In this thesis the changed paradigm of international climate policy from negotiated top-down targets of the Kyoto era to the new, Paris Agreement bottom-up mitigation contributions, NDCs is introduced. NDCs are submitted to the UNFCCC on the basis of what countries consider as their fair share of efforts in line with global warming targets, equity considerations and national circumstances. This means that normative decisions on fairness need to be made when selecting a long-term target required by the Paris Agreement. For this purpose, a framework was developed for considering some of the key issues that emerge in examining long-term climate policy. Different equity measures exist for assessing fairness, of which Equality, Ability to Pay and Historic Responsibility were selected as the ones to consider, since they are the most unambiguous as formulas and are the most prevalent in carbon budget allocation studies. The Paris Agreement temperature targets can be calculated into carbon budgets, of which the most recent IPCC estimation for the 1.5 degree budget was selected and subsequent global emissions subtracted from. To be able to consider all sources and sinks of GHGs, the carbon budgets are applied GHG budgets instead of purely carbon budgets and all emissions and sinks reported in national GHG inventories are included, which are reported in line with IPCC 2006 guidelines. While not a completely accurate utilisation of the carbon budget, this approach is sufficient for examining climate policy ambition. The equity calculations for allocating the GHG budget to countries for the period of 2020-2050 produced an emissions reduction pathway while the land-use sector net sink was kept fixed according to the historical average with an illustrative pathway for required additional emissions removals. These results were presented in graphs, and key figures pointed out, such as the mitigation rate, the year GHG neutrality occurs, what the 2050 end result is as a reduction of emissions compared to 1990, and at what rate emissions removals are required to increase. The goal of suggesting a long-term climate policy target in line with climate science, equity and 1.5 global carbon budget was successful in part; all the set conditions were successfully applied and a calculation alongside a demonstrative graph with specific key targets was produced. However, some of the results were unrealistic for applying to real life conditions, such as the amount of emissions removals required in some cases. Mitigation rates, which were fixed as linear, were very drastic in some cases, which might not be possible in present conditions. Contrary to what initially was set out to discover, GHG neutrality targets to be achieved in the 2030s for most cases transpire as the most significant result. GHG neutrality is however only a milestone toward a long-term target, which based on these case studies is a significantly over 100% emissions reduction target.

There is growing interest in designing and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation (M + A) in synergy in the forest and land use sectors. However, there is limited knowledge on how the planning and promotion of synergies between M + A can be operationalized in the current efforts to mitigate climate change through forest carbon. This paper contributes to fill this knowledge gap by exploring ways of planning and promoting M + A synergy outcomes in forest carbon initiatives. It examines eight guidelines that are widely used in designing and implementing forest carbon initiatives. Four guiding principles with a number of criteria that are relevant for planning synergy outcomes in forest carbon activities are proposed. The guidelines for developing forest carbon initiatives need to demonstrate that (1) the health of forest ecosystems is maintained or enhanced; (2) the adaptive capacity of forest-dependent communities is ensured; (3) carbon and adaptation benefits are monitored and verified; and (4) adaptation outcomes are anticipated and planned in forest carbon initiatives. The forest carbon project development guidelines can encourage the integration of adaptation in forest carbon initiatives. However, their current efforts guiding projects and programs to deliver biodiversity and environmental benefits, ecosystem services, and socioeconomic benefits are not considered explicitly as efforts towards enhancing adaptation. An approach for incentivizing and motivating project developers, guideline setters, and offset buyers is imperative in order to enable existing guidelines to make clear contributions to adaptation goals. We highlight and discuss potential ways of incentivizing and motivating the explicit planning and promotion of adaptation outcomes in forest carbon initiatives.

Recent studies show that lifestyle changes can provide an essential contribution to achieving the Paris climate targets. While some efforts have been made to incorporate lifestyle changes into model-based scenarios, the attempts are currently very stylised and included exogenously. This paper discusses current efforts to represent lifestyle change in models, and analyses potential insights from relevant scientific disciplines to improve the representation of lifestyle changes in models – including modelling specific behaviour changes, identifying cross-cutting lifestyle solutions, representing the intentions behind the changes and quantifying their impacts. As such, this research attempts to bridge the gap between qualitative and quantitative theories and methodologies. Based on the results of this literature analysis, we recommend defining lifestyle changes more harmoniously, exploring an expanded range of approaches, domains and transformative solutions, adopting a whole-systems approach, and addressing the trade-offs between the use of exogenous inputs and endogenous modelling. © 2019 The Authors