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  • Ning, Wenxin; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Norbäck Ivarsson, Lena; Jilbert, Thomas Stephen; Åkesson, Christine; Slomp, Caroline P.; Andren, Elinor; Broström, Anne; Filipsson, Helena L. (2018)
    Coastal environments have experienced large ecological changes as a result of human activities over the last 100-200 years. To understand the severity and potential consequences of such changes, paleoenvironmental records provide important contextual information. The Baltic Sea coastal zone is naturally a vulnerable system and subject to significant human-induced impacts. To put the recent environmental degradation in the Baltic coastal zone into a long-term perspective, and to assess the natural and anthropogenic drivers of environmental change, we present sedimentary records covering the last 1000 years obtained from a coastal inlet (Gasfjarden) and a nearby lake (Lake Storsjon) in Sweden. We investigate the links between a pollen-based land cover reconstruction from Lake Storsjon and paleoenvironmental variables from Gasfjarden itself, including diatom assemblages, organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) contents, stable C and N isotopic ratios, and biogenic silica contents. The Lake Storsjon record shows that regional land use was characterized by small-scale agricultural activity between 900 and 1400 CE, which slightly intensified between 1400 and 1800 CE. Substantial expansion of cropland was observed between 1800 and 1950 CE, before afforestation between 1950 and 2010 CE. From the Gasfjarden record, prior to 1800 CE, relatively minor changes in the diatom and geochemical proxies were found. The onset of cultural eutrophication in Gasfjarden can be traced to the 1800s and intensified land use is identified as the main driver. Anthropogenic activities in the 20th century have caused unprecedented ecosystem changes in the coastal inlet, as reflected in the diatom composition and geochemical proxies. (c) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
  • Linderholm, Hans W.; Nicolle, Marie; Francus, Pierre; Gajewski, Konrad; Helama, Samuli; Korhola, Atte; Solomina, Olga; Yu, Zicheng; Zhang, Peng; D'Andrea, William J.; Debret, Maxime; Divine, Dmitry V.; Gunnarson, Bjorn E.; Loader, Neil J.; Massei, Nicolas; Seftigen, Kristina; Thomas, Elizabeth K.; Werner, Johannes; Andersson, Sofia; Berntsson, Annika; Luoto, Tomi P.; Nevalainen, Liisa; Saarni, Saija; Valiranta, Minna (2018)
    Reanalysis data show an increasing trend in Arctic precipitation over the 20th century, but changes are not homogenous across seasons or space. The observed hydro-climate changes are expected to continue and possibly accelerate in the coming century, not only affecting pan-Arctic natural ecosystems and human activities, but also lower latitudes through the atmospheric and ocean circulations. However, a lack of spatiotemporal observational data makes reliable quantification of Arctic hydroclimate change difficult, especially in a long-term context. To understand Arctic hydroclimate and its variability prior to the instrumental record, climate proxy records are needed. The purpose of this review is to summarise the current understanding of Arctic hydroclimate during the past 2000 years. First, the paper reviews the main natural archives and proxies used to infer past hydroclimate variations in this remote region and outlines the difficulty of disentangling the moisture from the temperature signal in these records. Second, a comparison of two sets of hydroclimate records covering the Common Era from two data-rich regions, North America and Fennoscandia, reveals inter- and intra-regional differences. Third, building on earlier work, this paper shows the potential for providing a high-resolution hydroclimate reconstruction for the Arctic and a comparison with last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models. In general, hydroclimate proxies and simulations indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly tends to have been wetter than the Little Ice Age (LIA), but there are large regional differences. However, the regional coverage of the proxy data is inadequate, with distinct data gaps in most of Eurasia and parts of North America, making robust assessments for the whole Arctic impossible at present. To fully assess pan-Arctic hydroclimate variability for the last 2 millennia, additional proxy records are required.
  • Pöysa, Hannu; Vaananen, Veli-Matti (2018)
    The proportion of first-year birds in annual wing samples provided by hunters has been used as a measure of breeding success in waterfowl. The proportion of first-year birds in the wing samples of Eurasian wigeon (Mareca penelope) from Denmark and the UK shows a long-term decline, probably reflecting a decrease in breeding success. However, previous studies report conflicting results in the relationship between variation in the proportion of first-year birds and variation in climatic conditions. We used wing data of hunter-shot Eurasian wigeon from Finland to study whether the proportion of first-year birds shows a similar long-term decline and whether between-year variation in the proportion of young is associated with variation in climatic conditions. We found a long-term decline in the proportion of first-year birds. The proportion of young also varied considerably between years, but this variation was not associated with weather or the climatic variables considered for the breeding and wintering periods. More research is needed concerning factors that affect long-term changes and annual variation in the proportion of young in the hunting bag and on the suitability of this index to measure productivity in ducks.
  • Teerikorpi, Pauliina Elisabet; Sirkiä, Paivi Maria; Laaksonen, Toni (2018)
    Environmental shifts may induce sudden reversals in the relative quality or sexual attractiveness of mates (ecological crossovers) leading to non-directional sexual selection. Studies on such ecological crossovers induced by environmental shifts during the nonbreeding season are particularly rare. We studied the interactive effects between nonbreeding conditions and a male white wing patch on the breeding success of breeding pairs and the local survival of females in a migratory passerine population over a 32-year period. After dry winters, females paired with large-patched males were more likely to survive than those paired with small-patched males, and vice versa after moist winters. Moreover, after dry winters, large-patched males succeeded in attracting females that laid large clutches, while small-patched males bred with females that laid small clutches, and vice versa after moist winters. This phenomenon led to a difference in fledgling numbers only during years with dry winters and high precipitation during the breeding season. The selection on this male trait and its signaling value to females thus depended on a complex interaction between conditions both at the nonbreeding and breeding grounds. We show that it is important to consider conditions during the nonbreeding season when examining the effects of sexual ornaments on fitness.
  • Hampton, Stephanie E.; Galloway, Aaron W. E.; Powers, Stephen M.; Ozersky, Ted; Woo, Kara H.; Batt, Ryan D.; Labou, Stephanie G.; O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Sharma, Sapna; Lottig, Noah R.; Stanley, Emily H.; North, Rebecca L.; Stockwell, Jason D.; Adrian, Rita; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Arvola, Lauri; Baulch, Helen M.; Bertani, Isabella; Bowman, Larry L.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Catalan, Jordi; Colom-Montero, William; Domine, Leah M.; Felip, Marisol; Granados, Ignacio; Gries, Corinna; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Haberman, Juta; Haldna, Marina; Hayden, Brian; Higgins, Scott N.; Jolley, Jeff C.; Kahilainen, Kimmo K.; Kaup, Enn; Kehoe, Michael J.; MacIntyre, Sally; Mackay, Anson W.; Mariash, Heather L.; Mckay, Robert M.; Nixdorf, Brigitte; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; Palmer, Michelle; Pierson, Don C.; Post, David M.; Pruett, Matthew J.; Rautio, Milla; Read, Jordan S.; Roberts, Sarah L.; Ruecker, Jacqueline; Sadro, Steven; Silow, Eugene A.; Smith, Derek E.; Sterner, Robert W.; Swann, George E. A.; Timofeyev, Maxim A.; Toro, Manuel; Twiss, Michael R.; Vogt, Richard J.; Watson, Susan B.; Whiteford, Erika J.; Xenopoulos, Marguerite A. (2017)
    Winter conditions are rapidly changing in temperate ecosystems, particularly for those that experience periods of snow and ice cover. Relatively little is known of winter ecology in these systems, due to a historical research focus on summer 'growing seasons'. We executed the first global quantitative synthesis on under-ice lake ecology, including 36 abiotic and biotic variables from 42 research groups and 101 lakes, examining seasonal differences and connections as well as how seasonal differences vary with geophysical factors. Plankton were more abundant under ice than expected; mean winter values were 43.2% of summer values for chlorophyll a, 15.8% of summer phytoplankton biovolume and 25.3% of summer zooplankton density. Dissolved nitrogen concentrations were typically higher during winter, and these differences were exaggerated in smaller lakes. Lake size also influenced winter-summer patterns for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), with higher winter DOC in smaller lakes. At coarse levels of taxonomic aggregation, phytoplankton and zooplankton community composition showed few systematic differences between seasons, although literature suggests that seasonal differences are frequently lake-specific, species-specific, or occur at the level of functional group. Within the subset of lakes that had longer time series, winter influenced the subsequent summer for some nutrient variables and zooplankton biomass.
  • Tammeorg, Olga; Haldna, Marina; Noges, Peeter; Appleby, Peter; Mols, Tonu; Niemisto, Juha; Tammeorg, Priit; Horppila, Jukka (2018)
    Phosphorus retention (TPacc) is one of the major water quality regulators in lakes. The current study aimed at ascertaining the specific lake characteristics regulating TPacc. Moreover, we were interested whether NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), a proxy of climatic forcing, can explain variability in TPacc, additionally to that ascribed to lake characteristics. Sediment cores were obtained from 21 Finnish lakes, subject to radiometric dating and measurements of TP concentrations. Principal components (PCs) were generated using lake characteristics that are usually included into the modelling of TPacc (e.g. lake area, lake depth, catchment area, P inflow) but also the parameters that the classical models usually missed (e.g. anoxic factor). We used significant principal components (PCs), specific combinations of lake characteristics and monthly NAO values as predictors of TPacc. Lake characteristics explained the bulk of TPacc variability. The most influential factors (positive drivers) behind TPacc included PC1 (representing mainly deep lakes), PC2 (small lakes with high levels of anoxia and water column stability), PC3 (productive lakes with large catchment area and short water residence time), PC4 (lakes with high water column stability, low anoxic factor and relatively high sediment focusing) and PC5 (lakes with high levels of P inflow, anoxia and long water residence time). Additionally, we found a potential negative effect of NAO in October on the annual TPacc. This NAO was significantly positively related to temperatures in surface and near-bottom water layer (also their difference) in autumn, suggesting the possible implications for the internal P dynamics. Increased mineralization of organic matter is the most likely explanation for the reduced TPacc associated with NAO-driven water temperature increase. The analysis presented here contributes to the knowledge of the factors controlling P retention. Moreover, this spatially and temporally comprehensive sediment data can potentially be a valuable source for modelling climate change implications.
  • de Jesus, Alma Lorelei; Thompson, Helen; Knibbs, Luke D.; Kowalski, Michal; Cyrys, Josef; Niemi, Jarkko V.; Kousa, Anu; Timonen, Hilkka; Luoma, Krista; Petäjä, Tuukka; Beddows, David; Harrison, Roy M.; Hopke, Philip; Morawska, Lidia (2020)
    Urbanisation and industrialisation led to the increase of ambient particulate matter (PM) concentration. While subsequent regulations may have resulted in the decrease of some PM matrices, the simultaneous changes in climate affecting local meteorological conditions could also have played a role. To gain an insight into this complex matter, this study investigated the long-term trends of two important matrices, the particle mass (PM2.5) and particle number concentrations (PNC), and the factors that influenced the trends. Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, the generalised additive model, seasonal decomposition of time series by LOESS (locally estimated scatterplot smoothing) and the Buishand range test were applied. Both PM2.5 and PNC showed significant negative monotonic trends (0.03-0.6 mg m(-3).yr(-1) and 0.40-3.8 x 10(3) particles. cm(-3). yr(-1), respectively) except Brisbane (+0.1 mg m(-3). yr(-1) and +53 particles. cm(-3). yr(-1), respectively). For the period covered in this study, temperature increased (0.03-0.07 degrees C.yr(-1)) in all cities except London; precipitation decreased (0.02-1.4 mm.yr(-1)) except in Helsinki; and wind speed was reduced in Brisbane and Rochester but increased in Helsinki, London and Augsburg. At the change-points, temperature increase in cold cities influenced PNC while shifts in precipitation and wind speed affected PM2.5. Based on the LOESS trend, extreme events such as dust storms and wildfires resulting from changing climates caused a positive step-change in concentrations, particularly for PM2.5. In contrast, among the mitigation measures, controlling sulphur in fuels caused a negative step-change, especially for PNC. Policies regarding traffic and fleet management (e.g. low emission zones) that were implemented only in certain areas or in a progressive uptake (e.g. Euro emission standards), resulted to gradual reductions in concentrations. Therefore, as this study has clearly shown that PM2.5 and PNC were influenced differently by the impacts of the changing climate and by the mitigation measures, both metrics must be considered in urban air quality management. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
  • Forsius, M.; Saloranta, T.; Arvola, L.; Salo, S.; Verta, M.; Ala-Opas, P.; Rask, M.; Vuorenmaa, J. (2010)
  • Omstedt, A.; Elken, J.; Lehmann, A.; Lepparanta, M.; Meier, H. E. M.; Myrberg, K.; Rutgersson, A. (2014)
    We review progress in Baltic Sea physical oceanography (including sea ice and atmosphere-land interactions) and Baltic Sea modelling, focusing on research related to BALTEX Phase II and other relevant work during the 2003-2014 period. The major advances achieved in this period are: Meteorological databases are now available to the research community, partly as station data, with a growing number of freely available gridded datasets on decadal and centennial time scales. The free availability of meteorological datasets supports the development of more accurate forcing functions for Baltic Sea models. In the last decade, oceanographic data have become much more accessible and new important measurement platforms, such as FerryBoxes and satellites, have provided better temporally and spatially resolved observations. Our understanding of how large-scale atmospheric circulation affects the Baltic Sea climate, particularly in winter, has improved. Internal variability is strong illustrating the dominant stochastic behaviour of the atmosphere. The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are better understood. The importance of surface waves in air-sea interaction is better understood, and Stokes drift and Langmuir circulation have been identified as likely playing an important role in surface water mixing in sea water. We better understand sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the coastal zone where sea ice interaction between land and sea is crucial. The Baltic Sea's various straits and sills are of increasing interest in seeking to understand water exchange and mixing. There has been increased research into the Baltic Sea coastal zone, particularly into upwelling, in the past decade. Modelling of the Baltic Sea-North Sea system, including the development of coupled land-sea-atmosphere models, has improved. Despite marked progress in Baltic Sea research over the last decade, several gaps remain in our knowledge and understanding. The current understanding of salinity changes is limited, and future projections of salinity evolution are uncertain. In addition, modelling of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric climate models is severely biased. More detailed investigations of regional precipitation and evaporation patterns (including runoff), atmospheric variability, highly saline water inflows, exchange between sub-basins, circulation, and especially turbulent mixing are still needed. Furthermore, more highly resolved oceanographic models are necessary. In addition, models that incorporate more advanced carbon cycle and ecosystem descriptions and improved description of water-sediment interactions are needed. There is also a need for new climate projections and simulations with improved atmospheric and oceanographic coupled model systems. These and other research challenges are addressed by the recently formed Baltic Earth research programme, the successor of the BALTEX programme, which ended in 2013. Baltic Earth will treat anthropogenic changes and impacts together with their natural drivers. Baltic Earth will serve as a network for earth system sciences in the region, following in the BALTEX tradition but in a wider context. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Kämäräinen, Matti; Uotila, Petteri; Karpechko, Alexey; Hyvärinen, Otto; Lehtonen, Ilari; Räisänen, Jouni (2019)
    A statistical learning approach to produce seasonal temperature forecasts in western Europe and Scandinavia was implemented and tested. The leading principal components (PCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) and the geopotential at the 150-hPa level (GPT) were derived from reanalysis datasets and used at different lags (from one to five seasons) as predictors. Random sampling of both the fitting years and the potential predictors together with the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression (LASSO) was used to create a large ensemble of statistical models. Applying the models to independent test years shows that the ensemble performs well over the target areas and that the ensemble mean is more accurate than the best individual ensemble member on average. Skillful results were especially found for summer and fall, with the anomaly correlation coefficient values ranging between 0.41 and 0.68 for these seasons. The correct simulation of decadal trends, using sufficiently long time series for fitting (70 years), and the use of lagged predictors increased the prediction skill. The decadal-scale variability of SST, most importantly the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and different PCs of GPT are the most important individual predictors among all predictors. Both SST and GPT bring equally much predictive power, although their importance is different in different seasons.