast data to reveal possible future hotspot areas. Based on the future forecasts, a slightly wider geographical extent of TBE risk was introduced in the angstrom land Islands and Southern, Western and Northern Finland, even though the risk itself was not increased. Our results are the first steps towards TBE-risk area mapping in current and future climate in Finland.

The generalist tick Ixodes ricinus is the most important vector for tick-borne pathogens (TBP), including Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, in Europe. However, the involvement of other sympatric Ixodes ticks, such as the specialist vole tick I. trianguliceps, in the enzootic circulations of TBP remains unclear. We studied the distribution of I. ricinus and I. trianguliceps in Central Finland and estimated the TBP infection likelihood in the most common rodent host in relation with the abundance of the two tick species. Ixodes trianguliceps was encountered in all 16 study sites whereas I. ricinus was frequently observed only at a quarter of the study sites. The abundance of I. ricinus was positively associated with open water coverage and human population density around the study sites. Borrelia burgdorferi s. l.-infected rodents were found only in sites where I. ricinus was abundant, whereas the occurrence of other TBP was independent of I. ricinus presence. These results suggest that I. trianguliceps is not sufficient, at least alone, in maintaining the circulation of B. burgdorferi s. l. in wild hosts. In addition, anthropogenic factors might affect the distribution of I. ricinus ticks and, hence, their pathogens, thus shaping the landscape of tick-borne disease risk for humans.