Risner, Victoria A.; Benca-Bachman, Chelsie E.; Bertin, Lauren; Smith, Alicia K.; Kaprio, Jaakko; McGeary, John E.; Chesler, Elissa; Knopik, Valerie S.; Friedman, Naomi P.; Palmer, Rohan H. C.
(2021)
Introduction: Heritability estimates of nicotine dependence (ND) range from 40% to 70%, but discovery GWAS of ND are underpowered and have limited predictive utility. In this work, we leverage genetically correlated traits and diseases to increase the accuracy of polygenic risk prediction. Methods: We employed a multi-trait model using summary statistic-based best linear unbiased predictors (SBLUP) of genetic correlates of DSM-IV diagnosis of ND in 6394 individuals of European Ancestry (prevalence = 45.3%, %female = 46.8%, mu(age) = 40.08 [s.d. = 10.43]) and 3061 individuals from a nationally-representative sample with Fagerstrom Test for Nicotine Dependence symptom count (FTND; 51.32% female, mean age = 28.9 [s.d. = 1.70]). Polygenic predictors were derived from GWASs known to be phenotypically and genetically correlated with ND (i.e., Cigarettes per Day [CPD], the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test [AUDIT-Consumption and AUDIT-Problems], Neuroticism, Depression, Schizophrenia, Educational Attainment, Body Mass Index [BMI], and Self-Perceived Risk-Taking); including Height as a negative control. Analyses controlled for age, gender, study site, and the first 10 ancestral principal components. Results: The multi-trait model accounted for 3.6% of the total trait variance in DSM-IV ND. Educational Attainment (beta = -0.125; 95% CI: [-0.149,-0.101]), CPD (0.071 [0.047,0.095]), and Self-Perceived Risk-Taking (0.051 [0.026,0.075]) were the most robust predictors. PGS effects on FTND were limited. Conclusions: Risk for ND is not only polygenic, but also pleiotropic. Polygenic effects on ND that are accessible by these traits are limited in size and act additively to explain risk.