Browsing by Subject "SURFACE-TEMPERATURE"

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  • Golub, Malgorzata; Thiery, Wim; Marce, Rafael; Pierson, Don; Vanderkelen, Inne; Mercado-Bettin, Daniel; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Grant, Luke; Jennings, Eleanor; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Schewe, Jacob; Zhao, Fang; Frieler, Katja; Mengel, Matthias; Bogomolov, Vasiliy Y.; Bouffard, Damien; Cote, Marianne; Couture, Raoul-Marie; Debolskiy, Andrey; Droppers, Bram; Gal, Gideon; Guo, Mingyang; Janssen, Annette B. G.; Kirillin, Georgiy; Ladwig, Robert; Magee, Madeline; Moore, Tadhg; Perroud, Marjorie; Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Vinnaa, Love Raaman; Schmid, Martin; Shatwell, Tom; Stepanenko, Victor M.; Tan, Zeli; Woodward, Bronwyn; Yao, Huaxia; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Atkins, Karen; Boegman, Leon; Carey, Cayelan; Christianson, Kyle; de Eyto, Elvira; DeGasperi, Curtis; Grechushnikova, Maria; Hejzlar, Josef; Joehnk, Klaus; Jones, Ian D.; Laas, Alo; Mackay, Eleanor B.; Mammarella, Ivan; Markensten, Hampus; McBride, Chris; Ozkundakci, Deniz; Potes, Miguel; Rinke, Karsten; Robertson, Dale; Rusak, James A.; Salgado, Rui; van der Linden, Leon; Verburg, Piet; Wain, Danielle; Ward, Nicole K.; Wollrab, Sabine; Zdorovennova, Galina (2022)
    Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
  • Meier, H. E. Markus; Edman, Moa; Eilola, Kari; Placke, Manja; Neumann, Thomas; Andersson, Helén C.; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Dieterich, Christian; Frauen, Claudia; Friedland, René; Gröger, Matthias; Gustafsson, Bo G.; Gustafsson, Erik; Isaev, Alexey; Kniebusch, Madline; Kuznetsov, Ivan; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Naumann, Michael; Omstedt, Anders; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Saraiva, Sofia; Savchuk, Oleg P. (2019)
    Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.
  • Junttila, Samuli; Sugano, Junko; Vastaranta, Mikko; Linnakoski, Riikka; Kaartinen, Harri; Kukko, Antero; Holopainen, Markus; Hyyppa, Hannu; Hyyppa, Juha (2018)
    Changing climate is increasing the amount and intensity of forest stress agents, such as drought, pest insects, and pathogens. Leaf water content, measured here in terms of equivalent water thickness (EWT), is an early indicator of tree stress that provides timely information about the health status of forests. Multispectral terrestrial laser scanning (MS-TLS) measures target geometry and reflectance simultaneously, providing spatially explicit reflectance information at several wavelengths. EWT and leaf internal structure affect leaf reflectance in the shortwave infrared region that can be used to predict EWT with MS-TLS. A second wavelength that is sensitive to leaf internal structure but not affected by EWT can be used to normalize leaf internal effects on the shortwave infrared region and improve the prediction of EWT. Here we investigated the relationship between EWT and laser intensity features using multisensor MS-TLS at 690, 905, and 1,550 nm wavelengths with both drought-treated and Endoconidiophora polonica inoculated Norway spruce seedlings to better understand how MS-TLS measurements can explain variation in EWT. In our study, a normalized ratio of two wavelengths at 905 and 1,550 nm and length of seedling explained 91% of the variation (R-2) in EWT as the respective prediction accuracy for EWT was 0.003 g/cm(2) in greenhouse conditions. The relation between EWT and the normalized ratio of 905 and 1,550 nm wavelengths did not seem sensitive to a decreased point density of the MS-TLS data. Based on our results, different EWTs in Norway spruce seedlings show different spectral responses when measured using MS-TLS. These results can be further used when developing EWT monitoring for improving forest health assessments.
  • Karsisto, Virve; Tijm, Sander; Nurmi, Pertti (2017)
    High-quality road condition forecasts are a prerequisite for road authorities to ensure wintertime road safety. Harsh winter conditions can cause problems for traffic not only in countries where snowy winters are common but also in regions where the temperature drops below the freezing point occasionally. This study reports on the evaluation of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute's (KNMI) new road weather forecasting model by comparing it with the Finnish Meteorological Institute's (FMI) road weather model, both run for 321 Dutch road weather stations, four times daily (0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC) during the test period, 15 January-28 February 2015. Road surface temperature forecasts by both models were evaluated against observations. The KNMI model produced slightly more accurate forecasts than the FMI model. The main reason for the difference is probably due to the optimization of the physical properties of the KNMI model for the Netherlands, whereas the FMI model is designed for quite different Finnish wintertime meteorological conditions. However, in general the road surface temperature forecasts were of quite comparable quality.
  • Fang, Keyan; Chen, Fahu; Sen, Asok K.; Davi, Nicole; Huang, Wei; Li, Jinbao; Seppä, Heikki (2014)
  • Omstedt, A.; Elken, J.; Lehmann, A.; Lepparanta, M.; Meier, H. E. M.; Myrberg, K.; Rutgersson, A. (2014)
    We review progress in Baltic Sea physical oceanography (including sea ice and atmosphere-land interactions) and Baltic Sea modelling, focusing on research related to BALTEX Phase II and other relevant work during the 2003-2014 period. The major advances achieved in this period are: Meteorological databases are now available to the research community, partly as station data, with a growing number of freely available gridded datasets on decadal and centennial time scales. The free availability of meteorological datasets supports the development of more accurate forcing functions for Baltic Sea models. In the last decade, oceanographic data have become much more accessible and new important measurement platforms, such as FerryBoxes and satellites, have provided better temporally and spatially resolved observations. Our understanding of how large-scale atmospheric circulation affects the Baltic Sea climate, particularly in winter, has improved. Internal variability is strong illustrating the dominant stochastic behaviour of the atmosphere. The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are better understood. The importance of surface waves in air-sea interaction is better understood, and Stokes drift and Langmuir circulation have been identified as likely playing an important role in surface water mixing in sea water. We better understand sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the coastal zone where sea ice interaction between land and sea is crucial. The Baltic Sea's various straits and sills are of increasing interest in seeking to understand water exchange and mixing. There has been increased research into the Baltic Sea coastal zone, particularly into upwelling, in the past decade. Modelling of the Baltic Sea-North Sea system, including the development of coupled land-sea-atmosphere models, has improved. Despite marked progress in Baltic Sea research over the last decade, several gaps remain in our knowledge and understanding. The current understanding of salinity changes is limited, and future projections of salinity evolution are uncertain. In addition, modelling of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric climate models is severely biased. More detailed investigations of regional precipitation and evaporation patterns (including runoff), atmospheric variability, highly saline water inflows, exchange between sub-basins, circulation, and especially turbulent mixing are still needed. Furthermore, more highly resolved oceanographic models are necessary. In addition, models that incorporate more advanced carbon cycle and ecosystem descriptions and improved description of water-sediment interactions are needed. There is also a need for new climate projections and simulations with improved atmospheric and oceanographic coupled model systems. These and other research challenges are addressed by the recently formed Baltic Earth research programme, the successor of the BALTEX programme, which ended in 2013. Baltic Earth will treat anthropogenic changes and impacts together with their natural drivers. Baltic Earth will serve as a network for earth system sciences in the region, following in the BALTEX tradition but in a wider context. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
  • Lemoine-Rodríguez, Richard; Inostroza, Luis; Falfán, Ina; MacGregor-Fors, Ian (2022)
    Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, which can be mitigated by urban vegetation through shading and evapotranspiration. Nevertheless, there is still a lack of spatially explicit information on the cooling capacity of green infrastructure for most Latin American cities. In this study, we employed Land Surface Temperature (LST) of the Neotropical Mexican city of Xalapa to (1) analyze its Surface UHI (SUHI) compared to its peri and extra-urban areas, (2) to assess the cooling capacity of urban green spaces larger than 1ha, and (3) to evaluate the role of green spaces’ size, shape and their surrounding tree cover percentage (Tc) on green spaces cooling range. We evaluated the cooling range of green spaces and their relationships with green spaces metrics and Tc via a linear mixed-effect model and identify threshold values for the variables at 25, 50, 100, and 200m from the borders of green spaces through Classification and Regression Trees. Xalapa exhibits a SUHI of 1.70 °C compared to its peri-urban area and 4.95 °C to the extra-urban area. Green spaces > 2ha mitigated heat at ~2 °C and the cooling range was influenced by the size of green spaces ≥ 2.8ha and Tc > 21% at 50m and only by Tc surrounding the green spaces at 100m and 200m. This shows that the size threshold of urban green spaces should be complemented with the presence of Tc starting at least 50m to maximize the cooling capacity provided by the green infrastructure. Planning agendas should account for the interaction between the size of green spaces and the cumulative cooling effect of scattered vegetation inside urban areas towards compact green cities to cope with urban warming.