Browsing by Subject "PROJECTIONS"

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  • Orponen, Tuomas (2018)
    A Borel set B<subset of>Rn is visible from xRn, if the radial projection of B with base point x has positive Hn-1 measure. I prove that if dimB>n-1, then B is visible from every point xRn\E, where E is an exceptional set with dimension dimE2(n-1)-dimB. This is the sharp bound for all n2. Many parts of the proof were already contained in a recent previous paper by P. Mattila and the author, where a weaker bound for dimE was derived as a corollary from a certain slicing theorem. Here, no improvement to the slicing result is obtained; in brief, the main observation of the present paper is that the proof method gives the optimal result, when applied directly to the visibility problem.
  • Huttunen, Inese; Hyytiäinen, Kari; Huttunen, Markus; Sihvonen, Matti; Veijalainen, Noora; Korppoo, Marie; Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina (2021)
    This paper introduces a framework for extending global climate and socioeconomic scenarios in order to study agricultural nutrient pollution on an individual catchment scale. Our framework builds on and extends Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) at the spatial and temporal scales that are relevant for the drivers of animal husbandry, manure recycling and the application of inorganic fertilisers in crop production. Our case study area is the Aura river catchment in South-West Finland, which discharges into the heavily eutrophic Baltic Sea. The Aura river catchment has intensive agriculture - both livestock and crop production. Locally adjusted and interpreted climate and socioeconomic scenarios were used as inputs to a field-level economic optimisation in order to study how farmers might react to the changing markets and climate conditions under different SSPs. The results on economically optimal fertilisation levels were then used as inputs to the spatially and temporally explicit nutrient loading model (VEMALA). Alternative manure recycling strategies that matched with SSP narratives were studied as means to reduce the phosphorus (P) overfertilisation in areas with high livestock density. According to our simulations, on average the P loads increased by 18% during 2071-2100 from the current level and the variation in P loads between scenarios was large (from & minus;14% to +50%). By contrast, the nitrogen (N) loads had decreased on average by & minus;9% (with variation from & minus;20% to +3%) by the end of the current century. Phosphorus loading was most sensitive to manure recycling strategies and the speed of climate change. Nitrogen loading was less sensitive to changes in climate and socioeconomic drivers. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Lehtinen, Aki (2018)
    Derivational robustness may increase the degree to which various pieces of evidence indirectly confirm a robust result. There are two ways in which this increase may come about. First, if one can show that a result is robust, and that the various individual models used to derive it also have other confirmed results, these other results may indirectly confirm the robust result. Confirmation derives from the fact that data not known to bear on a result are shown to be relevant when it is shown to be robust. Second, robustness may increase the degree to which the robust result is indirectly confirmed if it increases the weight with which existing evidence indirectly confirms it. This may happen when it strengthens the connection between the core and the robust result by showing that auxiliaries are not responsible for the result.
  • Hurmekoski, Elias; Jonsson, Ragnar; Korhonen, Jaana; Jänis, Janne; Mäkinen, Marko; Leskinen, Pekka; Hetemäki, Lauri (2018)
    This study identifies new wood-based products with considerable potential and attractive markets, including textiles, liquid biofuels, platform chemicals, plastics, and packaging. We apply a mixed-methods review to examine how the position of the forest industry in a given value chain determines the respective production value. An assessment is provided as to the degree to which these emerging wood-based products could compensate for the foreseen decline of graphic paper markets in four major forest industry countries: USA, Canada, Sweden, and Finland. A 1%-2% market share in selected global markets implies a potential increase in revenues of 18-75 billion euros per annum in the four selected countries by 2030. This corresponds to 10%-43% of the production value of forest industries in 2016 and compares with a projected decline of graphic paper industry revenue of 5.5 billion euros by 2030. The respective impacts on wood use are manifold, as many of the new products utilize by-products as feedstock. The increase in primary wood use, which is almost entirely attributed to construction and to some extent textiles markets, would be in the range of 15-133 million m(3), corresponding to 2%-21% of the current industrial roundwood use in the selected countries.
  • Mauri, Achille; Girardello, Marco; Strona, Giovanni; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Forzieri, Giovanni; Caudullo, Giovanni; Manca, Federica; Cescatti, Alessandro (2022)
    We present "EU-Trees4F", a dataset of current and future potential distributions of 67 tree species in Europe at 10 km spatial resolution. We provide both climatically suitable future areas of occupancy and the future distribution expected under a scenario of natural dispersal for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and three time steps (2035, 2065, and 2095). Also, we provide a version of the dataset where tree ranges are limited by future land use. These data-driven projections were made using an ensemble species distribution model calibrated using EU-Forest, a comprehensive dataset of tree species occurrences for Europe, and driven by seven bioclimatic parameters derived from EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations, and two soil parameters. "EU-Trees4F", can benefit various research fields, including forestry, biodiversity, ecosystem services, and bio-economy. Possible applications include the calibration or benchmarking of dynamic vegetation models, or informing forest adaptation strategies based on assisted tree migration. Given the multiple European policy initiatives related to forests, this dataset represents a timely and valuable resource to support policymaking.
  • Tupek, Boris; Launiainen, Samuli; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Sievanen, Risto; Perttunen, Jari; Kulmala, Liisa; Penttila, Timo; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Hashimoto, Shoji; Lehtonen, Aleksi (2019)
    We can curb climate change by improved management decisions for the most important terrestrial carbon pool, soil organic carbon stock (SOC). However, we need to be confident we can obtain the correct representation of the simultanous effect of the input of plant litter, soil temperature and water (which could be altered by climate or management) on the decomposition of soil organic matter. In this research, we used regression and Bayesian statistics for testing process-based models (Yasso07, Yasso15 and CENTURY) with soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and SOC, measured at four sites in Finland during 2015 and 2016. We extracted climate modifiers for calibration with Rh. The Rh values of Yasso07, Yasso15 and CENTURY models estimated with default parameterization correlated with measured monthly heterotrophic respiration. Despite a significant correlation, models on average underestimated measured soil respiration by 43%. After the Bayesian calibration, the fitted climate modifier of the Yasso07 model outperformed the Yasso15 and CENTURY models. The Yasso07 model had smaller residual mean square errors and temperature and water functions with fewer, thus more efficient, parameters than the other models. After calibration, there was a small overestimate of Rh by the models that used monotonic moisture functions and a small generic underestimate in autumn. The mismatch between measured and modelled Rh indicates that the Yasso and CENTURY models should be improved by adjusting climate modifiers of decomposition or by accounting for missing controls in, for example, microbial growth.
  • Mattila, Pertti (2017)
    Let A and B be Borel subsets of the Euclidean n-space with dim A + dim B > n and let 0 <u <dim A + dim B n where dim denotes Hausdorff dimension. Let E be the set of those orthogonal transformations g is an element of O(n) for which dim A boolean AND (g(B) + z) n + 1, then dim E 2n-1, then dim A boolean AND (B + z) > u for z in a set of positive Lebesgue measure. If dim A + dim B <2n 1, the set of exceptional g is an element of 0(n) has dimension at most n(n-1)/2-u.
  • Hyytiäinen, Kari; Kolehmainen, Liisa; Amelung, Bas; Kok, Kasper; Lonkila, Kirsi Marja; Malve, Olli; Similä, Jukka; Sokero, Mikael; Zandersen, Marianne (2022)
    This paper offers an approach to long-term planning for an industrial sector that is sensitive to climate change, the state of adjacent natural environments and the associated socioeconomic developments. The paper combines exploratory and target-seeking scenarios to understand the future challenges of nature-based blue tourism under alternative global futures, and to develop sequences of actions to accomplish the best achievable future outcome for blue tourism at a local scale. We detail a bottom-up approach to scenario development for tourism, with local stakeholders developing local scenarios within the boundaries provided by the locally extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), widely used in climate research. As a demonstration of the approach, a group of invited stakeholders developed locally extended scenario narratives and the adaptation plans for blue tourism for coastal areas surrounding the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. The co-creation process yielded several recommendations for immediate action concerning protection of the coastal environments, land use planning, internal communication with the sector and coordinated monitoring of economic, ecological, social and cultural sustainability indicators. The approach offers a way forward for systematically assessing the future risks and opportunities that a changing environment and society create for blue tourism.
  • Heikkinen, Risto; Leikola, Niko; Aalto, Juha; Aapala, Kaisu; Luoto, Miska; Kuusela, Saija; Virkkala, Raimo (2020)
    Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable.
  • Bartosova, Alena; Capell, René; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Donnelly, Chantal; Hyytiäinen, Kari; Pihlainen, Sampo; Zandersen, Marianne; Arheimer, Berit (2019)
    The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.
  • Mattila, Pertti (2021)
    We give conditions on a general family P-lambda : R-n -> R-m, lambda is an element of Lambda of orthogonal projections which guarantee that the Hausdorff dimension formula dim A boolean AND P-lambda(-1){u} = s - m holds generically for measurable sets A subset of R-n with positive and finite s-dimensional Hausdorff measure, s > m, and with positive lower density. As an application we prove for measurable sets A, B subset of R-n with positive s- and t-dimensional measures, and with positive lower density that if s + (n - 1)t/n > n, then dim A boolean AND (g(B) + z) = s + t - n for almost all rotations g and for positively many z is an element of R-n.
  • Skytta, Eerik T.; Leskinen , Jarkko; Antti, Eskelinen; Huhtala, Heini; Ville, Remes (2011)
  • Räty, Olle; Räisänen, Jouni; Bosshard, Thomas; Donnelly, Chantal (2018)
    In this paper, the ability of two joint bias correction algorithms to adjust biases in daily mean temperature and precipitation is compared against two univariate quantile mapping methods when constructing projections from years 1981-2010 to early (2011-2040) and late (2061-2090) 21st century periods. Using both climate model simulations and the corresponding hydrological model simulations as proxies for the future in a pseudo-reality framework, these methods are inter-compared in a cross-validation manner in order to assess to what extent the more sophisticated methods have added value, particularly from the hydrological modeling perspective. By design, bi-variate bias correction methods improve the inter-variable relationships in the baseline period. Cross-validation results show, however, that both in the early and late 21st century conditions the additional benefit of using bi-variate bias correction methods is not obvious, as univariate methods have a comparable performance. From the evaluated hydrological variables, the added value is most clearly seen in the simulated snow water equivalent. Although not having the best performance in adjusting the temperature and precipitation distributions, quantile mapping applied as a delta change method performs well from the hydrological modeling point of view, particularly in the early 21st century conditions. This suggests that retaining the observed correlation structures of temperature and precipitation might in some cases be sufficient for simulating future hydrological climate change impacts.
  • Bonet, Jose; Lusky, Wolfgang; Taskinen, Jari (2020)
  • Trivino, Maria; Kujala, Heini; Araujo, Miguel B.; Cabeza, Mar (2018)
    Species are expected to shift their distributions in response to global environmental changes and additional protected areas are needed to encompass the corresponding changes in the distributions of their habitats. Conservation policies are likely to become obsolete unless they integrate the potential impacts of climate and land-use change on biodiversity. We identify conservation priority areas for current and future projected distributions of Iberian bird species. We then investigate the extent to which global change informed priority areas are: (i) covered by existing protected area networks (national protected areas and Natura 2000); (ii) threatened by agricultural or urban land-use changes. We use outputs of species distributions models fitted with climatic data as inputs in spatial prioritization tools to identify conservation priority areas for 168 bird species. We use projections of land-use change to then discriminate between threatened and non-threatened priority areas. 19% of the priority areas for birds are covered by national protected areas and 23% are covered by Natura 2000 sites. The spatial mismatch between protected area networks and priority areas for birds is projected to increase with climate change. But there are opportunities to improve the protection of birds under climate change, as half of the priority areas are currently neither protected nor in conflict with urban or agricultural land-uses. We identify critical areas for bird conservation both under current and climate change conditions, and propose that they could guide the establishment of new conservation areas across the Iberian Peninsula complementing existing protected areas.
  • GBD 2017 Population Fertility Coll (2018)
    Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-cotnponent method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46.4-52.0). The TFR decreased from 4.7 livebirths (4.5-4.9) to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83.8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197-2% (193.3-200.8) since 1950, from 2.6 billion (2.5-2.6) to 7.6 billion (7.4-7.9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2.0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1.1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2.5% in 1963 to O7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2.7%. The global average age increased from 26.6 years in 1950 to 32.1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59.9% to 65.3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1.0 livebirths (95% UI 0. 9-1.2) in Cyprus to a high of 7.1 livebirths (6.8-7.4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0.08 livebirths (0.07-0.09) in South Korea to 2.4 livebirths (2.2-2.6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (I F030; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0.3 livebirths (0.3-0-4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3.1 livebirths (3.0-3.2) in Niger. TF030 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017.33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2.0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Armstrong, Edward; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Valdes, Paul J. (2019)
    Regional climate models (RCMs) are often assumed to be more skillful compared to lower-resolution general circulation models (GCM). However, RCMs are driven by input from coarser resolution GCMs, which may introduce biases. This study employs versions of the HadAMB3 GCM at three resolutions (>50 km) to investigate the added value of higher resolution using identically configured simulations of the preindustrial (PI), mid-Holocene, and Last Glacial Maximum. The RCM shows improved PI climatology compared to the coarse-resolution GCM and enhanced paleoanomalies in the jet stream and storm tracks. However, there is no apparent improvement when compared to proxy reconstructions. In the high-resolution GCM, accuracy in PI climate and atmospheric anomalies are enhanced despite its intermediate resolution. This indicates that synoptic and mesoscale features in a RCM are influenced by its low-resolution input, which impacts the simulated climatology. This challenges the paradigm that RCMs improve the representation of climate conditions and change.
  • Makela, Jarmo; Minunno, Francesco; Aalto, Tuula; Makela, Annikki; Markkanen, Tiina; Peltoniemi, Mikko (2020)
    Forest ecosystems are already responding to changing environmental conditions that are driven by increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These developments affect how societies can utilise and benefit from the woodland areas in the future, be it for example climate change mitigation as carbon sinks, lumber for wood industry, or preserved for nature tourism and recreational activities. We assess the effect and the relative magnitude of different uncertainty sources in ecosystem model simulations from the year 1980 to 2100 for two Finnish boreal forest sites. The models used in this study are the land ecosystem model JSBACH and the forest growth model PREBAS. The considered uncertainty sources for both models are model parameters and four prescribed climates with two RCP (representative concentration pathway) scenarios. Usually, model parameter uncertainty is not included in these types of uncertainty studies. PREBAS simulations also include two forest management scenarios. We assess the effect of these sources of variation at four different points in time on several ecosystem indicators, e.g. gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration, soil moisture, recurrence of drought, length of the vegetation active period (VAP), length of the snow melting period and the stand volume. The uncertainty induced by the climate models remains roughly the same throughout the simulations and is overtaken by the RCP scenario impact halfway through the experiment. The management actions are the most dominant uncertainty factors for Hyytiala and as important as RCP scenarios at the end of the simulations, but they contribute only half as much for Sodankyla. The parameter uncertainty is the least influential of the examined uncertainty sources, but it is also the most elusive to estimate due to non-linear and adverse effects on the simulated ecosystem indicators. Our analysis underlines the importance of carefully considering the implementation of forest use when simulating future ecosystem conditions, as human impact is evident and even increasing in boreal forested regions.
  • Totah, Nelson K.; Logothetis, Nikos K.; Eschenko, Oxana (2021)
    The brainstem noradrenergic locus coeruleus (LC) is reciprocally connected with the prefrontal cortex (PFC). Coupling between LC spiking and the depolarizing phase of slow (1?2 Hz) waves in PFC field potentials during sleep and anesthesia suggests that LC drives cortical state transition. Reciprocal LC-PFC connectivity should also allow interactions in the opposing (top-down) direction, but prior work has only studied prefrontal control over LC activity using electrical or optogenetic stimulation. Here, we describe the physiological characteristics of spontaneously occurring top-down LC-PFC interactions. We recorded LC multiunit activity (MUA) simultaneously with PFC single-unit and local field potential (LFP) activity in urethane-anesthetized rats. We observed cross-regional coupling between the phase of 5-Hz oscillations in LC-MUA and the power of PFC LFP 60?200 Hz high y (hy). Transient increases in PFC hy power preceded peaks in the 5-Hz LC-MUA oscillation. Analysis of cross-regional transfer entropy demonstrated that the PFC hy transients were predictive of a transient increase in LC-MUA. An -29 ms delay between these signals was consistent with the conduction velocity from the PFC to the LC. Finally, we showed that PFC hy transients are associated with synchronized spiking of a subset (27%) of PFC single units. Our data suggest that PFC hy transients may indicate the timing of the top-down excitatory input to LC, at least under conditions when LC neuronal population activity fluctuates rhythmically at 5 Hz. Synchronized PFC neuronal spiking that occurs during hy transients may provide a previously unknown mode of top-down control over the LC. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is thought to control activity in the noradrenergic locus coeruleus (LC). Prior anatomical and prefrontal stimulation studies demonstrated the potential for PFC-LC interactions; however, it is unknown what types of PFC activity affect the LC. Here, we show that transient increases in PFC high y power and associated changes in PFC unit-pair synchrony are a potential sign of top-down control over the LC.
  • Kujala, Miiamaaria; Kauppi, Jukka-Pekka; Törnqvist, Heini; Helle, Liisa; Vainio, Outi; Kujala, Jan; Parkkonen, Lauri (2020)
    Dogs process faces and emotional expressions much like humans, but the time windows important for face processing in dogs are largely unknown. By combining our non-invasive electroencephalography (EEG) protocol on dogs with machine-learning algorithms, we show category-specific dog brain responses to pictures of human and dog facial expressions, objects, and phase-scrambled faces. We trained a support vector machine classifier with spatiotemporal EEG data to discriminate between responses to pairs of images. The classification accuracy was highest for humans or dogs vs. scrambled images, with most informative time intervals of 100-140 ms and 240-280 ms. We also detected a response sensitive to threatening dog faces at 30-40 ms; generally, responses differentiating emotional expressions were found at 130-170 ms, and differentiation of faces from objects occurred at 120-130 ms. The cortical sources underlying the highest-amplitude EEG signals were localized to the dog visual cortex.