Browsing by Subject "SEX-SPECIFIC MORTALITY"

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  • James, Spencer L.; Lucchesi, Lydia R.; Bisignano, Catherine; Castle, Chris D.; Dingels, Zachary; Fox, Jack T.; Hamilton, Erin B.; Henry, Nathaniel J.; McCracken, Darrah; Roberts, Nicholas L. S.; Sylte, Dillon O.; Ahmadi, Alireza; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Alahdab, Fares; Alipour, Vahid; Andualem, Zewudu; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Arabloo, Jalal; Badiye, Ashish D.; Bagherzadeh, Mojtaba; Banstola, Amrit; Baernighausen, Till Winfried; Barzegar, Akbar; Bayati, Mohsen; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Bijani, Ali; Bukhman, Gene; Carvalho, Felix; Crowe, Christopher Stephen; Dalal, Koustuv; Daryani, Ahmad; Nasab, Mostafa Dianati; Hoa Thi Do,; Huyen Phuc Do,; Endries, Aman Yesuf; Fernandes, Eduarda; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork Bizuwork; Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn; Gilani, Syed Amir; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Hamidi, Samer; Hostiuc, Sorin; Househ, Mowafa; Igumbor, Ehimario U.; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Kahsay, Amaha; Kapoor, Neeti; Kasaeian, Amir; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khazaee-Pool, Maryam; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Lopez, Alan D.; Madadin, Mohammed; Majdan, Marek; Maled, Venkatesh; Malekzadeh, Reza; Manafi, Navid; Manafi, Ali; Mangalam, Srikanth; Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard; Meles, Hagazi Gebre; Menezes, Ritesh G.; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Miazgowski, Bartosz; Miller, Ted R.; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Mohammadpourhodki, Reza; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Negoi, Ionut; Trang Huyen Nguyen,; Son Hoang Nguyen,; Cuong Tat Nguyen,; Nixon, Molly R.; Olagunju, Andrew T.; Olagunju, Tinuke O.; Padubidri, Jagadish Rao; Polinder, Suzanne; Rabiee, Navid; Rabiee, Mohammad; Radfar, Amir; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rawaf, Salman; Rawaf, David Laith; Rezapour, Aziz; Rickard, Jennifer; Roro, Elias Merdassa; Roy, Nobhojit; Safari-Faramani, Roya; Salamati, Payman; Samy, Abdallah M.; Satpathy, Maheswar; Sawhney, Monika; Schwebel, David C.; Senthilkumaran, Subramanian; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Shigematsu, Mika; Soheili, Amin; Stokes, Mark A.; Tohidinik, Hamid Reza; Bach Xuan Tran,; Valdez, Pascual R.; Wijeratne, Tissa; Yisma, Engida; Zaidi, Zoubida; Zamani, Mohammad; Zhang, Zhi-Jiang; Hay, Simon; Mokdad, Ali H. (2020)
    Background Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. Results Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). Conclusions The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.
  • James, Spencer L.; Castle, Chris D.; Dingels, Zachary; Fox, Jack T.; Hamilton, Erin B.; Liu, Zichen; Roberts, Nicholas L. S.; Sylte, Dillon O.; Bertolacci, Gregory J.; Cunningham, Matthew; Henry, Nathaniel J.; LeGrand, Kate E.; Abdelalim, Ahmed; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi; Abedi, Aidin; Abegaz, Kedir Hussein; Abosetugn, Akine Eshete; Abushouk, Abdelrahman; Adebayo, Oladimeji M.; Adsuar, Jose C.; Advani, Shailesh M.; Agudelo-Botero, Marcela; Ahmad, Tauseef; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Ahmed, Rushdia; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Alahdab, Fares; Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour; Alema, Niguse Meles; Alemu, Biresaw Wassihun; Alghnam, Suliman A.; Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir; Ali, Saqib; Alinia, Cyrus; Alipour, Vahid; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed; Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Almasri, Nihad A.; Altirkawi, Khalid; Amer, Yasser Sami Abdeldayem; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Anvari, Davood; Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw; Arabloo, Jalal; Arab-Zozani, Morteza; Arefi, Zohreh; Aremu, Olatunde; Ariani, Filippo; Arora, Amit; Asaad, Malke; Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina; Ayano, Getinet; Ayanore, Martin Amogre; Azarian, Ghasem; Badawi, Alaa; Badiye, Ashish D.; Baig, Atif Amin; Bairwa, Mohan; Bakhtiari, Ahad; Balachandran, Arun; Banach, Maciej; Banerjee, Srikanta K.; Banik, Palash Chandra; Banstola, Amrit; Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn; Baernighausen, Till Winfried; Barzegar, Akbar; Bayati, Mohsen; Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad; Bedi, Neeraj; Behzadifar, Masoud; Belete, Habte; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhe, Kidanemaryam; Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth; Bhardwaj, Pankaj; Bhat, Anusha Ganapati; Bhattacharyya, Krittika; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bibi, Sadia; Bijani, Ali; Boloor, Archith; Borges, Guilherme; Borschmann, Rohan; Borzi, Antonio Maria; Boufous, Soufiane; Braithwaite, Dejana; Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich; Brugha, Traolach; Budhathoki, Shyam S.; Car, Josip; Cardenas, Rosario; Carvalho, Felix; Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Castelpietra, Giulio; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cerin, Ester; Chandan, Joht S.; Chapman, Jens Robert; Chattu, Vijay Kumar; Chattu, Soosanna Kumary; Chatziralli, Irini; Chaudhary, Neha; Cho, Daniel Youngwhan; Choi, Jee-Young J.; Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir; Christopher, Devasahayam J.; Dinh-Toi Chu,; Cicuttini, Flavia M.; Coelho, Joao M.; Costa, Vera M.; Dahlawi, Saad M. A.; Daryani, Ahmad; Alberto Davila-Cervantes, Claudio; De Leo, Diego; Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen; Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam; Demsie, Desalegn Getnet; Deribe, Kebede; Desai, Rupak; Nasab, Mostafa Dianati; da Silva, Diana Dias; Forooshani, Zahra Sadat Dibaji; Hoa Thi Do,; Doyle, Kerrie E.; Driscoll, Tim Robert; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Adema, Bereket Duko; Eagan, Arielle Wilder; Elemineh, Demelash Abewa; El-Jaafary, Shaimaa; El-Khatib, Ziad; Ellingsen, Christian Lycke; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Eyawo, Oghenowede; Faris, Pawan Sirwan; Faro, Andre; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Eduarda; Ferrara, Pietro; Fischer, Florian; Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin; Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich; Foroutan, Masoud; Francis, Joel Msafiri; Franklin, Richard Charles; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Geberemariyam, Biniyam Sahiledengle; Gebremariam, Hadush; Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork; Gebremeskel, Leake G.; Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn; Gebremichael, Berhe; Gedefaw, Getnet Azeze; Geta, Birhanu; Getenet, Agegnehu Bante; Ghafourifard, Mansour; Ghamari, Farhad; Gheshlagh, Reza Ghanei; Gholamian, Asadollah; Gilani, Syed Amir; Gill, Tiffany K.; Goudarzian, Amir Hossein; Goulart, Alessandra C.; Grada, Ayman; Grivna, Michal; Guimaraes, Rafael Alves; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Gaurav; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Hall, Brian James; Hamadeh, Randah R.; Hamidi, Samer; Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes; Haro, Josep Maria; Hasanzadeh, Amir; Hassan, Shoaib; Hassanipour, Soheil; Hassankhani, Hadi; Hassen, Hamid Yimam; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hendrie, Delia; Heydarpour, Fatemeh; Hijar, Martha; Ho, Hung Chak; Chi Linh Hoang,; Hole, Michael K.; Holla, Ramesh; Hossain, Naznin; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hu, Guoqing; Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Islam, M. Mofizul; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Ivers, Rebecca Q.; Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Jalilian, Farzad; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jha, Ravi Prakash; John-Akinola, Yetunde O.; Jonas, Jost B.; Jones, Kelly M.; Joseph, Nitin; Joukar, Farahnaz; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Jungari, Suresh Banayya; Jurisson, Mikk; Kabir, Ali; Kahsay, Amaha; Kalankesh, Leila R.; Kalhor, Rohollah; Kamil, Teshome Abegaz; Kanchan, Tanuj; Kapoor, Neeti; Karami, Manoochehr; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassaye, Hagazi Gebremedhin; Kavetskyy, Taras; Kayode, Gbenga A.; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kelbore, Abraham Getachew; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif; Khalid, Nauman; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khalilov, Rovshan; Khan, Maseer; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Junaid; Khanna, Tripti; Khazaei, Salman; Khazaie, Habibolah; Khundkar, Roba; Kiirithio, Daniel N.; Kim, Young-Eun; Kim, Yun Jin; Kim, Daniel; Kisa, Sezer; Kisa, Adnan; Komaki, Hamidreza; Kondlahalli, Shivakumar K. M.; Koolivand, Ali; Korshunov, Vladimir Andreevich; Koyanagi, Ai; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Krishan, Kewal; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kugbey, Nuworza; Kumar, Nithin; Kumar, Manasi; Kumar, Vivek; Kumar, Narinder; Kumaresh, Girikumar; Lami, Faris Hasan; Lansingh, Van C.; Lasrado, Savita; Latifi, Arman; Lauriola, Paolo; La Vecchia, Carlo; Leasher, Janet L.; Lee, Shaun Wen Huey; Li, Shanshan; Liu, Xuefeng; Lopez, Alan D.; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lyons, Ronan A.; Machado, Daiane Borges; Madadin, Mohammed; Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy; Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Maled, Venkatesh; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Manafi, Navid; Manafi, Amir; Manda, Ana-Laura; Manjunatha, Narayana; Mansour-Ghanaei, Fariborz; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Maravilla, Joemer C.; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra; Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard; Maulik, Pallab K.; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Melketsedik, Zeleke Aschalew; Memiah, Peter T. N.; Mendoza, Walter; Menezes, Ritesh G.; Mengesha, Melkamu Merid; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Meretoja, Atte; Merie, Hayimro Edemealem; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Miazgowski, Bartosz; Miazgowski, Tomasz; Miller, Ted R.; Mini, G. K.; Mirica, Andreea; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi; Mithra, Prasanna; Moazen, Babak; Moghadaszadeh, Masoud; Mohamadi, Efat; Mohammad, Yousef; Darwesh, Aso Mohammad; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Mohammadpourhodki, Reza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohammed, Jemal Abdu; Mohebi, Farnam; Bandpei, Mohammad A. Mohseni; Molokhia, Mariam; Monasta, Lorenzo; Moodley, Yoshan; Moradi, Masoud; Moradi, Ghobad; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah; Morawska, Lidia; Moreno Velasquez, Ilais; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Mossie, Tilahun Belete; Muluneh, Atalay Goshu; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Mustafa, Ghulam; Naderi, Mehdi; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Naik, Gurudatta; Naimzada, Mukhammad David; Najafi, Farid; Nangia, Vinay; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Naserbakht, Morteza; Nayak, Vinod; Nazari, Javad; Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith; Negoi, Ionut; Ngunjiri, Josephine W.; Trang Huyen Nguyen,; Cuong Tat Nguyen,; Diep Ngoc Nguyen,; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen,; Nikbakhsh, Rajan; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nnaji, Chukwudi A.; Ofori-Asenso, Richard; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oghenetega, Onome Bright; Oh, In-Hwan; Olagunju, Andrew T.; Olagunju, Tinuke O.; Bali, Ahmed Omar; Onwujekwe, Obinna E.; Orpana, Heather M.; Ota, Erika; Otstavnov, Nikita; Otstavnov, Stanislav S.; Mahesh, P. A.; Padubidri, Jagadish Rao; Pakhale, Smita; Pakshir, Keyvan; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Park, Eun-Kee; Patel, Sangram Kishor; Pathak, Ashish; Pati, Sanghamitra; Paulos, Kebreab; Peden, Amy E.; Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino; Pereira, Jeevan; Phillips, Michael R.; Polibin, Roman; Polinder, Suzanne; Pourmalek, Farshad; Pourshams, Akram; Poustchi, Hossein; Prakash, Swayam; Pribadi, Dimas Ria Angga; Puri, Parul; Syed, Zahiruddin Quazi; Rabiee, Navid; Rabiee, Mohammad; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rafiee, Ata; Rafiei, Alireza; Rahim, Fakher; Rahimi, Siavash; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali; Rajati, Fatemeh; Rakovac, Ivo; Rao, Sowmya J.; Rashedi, Vahid; Rastogi, Prateek; Rathi, Priya; Rawaf, Salman; Rawal, Lal; Rawassizadeh, Reza; Renjith, Vishnu; Resnikoff, Serge; Rezapour, Aziz; Ribeiro, Ana Isabel; Rickard, Jennifer; Rios Gonzalez, Carlos Miguel; Roever, Leonardo; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Saddik, Basema; Safarpour, Hamid; Safdarian, Mahdi; Sajadi, S. Mohammad; Salamati, Payman; Salem, Marwa R. Rashad; Salem, Hosni; Salz, Inbal; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sanabria, Juan; Riera, Lidia Sanchez; Milicevic, Milena M. Santric; Sarker, Abdur Razzaque; Sarveazad, Arash; Sathian, Brijesh; Sawhney, Monika; Sayyah, Mehdi; Schwebel, David C.; Seedat, Soraya; Senthilkumaran, Subramanian; Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba; Sha, Feng; Shaahmadi, Faramarz; Shahabi, Saeed; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran; Sheikh, Aziz; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Jae Il; Shiri, Rahman; Siabani, Soraya; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain; Soheili, Amin; Soriano, Joan B.; Sorrie, Muluken Bekele; Soyiri, Ireneous N.; Stokes, Mark A.; Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M.; Taddele, Biruk Wogayehu; Tefera, Yonatal Mesfin; Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash; Tekulu, Gebretsadkan Hintsa; Tesema, Ayenew Kassie Tesema; Tesfay, Berhe Etsay; Thapar, Rekha; Titova, Mariya Vladimirovna; Tlaye, Kenean Getaneh; Tohidinik, Hamid Reza; Topor-Madry, Roman; Khanh Bao Tran,; Bach Xuan Tran,; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Tsai, Alexander C.; Tsatsakis, Aristidis; Car, Lorainne Tudor; Ullah, Irfan; Ullah, Saif; Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran; Upadhyay, Era; Uthman, Olalekan A.; Valdez, Pascual R.; Vasankari, Tommi Juhani; Veisani, Yousef; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasily; Waheed, Yasir; Wang, Yuan-Pang; Wiangkham, Taweewat; Wolde, Haileab Fekadu; Woldeyes, Dawit Habte; Wondmeneh, Temesgen Gebeyehu; Wondmieneh, Adam Belay; Wu, Ai-Min; Wyper, Grant M. A.; Yadav, Rajaram; Yadollahpour, Ali; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaya, Sanni; Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid; Ye, Pengpeng; Yip, Paul; Yisma, Engida; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Youm, Yoosik; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yousefi, Zabihollah; Yu, Chuanhua; Yu, Yong; Moghadam, Telma Zahirian; Zaidi, Zoubida; Bin Zaman, Sojib; Zamani, Mohammad; Zandian, Hamed; Zarei, Fatemeh; Zhang, Zhi-Jiang; Zhang, Yunquan; Ziapour, Arash; Zodpey, Sanjay; Dandona, Rakhi; Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda; Hay, Simon; Mokdad, Ali H.; Pigott, David M.; Reiner, Robert C.; Vos, Theo (2020)
    Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
  • James, Spencer L.; Castle, Chris D.; Dingels, Zachary; Fox, Jack T.; Hamilton, Erin B.; Liu, Zichen; Roberts, Nicholas L. S.; Sylte, Dillon O.; Henry, Nathaniel J.; LeGrand, Kate E.; Abdelalim, Ahmed; Abdoli, Amir; Abdollahpour, Ibrahim; Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi; Abedi, Aidin; Abosetugn, Akine Eshete; Abushouk, Abdelrahman; Adebayo, Oladimeji M.; Agudelo-Botero, Marcela; Ahmad, Tauseef; Ahmed, Rushdia; Ahmed, Muktar Beshir; Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine; Alahdab, Fares; Alamene, Genet Melak; Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour; Alebel, Animut; Alema, Niguse Meles; Alghnam, Suliman A.; Al-Hajj, Samar; Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir; Ali, Saqib; Alikhani, Mahtab; Alinia, Cyrus; Alipour, Vahid; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed; Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Almasri, Nihad A.; Altirkawi, Khalid; Amer, Yasser Sami Abdeldayem; Amini, Saeed; Amit, Arianna Maever Loreche; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw; Arabloo, Jalal; Arab-Zozani, Morteza; Arefi, Zohreh; Aremu, Olatunde; Ariani, Filippo; Arora, Amit; Asaad, Malke; Asghari, Babak; Awoke, Nefsu; Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala; Ayano, Getinet; Ayanore, Martin Amogre; Azari, Samad; Azarian, Ghasem; Badawi, Alaa; Badiye, Ashish D.; Bagli, Eleni; Baig, Atif Amin; Bairwa, Mohan; Bakhtiari, Ahad; Balachandran, Arun; Banach, Maciej; Banerjee, Srikanta K.; Banik, Palash Chandra; Banstola, Amrit; Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn; Baernighausen, Till Winfried; Barrero, Lope H.; Barzegar, Akbar; Bayati, Mohsen; Baye, Bayisa Abdissa; Bedi, Neeraj; Behzadifar, Masoud; Bekuma, Tariku Tesfaye; Belete, Habte; Benjet, Corina; Bennett, Derrick A.; Bensenor, Isabela M.; Berhe, Kidanemaryam; Bhardwaj, Pankaj; Bhat, Anusha Ganapati; Bhattacharyya, Krittika; Bibi, Sadia; Bijani, Ali; Bin Sayeed, Muhammad Shahdaat; Borges, Guilherme; Borzi, Antonio Maria; Boufous, Soufiane; Brazinova, Alexandra; Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich; Budhathoki, Shyam S.; Car, Josip; Cardenas, Rosario; Carvalho, Felix; Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia, Joao; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Castelpietra, Giulio; Catala-Lopez, Ferran; Cerin, Ester; Chandan, Joht S.; Chanie, Wagaye Fentahun; Chattu, Soosanna Kumary; Chattu, Vijay Kumar; Chatziralli, Irini; Chaudhary, Neha; Cho, Daniel Youngwhan; Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir; Chu, Dinh-Toi; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Constantin, Maria-Magdalena; Costa, Vera M.; Damiani, Giovanni; Daryani, Ahmad; Alberto Davila-Cervantes, Claudio; Demeke, Feleke Mekonnen; Demis, Asmamaw Bizuneh; Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam; Demsie, Desalegn Getnet; Derakhshani, Afshin; Deribe, Kebede; Desai, Rupak; Nasab, Mostafa Dianati; da Silva, Diana Dias; Forooshani, Zahra Sadat Dibaji; Doyle, Kerrie E.; Driscoll, Tim Robert; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Adema, Bereket Duko; Eagan, Arielle Wilder; Eftekhari, Aziz; Ehsani-Chimeh, Elham; Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed; Elemineh, Demelash Abewa; El-Jaafary, Shaimaa; El-Khatib, Ziad; Ellingsen, Christian Lycke; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Endalew, Daniel Adane; Eskandarieh, Sharareh; Faris, Pawan Sirwan; Faro, Andre; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fatahi, Yousef; Fekadu, Wubalem; Ferede, Tomas Y.; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fernandes, Eduarda; Ferrara, Pietro; Feyissa, Garumma Tolu; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin; Foroutan, Masoud; Francis, Joel Msafiri; Franklin, Richard Charles; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Geberemariyam, Biniyam Sahiledengle; Gebre, Abadi Kahsu; Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork; Gebremeskel, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn; Gebremichael, Berhe; Gedefaw, Getnet Azeze; Geta, Birhanu; Ghafourifard, Mansour; Ghamari, Farhad; Ghashghaee, Ahmad; Gholamian, Asadollah; Gill, Tiffany K.; Goulart, Alessandra C.; Grada, Ayman; Grivna, Michal; Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen; Guimaraes, Rafael Alves; Guo, Yuming; Gupta, Gaurav; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast; Hall, Brian James; Hamadeh, Randah R.; Hamidi, Samer; Maria Haro, Josep; Hasan, Mehedi; Hasanzadeh, Amir; Hassanipour, Soheil; Hassankhani, Hadi; Hassen, Hamid Yimam; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hayat, Khezar; Hendrie, Delia; Heydarpour, Fatemeh; Hijar, Martha; Ho, Hung Chak; Chi Linh Hoang,; Hole, Michael K.; Holla, Ramesh; Hossain, Naznin; Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi; Hostiuc, Sorin; Hu, Guoqing; Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Ilic, Irena; Ilic, Milena D.; Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja; Indriasih, Endang; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful; Islam, M. Mofizul; Ivers, Rebecca Q.; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Jahanmehr, Nader; Jakovljevic, Mihajlo; Jalilian, Farzad; Jayaraman, Sudha; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Jha, Ravi Prakash; John-Akinola, Yetunde O.; Jonas, Jost B.; Joseph, Nitin; Joukar, Farahnaz; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Jungari, Suresh Banayya; Jurisson, Mikk; Kabir, Ali; Kadel, Rajendra; Kahsay, Amaha; Kalankesh, Leila R.; Kalhor, Rohollah; Kamil, Teshome Abegaz; Kanchan, Tanuj; Kapoor, Neeti; Karami, Manoochehr; Kasaeian, Amir; Kassaye, Hagazi Gebremedhin; Kavetskyy, Taras; Kebede, Hafte Kahsay; Keiyoro, Peter Njenga; Kelbore, Abraham Getachew; Kelkay, Bayew; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khafaie, Morteza Abdullatif; Khalid, Nauman; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Khalilov, Rovshan; Khammarnia, Mohammad; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khan, Maseer; Khanna, Tripti; Khazaie, Habibolah; Shadmani, Fatemeh Khosravi; Khundkar, Roba; Kiirithio, Daniel N.; Kim, Young-Eun; Kim, Daniel; Kim, Yun Jin; Kisa, Adnan; Kisa, Sezer; Komaki, Hamidreza; Kondlahalli, Shivakumar K. M.; Korshunov, Vladimir Andreevich; Koyanagi, Ai; Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Krishan, Kewal; Bicer, Burcu Kucuk; Kugbey, Nuworza; Kumar, Vivek; Kumar, Nithin; Kumar, G. Anil; Kumar, Manasi; Kumaresh, Girikumar; Kurmi, Om P.; Kuti, Oluwatosin; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lami, Faris Hasan; Lamichhane, Prabhat; Lang, Justin J.; Lansingh, Van C.; Laryea, Dennis Odai; Lasrado, Savita; Latifi, Arman; Lauriola, Paolo; Leasher, Janet L.; Lee, Shaun Wen Huey; Lenjebo, Tsegaye Lolaso; Levi, Miriam; Li, Shanshan; Linn, Shai; Liu, Xuefeng; Lopez, Alan D.; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Lunevicius, Raimundas; Lyons, Ronan A.; Madadin, Mohammed; Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy; Mahotra, Narayan Bahadur; Majdan, Marek; Majeed, Azeem; Malagon-Rojas, Jeadran N.; Maled, Venkatesh; Malekzadeh, Reza; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Manafi, Navid; Manafi, Amir; Manda, Ana-Laura; Manjunatha, Narayana; Mansour-Ghanaei, Fariborz; Mansouri, Borhan; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Maravilla, Joemer C.; March, Lyn M.; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Masoumi, Seyedeh Zahra; Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard; Maulik, Pallab K.; Meles, Gebrekiros Gebremichael; Melese, Addisu; Melketsedik, Zeleke Aschalew; Memiah, Peter T. N.; Mendoza, Walter; Menezes, Ritesh G.; Mengesha, Meresa Berwo; Mengesha, Melkamu Merid; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Meretoja, Atte; Merie, Hayimro Edemealem; Mestrovic, Tomislav; Miazgowski, Bartosz; Miazgowski, Tomasz; Miller, Ted R.; Mini, G. K.; Mirica, Andreea; Mirrakhimov, Erkin M.; Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi; Mithra, Prasanna; Moazen, Babak; Moghadaszadeh, Masoud; Mohamadi, Efat; Mohammad, Yousef; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Darwesh, Aso Mohammad; Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Mohammadoo-Khorasani, Milad; Mohammadpourhodki, Reza; Mohammed, Shafiu; Mohammed, Jemal Abdu; Mohebi, Farnam; Molokhia, Mariam; Monasta, Lorenzo; Moodley, Yoshan; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Moradi, Masoud; Moradi, Ghobad; Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar; Moradpour, Farhad; Morawska, Lidia; Moreno Velasquez, Ilais; Morisaki, Naho; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Mossie, Tilahun Belete; Muluneh, Atalay Goshu; Murthy, Srinivas; Musa, Kamarul Imran; Mustafa, Ghulam; Nabhan, Ashraf F.; Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman; Naik, Gurudatta; Naimzada, Mukhammad David; Najafi, Farid; Nangia, Vinay; Nascimento, Bruno Ramos; Naserbakht, Morteza; Nayak, Vinod; Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith; Negoi, Ionut; Ngunjiri, Josephine W.; Cuong Tat Nguyen,; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen,; Nikbakhsh, Rajan; Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini; Nnaji, Chukwudi A.; Nyasulu, Peter S.; Ogbo, Felix Akpojene; Oghenetega, Onome Bright; Oh, In-Hwan; Okunga, Emmanuel Wandera; Olagunju, Andrew T.; Olagunju, Tinuke O.; Bali, Ahmed Omar; Onwujekwe, Obinna E.; Asante, Kwaku Oppong; Orpana, Heather M.; Ota, Erika; Otstavnov, Nikita; Otstavnov, Stanislav S.; Mahesh, P. A.; Padubidri, Jagadish Rao; Pakhale, Smita; Pakshir, Keyvan; Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra; Park, Eun-Kee; Patel, Sangram Kishor; Pathak, Ashish; Pati, Sanghamitra; Patton, George C.; Paulos, Kebreab; Peden, Amy E.; Filipino Pepito, Veincent Christian; Pereira, Jeevan; Hai Quang Pham,; Phillips, Michael R.; Pinheiro, Marina; Polibin, Roman; Polinder, Suzanne; Poustchi, Hossein; Prakash, Swayam; Pribadi, Dimas Ria Angga; Puri, Parul; Syed, Zahiruddin Quazi; Rabiee, Mohammad; Rabiee, Navid; Radfar, Amir; Rafay, Anwar; Rafiee, Ata; Rafiei, Alireza; Rahim, Fakher; Rahimi, Siavash; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali; Rajati, Fatemeh; Rakovac, Ivo; Ranganathan, Kavitha; Rao, Sowmya J.; Rashedi, Vahid; Rastogi, Prateek; Rathi, Priya; Rawaf, Salman; Rawal, Lal; Rawassizadeh, Reza; Renjith, Vishnu; Renzaho, Andre M. N.; Resnikoff, Serge; Rezapour, Aziz; Ribeiro, Ana Isabel; Rickard, Jennifer; Rios Gonzalez, Carlos Miguel; Ronfani, Luca; Roshandel, Gholamreza; Saad, Anas M.; Sabde, Yogesh Damodar; Sabour, Siamak; Saddik, Basema; Safari, Saeed; Safari-Faramani, Roya; Safarpour, Hamid; Safdarian, Mahdi; Sajadi, S. Mohammad; Salamati, Payman; Salehi, Farkhonde; Zahabi, Saleh Salehi; Salem, Marwa R. Rashad; Salem, Hosni; Salman, Omar; Salz, Inbal; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sanabria, Juan; Riera, Lidia Sanchez; Milicevic, Milena M. Santric; Sarker, Abdur Razzaque; Sarveazad, Arash; Sathian, Brijesh; Sawhney, Monika; Sawyer, Susan M.; Saxena, Sonia; Sayyah, Mehdi; Schwebel, David C.; Seedat, Soraya; Senthilkumaran, Subramanian; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Seyedmousavi, Seyedmojtaba; Sha, Feng; Shaahmadi, Faramarz; Shahabi, Saeed; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran; Shamsizadeh, Morteza; Sharif-Alhoseini, Mahdi; Sharifi, Hamid; Sheikh, Aziz; Shigematsu, Mika; Shin, Jae Il; Shiri, Rahman; Siabani, Soraya; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Sinha, Dhirendra Narain; Smarandache, Catalin-Gabriel; Smith, Emma U. R.; Soheili, Amin; Soleymani, Bija; Soltanian, Ali Reza; Soriano, Joan B.; Sorrie, Muluken Bekele; Soyiri, Ireneous N.; Stein, N. J.; Stokes, Mark A.; Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale; Suleria, Hafiz Ansar Rasul; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael; Tabb, Karen M.; Taddele, Biruk Wogayehu; Tadesse, Degena Bahrey; Tamiru, Animut Tagele; Tarigan, Ingan Ukur; Tefera, Yonatal Mesfin; Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash; Tekle, Merhawi Gebremedhin; Tekulu, Gebretsadkan Hintsa; Tesema, Ayenew Kassie; Tesfay, Berhe Etsay; Thapar, Rekha; Tilahune, Asres Bedaso; Tlaye, Kenean Getaneh; Tohidinik, Hamid Reza; Topor-Madry, Roman; Bach Xuan Tran,; Khanh Bao Tran,; Tripathy, Jaya Prasad; Tsai, Alexander C.; Car, Lorainne Tudor; Ullah, Saif; Ullah, Irfan; Umar, Maida; Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran; Upadhyay, Era; Uthman, Olalekan A.; Valdez, Pascual R.; Vasankari, Tommi Juhani; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasily; Waheed, Yasir; Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay; Werdecker, Andrea; Wiangkham, Taweewat; Wolde, Haileab Fekadu; Woldeyes, Dawit Habte; Wondafrash, Dawit Zewdu; Wondmeneh, Temesgen Gebeyehu; Wondmieneh, Adam Belay; Wu, Ai-Min; Yadav, Rajaram; Yadollahpour, Ali; Yano, Yuichiro; Yaya, Sanni; Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid; Yip, Paul; Yisma, Engida; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Youm, Yoosik; Younis, Mustafa Z.; Yousefi, Zabihollah; Yu, Yong; Yu, Chuanhua; Yusefzadeh, Hasan; Moghadam, Telma Zahirian; Zaidi, Zoubida; Bin Zaman, Sojib; Zamani, Mohammad; Zamanian, Maryam; Zandian, Hamed; Zarei, Ahmad; Zare, Fatemeh; Zhang, Zhi-Jiang; Zhang, Yunquan; Zodpey, Sanjay; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Degenhardt, Louisa; Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda; Hay, Simon; Mokdad, Ali H.; Reiner, Robert C.; Sartorius, Benn; Vos, Theo (2020)
    Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
  • Crowe, Christopher Stephen; Massenburg, Benjamin Ballard; Morrison, Shane Douglas; Chang, James; Friedrich, Jeffrey Barton; Abady, Gdiom Gebreheat; Alahdab, Fares; Alipour, Vahid; Arabloo, Jalal; Asaad, Malke; Banach, Maciej; Bijani, Ali; Borzi, Antonio Maria; Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich; Castle, Chris D.; Cho, Daniel Youngwhan; Chung, Michael T.; Daryani, Ahmad; Demoz, Gebre Teklemariam; Dingels, Zachary; Hoa Thi Do,; Fischer, Florian; Fox, Jack T.; Fukumoto, Takeshi; Gebre, Abadi Kahsu; Gebremichael, Berhe; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin; Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes; Hay, Simon; Chi Linh Hoang,; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy; Kalhor, Rohollah; Kasaeian, Amir; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalilov, Rovshan; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khundkar, Roba; Kisa, Sezer; Kisa, Adnan; Liu, Zichen; Majdan, Marek; Manafi, Navid; Manafi, Ali; Manda, Ana-Laura; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Miller, Ted R.; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Mohammadpourhodki, Reza; Bandpei, Mohammad A. Mohseni; Mokdad, Ali H.; Naimzada, Mukhammad David; Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith; Cuong Tat Nguyen,; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen,; Olagunju, Andrew T.; Olagunju, Tinuke O.; Hai Quang Pham,; Pribadi, Dimas Ria Angga; Rabiee, Navid; Ramezanzadeh, Kiana; Ranganathan, Kavitha; Roberts, Nicholas L. S.; Roever, Leonardo; Safari, Saeed; Samy, Abdallah M.; Riera, Lidia Sanchez; Shahabi, Saeed; Smarandache, Catalin-Gabriel; Sylte, Dillon O.; Tesfay, Berhe Etsay; Bach Xuan Tran,; Ullah, Irfan; Vahedi, Parviz; Vahedian-Azimi, Amir; Theo Vos,; Woldeyes, Dawit Habte; Wondmieneh, Adam Belay; Zhang, Zhi-Jiang; James, Spencer L. (2020)
    Background As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, the age-standardised incidence of hand and wrist fractures was 179 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 146 to 217), whereas the less common injuries of thumb and non-thumb digit amputation were 24 (95% UI 17 to 34) and 56 (95% UI 43 to 74) per 100 000, respectively. Rates of injury vary greatly by region, and improvements have not been equally distributed. The highest burden of hand trauma is currently reported in high SDI countries. However, low-middle and middle SDI countries have increasing rates of hand trauma by as much at 25%. Conclusions Certain regions are noted to have high rates of hand trauma over the study period. Low-middle and middle SDI countries, however, have demonstrated increasing rates of fracture and amputation over the last 27 years. This trend is concerning as access to quality and subspecialised surgical hand care is often limiting in these resource-limited regions.
  • GBD 2017 HIV Collaborators; Frank, Tahvi D.; Carter, Austin; Meretoja, Tuomo J. (2019)
    Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1.95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1.87-2.04) and has since decreased to 0.95 million deaths (0.91-1.01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3.16 million, 2.79-3.67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1.94 million (1.63-2.29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36.8 million (34.8-39.2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65.7% in Lesotho to 85.7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Global Burden Dis Hlth Financing C; Chang, Angela Y.; Cowling, Krycia; Meretoja, Atte; Meretoja, Tuomo J. (2019)
    Background Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4.00% (95% uncertainty interval 3.89-4.12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2.72% [2.61-2.84]) and increased by less than $ 1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5.55% [5.18-5.95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3.71% [3.10-4.34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $ 8.0 trillion (7.8-8.1) in 2016 (comprising 8.6% [8.4-8.7] of the global economy and $ 10.3 trillion [10.1-10.6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$ 5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $ 491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $ 81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $ 40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0.4% (0.3-0.4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10.0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($ 9.5 billion, 24.3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6.27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China's contribution to DAH ($ 644.7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $ 15.0 trillion (14.0-16.0) by 2050 (reaching 9.4% [7.6-11.3] of the global economy and $ 21.3 trillion [19.8-23.1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1.84% (1.68-2.02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0.6% (0.6-0.7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15.7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130.2 (122.9-136.9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125.9 [113.7-138.1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments' increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets.
  • Franklin, Richard Charles; Peden, Amy E.; Hamilton, Erin B.; Bisignano, Catherine; Castle, Chris D.; Dingels, Zachary; Hay, Simon; Liu, Zichen; Mokdad, Ali H.; Roberts, Nicholas L. S.; Sylte, Dillon O.; Theo Vos,; Abady, Gdiom Gebreheat; Abosetugn, Akine Eshete; Ahmed, Rushdia; Alahdab, Fares; Andrei, Catalina Liliana; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Arabloo, Jalal; Arba, Aseb Arba Kinfe; Badiye, Ashish D.; Bakkannavar, Shankar M.; Banach, Maciej; Banik, Palash Chandra; Banstola, Amrit; Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn; Barzegar, Akbar; Bayati, Mohsen; Bhardwaj, Pankaj; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bijani, Ali; Boloor, Archith; Carvalho, Felix; Chowdhury, Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir; Dinh-Toi Chu,; Colquhoun, Samantha M.; Dagne, Henok; Dagnew, Baye; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Daryani, Ahmad; Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda; Forooshani, Zahra Sadat Dibaji; Hoa Thi Do,; Driscoll, Tim Robert; Eagan, Arielle Wilder; El-Khatib, Ziad; Fernandes, Eduarda; Filip, Irina; Fischer, Florian; Gebremichael, Berhe; Gupta, Gaurav; Haagsma, Juanita A.; Hassan, Shoaib; Hendrie, Delia; Chi Linh Hoang,; Hole, Michael K.; Holla, Ramesh; Hostiuc, Sorin; Househ, Mowafa; Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Inbaraj, Leeberk Raja; Irvani, Seyed Sina Naghibi; Islam, M. Mofizul; Ivers, Rebecca Q.; Jayatilleke, Achala Upendra; Joukar, Farahnaz; Kalhor, Rohollah; Kanchan, Tanuj; Kapoor, Neeti; Kasaeian, Amir; Khan, Maseer; Khan, Ejaz Ahmad; Khubchandani, Jagdish; Krishan, Kewal; Kumar, G. Anil; Lauriola, Paolo; Lopez, Alan D.; Madadin, Mohammed; Majdan, Marek; Maled, Venkatesh; Manafi, Navid; Manafi, Ali; McKee, Martin; Meles, Hagazi Gebre; Menezes, Ritesh G.; Meretoja, Tuomo J.; Miller, Ted R.; Mithra, Prasanna; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Mohammadpourhodki, Reza; Mohebi, Farnam; Molokhia, Mariam; Mustafa, Ghulam; Negoi, Ionut; Cuong Tat Nguyen,; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen,; Olagunju, Andrew T.; Olagunju, Tinuke O.; Padubidri, Jagadish Rao; Pakshir, Keyvan; Pathak, Ashish; Polinder, Suzanne; Pribadi, Dimas Ria Angga; Rabiee, Navid; Radfar, Amir; Rana, Saleem Muhammad; Rickard, Jennifer; Safari, Saeed; Salamati, Payman; Samy, Abdallah M.; Sarker, Abdur Razzaque; Schwebel, David C.; Senthilkumaran, Subramanian; Shaahmadi, Faramarz; Shaikh, Masood Ali; Shin, Jae Il; Singh, Pankaj Kumar; Soheili, Amin; Stokes, Mark A.; Suleria, Hafiz Ansar Rasul; Tarigan, Ingan Ukur; Temsah, Mohamad-Hani; Tesfay, Berhe Etsay; Valdez, Pascual R.; Veisani, Yousef; Ye, Pengpeng; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yu, Chuanhua; Yusefzadeh, Hasan; Bin Zaman, Sojib; Zhang, Zhi-Jiang; James, Spencer L. (2020)
    Background Drowning is a leading cause of injury-related mortality globally. Unintentional drowning (International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 10 codes W65-74 and ICD9 E910) is one of the 30 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive causes of injury-related mortality in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. This study's objective is to describe unintentional drowning using GBD estimates from 1990 to 2017. Methods Unintentional drowning from GBD 2017 was estimated for cause-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), age, sex, country, region, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile, and trends from 1990 to 2017. GBD 2017 used standard GBD methods for estimating mortality from drowning. Results Globally, unintentional drowning mortality decreased by 44.5% between 1990 and 2017, from 531 956 (uncertainty interval (UI): 484 107 to 572 854) to 295 210 (284 493 to 306 187) deaths. Global age-standardised mortality rates decreased 57.4%, from 9.3 (8.5 to 10.0) in 1990 to 4.0 (3.8 to 4.1) per 100 000 per annum in 2017. Unintentional drowning-associated mortality was generally higher in children, males and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh accounted for 51.2% of all drowning deaths in 2017. Oceania was the region with the highest rate of age-standardised YLLs in 2017, with 45 434 (40 850 to 50 539) YLLs per 100 000 across both sexes. Conclusions There has been a decline in global drowning rates. This study shows that the decline was not consistent across countries. The results reinforce the need for continued and improved policy, prevention and research efforts, with a focus on low- and middle-income countries.
  • GBD 2017 Childhood Canc Collaborat (2019)
    Background Accurate childhood cancer burden data are crucial for resource planning and health policy prioritisation. Model-based estimates are necessary because cancer surveillance data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. Although global incidence and mortality estimates are available, there are no previous analyses of the global burden of childhood cancer represented in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Methods Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 methodology, childhood (ages 0-19 years) cancer mortality was estimated by use of vital registration system data, verbal autopsy data, and population-based cancer registry incidence data, which were transformed to mortality estimates through modelled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Childhood cancer incidence was estimated using the mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated by using MIR to model survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the difference between the age of death and a reference life expectancy. DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. Final point estimates are reported with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings Globally, in 2017, there were 11.5 million (95% uncertainty interval 10.6-12.3) DALYs due to childhood cancer, 97.3% (97.3-97.3) of which were attributable to YLLs and 2.7% (2.7-2.7) of which were attributable to YLDs. Childhood cancer was the sixth leading cause of total cancer burden globally and the ninth leading cause of childhood disease burden globally. 82.2% (82.1-82.2) of global childhood cancer DALYs occurred in low, low-middle, or middle Socio-demographic Index locations, whereas 50.3% (50.3-50.3) of adult cancer DALYs occurred in these same locations. Cancers that are uncategorised in the current GBD framework comprised 26.5% (26.5-26.5) of global childhood cancer DALYs. Interpretation The GBD 2017 results call attention to the substantial burden of childhood cancer globally, which disproportionately affects populations in resource-limited settings. The use of DALY-based estimates is crucial in demonstrating that childhood cancer burden represents an important global cancer and child health concern. (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.