Browsing by Subject "SHIFTS"

Sort by: Order: Results:

Now showing items 1-18 of 18
  • Lehikoinen, Aleksi (2011)
    Predation affects life history traits of nearly all organisms and the population consequences of predator avoidance are often larger than predation itself. Climate change has been shown to cause phenological changes. These changes are not necessarily similar between species and may cause mismatches between prey and predator. Eurasian sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus, the main predator of passerines, has advanced its autumn phenology by about ten days in 30 years due to climate change. However, we do not know if sparrowhawk migrate earlier in response to earlier migration by its prey or if earlier sparrowhawk migration results in changes to predation risk on its prey. By using the median departure date of 41 passerine species I was able to show that early migrating passerines tend to advance, and late migrating species delay their departure, but none of the species have advanced their departure times as much as the sparrowhawk. This has lead to a situation of increased predation risk on early migrating long-distance migrants (LDM) and decreased the overlap of migration season with later departing short-distance migrants (SDM). Findings highlight the growing list of problems of declining LDM populations caused by climate change. On the other hand it seems that the autumn migration may become safer for SDM whose populations are growing. Results demonstrate that passerines show very conservative response in autumn phenology to climate change, and thus phenological mismatches caused by global warming are not necessarily increasing towards the higher trophic levels.
  • Salo, Emma; Rinne, Teemu; Salonen, Oili; Alho, Kimmo (2015)
  • Guan, Yanlong; Lu, Hongwei; Jiang, Yelin; Tian, Peipei; Qiu, Lihua; Heiskanen, Janne; Pellikka, Petri (2021)
    Variations in climate types are commonly used to describe changes in natural vegetation cover in response to global climate change. However, few attempts have been made to quantify the heterogeneous dynamics of climate types. In this study, based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) runs from 18 global climate models, we used Shannon's Diversity Index (SHDI) and Simpson's Diversity Index (SIDI) to characterise of global climate heterogeneity from a morphological perspective. Our results show that global climate heterogeneity calculated by the SHDI/SIDI indices decreased from 1901 to 2095 at a significance level of 0.01. As radiative forcing intensified from RCP 2.6 to 8.5, the SHDI/SIDI decreased significantly. Furthermore, we observed that the spatial distribution of global climate heterogeneity was significantly reduced, with a pronounced latitudinal trend. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the temperature increase played a more significant role in reducing global climate heterogeneity than precipitation under the three warming scenarios, which is possibly attributed to anthropogenic forcing. Our findings suggest that the dynamics of global climate heterogeneity can be an effective means of quantifying global biodiversity loss.
  • Heylen, H.; Babcock, C.; Beerwerth, R.; Billowes, J.; Bissell, M. L.; Blaum, K.; Bonnard, J.; Campbell, P.; Cheal, B.; Goodacre, T. Day; Fedorov, D.; Fritzsche, S.; Ruiz, R. F. Garcia; Geithner, W.; Geppert, Ch.; Gins, W.; Grob, L. K.; Kowalska, M.; Kreim, K.; Lenzi, S. M.; Moore, I. D.; Maass, B.; Malbrunot-Ettenauer, S.; Marsh, B.; Neugart, R.; Neyens, G.; Noertershaeuser, W.; Otsuka, T.; Papuga, J.; Rossel, R.; Rothe, S.; Sanchez, R.; Tsunoda, Y.; Wraith, C.; Xie, L.; Yang, X. F.; Yordanov, D. T. (2016)
    The hyperfine spectra of Mn-51,Mn-53-64 were measured in two experimental runs using collinear laser spectroscopy at ISOLDE, CERN. Laser spectroscopy was performed on the atomic 3d(5) 4s(2) S-6(5/2)-> 3d(5) 4s4p P-6(3/2) and ionic 3d(5) 4s S-5(2)-> 3d(5) 4p P-5(3) transitions, yielding two sets of isotope shifts. The mass and field shift factors for both transitions have been calculated in the multiconfiguration Dirac-Fock framework and were combined with a King plot analysis in order to obtain a consistent set of mean-square charge radii which, together with earlier work on neutron-deficient Mn, allow the study of nuclear structure changes from N = 25 across N = 28 up to N = 39. A clear development of deformation is observed towards N = 40, confirming the conclusions of the nuclear moments studies. From a Monte Carlo shell-model study of the shape in the Mn isotopic chain, it is suggested that the observed development of deformation is not only due to an increase in static prolate deformation but also due to shape fluctuations and triaxiality. The changes in mean-square charge radii are well reproduced using the Duflo-Zuker formula except in the case of large deformation.
  • Carvalho, Jose C.; Cardoso, Pedro (2020)
    Hutchinson's n-dimensional hypervolume concept holds a central role across different fields of ecology and evolution. The question of the amount of hypervolume overlap and differentiation between species is of great interest to understand the processes that drive niche dynamics, competitive interactions and, ultimately, community assembly. A framework is proposed to decompose overall differentiation among hypervolumes into two distinct components: niche shifts and niche contraction/expansion processes. Niche shift corresponds to the replacement of space between the hypervolumes occupied by two species, whereas niche contraction/expansion processes correspond to net differences between the amount of space enclosed by each hypervolume. A procedure to implement non-continuous trait data in the estimation ofn-dimensional hypervolumes is proposed. Hypervolumes were constructed for three Darwin' finches,Geospiza conirostris,Geospiza magnirostris, andGeospiza difficilisusing intraspecific trait data. Results showed that significant niche shifts, not niche contraction, occurred betweenG. conirostrisandG. magnirostrisin Genovesa island, where they live in sympatry. This means thatG. conirostrisoccupied a different niche space and not a reduced space on Genovesa.G. difficiliswas well differentiated from the other two species. The proposed framework allows disentangling different processes underlying niche partitioning between coexisting species. This framework offers novel insights to understand the drivers of niche partitioning strategies among coexisting species.
  • Heikkinen, Risto; Leikola, Niko; Aalto, Juha; Aapala, Kaisu; Luoto, Miska; Kuusela, Saija; Virkkala, Raimo (2020)
    Climate change velocity is an increasingly used metric to assess the broad-scale climatic exposure and climate change induced risks to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. However, the utility of this metric in conservation planning can be enhanced by determining the velocities of multiple climatic drivers in real protected area (PA) networks on ecologically relevant scales. Here we investigate the velocities of three key bioclimatic variables across a nation-wide reserve network, and the consequences of including fine-grained topoclimatic data in velocity assessments. Using 50-m resolution data describing present-day and future topoclimates, we assessed the velocities of growing degree days, the mean January temperature and climatic water balance in the Natura 2000 PA network in Finland. The high-velocity areas for the three climate variables differed drastically, indicating contrasting exposure risks in different PAs. The 50-m resolution climate data revealed more realistic estimates of climate velocities and more overlap between the present-day and future climate spaces in the PAs than the 1-km resolution data. Even so, the current temperature conditions were projected to disappear from almost all the studied PAs by the end of this century. Thus, in PA networks with only moderate topographic variation, far-reaching climate change induced ecological changes may be inevitable.
  • Hayden, B.; Harrod, C.; Thomas, S. M.; Eloranta, A. P.; Myllykangas, J.-P.; Siwertsson, A.; Praebel, K.; Knudsen, R.; Amundsen, P-A; Kahilainen, K. K. (2019)
    Climate change and the intensification of land use practices are causing widespread eutrophication of subarctic lakes. The implications of this rapid change for lake ecosystem function remain poorly understood. To assess how freshwater communities respond to such profound changes in their habitat and resource availability, we conducted a space-for-time analysis of food-web structure in 30 lakes situated across a temperature-productivity gradient equivalent to the predicted future climate of subarctic Europe (temperature +3 degrees C, precipitation +30% and nutrient +45 mu g L-1 total phosphorus). Along this gradient, we observed an increase in the assimilation of pelagic-derived carbon from 25 to 75% throughout primary, secondary and tertiary consumers. This shift was overwhelmingly driven by the consumption of pelagic detritus by benthic primary consumers and was not accompanied by increased pelagic foraging by higher trophic level consumers. Our data also revealed a convergence of the carbon isotope ratios of pelagic and benthic food web endmembers in the warmest, most productive lakes indicating that the incorporation of terrestrial derived carbon into aquatic food webs increases as land use intensifies. These results, reflecting changes along a gradient characteristic of the predicted future environment throughout the subarctic, indicate that climate and land use driven eutrophication and browning are radically altering the function and fuelling of aquatic food webs in this biome.
  • Spronck, Stef; Casartelli, Daniela Elisabetta (2021)
    We present a first, broad-scale typology of extended reported speech, examples of lexicalised or grammaticalised reported speech constructions without a regular quotation meaning. These typically include meanings that are conceptually close to reported speech, such as think or want, but also interpretations that do not appear to have an obvious conceptual relation with talking, such as cause or begin to. Reported speech may therefore reflect both concepts of communication and inner worlds, and meanings reminiscent of 'core grammar', such as evidentiality, modality, aspect (relational) tense and clause linking. We contextualise our findings in the literature on fictive interaction and perspective and suggest that extended reported speech may lend insight into a fundamental aspect of grammar: the evolution of verbal categories. Based on the striking similarity between the meanings of extended reported speech and grammatical categories, we hypothesise that the phenomenon represents a plausible linguistic context in which grammar evolved.
  • Kotta, Jonne; Vanhatalo, Jarno Petteri; Jänes, Holger; Orav-Kotta, Helen; Rugiu, Luca; Jormalainen, Veijo; Bobsien, Ivo; Viitasalo, Markku; Virtanen, Elina; Nyström Sandman, Antonia; Isaeus, Martin; Leidenberger, Sonja; Jonsson, Per R.; Johannesson, Kerstin (2019)
    Predictive species distribution models are mostly based on statistical dependence between environmental and distributional data and therefore may fail to account for physiological limits and biological interactions that are fundamental when modelling species distributions under future climate conditions. Here, we developed a state-of-the-art method integrating biological theory with survey and experimental data in a way that allows us to explicitly model both physical tolerance limits of species and inherent natural variability in regional conditions and thereby improve the reliability of species distribution predictions under future climate conditions. By using a macroalga-herbivore association (Fucus vesiculosus - Idotea balthica) as a case study, we illustrated how salinity reduction and temperature increase under future climate conditions may significantly reduce the occurrence and biomass of these important coastal species. Moreover, we showed that the reduction of herbivore occurrence is linked to reduction of their host macroalgae. Spatial predictive modelling and experimental biology have been traditionally seen as separate fields but stronger interlinkages between these disciplines can improve species distribution projections under climate change. Experiments enable qualitative prior knowledge to be defined and identify cause-effect relationships, and thereby better foresee alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning under future climate conditions that are not necessarily seen in projections based on non-causal statistical relationships alone.
  • Guan, Yanlong; Lu, Hongwei; He, Li; Adhikari, Hari; Pellikka, Petri; Maeda, Eduardo; Heiskanen, Janne (2020)
    Increases and decreases in the areas of climatic types have become one of the most important responses to climate warming. However, few attempts have been made to quantify the complementary relationship between different climate types or to further assess changes in the spatial morphology. In this study, we used different observed datasets to reveal a dispersion phenomenon between major global climate types in 1950-2010, which is significantly consistent with the increasing trend of global temperatures. As the standard deviation of the area of major climate zones strengthened in 1950-2010, the global climatic landscape underwent notable changes. Not only did the area change, but the shape of the overall boundary became regular, the aggregation of climatic patches strengthened, and the climatic diversity declined substantially. However, changes in the global climatic landscapes are not at equilibrium with those on the continental scale. Interpreting these climatic morphological indices can deepen our understanding of the redistribution response mechanisms of species to climate change and help predict how they will be impacted by long-term future climate change.
  • Pilotto, Francesca; Kuehn, Ingolf; Adrian, Rita; Alber, Renate; Alignier, Audrey; Andrews, Christopher; Baeck, Jaana; Barbaro, Luc; Beaumont, Deborah; Beenaerts, Natalie; Benham, Sue; Boukal, David S.; Bretagnolle, Vincent; Camatti, Elisa; Canullo, Roberto; Cardoso, Patricia G.; Ens, Bruno J.; Everaert, Gert; Evtimova, Vesela; Feuchtmayr, Heidrun; Garcia-Gonzalez, Ricardo; Gomez Garcia, Daniel; Grandin, Ulf; Gutowski, Jerzy M.; Hadar, Liat; Halada, Lubos; Halassy, Melinda; Hummel, Herman; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Jaroszewicz, Bogdan; Jensen, Thomas C.; Kalivoda, Henrik; Schmidt, Inger Kappel; Kroencke, Ingrid; Leinonen, Reima; Martinho, Filipe; Meesenburg, Henning; Meyer, Julia; Minerbi, Stefano; Monteith, Don; Nikolov, Boris P.; Oro, Daniel; Ozolins, Davis; Padedda, Bachisio M.; Pallett, Denise; Pansera, Marco; Pardal, Miguel Angelo; Petriccione, Bruno; Pipan, Tanja; Poeyry, Juha; Schaefer, Stefanie M.; Schaub, Marcus; Schneider, Susanne C.; Skuja, Agnija; Soetaert, Karline; Springe, Gunta; Stanchev, Radoslav; Stockan, Jenni A.; Stoll, Stefan; Sundqvist, Lisa; Thimonier, Anne; Van Hoey, Gert; Van Ryckegem, Gunther; Visser, Marcel E.; Vorhauser, Samuel; Haase, Peter (2020)
    Local biodiversity trends over time are likely to be decoupled from global trends, as local processes may compensate or counteract global change. We analyze 161 long-term biological time series (15-91 years) collected across Europe, using a comprehensive dataset comprising similar to 6,200 marine, freshwater and terrestrial taxa. We test whether (i) local long-term biodiversity trends are consistent among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, and (ii) changes in biodiversity correlate with regional climate and local conditions. Our results reveal that local trends of abundance, richness and diversity differ among biogeoregions, realms and taxonomic groups, demonstrating that biodiversity changes at local scale are often complex and cannot be easily generalized. However, we find increases in richness and abundance with increasing temperature and naturalness as well as a clear spatial pattern in changes in community composition (i.e. temporal taxonomic turnover) in most biogeoregions of Northern and Eastern Europe. The global biodiversity decline might conceal complex local and group-specific trends. Here the authors report a quantitative synthesis of longterm biodiversity trends across Europe, showing how, despite overall increase in biodiversity metric and stability in abundance, trends differ between regions, ecosystem types, and taxa.
  • Santangeli, Andrea; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Lindholm, Tanja; Herzon, Irina (2019)
    Agriculture is a primary driver of biodiversity loss worldwide, and several expensive schemes have been designed to make modern farming landscapes more hospitable for wildlife. One such market-based mechanisms is the agri-environment-climate schemes (AES) in the European Union (EU). AES compensate farmers for reducing land-use intensity and maintaining or introducing biodiversity-rich habitats. Despite their high costs, impacts of AES vary by measure, region and taxonomic group considered, and have rarely been studied over large areas covering an entire country. Here we assess the country-wide impact of several AES measures on bird abundance using citizen science data on birds and detailed information on AES take up from across Finland. We report a positive impact of organic animal farming on abundance of all farmland associated birds. This effect was particularly strong for insectivorous species, species that are associated to farmyards and long-distance species. None of the other AES measures considered for study did show any relationship with bird abundance. Overall, these findings highlight the potential positive impact that some compensatory measures, such as organic animal farming, may have on wildlife. Traditional animal husbandry is based on grazing of animals and restriction on external inputs, similarly to what is stipulated under organic production contract. As such, traditional animal husbandry may represent an effective landscape management tool for restoring or maintaining threatened species and ecosystems in rural areas of the EU. Ultimately, the apparent lack of a measurable effect of the other AES considered here supports the current move towards evidence-based regional targeting of compensatory measures, so as to concentrate scarce resources to where they can yield the highest ecological benefits.
  • Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Linden, Andreas; Karlsson, Mans; Andersson, Arne; Crewe, Tara L.; Dunn, Erica H.; Gregory, George; Karlsson, Lennart; Kristiansen, Vidar; Mackenzie, Stuart; Newman, Steve; Roer, Jan Erik; Sharpe, Chris; Sokolov, Leonid V.; Steinholtz, Asa; Stervander, Martin; Tirri, Ina-Sabrina; Tjornlov, Rune Skjold (2019)
    Climate change has been shown to shift the seasonal timing (i.e. phenology) and distribution of species. The phenological effects of climate change on living organisms have often been tested using first occurrence dates, which may be uninformative and biased. More rarely investigated is how different phases of a phenological sequence (e.g. beginning, central tendency and end) or its duration have changed over time. This type of analysis requires continuous observation throughout the phenological event over multiple years, and such data sets are rare. In this study we examined the impact of temperature on long-term change of passage timing and duration of the spring migration period in birds, and which species' traits explain species-specific variation. Data used covered 195 species from 21 European and Canadian bird observatories from which systematic daily sampling protocols were available. Migration dates were negatively associated with early spring temperature and timings had in general advanced in 57 years. Short-distance migrants advanced the beginning of their migration more than long-distance migrants when corrected for phylogenic relatedness, but such a difference was not found in other phases of migration. The advancement of migration has generally been greater for the beginning and median phases of migration relative to the end, leading to extended spring migration seasons. Duration of the migration season increased with increasing temperature. Phenological changes have also been less noticeable in Canada even when corrected for rate of change in temperature. To visualize long-term changes in phenology, we constructed the first multi-species spring migration phenology indicator to describe general changes in median migration dates in the northern hemisphere. The indicator showed an average advancement of one week during five decades across the continents (period 1959-2015). The indicator is easy to update with new data and we therefore encourage future research to investigate whether the trend towards longer periods of occurrence or emergence in spring is also evident in other migratory populations. Such phenological changes may influence detectability in monitoring schemes, and may have broader implications on population and community dynamics.
  • Westerbom, Mats; Mustonen, Olli; Jaatinen, Kim; Kilpi, Mikael; Norkko, Alf (2019)
    Examining changes in abundance and demographic rates at species distribution margins may provide the first signs of broader species responses to environmental change. Still, the joint impact of space and time have remained relatively unstudied in most marginal regions. In order to examine the influence of climate variability on mussel distribution patterns, we monitored three sublittoral and marginal blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus) populations, spaced along a salinity gradient. Densities and biomasses peaked toward the saltier parts of the study area and showed relatively larger variations toward the low saline edge. Temporally, the areas showed a consistent increase in abundance after a synchronized large-scale recruitment event, which was followed by a decline in population size, occurring much faster toward the very range edge. Salinity, temperature, winter severity, and wave exposure explained most of the spatiotemporal variation in mussel abundances and adults showed positive effects on recruit abundance. We show empirically that the dynamics of edge populations are not driven by large changes in climate variables but that small spatial and temporal changes in key environmental variables have large and non-linear population level effects. Our results also show that fluctuating recruitment is a key factor for population stability affecting the storage potential of marginal populations, which dramatically decrease toward the edge. Our study provides a window into future population patterns and processes that drive marginal mussel populations in an altered sea characterized by rising temperature and declining salinity.
  • Santangeli, Andrea; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Bock, Anna; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Girardello, Marco; Valkama, Jari (2018)
    Climate change is triggering adaptation by people and wildlife. The speed and magnitude of these responses may disrupt ecological equilibria and potentially cause further biodiversity losses, but this has rarely been studied. Species inhabiting human-dominated landscapes may be particularly negatively affected by human adaptations to climate change. This could be, for example, the case of ground-nesting farmland birds, a group of highly vulnerable species that may be impacted by shifts in the timing of mechanical farming operations in response to climate change. Here we aim to explore whether trends in phenology of breeding ground-nesting birds differ from those of farming practices, and whether differences lead to the emergence of phenological mistiming with detrimental consequences to the birds. To achieve our objective, we tan linear mixed effects models using a 38 year dataset on onset of farming practices (i.e. sowing dates) and laying date of two endangered ground-nesting farmland birds (Northern lapwing and Eurasian curlew) in Finland. We found that timing of farming practices advanced slower than birds nesting phenology, with birds progressively starting nesting before fields are sown. These nests are at high risk of destruction from incoming sowing operations. The results highlight the importance of considering human adaptation responses, in addition to those of wildlife, for implementing species conservation in managed landscapes under climate change.
  • Brommer, Jon; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Valkama, Jari (2012)
    Background Climatic warming predicts that species move their entire distribution poleward. Poleward movement of the ‘cold’ side of the distribution of species is empirically supported, but evidence of poleward movement at the ‘warm’ distributional side is relatively scarce. Methodology/Principal Finding Finland has, as the first country in the world, completed three national atlas surveys of breeding birds, which we here use to calculate the sizes and weighted mean latitudes of the national range of 114 southern and 34 northern bird species during three periods (1974–1979; 1986–1989; 2006–2010), each denoting species presence in approximately 3 800 10×10 km2 squares. We find strong evidence that southern species (breeding predominantly in central Europe) showed a latitudinal shift of 1.1–1.3 km/year poleward during all three pairwise comparisons between these atlases (covering 11, 20.5 and 31.5 years respectively). We find evidence of a latitudinal shift of 0.7–0.8 km/year poleward of northern boreal and Arctic species, but this shift was not found in all study periods and may have been influenced by increased effort put into the more recent surveys. Species showed no significant correlation in changes in range size and weighted mean latitude between the first (11 year) and second (20.5 year) period covered by consecutive atlases, suggesting weak phylogenetic signal and little scope of species characteristics in explaining latitudinal avian range changes. Conclusions Extinction-driven avian range changes (at the ‘warm’ side) of a species' distribution occur at approximately half the rate of colonisation-driven range changes (at the ‘cold’ side), and its quantification therefore requires long-term monitoring data, possibly explaining why evidence for such changes is currently rare. A clear latitudinal shift in an assemblage of species may still harbour considerable temporal inconsistency in latitudinal movement on the species level. Understanding this inconsistency is important for predictive modelling of species composition in a changing world.
  • Potvin, Dominique A.; Pavon-Jordan, Diego; Lehikoinen, Aleksi (2017)
    In recent years, ringing recovery records in Europe have been identified as a potential important source of data for assessing the impact of climate change and other long-term changes on wintering population distributions of migrating birds. As with any voluntarily-gathered data, however, there are clear sources of bias that might impact results if researchers are not selective. Conversely, methods that exclude data should not be universally applied without proper assessment of their impact on final results. We examine the specific and seemingly conventional method of excluding data collected from hunted or intentionally killed individuals in studies of winter distributions of migrating European birds, to evaluate whether the exclusion or inclusion of this data does indeed affect the outcome of the analysis. We find that the exclusion of these data is warranted for many species, however may impact the power of statistical analyses unjustifiably for others. Our findings showed that wintering range sizes of species are similar when using data of killed or non-killed birds, although there may be latitudinal differences. Furthermore, we did not find evidence that wintering ranges of investigated 37 species would have moved northwards in general as would have been expected due to climate change. We suggest that rather than a universally-applied method of exclusion, these contributed data should be analyzed in context of the hunting history of the species in question and the time frame being considered, and give guidelines on how to most efficiently utilize this important data resource.
  • Guan, Yanlong; Lu, Hongwei; Yin, Chuang; Xue, Yuxuan; Jiang, Yelin; Kang, Yu; He, Li; Heiskanen, Janne (2020)
    Extensive research has focused on the response of vegetation to climate change, including potential mechanisms and resulting impacts. Although many studies have explored the relationship between vegetation and climate change in China, research on spatiotemporal distribution changes of climate regimes using natural vegetation as an indicator is still lacking. Further, limited information is available on the response of vegetation to shifts in China's regional climatic zones. In this study, we applied Mann-Kendall, and correlation analysis to examine the variabilities in temperature, precipitation, surface soil water, normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), and albedo in China from 1982 to 2012. Our results indicate significant shifts in the distribution of Koppen-Geiger climate classes in China from 12.08% to 18.98% between 1983 and 2012 at a significance level of 0.05 (MK). The percentage areas in the arid and continental zones expanded at a rate of 0.004%/y and 0.12%/y, respectively, while the percentage area in the temperate and alpine zones decreased by -0.05%/y and - 0.07%/y. Sensitivity fitting results between simulated and observed changes identified temperature to be a dominant control on the dynamics of temperate (r(2)= 0.98) and alpine (r(2)= 0.968) zones, while precipitation was the dominant control on the changes of arid (r(2) = 0.856) and continental (r(2) = 0.815) zones. The response of the NDVI to albedo infers a more pronounced radiative response in temperate (r = -0.82, p