Browsing by Subject "SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS"

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  • Zhang, Chao; Atherton, Jon; Penuelas, Josep; Filella, Iolanda; Kolari, Pasi; Aalto, Juho; Ruhanen, Hanna; Back, Jaana; Porcar-Castell, Albert (2019)
    Chlorophyll a fluorescence (ChlF) is closely related to photosynthesis and can be measured remotely using multiple spectral features as solar-induced fluorescence (SIF). In boreal regions, SIF shows particular promise as an indicator of photosynthesis, in part because of the limited variation of seasonal light absorption in these ecosystems. Seasonal spectral changes in ChlF could yield new information on processes such as sustained nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ(S)) but also disrupt the relationship between SIF and photosynthesis. We followed ChlF and functional and biochemical properties of Pinus sylvestris needles during the photosynthetic spring recovery period to answer the following: (a) How ChlF spectra change over seasonal timescales? (b) How pigments, NPQ(S), and total photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorption drive changes of ChlF spectra? (c) Do all ChlF wavelengths track photosynthetic seasonality? We found seasonal ChlF variation in the red and far-red wavelengths, which was strongly correlated with NPQ(S), carotenoid content, and photosynthesis (enhanced in the red), but not with PAR absorption. Furthermore, a rapid decrease in red/far-red ChlF ratio occurred in response to a cold spell, potentially relating to the structural reorganization of the photosystems. We conclude that all current SIF retrieval features can track seasonal photosynthetic dynamics in boreal evergreens, but the full SIF spectra provides additional insight.
  • Vepsäläinen, Jari; Ritari, Antti; Lajunen, Antti; Kivekäs, Klaus; Tammi, Kari (2018)
    Uncertainty in operation factors, such as the weather and driving behavior, makes it difficult to accurately predict the energy consumption of electric buses. As the consumption varies, the dimensioning of the battery capacity and charging systems is challenging and requires a dedicated decision-making process. To investigate the impact of uncertainty, six electric buses were measured in three routes with an Internet of Things (IoT) system from February 2016 to December 2017 in southern Finland in real operation conditions. The measurement results were thoroughly analyzed and the operation factors that caused variation in the energy consumption and internal resistance of the battery were studied in detail. The average energy consumption was 0.78 kWh/km and the consumption varied by more than 1 kWh/km between trips. Furthermore, consumption was 15% lower on a suburban route than on city routes. The energy consumption was mostly influenced by the ambient temperature, driving behavior, and route characteristics. The internal resistance varied mainly as a result of changes in the battery temperature and charging current. The energy consumption was predicted with above 75% accuracy with a linear model. The operation factors were correlated and a novel second-order normalization method was introduced to improve the interpretation of the results. The presented models and analyses can be integrated to powertrain and charging system design, as well as schedule planning.
  • Ponstein, Helena; Ghinoi, Stefano; Steiner, Bodo (2019)
    As wine supply chains become increasingly globalized, sustainability issues take on ever greater importance. This is the first study to analyse the environmental sustainability aspect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a global wine supply chain perspective, covering just over 90% of Finland's wine imports. Lacking substantial domestic production capacity, virtually all wine consumed in Finland is imported. Finland is comparable to its Nordic neighbours, Sweden and Norway, in this respect. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology was combined with sensitivity and scenario analyses to investigate GHG emissions implications from prospective policy changes. Our results spotlight differences related to wine production in the eight main wine producing countries for the Finnish market (Australia, Chile, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, South Africa, and the United States), related logistics, and all packaging types for wine used in Finland (glass bottle, Bag-in-Box, PET bottle, beverage carton, and pouch). We found an average value of 1.23 kg CO2e for 0.75 L wine consumed in Finland, ranging from 0.59 kg CO2e for French wine in a bag-in-box packaging to 1.92 kg CO2e for Australian wine in a glass bottle. After identifying the main GHG emission hotspots in the wine supply chain, our scenario analyses highlight the effects of reducing glass bottle weight, moving away from glass packaging toward bag-inbox, increasing bulk wine export volumes to Finland, and following the European Commission's Energy 2020 strategy which targets increasing energy efficiency by 20 percent.
  • Behrens, Jorn; Lovholt, Finn; Jalayer, Fatemeh; Lorito, Stefano; Salgado-Galvez, Mario A.; Sorensen, Mathilde; Abadie, Stephane; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Aniel-Quiroga, Inigo; Babeyko, Andrey; Baiguera, Marco; Basili, Roberto; Belliazzi, Stefano; Grezio, Anita; Johnson, Kendra; Murphy, Shane; Paris, Raphael; Rafliana, Irina; De Risi, Raffaele; Rossetto, Tiziana; Selva, Jacopo; Taroni, Matteo; Del Zoppo, Marta; Armigliato, Alberto; Bures, Vladimir; Cech, Pavel; Cecioni, Claudia; Christodoulides, Paul; Davies, Gareth; Dias, Frederic; Bayraktar, Hafize Basak; Gonzalez, Mauricio; Gritsevich, Maria; Guillas, Serge; Harbitz, Carl Bonnevie; Kanoglu, Utku; Macias, Jorge; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Polet, Jascha; Romano, Fabrizio; Salamon, Amos; Scala, Antonio; Stepinac, Mislav; Tappin, David R.; Thio, Hong Kie; Tonini, Roberto; Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Ulrich, Thomas; Varini, Elisa; Volpe, Manuela; Vyhmeister, Eduardo (2021)
    Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.
  • Räsänen, Aleksi; Heikkinen, Kimmo; Piila, Noora; Juhola, Sirkku (2019)
    Climate change is likely to increase the risks related to heat waves in urban areas. We map spatial pattern of heat wave vulnerability and risk in the Helsinki metropolitan area in southern Finland. First, we assess differences that zoning, i.e., differences in spatial units of analysis, and weighting, i.e., weights given to indicators when constructing the index, cause in map production. Second, we evaluate how maps of consensus and certainty could pave the way for visualizing and assessing uncertainties in risk and vulnerability indices. For vulnerability, we use socioeconomic data using 5 different zoning options and 11 different weighting options. For risk, we add two extra layers to vulnerability maps: hazard map showing the spatial pattern of heat based on Landsat satellite images and exposure map showing the spatial pattern of population. We found that when different zoning options are used, the spatial pattern of vulnerability may differ dramatically. In risk maps, the differences between zoning options are smaller. Contrary to previous literature, differences in indicator weighting alter the final maps slightly. The consensus and certainty maps show their potential, e.g., in pointing out areas which may have both high risk/vulnerability and high certainty for risk/vulnerability. Finally, we discuss other possibilities in tackling the uncertainties in mapping and propose new avenues for research.