Browsing by Subject "REGIME SHIFTS"

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  • Milardi, Marco; Lappalainen, Jyrki; McGowan, Suzanne; Weckström, Jan (2017)
    The additional input and enhanced cycling of nutrients derived from introduced fish can be a significant factor altering nutrient dynamics in oligotrophic lakes. To test this, we used a bioenergetic model to estimate the fish-derived nutrient load in Lake Kuutsjurvi, a historically fishless boreal lake of northern Fennoscandia. The lake was selected because of the absence of other anthropogenic stressors, a known stocking history and the possibility of quantitatively estimating the size-structure and biomass of the fish population through a mass removal. Subsequently, we used a mass balance model to compare fish-derived nutrients with other nutrient load pathways. For comparison over longer timescales, we used lake sediment records of diatoms, chlorophyll and carotenoid pigments, C: N ratios and stable isotopes to infer whether fish introduction produced detectable changes in the lake trophic state, primary productivity and terrestrial nutrient input. Based on the nutrient mass balance model, we found that phosphorus and nitrogen derived from fish were 0.46% and 2.2%, respectively, of the total load to the lake, suggesting that fish introduction could not markedly increase the nutrient load. Accordingly, the palaeolimnological record indicated little increase in primary production but instead a shift from pelagic to benthic production after fish introduction.
  • Pihlajamäki, Mia-Elina; Helle, Inari; Haapasaari, Päivi; Sarkki, Simo; Kuikka, Sakari; Lehikoinen, Annukka (2020)
    Fisheries management aims to ensure that the fishing activities are environmentally sustainable in the long term, while also achieving the economic, social and food security related management objectives. To facilitate this, both the ecological and human dimensions of sustainability need to be included in fisheries assessment. In addition, assessing long-term sustainability calls for taking into account plausible changes in the surrounding societal conditions that shape the characteristics of the fisheries governance system, as well as the ecological conditions. The paper uses a combination of qualitative exploratory scenario storylines (ESS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to integrate the environmental, economic, social and food security dimensions in an interdisciplinary assessment of the future sustainability of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries. First, four alternative ESS were created based on plausible changes in societal drivers. The ESS were then formulated into a BBN to (a) visualize the assumed causalities, and (b) examine quantitatively how changes in the societal drivers affect the social-ecological fisheries system and ultimately the fisheries management objectives. This type of probabilistic scenario synthesis can help in thinking qualitative scenarios in a quantitative way. Moreover, it can increase understanding on the causal links between societal driving forces and the complex fisheries system and on how the management objectives can be achieved, thereby providing valuable information for strategic decision-making under uncertainty.
  • Kroencke, Ingrid; Neumann, Hermann; Dippner, Joachim W.; Holbrook, Sally; Lamy, Thomas; Miller, Robert; Padedda, Bachisio Mario; Pulina, Silvia; Reed, Daniel C.; Reinikainen, Marko; Satta, Cecilia T.; Sechi, Nicola; Soltwedel, Thomas; Suikkanen, Sanna; Luglie, Antonella (2019)
    Data from five sites of the International Long Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network in the NorthEastern Pacific, Western Arctic Ocean, Northern Baltic Sea, South-Eastern North Sea and in the Western Mediterranean Sea were analyzed by dynamic factor analysis (DFA) to trace common multi-year trends in abundance and composition of phytoplankton, benthic fauna and temperate reef fish. Multiannual trends were related to climate and environmental variables to study interactions. Two common trends in biological responses were detected, with temperature and climate indices as explanatory variables in four of the five LTER sites considered. Only one trend was observed at the fifth site, the Northern Baltic Sea, where no explanatory variables were identified. Our findings revealed quasi-synchronous biological shifts in the different marine ecosystems coincident with the 2000 climatic regime shift and provided evidence on a possible further biological shift around 2010. The observed biological modifications were coupled with abrupt or continuous increase in sea water and air temperature confirming the key-role of temperature in structuring marine communities.
  • Roth, Florian; RAdecker, Nils; Carvalho, Susana; Duarte, Carlos M.; Saderne, Vincent; Anton, Andrea; Silva, Luis; Calleja, Maria Ll; MorAn, XosE Anxelu G.; Voolstra, Christian R.; Kuerten, Benjamin; Jones, Burton H.; Wild, Christian (2021)
    Shifts from coral to algal dominance are expected to increase in tropical coral reefs as a result of anthropogenic disturbances. The consequences for key ecosystem functions such as primary productivity, calcification, and nutrient recycling are poorly understood, particularly under changing environmental conditions. We used a novel in situ incubation approach to compare functions of coral- and algae-dominated communities in the central Red Sea bimonthly over an entire year. In situ gross and net community primary productivity, calcification, dissolved organic carbon fluxes, dissolved inorganic nitrogen fluxes, and their respective activation energies were quantified to describe the effects of seasonal changes. Overall, coral-dominated communities exhibited 30% lower net productivity and 10 times higher calcification than algae-dominated communities. Estimated activation energies indicated a higher thermal sensitivity of coral-dominated communities. In these communities, net productivity and calcification were negatively correlated with temperature (>40% and >65% reduction, respectively, with +5 degrees C increase from winter to summer), whereas carbon losses via respiration and dissolved organic carbon release more than doubled at higher temperatures. In contrast, algae-dominated communities doubled net productivity in summer, while calcification and dissolved organic carbon fluxes were unaffected. These results suggest pronounced changes in community functioning associated with coral-algal phase shifts. Algae-dominated communities may outcompete coral-dominated communities because of their higher productivity and carbon retention to support fast biomass accumulation while compromising the formation of important reef framework structures. Higher temperatures likely amplify these functional differences, indicating a high vulnerability of ecosystem functions of coral-dominated communities to temperatures even below coral bleaching thresholds. Our results suggest that ocean warming may not only cause but also amplify coral-algal phase shifts in coral reefs.