Browsing by Subject "Mortality"

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  • ERSPC Investigators; Hugosson, Jonas; Roobol, Monique J.; Mansson, Marianne; Tammela, Teuvo L. J.; Talala, Kirsi M.; Kilpeläinen, Tuomas P.; Stenman, Ulf H.; Kujala, Paula; Taari, Kimmo; Auvinen, Anssi (2019)
    Background: The European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) has previously demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening decreases prostate cancer (PCa) mortality. Objective: To determine whether PSA screening decreases PCa mortality for up to 16 yr and to assess results following adjustment for nonparticipation and the number of screening rounds attended. Design, setting, and participants: This multicentre population-based randomised screening trial was conducted in eight European countries. Report includes 182 160 men, followed up until 2014 (maximum of 16 yr), with a predefined core age group of 162 389 men (55-69 yr), selected from population registry. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: The outcome was PCa mortality, also assessed with adjustment for nonparticipation and the number of screening rounds attended. Results and limitations: The rate ratio of PCa mortality was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.72-0.89, p <0.001) at 16 yr. The difference in absolute PCa mortality increased from 0.14% at 13 yr to 0.18% at 16 yr. The number of men needed to be invited for screening to prevent one PCa death was 570 at 16 yr compared with 742 at 13 yr. The number needed to diagnose was reduced to 18 from 26 at 13 yr. Men with PCa detected during the first round had a higher prevalence of PSA >20 ng/ml (9.9% compared with 4.1% in the second round, p <0.001) and higher PCa mortality (hazard ratio = 1.86, p <0.001) than those detected subsequently. Conclusions: Findings corroborate earlier results that PSA screening significantly reduces PCa mortality, showing larger absolute benefit with longer follow-up and a reduction in excess incidence. Repeated screening may be important to reduce PCa mortality on a population level. Patient summary: In this report, we looked at the outcomes from prostate cancer in a large European population. We found that repeated screening reduces the risk of dying from prostate cancer. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association of Urology.
  • Heikkilä, Elisa; Salminen, Marika; Viljanen, Anna; Katajamäki, Taina; Koivula, Marja-Kaisa; Pulkki, Kari; Isoaho, Raimo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Viitanen, Matti; Löppönen, Minna; Vahlberg, Tero; Viikari, Laura; Irjala, Kerttu (2021)
    BackgroundPreviously, several indexes based on a large number of clinical and laboratory tests to predict mortality and frailty have been produced. However, there is still a need for an easily applicable screening tool for every-day clinical practice.MethodsA prospective study with 10- and 18-year follow-ups. Fourteen common laboratory tests were combined to an index. Cox regression model was used to analyse the association of the laboratory index with institutionalization and mortality.ResultsThe mean age of the participants (n =1153) was 73.6 (SD 6.8, range 64.0-100.0) years. Altogether, 151 (14.8%) and 305 (29.9%) subjects were institutionalized and 422 (36.6%) and 806 (69.9%) subjects deceased during the 10- and 18-year follow-ups, respectively. Higher LI (laboratory index) scores predicted increased mortality. Mortality rates increased as LI scores increased both in unadjusted and in age- and gender-adjusted models during both follow-ups. The LI did not significantly predict institutionalization either during the 10- or 18-year follow-ups.ConclusionsA practical index based on routine laboratory tests can be used to predict mortality among older people. An LI could be automatically counted from routine laboratory results and thus an easily applicable screening instrument in clinical settings.
  • Heikkilä, Elisa; Salminen, Marika; Viljanen, Anna; Katajamäki, Taina; Koivula, Marja-Kaisa; Pulkki, Kari; Isoaho, Raimo; Kivelä, Sirkka-Liisa; Viitanen, Matti; Löppönen, Minna; Vahlberg, Tero; Viikari, Laura; Irjala, Kerttu (BioMed Central, 2021)
    Abstract Background Previously, several indexes based on a large number of clinical and laboratory tests to predict mortality and frailty have been produced. However, there is still a need for an easily applicable screening tool for every-day clinical practice. Methods A prospective study with 10- and 18-year follow-ups. Fourteen common laboratory tests were combined to an index. Cox regression model was used to analyse the association of the laboratory index with institutionalization and mortality. Results The mean age of the participants (n = 1153) was 73.6 (SD 6.8, range 64.0–100.0) years. Altogether, 151 (14.8%) and 305 (29.9%) subjects were institutionalized and 422 (36.6%) and 806 (69.9%) subjects deceased during the 10- and 18-year follow-ups, respectively. Higher LI (laboratory index) scores predicted increased mortality. Mortality rates increased as LI scores increased both in unadjusted and in age- and gender-adjusted models during both follow-ups. The LI did not significantly predict institutionalization either during the 10- or 18-year follow-ups. Conclusions A practical index based on routine laboratory tests can be used to predict mortality among older people. An LI could be automatically counted from routine laboratory results and thus an easily applicable screening instrument in clinical settings.
  • Auvinen, Anssi; Rannikko, Antti; Taari, Kimmo; Kujala, Paula; Mirtti, Tuomas; Kenttämies, Anu; Rinta-Kiikka, Irina; Lehtimäki, Terho; Oksala, Niku; Pettersson, Kim; Tammela, Teuvo L. (2017)
    The current evidence of PSA-based prostate cancer screening shows a reduction in cause-specific mortality, but with substantial overdiagnosis. Recently, new developments in detection of clinically relevant prostate cancer include multiple kallikreins as biomarkers besides PSA, and multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) for biopsy decision. They offer opportunities for improving the outcomes in screening, particularly reduction in overdiagnosis and higher specificity for potentially lethal cancer. A population-based randomized screening trial will be started, with 67,000 men aged 55-67 years at entry. A quarter of the men will be allocated to the intervention arm, and invited to screening. The control arm will receive no intervention. All men in the screening arm will be offered a serum PSA determination. Those with PSA of 3 ng/ml or higher will have an additional multi-kallikrein panel and those with indications of increased risk of clinically relevant prostate cancer will undergo mpMRI. Men with a malignancy-suspect finding in MRI are referred to targeted biopsies. Screening interval is 6 years for men with baseline PSA <1.5 ng/ml, 4 years with PSA 1.5-3.0 and 2 years if initial PSA > 3. The main outcome of the trial is prostate cancer mortality, with analysis at 10 and 15 years. The statistical power is sufficient for detecting a 28% reduction at 10 years and 22% at 15 years. The proposed study has the potential to provide the evidence to justify screening as a public health policy if mortality benefit can be sustained with substantially reduced overdiagnosis.
  • Niimura del Barrio, Maria C; David, Florent; Hughes, J. M L; Clifford, David; Wilderjans, Hans; Bennett, Rachel (BioMed Central, 2018)
    Abstract Background The mortality rate of horses undergoing general anaesthesia is high when compared to humans or small animal patients. One of the most critical periods during equine anaesthesia is recovery, as the horse attempts to regain a standing position. This study was performed in a private equine practice in Belgium that uses a purpose-designed one-man (head and tail) rope recovery system to assist the horse during the standing process. The main purpose of the retrospective study was to report and analyse complications and the mortality rate in horses during recovery from anaesthesia using the described recovery system. Information retrieved from the medical records included patient signalment, anaesthetic protocol, duration of anaesthesia, ASA grade, type of surgery, recovery time and complications during recovery. Sedation was administered to all horses prior to recovery with the rope system. Complications were divided into major complications in which the horse was euthanized and minor complications where the horse survived. Major complications were further subdivided into those where the rope system did not contribute to the recovery complication (Group 1) and those where it was not possible to determine if the rope system was of any benefit (Group 2). Results Five thousand eight hundred fifty two horses recovered from general anaesthesia with rope assistance. Complications were identified in 30 (0.51%). Major complications occurred in 12 horses (0.20%) of which three (0.05%) were assigned to Group 1 and nine (0.15%) to Group 2. Three horses in Group 2 suffered musculoskeletal injuries (0.05%). Eighteen horses (0.31%) suffered minor complications, of which five (0.08%) were categorised as failures of the recovery system. Conclusions This study reports the major and minor complication and mortality rate during recovery from anaesthesia using a specific type of rope recovery system. Mortality associated with the rope recovery system was low. During recovery from anaesthesia this rope system may reduce the risk of lethal complications, particularly major orthopaedic injuries.
  • Kirkegaard, Hans; Pedersen, Asger Roer; Pettilä, Ville; Hjort, Jakob; Rasmussen, Bodil Steen; de Haas, Inge; Nielsen, Jorgen Feldbaek; Ilkjaer, Susanne; Kaltoft, Anne; Jeppesen, Anni Norgaard; Grejs, Anders Morten; Duez, Christophe Henri Valdemar; Larsen, Alf Inge; Toome, Valdo; Arus, Urmet; Taccone, Fabio Silvio; Storm, Christian; Laitio, Timo; Skrifvars, Markus; Soreide, Eldar (2016)
    Background: The TTH48 trial aims to determine whether prolonged duration (48 hours) of targeted temperature management (TTM) at 33 (+/- 1) degrees C results in better neurological outcomes compared to standard duration (24 hours) after six months in comatose out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. Methods: TTH48 is an investigator-initiated, multicentre, assessor-blinded, randomised, controlled superiority trial of 24 and 48 hours of TTM at 33 (+/- 1) degrees C performed in 355 comatose OHCA patients aged 18 to 80 years who were admitted to ten intensive care units (ICUs) in six Northern European countries. The primary outcome of the study is the Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) score observed at six months after cardiac arrest. CPC scores of 1 and 2 are defined as good neurological outcomes, and CPC scores of 3, 4 and 5 are defined as poor neurological outcomes. The secondary outcomes are as follows: mortality within six months after cardiac arrest, CPC at hospital discharge, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on day 4, length of stay in ICU and at hospital and the presence of any adverse events such as cerebral, circulatory, respiratory, gastrointestinal, renal, metabolic measures, infection or bleeding. With the planned sample size, we have 80% power to detect a 15% improvement in good neurological outcomes at a two-sided statistical significance level of 5%. Discussion: We present a detailed statistical analysis protocol (SAP) that specifies how primary and secondary outcomes should be evaluated. We also predetermine covariates for adjusted analyses and pre-specify sub-groups for sensitivity analyses. This pre-planned SAP will reduce analysis bias and add validity to the findings of this trial on the effect of length of TTM on important clinical outcomes after cardiac arrest.
  • Tolppanen, Heli; Rivas-Lasarte, Mercedes; Lassus, Johan; Sans-Rosello, Jordi; Hartmann, Oliver; Lindholm, Matias; Arrigo, Mattia; Tarvasmäki, Tuukka; Kober, Lars; Thiele, Holger; Pulkki, Kari; Spinar, Jindrich; Parissis, John; Banaszewski, Marek; Silva-Cardoso, Jose; Carubelli, Valentina; Sionis, Alessandro; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Mebazaa, Alexandre (2017)
    Background: The clinical CardShock risk score, including baseline lactate levels, was recently shown to facilitate risk stratification in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS). As based on baseline parameters, however, it may not reflect the change in mortality risk in response to initial therapies. Adrenomedullin is a prognostic biomarker in several cardiovascular diseases and was recently shown to associate with hemodynamic instability in patients with septic shock. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic value and association with hemodynamic parameters of bioactive adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) in patients with CS. Methods: CardShock was a prospective, observational, European multinational cohort study of CS. In this sub-analysis, serial plasma bio-ADM and arterial blood lactate measurements were collected from 178 patients during the first 10 days after detection of CS. Results: Both bio-ADM and lactate were higher in 90-day non-survivors compared to survivors at all time points (P <0.05 for all). Lactate showed good prognostic value during the initial 24 h (AUC 0.78 at admission and 0.76 at 24 h). Subsequently, lactate returned normal ( 55.7 pg/mL) at 48 h compared to those with low bio-ADM levels (49.1 vs. 22.6%, P = 0.001). High levels of bio-ADM were associated with impaired cardiac index, mean arterial pressure, central venous pressure, and systolic pulmonary artery pressure during the study period. Furthermore, high levels of bio-ADM at 48 to 96 h were related to persistently impaired cardiac and end-organ function. Conclusions: Bio-ADM is a valuable prognosticator and marker of impaired hemodynamics in CS patients. High levels of bio-ADM may show shock refractoriness and developing end-organ dysfunction and thus help to guide therapeutic approach in patients with CS.
  • Tolppanen, Heli; Rivas-Lasarte, Mercedes; Lassus, Johan; Sans-Roselló, Jordi; Hartmann, Oliver; Lindholm, Matias; Arrigo, Mattia; Tarvasmäki, Tuukka; Köber, Lars; Thiele, Holger; Pulkki, Kari; Spinar, Jindrich; Parissis, John; Banaszewski, Marek; Silva-Cardoso, Jose; Carubelli, Valentina; Sionis, Alessandro; Harjola, Veli-Pekka; Mebazaa, Alexandre (Springer Paris, 2017)
    Abstract Background The clinical CardShock risk score, including baseline lactate levels, was recently shown to facilitate risk stratification in patients with cardiogenic shock (CS). As based on baseline parameters, however, it may not reflect the change in mortality risk in response to initial therapies. Adrenomedullin is a prognostic biomarker in several cardiovascular diseases and was recently shown to associate with hemodynamic instability in patients with septic shock. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prognostic value and association with hemodynamic parameters of bioactive adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) in patients with CS. Methods CardShock was a prospective, observational, European multinational cohort study of CS. In this sub-analysis, serial plasma bio-ADM and arterial blood lactate measurements were collected from 178 patients during the first 10 days after detection of CS. Results Both bio-ADM and lactate were higher in 90-day non-survivors compared to survivors at all time points (P < 0.05 for all). Lactate showed good prognostic value during the initial 24 h (AUC 0.78 at admission and 0.76 at 24 h). Subsequently, lactate returned normal (≤2 mmol/L) in most patients regardless of later outcome with lower prognostic value. By contrast, bio-ADM showed increasing prognostic value from 48 h and beyond (AUC 0.71 at 48 h and 0.80 at 5–10 days). Serial measurements of either bio-ADM or lactate were independent of and provided added value to CardShock risk score (P < 0.001 for both). Ninety-day mortality was more than double higher in patients with high levels of bio-ADM (>55.7 pg/mL) at 48 h compared to those with low bio-ADM levels (49.1 vs. 22.6%, P = 0.001). High levels of bio-ADM were associated with impaired cardiac index, mean arterial pressure, central venous pressure, and systolic pulmonary artery pressure during the study period. Furthermore, high levels of bio-ADM at 48 to 96 h were related to persistently impaired cardiac and end-organ function. Conclusions Bio-ADM is a valuable prognosticator and marker of impaired hemodynamics in CS patients. High levels of bio-ADM may show shock refractoriness and developing end-organ dysfunction and thus help to guide therapeutic approach in patients with CS. Study identifier of CardShock study NCT01374867 at clinicaltrials.gov
  • Lehto, Joonas; Gunn, Jarmo; Björn, Rikhard; Malmberg, Markus; Airaksinen, K. E. Juhani; Kytö, Ville; Nieminen, Tuomo; Hartikainen, Juha E. K.; Biancari, Fausto; Kiviniemi, Tuomas O. (2020)
  • Mikkola, Tuija M.; Kautiainen, Hannu; Mänty, Minna; von Bonsdorff, Mikaela B.; Kröger, Teppo; Eriksson, Johan G. (2021)
    Background Evidence on family caregivers' health is conflicting. Aim To investigate all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Finnish family caregivers providing high-intensity care and to assess whether age modifies the association between family caregiver status and mortality using data from multiple national registers. Methods The data include all individuals, who received family caregiver's allowance in Finland in 2012 (n = 42,256, mean age 67 years, 71% women) and a control population matched for age, sex, and municipality of residence (n = 83,618). Information on dates and causes of death between 2012 and 2017 were obtained from the Finnish Causes of Death Register. Results Family caregivers had lower all-cause mortality than the controls over the follow-up (8.1 vs. 11.6%) both among women (socioeconomic status adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.64, 95% CI 0.61-0.68) and men (adjusted HR: 0.73, 95% CI 0.70-0.77). When modelling all-cause mortality as a function of age, younger caregivers had only slightly lower or equal mortality to their controls, but older caregivers had markedly lower mortality than their controls, up to more than 10% lower. Caregivers had a lower mortality rate for all the causes of death studied, namely cardiovascular, cancer, neurological, external, respiratory, gastrointestinal and dementia. The lowest risk was for dementia (subhazard ratio = 0.29, 95% CI 0.25-0.34). Conclusions Older family caregivers had lower mortality than the age-matched general population while mortality did not differ according to caregiver status in young adulthood. This age-dependent advantage in mortality is likely to reflect the selection of healthier individuals into the family caregiver role.
  • Xin, Guanyu; Ruohoalho, Johanna; BÄck, Leif; Aro, Katri; Tapiovaara, Laura (2019)
    PurposeTo review indications, patient characteristics, frequency, and safety for surgical tracheostomies performed by otolaryngologist-head and neck surgeons in a single tertiary care center.MethodsSurgical tracheostomies performed by otolaryngologist-head and neck surgeons at Helsinki University Hospital between January 2014 and February 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Patient demographics, surgical data, and peri- and postoperative mortality information were collected from the hospital charts. Minimum follow-up was 18months.ResultsThe total population was 255, with a majority (n=181; 71%) of males. The majority of patients (n=178; 70%) were classified as ASA 3 or 4. A total of 198 (78%) patients suffered from head and neck cancer. Multiple (14 altogether) indications for tracheostomy were identified, and simultaneous major head and neck tumor surgery was common (in 58%). Altogether, 163 (64%) patients were decannulated during follow-up with a median cannulation period of 9days (range 1-425). The surgical mortality was 0.4%.ConclusionSimultaneously performed major tumor surgery was the most common indication for a tracheostomy. A notable number of patients had impaired physical status, but relatively insignificant comorbidities. Almost two-thirds of the patients were decannulated during follow-up, although some patients remained tracheostomy dependent for a prolonged period. Tracheostomy was found to be a safe procedure.Level of evidence2b.
  • GREAT Global Res Acute Conditions; INI-CRCT Invest Network Initiative; Legrand, Matthieu; Lassus, Johan; Harjola, Veli-Pekka (2018)
    Background The interaction between chronic medications on admission and the association between serum potassium level and outcome in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) are unknown. Methods Observational intercontinental study of patients admitted with AHF. 15954 patients were included from 12 cohorts in 4 continents. Main outcome was 90-day mortality. Clinical presentation (medication use, hemodynamics, comorbidities), demographic, echocardiographic, and biochemical data on admission were recorded prospectively in each cohort, with prospective adjudication of outcomes. Results Positive and negative linear relationships between 90-day mortality and sK+ above 4.5 mmol/L (hyperkalemia) and below 3.5 mmol/L (hypo-kalemia) were observed. Hazard ratio for death was 1.46 [1.34-1.58] for hyperkalemia and 1.22 [1.06-1.40] for hypokalemia. In a fully adjusted model, only hyperkalemia remained associated with mortality (HR 1.03 [1.02-1.04] for each 0.1 mmol/l change of sK+ above 4.5 mmol/L). Interaction tests revealed that the association between hyperkalemia and outcome was significantly affected by chronic medications. The association between hyperkalemia and mortality was absent for patients treated with beta blockers and in those with preserved renal function. Conclusions In patients with AHF, sK+ > 4.5 mmol/L appears to be associated with 90-day mortality. B-blockers have potentially a protective effect in the setting of hyperkalemia.
  • Tarkiainen, Lasse; Moustgaard, Heta; Korhonen, Kaarina; Noordzij, J. Mark; Beenackers, Marielle A.; van Lenthe, Frank J.; Burstrom, Bo; Martikainen, Pekka (2021)
    Background Research evidence on the association between neighbourhood characteristics and individual mental health at older ages is inconsistent, possibly due to heterogeneity in the measurement of mental-health outcomes, neighbourhood characteristics and confounders. Register-based data enabled us to avoid these problems in this longitudinal study on the associations between socioeconomic and physical neighbourhood characteristics and individual antidepressant use in three national contexts. Methods We used register-based longitudinal data on the population aged 50+ from Turin (Italy), Stockholm (Sweden), and the nine largest cities in Finland linked to satellite-based land-cover data. This included individual-level information on sociodemographic factors and antidepressant use, and on neighbourhood socioeconomic characteristics, levels of urbanicity, green space and land-use mix (LUM). We assessed individual-level antidepressant use over 6 years in 2001-2017 using mixed-effects logistic regression. Results A higher neighbourhood proportion of low-educated individuals predicted lower odds for antidepressant use in Turin and Stockholm when individual-level sociodemographic factors were controlled for. Urbanicity predicted increased antidepressant use in Stockholm (OR=1.02; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.03) together with more LUM (OR=1.03; 1.01-1.05) and population density (OR=1.08; 1.05-1.10). The two latter characteristics also predicted increased antidepressant use in the Finnish cities (OR=1.05; 1.02-1.08 and OR=1.14; 1.02-1.28, respectively). After accounting for all studied neighbourhood and individual characteristics of the residents, the neighbourhoods still varied by odds of antidepressant use. Conclusions Overall, the associations of neighbourhood socioeconomic and physical characteristics with older people's antidepressant use were small and inconsistent. However, we found modest evidence that dense physical urban environments predicted higher antidepressant use among older people in Stockholm and the Finnish cities.
  • Strandberg, T. E.; von Bonsdorff, M.; Strandberg, A.; Pitkala, K.; Raikkonen, K. (2017)
    Introduction: There are few longitudinal studies of relationships between vacation and later health outcomes. We studied these during a 26-year follow-up of the Helsinki Businessmen Study. Methods: In 1974, at mean age of 47 years, 2741 members of a cohort of executives and businessmen born 1919-1934 were clinically examined and reported their annual vacation time (dichotomized >21 [n = 2001]vs. Results: At baseline, shorter vacation was associated with longer work time, higher BMI, more coffee consumption and worse SRH. During the 26-year follow-up, 778 men out of 2741 (28.4%) had died. Shorter annual vacation was associated with higher mortality with curves starting to diverge after 18 years of follow-up, (fully adjusted hazard ratio 1.29, 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.55, P = 0.005). In old age, shorter vacation in midlife was tentatively associated with worse general health. Conclusions: Shorter vacation time in midlife was associated with characteristics related to lifestyle and with worse perceived health status, and predicted mortality up to old age in men. (C) 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS and European Union Geriatric Medicine Society. All rights reserved.
  • Ryynanen, Olli-Pekka; Soini, Erkki J.; Lindqvist, Ari; Kilpelainen, Maritta; Laitinen, Tarja (2013)
    Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is associated with increased mortality and poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL) compared with the general population. The objective of this study was to identify clinical characteristics which predict mortality and very poor HRQoL among the COPD population and to develop a Bayesian prediction model. Methods: The data consisted of 738 patients with COPD who had visited the Pulmonary Clinic of the Helsinki and Turku University Hospitals during 1995-2006. The data set contained 49 potential predictor variables and two outcome variables: survival (dead/alive) and HRQoL measured with a 15D instrument (very poor HRQoL <0.70 vs. typical HRQoL >= 0.70). In the first phase of model validation we randomly divided the material into a training set (n = 538), and a test set (n = 200). This procedure was repeated ten times in random fashion to obtain independently created training sets and corresponding test sets. Modeling was performed by using the training set, and each model was tested by using the corresponding test set, repeated in each training set. In the second phase the final model was created by using the total material and eighteen most predictive variables. The performance of six logistic regressions approaches were shown for comparison purposes. Results: In the final model, the following variables were associated with mortality or very poor HRQoL: age at onset, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes, alcohol abuse, cancer, psychiatric disease, body mass index, Forced Expiratory Volume (FEV1) % of predicted, atrial fibrillation, and prolonged QT time in ECG. The prediction accuracy of the model was 77%, sensitivity 0.30, specificity 0.95, positive predictive value 0.68, negative predictive value 0.78, and area under the ROC curve 0.69. While the sensitivity of the model reminded limited, good specificity, moderate accuracy, comparable or better performance in classification and better performance in variable selection and data usage in comparison to the logistic regression approaches, and positive and negative predictive values indicate that the model has potential in predicting mortality and very poor HRQoL in COPD patients. Conclusion: We developed a Bayesian prediction model which is potentially useful in predicting mortality and very poor HRQoL in patients with COPD.
  • Wickström, Jan-Erik; Virtanen, Juha; Aro, Ellinoora; Jalkanen, Juho; Venermo, Maarit; Hakovirta, Harri (2019)
    Objective: Based on our previous reports, ipsilateral systolic toe pressure (STP) and toe-brachial index (TBI) have a strong association with midterm cardiovascular and overall mortality as well as with amputation-free survival in patients with symptomatic lower extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). The effect of the often overlooked contralateral lower limb on patient outcome remains unknown. This study aimed to resolve the significance of contralateral STP (CL_STP) and contralateral TBI for long-term overall and cardiovascular mortality. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study of 727 consecutive patients with symptomatic lower extremity PAD. All patients admitted to the Department of Vascular Surgery at Turku University Hospital for digital subtraction angiography between January 2009 and August 2011 and for whom STP measurements were available were recruited and observed for up to 7 years. Dates and causes of death were collected from the national cause of death registry of Statistics Finland. Results: In the study cohort, STP was Conclusions: Low STP and TBI of both contralateral and ipsilateral lower extremities are associated with high cardiovascular and overall mortality in symptomatic PAD patients. Bilaterally low STP and TBI are associated with a particularly poor prognosis.
  • Wiersema, Renske; Eck, Ruben J; Haapio, Mikko; Koeze, Jacqueline; Poukkanen, Meri; Keus, Frederik; van der Horst, Iwan C C; Pettilä, Ville; Vaara, Suvi T (BioMed Central, 2019)
    Abstract Background Mortality rates associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) vary among critically ill patients. Outcomes are often not corrected for severity or duration of AKI. Our objective was to analyse whether a new variable, AKI burden, would outperform 1) presence of AKI, 2) highest AKI stage, or 3) AKI duration in predicting 90-day mortality. Methods Kidney Diseases: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria using creatinine, urine output and renal replacement therapy were used to diagnose AKI. AKI burden was defined as AKI stage multiplied with the number of days that each stage was present (maximum five), divided by the maximum possible score yielding a proportion. The AKI burden as a predictor of 90-day mortality was assessed in two independent cohorts (Finnish Acute Kidney Injury, FINNAKI and Simple Intensive Care Studies I, SICS-I) by comparing four multivariate logistic regression models that respectively incorporated either the presence of AKI, the highest AKI stage, the duration of AKI, or the AKI burden. Results In the FINNAKI cohort 1096 of 2809 patients (39%) had AKI and 90-day mortality of the cohort was 23%. Median AKI burden was 0.17 (IQR 0.07–0.50), 1.0 being the maximum. The model including AKI burden (area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) 0.78, 0.76–0.80) outperformed the models using AKI presence (AUROC 0.77, 0.75–0.79, p = 0.026) or AKI severity (AUROC 0.77, 0.75–0.79, p = 0.012), but not AKI duration (AUROC 0.77, 0.75–0.79, p = 0.06). In the SICS-I, 603 of 1075 patients (56%) had AKI and 90-day mortality was 28%. Median AKI burden was 0.19 (IQR 0.08–0.46). The model using AKI burden performed better (AUROC 0.77, 0.74–0.80) than the models using AKI presence (AUROC 0.75, 0.71–0.78, p = 0.001), AKI severity (AUROC 0.76, 0.72–0.79. p = 0.008) or AKI duration (AUROC 0.76, 0.73–0.79, p = 0.009). Conclusion AKI burden, which appreciates both severity and duration of AKI, was superior to using only presence or the highest stage of AKI in predicting 90-day mortality. Using AKI burden or other more granular methods may be helpful in future epidemiological studies of AKI.
  • Wiersema, Renske; Eck, Ruben J.; Haapio, Mikko; Koeze, Jacqueline; Poukkanen, Meri; Keus, Frederik; van der Horst, Iwan C. C.; Pettilä, Ville; Vaara, Suvi T. (2019)
    Background Mortality rates associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) vary among critically ill patients. Outcomes are often not corrected for severity or duration of AKI. Our objective was to analyse whether a new variable, AKI burden, would outperform 1) presence of AKI, 2) highest AKI stage, or 3) AKI duration in predicting 90-day mortality. Methods Kidney Diseases: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria using creatinine, urine output and renal replacement therapy were used to diagnose AKI. AKI burden was defined as AKI stage multiplied with the number of days that each stage was present (maximum five), divided by the maximum possible score yielding a proportion. The AKI burden as a predictor of 90-day mortality was assessed in two independent cohorts (Finnish Acute Kidney Injury, FINNAKI and Simple Intensive Care Studies I, SICS-I) by comparing four multivariate logistic regression models that respectively incorporated either the presence of AKI, the highest AKI stage, the duration of AKI, or the AKI burden. Results In the FINNAKI cohort 1096 of 2809 patients (39%) had AKI and 90-day mortality of the cohort was 23%. Median AKI burden was 0.17 (IQR 0.07-0.50), 1.0 being the maximum. The model including AKI burden (area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) 0.78, 0.76-0.80) outperformed the models using AKI presence (AUROC 0.77, 0.75-0.79, p = 0.026) or AKI severity (AUROC 0.77, 0.75-0.79, p = 0.012), but not AKI duration (AUROC 0.77, 0.75-0.79, p = 0.06). In the SICS-I, 603 of 1075 patients (56%) had AKI and 90-day mortality was 28%. Median AKI burden was 0.19 (IQR 0.08-0.46). The model using AKI burden performed better (AUROC 0.77, 0.74-0.80) than the models using AKI presence (AUROC 0.75, 0.71-0.78, p = 0.001), AKI severity (AUROC 0.76, 0.72-0.79. p = 0.008) or AKI duration (AUROC 0.76, 0.73-0.79, p = 0.009). Conclusion AKI burden, which appreciates both severity and duration of AKI, was superior to using only presence or the highest stage of AKI in predicting 90-day mortality. Using AKI burden or other more granular methods may be helpful in future epidemiological studies of AKI.
  • GBD 2015 Eastern Mediterranean Reg (2018)
    To estimate incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by cancer in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 2005 and 2015. Vital registration system and cancer registry data from the EMR region were analyzed for 29 cancer groups in 22 EMR countries using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 methodology. In 2015, cancer was responsible for 9.4% of all deaths and 5.1% of all DALYs. It accounted for 722,646 new cases, 379,093 deaths, and 11.7 million DALYs. Between 2005 and 2015, incident cases increased by 46%, deaths by 33%, and DALYs by 31%. The increase in cancer incidence was largely driven by population growth and population aging. Breast cancer, lung cancer, and leukemia were the most common cancers, while lung, breast, and stomach cancers caused most cancer deaths. Cancer is responsible for a substantial disease burden in the EMR, which is increasing. There is an urgent need to expand cancer prevention, screening, and awareness programs in EMR countries as well as to improve diagnosis, treatment, and palliative care services.
  • Endén, Kira; Tainio, Juuso; Nikkilä, Atte; Helanterä, Ilkka; Nordin, Arno; Pakarinen, Mikko P.; Jalanko, Hannu; Jahnukainen, Kirsi; Jahnukainen, Timo (2020)
    Background The prevalence of malignancies after pediatric solid organ transplantation was evaluated in a nationwide study. Methods All patients who had undergone kidney, liver, or heart transplantation during childhood between the years 1982 and 2015 in Finland were identified. The inclusion criteria were age under 16 years at transplantation and age over 18 years at the last follow-up day. A total of 233 (137 kidney, 53 liver, and 43 heart) transplant recipients were enrolled. Controls (n = 1157) matched by the year of birth, gender, and hometown were identified using the Population Register Center registry. The cancer diagnoses were searched using the Finnish Cancer Registry. Results Altogether 26 individuals diagnosed with cancer were found, including 18 transplant recipients. Cancer was diagnosed at a median of 12.0 (IQR 7.8-17.8) years after the transplantation. The transplant recipients' risk for cancer was significantly higher when compared with the controls (HR 14.7; 95% CI 6.4-33.9). There was no difference for different graft types. Sixty-one percent of cancers among the transplant recipients were diagnosed at age older than 18 years. Conclusion The risk for cancer is significantly higher among young adults having undergone solid organ transplantation during childhood in comparison with population controls. Careful follow-up and attention to prevent cancers throughout adulthood are warranted.