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  • Fiedler, Stephanie; Kinne, Stefan; Huang, Wan Ting Katty; Räisänen, Petri; O'Donnell, Declan; Bellouin, Nicolas; Stier, Philip; Merikanto, Joonas; van Noije, Twan; Makkonen, Risto; Lohmann, Ulrike (2019)
    This study assesses the change in anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Both decades had similar global-mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depths but substantially different global distributions. For both years, we quantify (i) the forcing spread due to model-internal variability and (ii) the forcing spread among models. Our assessment is based on new ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with five state-of-the-art Earth system models. Four of these models will be used in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016). Here, the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol has been reduced in the participating models. In all our simulations, we prescribe the same patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud droplet number concentration. We calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF). Their difference defines the net contribution from rapid adjustments. Our simulations show a model spread in ERF from -0.4 to -0.9 W m(-2). The standard deviation in annual ERF is 0.3 W m(-2), based on 180 individual estimates from each participating model. This result implies that identifying the model spread in ERF due to systematic differences requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of years. Moreover, we find almost identical ERFs for the mid-1970s and mid-2000s for individual models, although there are major model differences in natural aerosols and clouds. The model-ensemble mean ERF is -0.54 W m(-2) for the pre-industrial era to the mid-1970s and -0.59 W m(-2) for the pre-industrial era to the mid-2000s. Our result suggests that comparing ERF changes between two observable periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to a poorly constrained pre-industrial state might provide a better test for a model's ability to represent transient climate changes.
  • Moller, Kristian H.; Kurten, Theo; Bates, Kelvin H.; Thornton, Joel A.; Kjaergaard, Henrik G. (2019)
    Epoxide formation was established a decade ago as a possible reaction pathway for beta-hydroperoxy alkyl radicals in the atmosphere. This epoxide-forming pathway required excess energy to compete with O-2 addition, as the thermal reaction rate coefficient is many orders of magnitude too slow. However, recently, a thermal epoxide forming reaction was discovered in the ISOPOOH + OH oxidation pathway. Here, we computationally investigate the effect of substituents on the epoxide formation rate coefficient of a series of substituted beta-hydroperoxy alkyl radicals. We find that the thermal reaction is likely to be competitive with O-2 addition when the alkyl radical carbon has a OH group, which is able to form a hydrogen bond to a substituent on the other carbon atom in the epoxide ring being formed. Reactants fulfilling these requirements can be formed in the OH-initiated oxidation of many biogenic hydrocarbons. Further, we find that beta-OOR alkyl radicals react similarly to beta-OOH alkyl radicals, making epoxide formation a possible decomposition pathway in the oxidation of ROOR peroxides. GEOS-Chem modeling shows that the total annual production of isoprene dihydroxy hydroperoxy epoxide is 23 Tg, making it by far the most abundant C-5-tetrafunctional species from isoprene oxidation.