Browsing by Subject "PARAMETERIZATION"

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  • Fiedler, Stephanie; Kinne, Stefan; Huang, Wan Ting Katty; Räisänen, Petri; O'Donnell, Declan; Bellouin, Nicolas; Stier, Philip; Merikanto, Joonas; van Noije, Twan; Makkonen, Risto; Lohmann, Ulrike (2019)
    This study assesses the change in anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Both decades had similar global-mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depths but substantially different global distributions. For both years, we quantify (i) the forcing spread due to model-internal variability and (ii) the forcing spread among models. Our assessment is based on new ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with five state-of-the-art Earth system models. Four of these models will be used in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016). Here, the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol has been reduced in the participating models. In all our simulations, we prescribe the same patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud droplet number concentration. We calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF). Their difference defines the net contribution from rapid adjustments. Our simulations show a model spread in ERF from -0.4 to -0.9 W m(-2). The standard deviation in annual ERF is 0.3 W m(-2), based on 180 individual estimates from each participating model. This result implies that identifying the model spread in ERF due to systematic differences requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of years. Moreover, we find almost identical ERFs for the mid-1970s and mid-2000s for individual models, although there are major model differences in natural aerosols and clouds. The model-ensemble mean ERF is -0.54 W m(-2) for the pre-industrial era to the mid-1970s and -0.59 W m(-2) for the pre-industrial era to the mid-2000s. Our result suggests that comparing ERF changes between two observable periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to a poorly constrained pre-industrial state might provide a better test for a model's ability to represent transient climate changes.
  • Zsebeházi, Gabriella; Mahó, Sándor István (2021)
    Land surface models with detailed urban parameterization schemes provide adequate tools to estimate the impact of climate change in cities, because they rely on the results of the regional climate model, while operating on km scale at low cost. In this paper, the SURFEX land surface model driven by the evaluation and control runs of ALADIN-Climate regional climate model is validated over Budapest from the aspect of urban impact on temperature. First, surface temperature of SURFEX with forcings from ERA-Interim driven ALADIN-Climate was compared against the MODIS land surface temperature for a 3-year period. Second, the impact of the ARPEGE global climate model driven ALADIN-Climate was assessed on the 2 m temperature of SURFEX and was validated against measurements of a suburban station for 30 years. The spatial extent of surface urban heat island (SUHI) is exaggerated in SURFEX from spring to autumn, because the urbanized gridcells are generally warmer than their rural vicinity, while the observed SUHI extent is more variable. The model reasonably simulates the seasonal means and diurnal cycle of the 2 m temperature in the suburban gridpoint, except summer when strong positive bias occurs. However, comparing the two experiments from the aspect of nocturnal UHI, only minor differences arose. The thorough validation underpins the applicability of SURFEX driven by ALADIN-Climate for future urban climate projections.
  • Sporre, Moa K.; Blichner, Sara M.; Karset, Inger H. H.; Makkonen, Risto; Berntsen, Terje K. (2019)
    Both higher temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations are (separately) expected to increase the emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). This has been proposed to initiate negative climate feedback mechanisms through increased formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). More SOA can make the clouds more reflective, which can provide a cooling. Furthermore, the increase in SOA formation has also been proposed to lead to increased aerosol scattering, resulting in an increase in diffuse radiation. This could boost gross primary production (GPP) and further increase BVOC emissions. In this study, we have used the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) to investigate both these feedback mechanisms. Three sets of experiments were set up to quantify the feedback with respect to (1) doubling the CO2, (2) increasing temperatures corresponding to a doubling of CO2 and (3) the combined effect of both doubling CO2 and a warmer climate. For each of these experiments, we ran two simulations, with identical setups, except for the BVOC emissions. One simulation was run with interactive BVOC emissions, allowing the BVOC emissions to respond to changes in CO2 and/or climate. In the other simulation, the BVOC emissions were fixed at present-day conditions, essentially turning the feedback off. The comparison of these two simulations enables us to investigate each step along the feedback as well as estimate their overall relevance for the future climate. We find that the BVOC feedback can have a significant impact on the climate. The annual global BVOC emissions are up to 63 % higher when the feedback is turned on compared to when the feedback is turned off, with the largest response when both CO2 and climate are changed. The higher BVOC levels lead to the formation of more SOA mass (max 53 %) and result in more particles through increased new particle formation as well as larger particles through increased condensation. The corresponding changes in the cloud properties lead to a -0.43 W m(-2) stronger net cloud forcing. This effect becomes about 50 % stronger when the model is run with reduced anthropogenic aerosol emissions, indicating that the feedback will become even more important as we decrease aerosol and precursor emissions. We do not find a boost in GPP due to increased aerosol scattering on a global scale. Instead, the fate of the GPP seems to be controlled by the BVOC effects on the clouds. However, the higher aerosol scattering associated with the higher BVOC emissions is found to also contribute with a potentially important enhanced negative direct forcing (-0.06 W m(-2)). The global total aerosol forcing associated with the feedback is -0.49 W m(-2), indicating that it has the potential to offset about 13 % of the forcing associated with a doubling of CO2.
  • Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria; Nenes, Athanasios; Bauer, Susanne E.; Bergman, Tommi; Carslaw, Ken S.; Grini, Alf; Hamilton, Douglas S.; Johnson, Jill S.; Karydis, Vlassis A.; Kirkevag, Alf; Kodros, John K.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Luo, Gan; Makkonen, Risto; Matsui, Hitoshi; Neubauer, David; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Schmale, Julia; Stier, Philip; Tsigaridis, Kostas; van Noije, Twan; Wang, Hailong; Watson-Parris, Duncan; Westervelt, Daniel M.; Yang, Yang; Yoshioka, Masaru; Daskalakis, Nikos; Decesari, Stefano; Gysel-Beer, Martin; Kalivitis, Nikos; Liu, Xiaohong; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Schrodner, Roland; Sfakianaki, Maria; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P.; Wu, Mingxuan; Yu, Fangqun (2019)
    A total of 16 global chemistry transport models and general circulation models have participated in this study; 14 models have been evaluated with regard to their ability to reproduce the near-surface observed number concentration of aerosol particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), as well as derived cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Model results for the period 2011-2015 are compared with aerosol measurements (aerosol particle number, CCN and aerosol particle composition in the submicron fraction) from nine surface stations located in Europe and Japan. The evaluation focuses on the ability of models to simulate the average across time state in diverse environments and on the seasonal and short-term variability in the aerosol properties. There is no single model that systematically performs best across all environments represented by the observations. Models tend to underestimate the observed aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, with average normalized mean bias (NMB) of all models and for all stations, where data are available, of -24 % and -35 % for particles with dry diameters > 50 and > 120 nm, as well as -36 % and -34 % for CCN at supersaturations of 0.2 % and 1.0 %, respectively. However, they seem to behave differently for particles activating at very low supersaturations (<0.1 %) than at higher ones. A total of 15 models have been used to produce ensemble annual median distributions of relevant parameters. The model diversity (defined as the ratio of standard deviation to mean) is up to about 3 for simulated N-3 (number concentration of particles with dry diameters larger than 3 nm) and up to about 1 for simulated CCN in the extra-polar regions. A global mean reduction of a factor of about 2 is found in the model diversity for CCN at a supersaturation of 0.2 % (CCN0.2) compared to that for N-3, maximizing over regions where new particle formation is important. An additional model has been used to investigate potential causes of model diversity in CCN and bias compared to the observations by performing a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) accounting for uncertainties in 26 aerosol-related model input parameters. This PPE suggests that biogenic secondary organic aerosol formation and the hygroscopic properties of the organic material are likely to be the major sources of CCN uncertainty in summer, with dry deposition and cloud processing being dominant in winter. Models capture the relative amplitude of the seasonal variability of the aerosol particle number concentration for all studied particle sizes with available observations (dry diameters larger than 50, 80 and 120 nm). The short-term persistence time (on the order of a few days) of CCN concentrations, which is a measure of aerosol dynamic behavior in the models, is underestimated on average by the models by 40 % during winter and 20 % in summer. In contrast to the large spread in simulated aerosol particle and CCN number concentrations, the CDNC derived from simulated CCN spectra is less diverse and in better agreement with CDNC estimates consistently derived from the observations (average NMB -13 % and -22 % for updraft velocities 0.3 and 0.6 m s(-1), respectively). In addition, simulated CDNC is in slightly better agreement with observationally derived values at lower than at higher updraft velocities (index of agreement 0.64 vs. 0.65). The reduced spread of CDNC compared to that of CCN is attributed to the sublinear response of CDNC to aerosol particle number variations and the negative correlation between the sensitivities of CDNC to aerosol particle number concentration (partial derivative N-d/partial derivative N-a) and to updraft velocity (partial derivative N-d/partial derivative w). Overall, we find that while CCN is controlled by both aerosol particle number and composition, CDNC is sensitive to CCN at low and moderate CCN concentrations and to the updraft velocity when CCN levels are high. Discrepancies are found in sensitivities partial derivative N-d/partial derivative N-a and partial derivative N-d/partial derivative w; models may be predisposed to be too "aerosol sensitive" or "aerosol insensitive" in aerosol-cloud-climate interaction studies, even if they may capture average droplet numbers well. This is a subtle but profound finding that only the sensitivities can clearly reveal and may explain intermodel biases on the aerosol indirect effect.
  • Stepanenko, Viktor; Mammarella, Ivan; Ojala, Anne Kristiina; Miettinen, Heli Marjaana; Lykosov, V.N.; Vesala, Timo Veikko (2016)
    A one-dimensional (1-D) model for an enclosed basin (lake) is presented, which reproduces temperature, horizontal velocities, oxygen, carbon dioxide and methane in the basin. All prognostic variables are treated in a unified manner via a generic 1-D transport equation for horizontally averaged property. A water body interacts with underlying sediments. These sediments are represented by a set of vertical columns with heat, moisture and CH4 transport inside. The model is validated vs. a comprehensive observational data set gathered at Kuivajarvi Lake (southern Finland), demonstrating a fair agreement. The value of a key calibration constant, regulating the magnitude of methane production in sediments, corresponded well to that obtained from another two lakes. We demonstrated via surface seiche parameterization that the near-bottom turbulence induced by surface seiches is likely to significantly affect CH4 accumulation there. Furthermore, our results suggest that a gas transfer through thermocline under intense internal seiche motions is a bottleneck in quantifying greenhouse gas dynamics in dimictic lakes, which calls for further research.
  • Potes, M.; Salgado, R.; Costa, M. J.; Morais, M.; Bortoli, D.; Kostadinov, I.; Mammarella, I. (2017)
    The study of lake-atmosphere interactions was the main purpose of a 2014 summer experiment at Alqueva reservoir in Portugal. Near-surface fluxes of momentum, heat and mass [water vapour (H2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2)] were obtained with the new Campbell Scientific's IRGASON Integrated Open-Path CO2/H2O Gas Analyser and 3D Sonic Anemometer between 2 June and 2 October. On average, the reservoir was releasing energy in the form of sensible and latent heat flux during the study period. At the end of the 75 d, the total evaporation was estimated as 490.26 mm. A high correlation was found between the latent heat flux and the wind speed (R = 0.97). The temperature gradient between air and water was positive between 12 and 21 UTC, causing a negative sensible heat flux, and negative during the rest of the day, triggering a positive sensible heat flux. The reservoir acted as a sink of atmospheric CO2 with an average rate of -0.026 mg m(-2) s(-1). However, at a daily scale we found an unexpected uptake between 0 and 9 UTC and almost null flux between 13 and 19 UTC. Potential reasons for this result are further discussed. The net radiation was recorded for the same period and water column heat storage was estimated using water temperature profiles. The energy balance closure for the analysed period was 81%. In-water solar spectral downwelling irradiance profiles were measured with a new device allowing measurements independent of the solar zenith angle, which enabled the computation of the attenuation coefficient of light in the water column. The average attenuation coefficient for the photosynthetically active radiation spectral region varied from 0.849 +/- 0.025 m(-1) on 30 July to 1.459 +/- 0.007 m(-1) on 25 September.
  • Kneifel, Stefan; Moisseev, Dmitri (2020)
    Riming is an efficient process of converting liquid cloud water into ice and plays an important role in the formation of precipitation in cold clouds. Due to the rapid increase in ice particle mass, riming enhances the particle's terminal velocity, which can be detected by ground-based vertically pointing cloud radars if the effect of vertical air motions can be sufficiently mitigated. In our study, we first revisit a previously published approach to relate the radar mean Doppler velocity (MDV) to rime mass fraction (FR) using a large ground-based in situ dataset. This relation is then applied to multiyear datasets of cloud radar observations collected at four European sites covering polluted central European, clean maritime, and Arctic climatic conditions. We find that riming occurs in 1%-8% of the nonconvective ice containing clouds with median FR between 0.5 and 0.6. Both the frequency of riming and FR reveal relatively small variations for different seasons. In contrast to previous studies, which suggested enhanced riming for clean environments, our statistics indicate the opposite; however, the differences between the locations are overall small. We find a very strong relation between the frequency of riming and temperature. While riming is rare at temperatures lower than -12 degrees C, it strongly increases toward 0 degrees C. Previous studies found a very similar temperature dependence for the amount and droplet size of supercooled liquid water, which might be closely connected to the riming signature found in this study. In contrast to riming frequency, we find almost no temperature dependence for FR.
  • Murtola, Tiina; Aalto, Atte; Malinen, Jarmo; Aalto, Daniel; Vainio, Martti (2018)
    During voiced speech, vocal folds interact with the vocal tract acoustics. The resulting glottal source-resonator coupling has been observed using mathematical and physical models as well as in in vivo phonation. We propose a computational time-domain model of the full speech apparatus that contains a feedback mechanism from the vocal tract acoustics to the vocal fold oscillations. It is based on numerical solution of ordinary and partial differential equations defined on vocal tract geometries that have been obtained by magnetic resonance imaging. The model is used to simulate rising and falling pitch glides of [alpha, i] in the fundamental frequency (f(o)) interval [145 Hz, 315 Hz]. The interval contains the first vocal tract resonance f(R1) and the first formant F-1 of [i] as well as the fractions of the first resonance f(R1)/5, f(R1)/4, and f(R1)/3 of [alpha]. The glide simulations reveal a locking pattern in the f(o) trajectory approximately at f(R1) of [i]. The resonance fractions of [alpha] produce perturbations in the pressure signal at the lips but no locking.
  • Mota-Santiago, P.; Vazquez, H.; Bierschenk, T.; Kremer, F.; Nadzri, A.; Schauries, D.; Djurabekova, F.; Nordlund, K.; Trautmann, C.; Mudie, S.; Ridgway, M. C.; Kluth, P. (2018)
    The cylindrical nanoscale density variations resulting from the interaction of 185 MeV and 2.2 GeV Au ions with 1.0 mu m thick amorphous SiNx:H and SiOx:H layers are determined using small angle x-ray scattering measurements. The resulting density profiles resembles an under-dense core surrounded by an over-dense shell with a smooth transition between the two regions, consistent with molecular-dynamics simulations. For amorphous SiNx:H, the density variations show a radius of 4.2 nm with a relative density change three times larger than the value determined for amorphous SiOx:H, with a radius of 5.5 nm. Complementary infrared spectroscopy measurements exhibit a damage cross-section comparable to the core dimensions. The morphology of the density variations results from freezing in the local viscous flow arising from the non-uniform temperature profile in the radial direction of the ion path. The concomitant drop in viscosity mediated by the thermal conductivity appears to be the main driving force rather than the presence of a density anomaly.
  • Yang, Yu; Leppäranta, Matti; Cheng, Bin; Li, Zhijun (2012)
  • Laban, Tracey Leah; Van Zyl, Pieter Gideon; Beukes, Johan Paul; Mikkonen, Santtu; Santana, Leonard; Josipovic, Miroslav; Vakkari, Ville; Thompson, Anne M.; Kulmala, Markku; Laakso, Lauri (2020)
    Statistical relationships between surface ozone (O-3) concentration, precursor species and meteorological conditions in continental South Africa were examined from data obtained from measurement stations in north-eastern South Africa. Three multivariate statistical methods were applied in the investigation, i.e. multiple linear regression (MLR), principal component analysis (PCA) and -regression (PCR), and generalised additive model (GAM) analysis. The daily maximum 8-h moving average O-3 concentrations were considered in these statistical models (dependent variable). MLR models indicated that meteorology and precursor species concentrations are able to explain similar to 50% of the variability in daily maximum O-3 levels. MLR analysis revealed that atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO), temperature and relative humidity were the strongest factors affecting the daily O-3 variability. In summer, daily O-3 variances were mostly associated with relative humidity, while winter O-3 levels were mostly linked to temperature and CO. PCA indicated that CO, temperature and relative humidity were not strongly collinear. GAM also identified CO, temperature and relative humidity as the strongest factors affecting the daily variation of O-3. Partial residual plots found that temperature, radiation and nitrogen oxides most likely have a non-linear relationship with O-3,while the relationship with relative humidity and CO is probably linear. An inter-comparison between O-3 levels modelled with the three statistical models compared to measured O-3 concentrations showed that the GAM model offered a slight improvement over the MLR model. These findings emphasise the critical role of regional-scale O-3 precursors coupled with meteorological conditions in daily variances of O-3 levels in continental South Africa.
  • Rontu, Laura; Gleeson, Emily; Räisänen, Petri; Nielsen, Kristian Pagh; Savijärvi, Hannu; Sass, Bent Hansen (2017)
    This paper provides an overview of the HLRADIA shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) broadband radiation schemes used in the HIRLAM numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and available in the HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale NWP model. The advantage of broadband, over spectral, schemes is that they can be called more frequently within the model, without compromising on computational efficiency. In mesoscale models fast interactions between clouds and radiation and the surface and radiation can be of greater importance than accounting for the spectral details of clear-sky radiation; thus calling the routines more frequently can be of greater benefit than the deterioration due to loss of spectral details. Fast but physically based radiation parametrizations are expected to be valuable for high-resolution ensemble forecasting, because as well as the speed of their execution, they may provide realistic physical perturbations. Results from single-column diagnostic experiments based on CIRC benchmark cases and an evaluation of 10 years of radiation output from the FMI operational archive of HIRLAM forecasts indicate that HLRADIA performs sufficiently well with respect to the clear-sky downwelling SW and longwave LWfluxes at the surface. In general, HLRADIA tends to overestimate surface fluxes, with the exception of LW fluxes under cold and dry conditions. The most obvious overestimation of the surface SW flux was seen in the cloudy cases in the 10-year comparison; this bias may be related to using a cloud inhomogeneity correction, which was too large. According to the CIRC comparisons, the outgoing LW and SW fluxes at the top of atmosphere are mostly overestimated by HLRADIA and the net LW flux is underestimated above clouds. The absorption of SW radiation by the atmosphere seems to be underestimated and LW absorption seems to be overestimated. Despite these issues, the overall results are satisfying and work on the improvement of HLRADIA for the use in HARMONIE-AROME NWP system is ongoing. In a HARMONIE-AROME 3-D forecast experiment we have shown that the frequency of the call for the radiation parametrization and choice of the parametrization scheme makes a difference to the surface radiation fluxes and changes the spatial distribution of the vertically integrated cloud cover and precipitation.