Browsing by Subject "QUALITY"

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  • Sahlin, Ullrika; Helle, Inari; Perepolkin, Dmytro (2021)
    Failing to communicate current knowledge limitations, that is, epistemic uncertainty, in environmental risk assessment (ERA) may have severe consequences for decision making. Bayesian networks (BNs) have gained popularity in ERA, primarily because they can combine variables from different models and integrate data and expert judgment. This paper highlights potential gaps in the treatment of uncertainty when using BNs for ERA and proposes a consistent framework (and a set of methods) for treating epistemic uncertainty to help close these gaps. The proposed framework describes the treatment of epistemic uncertainty about the model structure, parameters, expert judgment, data, management scenarios, and the assessment's output. We identify issues related to the differentiation between aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and the importance of communicating both uncertainties associated with the assessment predictions (direct uncertainty) and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessment (indirect uncertainty). Probabilities, intervals, or scenarios are expressions of direct epistemic uncertainty. The type of BN determines the treatment of parameter uncertainty: epistemic, aleatory, or predictive. Epistemic BNs are useful for probabilistic reasoning about states of the world in light of evidence. Aleatory BNs are the most relevant for ERA, but they are not sufficient to treat epistemic uncertainty alone because they do not explicitly express parameter uncertainty. For uncertainty analysis, we recommend embedding an aleatory BN into a model for parameter uncertainty. Bayesian networks do not contain information about uncertainty in the model structure, which requires several models. Statistical models (e.g., hierarchical modeling outside the BNs) are required to consider uncertainties and variability associated with data. We highlight the importance of being open about things one does not know and carefully choosing a method to precisely communicate both direct and indirect uncertainty in ERA. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;00:1-12. (c) 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC)
  • Olasveengen, Theresa M.; de Caen, Allan R.; Mancini, Mary E.; Maconochie, Ian K.; Aickin, Richard; Atkins, Dianne L.; Berg, Robert A.; Bingham, Robert M.; Brooks, Steven C.; Castren, Maaret; Chung, Sung Phil; Considine, Julie; Couto, Thomaz Bittencourt; Escalante, Raffo; Gazmuri, Raul J.; Guerguerian, Anne-Marie; Hatanaka, Tetsuo; Koster, Rudolph W.; Kudenchuk, Peter J.; Lang, Eddy; Lim, Swee Han; Lofgren, Bo; Meaney, Peter A.; Montgomery, William H.; Morley, Peter T.; Morrison, Laurie J.; Nation, Kevin J.; Ng, Kee-Chong; Nadkarni, Vinay M.; Nishiyama, Chika; Nuthall, Gabrielle; Ong, Gene Yong-Kwang; Perkins, Gavin D.; Reis, Amelia G.; Ristagno, Giuseppe; Sakamoto, Tetsuya; Sayre, Michael R.; Schexnayder, Stephen M.; Sierra, Alfredo F.; Singletary, Eunice M.; Shimizu, Naoki; Smyth, Michael A.; Stanton, David; Tijssen, Janice A.; Travers, Andrew; Vaillancourt, Christian; Van de Voorde, Patrick; Hazinski, Mary Fran; Nolan, Jerry P.; ILCOR Collaborators (2017)
    The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation has initiated a near-continuous review of cardiopulmonary resuscitation science that replaces the previous 5-year cyclic batch-and-queue approach process. This is the first of an annual series of International Consensus on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations summary articles that will include the cardiopulmonary resuscitation science reviewed by the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation in the previous year. The review this year includes 5 basic life support and 1 paediatric Consensuses on Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Emergency Cardiovascular Care Science With Treatment Recommendations. Each of these includes a summary of the science and its quality based on Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation criteria and treatment recommendations. Insights into the deliberations of the International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation task force members are provided in Values and Preferences sections. Finally, the task force members have pri-oritised and listed the top 3 knowledge gaps for each population, intervention, comparator, and outcome question. (C) 2017 European Resuscitation Council and American Heart Association, Inc. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
  • Huilla, Heidi (2020)
    This study analyses how studies on disadvantaged schools, improvement and test-based accountability relate to each other. The analysis covers 69 studies on disadvantaged schools reported in prestigious educational journals and conducted in 1995–2015. Educational policies related to evaluation and accountability define the official goals of schooling, and the aim in this article is to analyse how the chosen studies discuss these educational policies and understand school success and failure. The following questions were asked: What typologies related to test-based accountability can be constructed in research on disadvantaged schools? What understandings of good schools are embedded in the identified typologies? Disadvantaged schools are at the centre of improvement and therefore also the target of evaluative policy practices. The results show that research supports test-based accountability practices, and that critical studies on school improvement are in the minority.
  • Raisanen, Sari; Hogue, Carol J. R.; Laine, Katariina; Kramer, Michael R.; Gissler, Mika; Heinonen, Seppo (2018)
    ObjectiveTo examine the effect of pregnancy history on the risk of stillbirth. MethodsIn a population-based cross-sectional study, data were reviewed from all women aged at least 20years with singleton pregnancies in Finland between 2000 and 2010. The primary outcomestillbirthwas defined as fetal death after 22 gestational weeks or death of a fetus weighing at least 500g. ResultsAmong 604047 singleton pregnancies, the prevalence of stillbirth was 3.17 per 1000 deliveries. Prevalence was lowest for multiparous women without previous pregnancy loss after adjusting for major pregnancy complications associated with stillbirth (placenta previa, placental abruption, and pre-eclampsia) and other confounders. Relative to these women, stillbirth prevalence was higher among multiparous women with previous spontaneous abortion and/or stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.20, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.36), nulliparous women with no previous pregnancy loss (aOR 1.23, 95% CI 1.10-1.38), and nulliparous women with prior spontaneous abortion (aOR 1.43, 95% CI 1.18-1.74). ConclusionPrevious pregnancy loss was found to be an independent risk factor for stillbirth, irrespective of the number of prior deliveries. Spontaneous abortion assessed as a part of pregnancy history was found to be an independent risk factor for stillbirth.
  • Mobile Airways Sentinel Network M; Bousquet, Jean; Hellings, Peter W.; Agache, Ioana; Haahtela, T.; Toppila-Salmi, S.; Kuitunen, M.; Valovirta, E.; Salimäki, Johanna; Vasankari, Tuula; Eklund, P.; Karjalainen, J.; Zuberbier, Torsten (2019)
    Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) has evolved from a guideline by using the best approach to integrated care pathways using mobile technology in patients with allergic rhinitis (AR) and asthma multimorbidity. The proposed next phase of ARIA is change management, with the aim of providing an active and healthy life to patients with rhinitis and to those with asthma multimorbidity across the lifecycle irrespective of their sex or socioeconomic status to reduce health and social inequities incurred by the disease. ARIA has followed the 8-step model of Kotter to assess and implement the effect of rhinitis on asthma multimorbidity and to propose multimorbid guidelines. A second change management strategy is proposed by ARIA Phase 4 to increase self-medication and shared decision making in rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity. An innovation of ARIA has been the development and validation of information technology evidence-based tools (Mobile Airways Sentinel Network [MASK]) that can inform patient decisions on the basis of a self-care plan proposed by the health care professional.
  • Laursen, Karsten; Moller, Anders Pape; Haugaard, Lars; Öst, Markus; Vainio, Jouni (2019)
    Capital breeders, such as the eider duck Somateria mollissima, accumulate resources before the start of breeding. Eiders preferentially feed on blue mussels Mytilus edulis to build up body condition during winter. We explored how body condition and gizzard mass of wintering eiders relate to mussel quality and quantity, winter climate and body condition of females at the breeding grounds. Body condition during winter (defined as scaled body mass index) of eiders increased during winter and the magnitude of the effect depended on age and mussel quality. Gizzard mass of eiders increased during winter with effects of mussel quality, mussel stocks and sex. Body condition in winter of adult females increased from the first half of January to the second half of February on average by 1.5%, equal to c. 96 g. During the same period gizzard mass of adult females increased by 12.2%, i.e., a nearly ten-fold increase compared to that observed in body condition in winter. Body condition of females at the breeding grounds in Finland (defined as body condition at hatching) was significantly positively correlated with gizzard mass in winter, but not significantly correlated with body condition in winter. Thus, eiders allocate body reserves to increase gizzard mass but less so to increase body condition in winter. This can be considered an adaptive migratory strategy of these eiders, whereby large winter (pre-migratory) gizzards increase food processing capacity, making it possible for eiders to arrive at the breeding grounds with superior body condition and a high reproductive potential.
  • Bleyer, Ismael Rodrigo; Lybeck, Lasse; Auvinen, Harri; Airaksinen, Manu; Alku, Paavo; Siltanen, Samuli (2017)
    A new method is proposed for solving the glottal inverse filtering (GIF) problem. The goal of GIF is to separate an acoustical speech signal into two parts: the glottal airflow excitation and the vocal tract filter. To recover such information one has to deal with a blind deconvolution problem. This ill-posed inverse problem is solved under a deterministic setting, considering unknowns on both sides of the underlying operator equation. A stable reconstruction is obtained using a double regularization strategy, alternating between fixing either the glottal source signal or the vocal tract filter. This enables not only splitting the nonlinear and nonconvex problem into two linear and convex problems, but also allows the use of the best parameters and constraints to recover each variable at a time. This new technique, called alternating minimization glottal inverse filtering (AM-GIF), is compared with two other approaches: Markov chain Monte Carlo glottal inverse filtering (MCMC-GIF), and iterative adaptive inverse filtering (IAIF), using synthetic speech signals. The recent MCMC-GIF has good reconstruction quality but high computational cost. The state-of-the-art IAIF method is computationally fast but its accuracy deteriorates, particularly for speech signals of high fundamental frequency (F0). The results show the competitive performance of the new method: With high F0, the reconstruction quality is better than that of IAIF and close to MCMC-GIF while reducing the computational complexity by two orders of magnitude.
  • Järviö, Natasha; Maljanen, Netta-Leena; Kobayashi, Yumi; Ryynänen, Toni; Tuomisto, Hanna (2021)
    Novel food production technologies are being developed to address the challenges of securing sustainable and healthy nutrition for the growing global population. This study assessed the environmental impacts of microbial protein (MP) produced by autotrophic hydrogen-oxidizing bacteria (HOB). Data was collected from a company currently producing MP using HOB (hereafter simply referred to as MP) on a small-scale. Earlier studies have performed an environmental assessment of MP on a theoretical basis but no study yet has used empirical data. An attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) with a cradle-to-gate approach was used to quantify global warming potential (GWP), land use, freshwater and marine eutrophication potential, water scarcity, human (non-)carcinogenic toxicity, and the cumulative energy demand (CED) of MP production in Finland. A Monte Carlo analysis was performed to assess uncertainties. The impacts of alternative production options and locations were explored. The impacts were compared with animal- and plant-based protein sources for human consumption as well as protein sources for feed. The results showed that electricity consumption had the highest contribution to environmental impacts. Therefore, the source of energy had a substantial impact on the results. MP production using hydropower as an energy source yielded 87.5% lower GWP compared to using the average Finnish electricity mix. In comparison with animal-based protein sources for food production, MP had 53-100% lower environmental impacts depending on the reference product and the source of energy assumed for MP production. When compared with plant-based protein sources for food production, MP had lower land and water use requirements, and eutrophication potential but GWP was reduced only if low-emission energy sources were used. Compared to protein sources for feed production, MP production often resulted in lower environmental impact for GWP (FHE), land use, and eutrophication and acidification potential, but generally caused high water scarcity and required more energy.
  • Seppä, Laila Elisabet; Tahvonen, Risto; Tuorila, Hely Margareetta (2016)
  • Becker, Daniel J.; Hall, Richard J.; Forbes, Kristian M.; Plowright, Raina K.; Altizer, Sonia (2018)
  • Yanes, Manar; Santoni, Giola; Maret-Ouda, John; Ness-Jensen, Eivind; Farkkila, Martti; Lynge, Elsebeth; Nwaru, Bright; Pukkala, Eero; Romundstad, Pal; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; von Euler-Chelpin, My; Lagergren, Jesper (2020)
    Introduction: Airway micro-aspiration might contribute to the proposed associations between gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and some lung diseases, including lung cancer. This study aimed to examine the hypothesis that antireflux surgery decreases the risk of small cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma of the lung differently depending on their location in relation to micro-aspiration. Methods: Population-based cohort study including patients having undergone antireflux surgery during 1980-2014 in Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway or Sweden. Patients having undergone antireflux surgery were compared with two groups: 1) the corresponding background population, by calculating standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and 2) non-operated GERD-patients, by calculating hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs using multivariable Cox regression with adjustment for sex, age, calendar period, country, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and obesity diagnosis or type 2 diabetes. Results: Among all 812,617 GERD-patients, 46,996 (5.8%) had undergone antireflux surgery. The SIRs were statistically significantly decreased for small cell carcinoma (SIR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.41-0.77) and squamous cell carcinoma (SIR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.60-0.92), but not for adenocarcinoma of the lung (SIR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.76-1.06). The HRs were also below unity for small cell carcinoma (HR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.44-0.90) and squamous cell carcinoma (HR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.62-1.03), but not for adenocarcinoma of the lung (HR = 1.03, 95% CI 0.84-1.26). Analyses restricted to patients with objective GERD (reflux oesophagitis or Barrett's oesophagus) showed similar results. Conclusions: This all-Nordic study indicates that patients who undergo antireflux surgery are at decreased risk of small cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma of the lung, but not of adenocarcinoma of the lung. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Kivikoski, Mikko; Rastas, Pasi; Löytynoja, Ari; Merila, Juha (2021)
    We describe an integrative approach to improve contiguity and haploidy of a reference genome assembly and demonstrate its impact with practical examples. With two novel features of Lep-Anchor software and a combination of dense linkage maps, overlap detection and bridging long reads, we generated an improved assembly of the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) reference genome. We were able to remove a significant number of haplotypic contigs, detect more genetic variation and improve the contiguity of the genome, especially that of X chromosome. However, improved scaffolding cannot correct for mosaicism of erroneously assembled contigs, demonstrated by a de novo assembly of a 1.6-Mbp inversion. Qualitatively similar gains were obtained with the genome of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Since the utility of genome-wide sequencing data in biological research depends heavily on the quality of the reference genome, the improved and fully automated approach described here should be helpful in refining reference genome assemblies.
  • Tiwari, Ananda; Hokajärvi, Anna-Maria; Santo Domingo, Jorge; Elk, Michael; Jayaprakash, Balamuralikrishna; Ryu, Hodon; Siponen, Sallamaari; Vepsäläinen, Asko; Kauppinen, Ari; Puurunen, Osmo; Artimo, Aki; Perkola, Noora; Huttula, Timo; Miettinen, Ilkka T.; Pitkänen, Tarja (2021)
    Background Rivers and lakes are used for multiple purposes such as for drinking water (DW) production, recreation, and as recipients of wastewater from various sources. The deterioration of surface water quality with wastewater is well-known, but less is known about the bacterial community dynamics in the affected surface waters. Understanding the bacterial community characteristics -from the source of contamination, through the watershed to the DW production process-may help safeguard human health and the environment. Results The spatial and seasonal dynamics of bacterial communities, their predicted functions, and potential health-related bacterial (PHRB) reads within the Kokemaenjoki River watershed in southwest Finland were analyzed with the 16S rRNA-gene amplicon sequencing method. Water samples were collected from various sampling points of the watershed, from its major pollution sources (sewage influent and effluent, industrial effluent, mine runoff) and different stages of the DW treatment process (pre-treatment, groundwater observation well, DW production well) by using the river water as raw water with an artificial groundwater recharge (AGR). The beta-diversity analysis revealed that bacterial communities were highly varied among sample groups (R = 0.92, p <0.001, ANOSIM). The species richness and evenness indices were highest in surface water (Chao1; 920 +/- 10) among sample groups and gradually decreased during the DW treatment process (DW production well; Chao1: 320 +/- 20). Although the phylum Proteobacteria was omnipresent, its relative abundance was higher in sewage and industrial effluents (66-80%) than in surface water (55%). Phyla Firmicutes and Fusobacteria were only detected in sewage samples. Actinobacteria was more abundant in the surface water (>= 13%) than in other groups (= 13%) than in others (
  • Miettinen, Jenni; Ollikainen, Markku; Aroviita, Jukka; Haikarainen, Soili; Nieminen, Mika; Turunen, Jarno; Valsta, Lauri (2020)
    Ditch network maintenance promotes forest growth in drained peatland forests but increases nutrient and sediment loads, which are detrimental to water quality. Society needs to balance the harvest revenue from improved forest growth against deteriorating water quality. We examine socially optimal even-aged forest management in drained peatlands when harvesting and ditch network maintenance cause nutrient and sediment loading. The means to reduce loading include establishing overland flow fields and abstaining from ditch network maintenance. We characterize this choice analytically in a rotation framework and examine, in a numerical model, the key factors affecting the choice of forest management and water protection measures. We choose a drained peatland forest site located in northeastern Finland in the vicinity of ecologically vulnerable forest headwater streams. On the given drained forest site, we find a set of parameters under which implementing ditch network maintenance is privately but not socially optimal.
  • Wiersema, Renske; Eck, Ruben J.; Haapio, Mikko; Koeze, Jacqueline; Poukkanen, Meri; Keus, Frederik; van der Horst, Iwan C. C.; Pettilä, Ville; Vaara, Suvi T. (2019)
    Background Mortality rates associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) vary among critically ill patients. Outcomes are often not corrected for severity or duration of AKI. Our objective was to analyse whether a new variable, AKI burden, would outperform 1) presence of AKI, 2) highest AKI stage, or 3) AKI duration in predicting 90-day mortality. Methods Kidney Diseases: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria using creatinine, urine output and renal replacement therapy were used to diagnose AKI. AKI burden was defined as AKI stage multiplied with the number of days that each stage was present (maximum five), divided by the maximum possible score yielding a proportion. The AKI burden as a predictor of 90-day mortality was assessed in two independent cohorts (Finnish Acute Kidney Injury, FINNAKI and Simple Intensive Care Studies I, SICS-I) by comparing four multivariate logistic regression models that respectively incorporated either the presence of AKI, the highest AKI stage, the duration of AKI, or the AKI burden. Results In the FINNAKI cohort 1096 of 2809 patients (39%) had AKI and 90-day mortality of the cohort was 23%. Median AKI burden was 0.17 (IQR 0.07-0.50), 1.0 being the maximum. The model including AKI burden (area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC) 0.78, 0.76-0.80) outperformed the models using AKI presence (AUROC 0.77, 0.75-0.79, p = 0.026) or AKI severity (AUROC 0.77, 0.75-0.79, p = 0.012), but not AKI duration (AUROC 0.77, 0.75-0.79, p = 0.06). In the SICS-I, 603 of 1075 patients (56%) had AKI and 90-day mortality was 28%. Median AKI burden was 0.19 (IQR 0.08-0.46). The model using AKI burden performed better (AUROC 0.77, 0.74-0.80) than the models using AKI presence (AUROC 0.75, 0.71-0.78, p = 0.001), AKI severity (AUROC 0.76, 0.72-0.79. p = 0.008) or AKI duration (AUROC 0.76, 0.73-0.79, p = 0.009). Conclusion AKI burden, which appreciates both severity and duration of AKI, was superior to using only presence or the highest stage of AKI in predicting 90-day mortality. Using AKI burden or other more granular methods may be helpful in future epidemiological studies of AKI.
  • Lizarazo, Clara; Lampi, Anna-Maija; Mäkelä, Pirjo (2021)
    Caraway seeds contain between 0.5-7% essential oil, rich in monoterpenes that have a characteristic aroma and chemical properties. Caraway oil has several bioactive compounds that are of industrial importance, particularly for pharmaceutical and health care products. Carvone and limonene are the main terpenes present in caraway oil, which along with some unique fatty acids (i.e. petroselinic acid) determine caraway (Carum carvi L.) oil quality. Both terpenes are important raw materials for industrial applications and their concentration influences the price of caraway seed and oil, hence there is need for identifying management practices that may increase the concentration of these and other bioactive compounds to improve caraway seed oil quality. A field experiment with five treatments: a control and a series of foliar-applied micronutrients (either Cu, Mg, Mn or Zn was done to identify their potential to enhance caraway oil quality. Solid-phase microextraction and gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector were used to characterize oil quality. Our results indicate that while the micronutrient treatments have a significant effect on essential oil composition, both in carvone and limonene, such an effect was not found on all fatty acids but only in two of them-palmitoleic and vaccenic acid-, which were highest after the Mn treatment. Overall, the carvone content of the seeds decreased the least between years following Mn treatment. Mn treatment also caused an increase in limonene in the second year in contrast to the trend for all other treatments. The Mn foliar spray needs to be studied further to elucidate whether it could have a consistent positive effect on caraway oil seed quality upon adjusting dosage and spraying time.
  • Halonen, Pia; Jakobsson, Maija; Heikinheimo, Oskari; Riska, Annika; Gissler, Mika; Pukkala, Eero (2018)
    The association between Lichen planus (LP) and cancer has been under debate for decades. We studied the connection via population-based Finnish register data. All women with the diagnosis of LP (n=13,100) were identified from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Registry from 1969-2012. These patients were linked with subsequent cancer diagnoses from the Finnish Cancer Registry until 2014. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were counted for different cancers by dividing the observed numbers of cancers by expected numbers, which were based on national cancer incidence rates. In total, 1,520 women with LP were diagnosed with cancer (SIR 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.20). LP was associated with an increased risk of cancer of lip (SIR 5.17, 95% CI 3.06-8.16), cancer of tongue (SIR 12.4, 95% CI 9.45-16.0), cancer of oral cavity (SIR 7.97, 95% CI 6.79-9.24), cancer of esophagus (SIR 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.04), cancer of larynx (SIR of 3.47, 95% CI 1.13-8.10) and cancer of vulva (SIR 1.99, 95% CI 1.18-3.13). The risk of cancer was not increased in other locations where LP manifests (pharynx and skin). Patients with diagnosed LP have an increased risk of developing cancer of lip, tongue, oral cavity, esophagus, larynx and vulva. These data are important when considering treatment and follow-up of patients with LP diagnosis. What's new?Lichen planus (LP) is a chronic disease of the skin and mucous membranes that is likely autoimmune in origin. Owing to its inflammatory nature, it is also suspected of causing certain cancers. Whether LP possesses malignant potential, however, remains uncertain. Here, in a cohort of 13,100 women diagnosed with LP between 1969 and 2012 in Finland, some 1,520 were eventually diagnosed with cancer. Malignancies with significant increases in incidence in LP patients included those of the lip, tongue, oral cavity, esophagus, larynx and vulva. The findings suggest that LP patients could benefit from multidisciplinary approaches to care.
  • Waldén, Pirjetta; Ollikainen, Markku; Kahiluoto, Helena (2020)
    The impact of carbon revenue on the profitability of agroforestry systems in comparison to monocultures is unexplored in regard to Sub-Saharan Africa. This study creates a multivariate model to evaluate the impact of carbon revenue on the profitability of agroforestry relative to the dominant monocultures in Ethiopia by using stylized plots. Yields and carbon stock changes of eight agroforestry systems were modeled based on data from agroforestry plots in the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley. According to our model, agroforestry was, on average, four times more profitable than the main monoculture systems (wheat, barley, maize, teff, sorghum, sugarcane and lentil) even when carbon revenues were excluded, primarily due to the higher prices of fruit produce. Carbon revenues were estimated using a plausible carbon price ranging from US$8/tCO2e to $40/tCO2e and carbon sequestration rates of 0.59 to 17.2 Mg C ha−1 year−1. The possibility of receiving carbon revenue increased the profitability of agroforestry by 0.5% when using the lowest utilized carbon price and carbon sequestration rate, by 20% when using the carbon price of $20 and the average carbon sequestration rate, and by 70% when using the highest price and highest sequestration rate of carbon. On average, carbon revenue increased the profitability of agroforestry by 150% in comparison to monoculture farming. We conclude that carbon income may have significant potential to motivate smallholders to convert to agroforestry when there is a proper management system, a sufficiently high carbon price and effective institutional support to mitigate the transition and transaction costs.
  • Tikkinen, Kari A. O.; Craigie, Samantha; Schünemann, Holger J.; Guyatt, Gordon H. (2018)
    Objectives: The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach to rating certainty of evidence includes five domains of reasons for rating down certainty. Only one of these, precision, is easily amenable through the confidence interval to quantitation. The other four (risk of bias, inconsistency, indirectness, and publication bias) are not. Nevertheless, conceptually, one could consider a quantified "certainty range" within which the true effect lies. The certainty range would be at least as wide as the confidence interval and would expand with each additional reason for uncertainty. Study Design and Setting: We have applied this concept to rating the certainty of evidence in the baseline risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and bleeding in patients undergoing urological surgery. We considered rating up moderate or low quality evidence when the net benefit of VTE prophylaxis was unequivocally positive, that is, when the smallest plausible value of VTE reduction was greater than the largest plausible value of increased bleeding. To establish whether the net benefit was unequivocally positive, we expanded the range of plausible values by 20% for each of the four nonquantitative domains in which there were serious limitations. Results: We present how we applied these methods to examples of open radical cystectomy and laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. In high-VTE risk laparoscopic partial nephrectomy patients and high-and medium-VTE risk open radical cystectomy patients, results proved robust to expanded certainty intervals, justifying rating up quality of evidence. In low -risk patients, the results were not robust, and rating up was therefore not appropriate. Conclusion: This work represents the first empirical application in a decision -making context of the previously suggested concept of certainty ranges and should stimulate further exploration of the associated theoretical and practical issues. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
  • Jansson, A. H.; Savikko, N.; Kautiainen, H.; Roitto, H. -M.; Pitkälä, K. H. (2020)