Browsing by Subject "VULNERABILITY"

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  • Pearce-Higgins, J. W.; Antão, L. H.; Bates, R. E.; Bowgen, K. M.; Bradshaw, C. D.; Duffield, S. J.; Ffoulkes, C.; Franco, A. M.A.; Geschke, J.; Gregory, R. D.; Harley, M. J.; Hodgson, J. A.; Jenkins, R. L.M.; Kapos, V.; Maltby, K. M.; Watts, O.; Willis, S. G.; Morecroft, M. D. (2022)
    Impacts of climate change on natural and human systems will become increasingly severe as the magnitude of climate change increases. Climate change adaptation interventions to address current and projected impacts are thus paramount. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness remains limited, highlighting the need for appropriate ecological indicators to measure progress of climate change adaptation for the natural environment. We outline conceptual, analytical, and practical challenges in developing such indicators, before proposing a framework with three process-based and two results-based indicator types to track progress in adapting to climate change. We emphasize the importance of dynamic assessment and modification over time, as new adaptation targets are set and/or as intervention actions are monitored and evaluated. Our framework and proposed indicators are flexible and widely applicable across species, habitats, and monitoring programmes, and could be accommodated within existing national or international frameworks to enable the evaluation of both large-scale policy instruments and local management interventions. We conclude by suggesting further work required to develop these indicators fully, and hope this will stimulate the use of ecological indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of policy interventions for the adaptation of the natural environment across the globe.
  • Chichorro, Filipe; Juslén, Aino; Cardoso, Pedro (2019)
    Biodiversity is shrinking rapidly, and despite our efforts only a small part of it has been assessed for extinction risk. Identifying the traits that make species vulnerable might help us to predict the status for those less known. We gathered information on the relationships between traits and extinction risk from 173 publications, across all taxa, spatial scales and biogeographical regions, in what we think it is the most comprehensive compilation to date. We aimed to identify (1) taxonomical and spatial biases, and (2) statistically robust and generalizable predictors of extinction risk through the use of meta-analyses. Vertebrates and the Palaearctic are the most studied taxon and region because of higher accumulation of data in these groups. Among the many traits that have been suggested to be predictors, only three had enough data for meta-analyses. Two of them are potentially useful in assessing risk for the lesser-known species: regardless of the taxon, species with small range and narrow habitat breadth are more vulnerable to extinction. Contrastingly, body size (the most studied trait) did not present a consistently positive or negative response. We hypothesize that the relationship between body size and extinction risk is shaped by different aspects, namely the phenomena represented by body size depending on the taxonomic group. To increase our understanding of the drivers of extinction, further studies should focus on understudied groups such as invertebrates and fungi and regions such as the tropics and expand the number of traits in comparative analyses that should avoid current biases.
  • Reum, Friedemann; Goeckede, Mathias; Lavric, Jost V.; Kolle, Olaf; Zimov, Sergey; Zimov, Nikita; Pallandt, Martijn; Heimann, Martin (2019)
    Sparse data coverage in the Arctic hampers our understanding of its carbon cycle dynamics and our predictions of the fate of its vast carbon reservoirs in a changing climate. In this paper, we present accurate measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) dry air mole fractions at the new atmospheric carbon observation station Ambarchik, which closes a large gap in the atmospheric trace gas monitoring network in northeastern Siberia. The site, which has been operational since August 2014, is located near the delta of the Kolyma River at the coast of the Arctic Ocean. Data quality control of CO2 and CH4 measurements includes frequent calibrations traced to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) scales, employment of a novel water vapor correction, an algorithm to detect the influence of local polluters, and meteorological measurements that enable data selection. The available CO2 and CH4 record was characterized in comparison with in situ data from Barrow, Alaska. A footprint analysis reveals that the station is sensitive to signals from the East Siberian Sea, as well as the northeast Siberian tundra and taiga regions. This makes data from Ambarchik highly valuable for inverse modeling studies aimed at constraining carbon budgets within the pan-Arctic domain, as well as for regional studies focusing on Siberia and the adjacent shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean.
  • Wirehn, Lotten; Käyhkö, Janina; Neset, Tina-Simone; Juhola, Sirkku (2020)
    In light of the increased focus on climate change adaptation, there is a need to understand when and how adaptation decision-making generates trade-offs. This study presents a novel framework for adaptation trade-off assessments, which integrates (I) two trade-off mechanisms (direct and interactions) and (II) two types of trade-off characteristics (substantive and processual). Perspectives on adaptation trade-offs were collected from 37 Swedish and Finnish agricultural experts through semi-structured interviews supported by serious gaming and visualization. The data were thematically analysed based on the provided analytical framework. The results show that trade-offs in agricultural adaptation decision-making processes involve balancing a number of socio-ecological system aspects that are of different character and have different functions. The study identified 20 aspects generating trade-offs related to adaptation management in Swedish and Finnish agriculture, among which 'crop yield and profitability', 'farm economy', 'pest and weed robustness' and 'soil quality' were discussed as the most prominent by respondents. The framework enables an examination of complex trade-off structures that can have implications for adaptation management decisions. The results show that the identified aspects constitute different components and functions of trade-offs, including both processual and/or substantive ones. In conclusion, the 20 identified aspects and the framework together demonstrate the importance of the two types of adaptation trade-offs and the resulting complexity of climate change adaptation decision-making in Swedish and Finnish agriculture. Furthermore, the study asserts the potential of applying the framework for various strategic contexts-to recognize and cope with trade-offs in adaptation management.
  • Koskinen, Sini M.; Ahveninen, Jyrki; Kujala, Teija; Kaprio, Jaakko; O'Donnell, Brian F.; Osipova, Daria; Viken, Richard J.; Naatanen, Risto; Rose, Richard J. (2022)
    Major depression is associated with alterations in the auditory P3 event-related potential (ERP). However, the persistence of these abnormalities after recovery from depressive episodes, especially in young adults, is not well known. Furthermore, the potential influence of substance use on this association is poorly understood. Young adult twin pairs (N = 177) from the longitudinal FinnTwin16 study were studied with a psychiatric interview, and P3a and P3b ERPs elicited by task-irrelevant novel sounds and targets, respectively. Dyadic linear mixed effect models were used to distinguish the effects of lifetime major depressive disorder from familial factors and effects of alcohol problem drinking and tobacco smoking. P3a amplitude was significantly increased and P3b latency decreased, in individuals with a history of lifetime major depression, when controlling the fixed effects of alcohol abuse, tobacco, gender, twins' birth order, and zygosity. These results suggest that past lifetime major depressive disorder may be associated with enhanced attentional sensitivity.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W.; Jones, Jeremy B.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Bowden, William B.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Epstein, Howard E.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Harms, Tamara K.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Tank, Suzanne E.; Turetsky, Merritt R.; Vonk, Jorien E.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Aiken, George R.; Alexander, Heather D.; Amon, Rainer M. W.; Benscoter, Brian W.; Bergeron, Yves; Bishop, Kevin; Blarquez, Olivier; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Breen, Amy L.; Buffam, Ishi; Cai, Yihua; Carcaillet, Christopher; Carey, Sean K.; Chen, Jing M.; Chen, Han Y. H.; Christensen, Torben R.; Cooper, Lee W.; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; de Groot, William J.; DeLuca, Thomas H.; Dorrepaal, Ellen; Fetcher, Ned; Finlay, Jacques C.; Forbes, Bruce C.; French, Nancy H. F.; Gauthier, Sylvie; Girardin, Martin P.; Goetz, Scott J.; Goldammer, Johann G.; Gough, Laura; Grogan, Paul; Guo, Laodong; Higuera, Philip E.; Hinzman, Larry; Hu, Feng Sheng; Hugelius, Gustaf; Jafarov, Elchin E.; Jandt, Randi; Johnstone, Jill F.; Karlsson, Jan; Kasischke, Eric S.; Kattner, Gerhard; Kelly, Ryan; Keuper, Frida; Kling, George W.; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Kouki, Jari; Kuhry, Peter; Laudon, Hjalmar; Laurion, Isabelle; Macdonald, Robie W.; Mann, Paul J.; Martikainen, Pertti J.; McClelland, James W.; Molau, Ulf; Oberbauer, Steven F.; Olefeldt, David; Pare, David; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Payette, Serge; Peng, Changhui; Pokrovsky, Oleg S.; Rastetter, Edward B.; Raymond, Peter A.; Raynolds, Martha K.; Rein, Guillermo; Reynolds, James F.; Robards, Martin; Rogers, Brendan M.; Schaedel, Christina; Schaefer, Kevin; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Sky, Jasper; Spencer, Robert G. M.; Starr, Gregory; Striegl, Robert G.; Teisserenc, Roman; Tranvik, Lars J.; Virtanen, Tarmo; Welker, Jeffrey M.; Zimov, Sergei (2016)
    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
  • Islam, Mohammad Mahmudul; Islam, Naimul; Habib, Ahasan; Mozumder, Mohammad Mojibul Hoque (2020)
    The present study aimed to map out the current threats and anticipated impacts of climate change on the most important hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha) fishery and the associated fishing communities based on fieldwork in six coastal fishing communities. To collect empirical data, individual interviews, focus group discussions, oral history, and key informant interviews were conducted. To supplement the empirical findings, time-series data of cyclones and sea-borne depressions in the Bay of Bengal were also analyzed. Analysis of secondary data regarding climate change-induced events and regional studies suggested that the biophysical conditions of the Bay of Bengal are likely to be aggravated in the future, potentially causing more frequent extreme events and affecting the livelihoods of coastal fishing communities in Bangladesh. The fisher respondents revealed that the main target hilsa shad fishery is particularly vulnerable to climate change in terms of alterations to migration patterns and breeding and growth performance. The fishers reported constant climate-related risks because they live in seafront locations, exposed to extreme events, and their occupation entails risky sea fishing. Fishers claimed that they often need return to the coast due to unsuitable weather conditions related to cyclones and frequent tropical depressions, which can cause financial losses or even causalities. Such events negatively affect fishers' livelihoods, and wellbeing. To cope with the impacts of climate change the fishers have adopted various strategies at both sea fishing and household levels. However, these strategies only support the fishers in terms of immediate survival; they are not enough for long-term resilience. To improve the resilience of the hilsa fishers, the study argues for the implementation the Small-Scale Fisheries Guidelines (SSF Guidelines), which call for longer-term development goals, including in the immediate relief phase, and rehabilitation, reconstruction, and recovery to reduce vulnerabilities to climate and anthropogenic risks.
  • Käyhkö, Janina (2019)
    Agriculture in the Nordic countries is a sector, where farmers are facing climatic challenges first-hand with little policy guidance on climate change adaptation or climate risk management. Adaptation practices emerging at the farm scale have potentially harmful outcomes that can erode the agricultural sustainability. So far, farm scale decision-making on adaptation measures is scarcely studied, and a thorough assessment of risk perceptions underlying adaptation decision-making is required in the Nordic context to inform adaptation policy planning. In this qualitative case study, the climate risk perceptions of Nordic farmers and agricultural extension officers are examined. As a result, a typology of risk responses is presented, showing three dominant patterns within highly dynamic and contextual adaptation processes at farm scale: risk aversive, opportunity-seeking and experimental. The typology represents the variation within adaptation processes that further stress the need for participatory adaptation policy development in agriculture.
  • Colado, Raquel; Pallarés, Susana; Fresneda, Javier; Mammola, Stefano; Rizzo, Valeria; Sánchez-Fernández, David (2022)
    The climatic variability hypothesis predicts the evolution of species with wide thermal tolerance ranges in environments with variable temperatures, and the evolution of thermal specialists in thermally stable environments. In caves, the extent of spatial and temporal thermal variability experienced by taxa decreases with their degree of specialization to deep subterranean habitats. We use phylogenetic generalized least squares to model the relationship among thermal tolerance (upper lethal limits), subterranean specialization (estimated using ecomorphological traits), and habitat temperature in 16 beetle species of the tribe Leptodirini (Leiodidae). We found a significant, negative relationship between thermal tolerance and the degree of subterranean specialization. Conversely, habitat temperature had only a marginal effect on lethal limits. In agreement with the climatic variability hypothesis and under a climate change context, we show that the specialization process to live in deep subterranean habitats involves a reduction of upper lethal limits, but not an adjustment to habitat temperature. Thermal variability seems to exert a higher evolutionary pressure than mean habitat temperature to configure the thermal niche of subterranean species. Our results provide novel insights on thermal physiology of species with poor dispersal capabilities and on the evolutionary process of adaptation to subterranean environments. We further emphasize that the pathways determining vulnerability of subterranean species to climate change greatly depend on the degree of specialization to deep subterranean environments.
  • Landreau, Armand; Juhola, Sirkku; Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi (2021)
    The assessments of future climate risks are common; however, usually, they focus on climate projections without considering social changes. We project heat risks for Finland to evaluate (1) what kind of differences there are in heat vulnerability projections with different scenarios and scales, and (2) how the use of socio-economic scenarios influences heat risk assessments. We project a vulnerability index with seven indicators downscaled to the postal code area scale for 2050. Three different scenario sets for vulnerability are tested: one with five global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios; the second with three European SSPs (EUSSPs) with data at the sub-national scale (NUTS2); and the last with the EUSSPs but aggregated data at the national scale. We construct projections of heat risk utilizing climatic heat hazard data for three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and vulnerability and exposure data for five global SSPs up to 2100. In the vulnerability projections, each scenario in each dataset shows a decrease in vulnerability compared to current values, and the differences between the three scenario sets are small. There are evident differences both in the spatial patterns and in the temporal trends when comparing the risk projections with constant vulnerability to the projections with dynamic vulnerability. Heat hazard increases notably in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, but a decrease of vulnerability especially in SSP1 and SSP5 alleviates risks. We show that projections of vulnerability have a considerable impact on future heat-related risk and emphasize that future risk assessments should include the combination of long-term climatic and socio-economic projections.
  • Grano, Niklas; Karjalainen, Marjaana; Ranta, Klaus; Lindgren, Maija; Roine, Mikko; Therman, Sebastian (2016)
    The aim of the present study was to compare change in functioning, affective symptoms and level of psychosis-risk symptoms in symptomatic adolescents who were treated either in an early intervention programme based on a need-adapted Family- and Community-orientated integrative Treatment Model (FCTM) or in standard adolescent psychiatric treatment (Treatment As Usual, TAU). 28 pairs were matched by length of follow-up, gender, age, and baseline functioning. At one year after the start of treatment, the matched groups were.compared on change in functioning (GAF-M), five psychosis-risk dimensions of the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS), and self-reported anxiety, depression, and hopelessness symptoms (BAI, BDI-II, BHS). FCTM was more effective in improving functioning (20% vs. 6% improvement on GAF-M), as well as self-reported depression (53% vs. 14% improvement on BDI-II) and hopelessness (41% vs. 3% improvement on BHS). However, for psychosis-risk symptoms and anxiety symptoms, effectiveness differences between treatment models did not reach statistical significance. To conclude, in the present study, we found greater improvement in functioning and self-reported depression and hopelessness among adolescents who received a need-adapted Family and Community-orientated integrative Treatment than among those who were treated in standard adolescent psychiatry. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
  • Räsänen, Aleksi; Lein, Haakon; Bird, Deanne; Setten, Gunhild (2020)
    Community resilience is often assessed in disaster risk management (DRM) research and it has been argued that it should be strengthened for more robust DRM. However, the term community is seldom precisely defined and it can be understood in many ways. We argue that it is crucial to explore the concept of community within the context of DRM in more detail. We identify three dominating views of conceptualizing community (place-based community, interaction-based community, community of practice and interest), and discuss the relevance of these conceptualizations. We base this discussion on quantitative and qualitative empirical and policy document data regarding flood and storm risk management in Finland, wildfire risk management in Norway and volcanic risk management Iceland. According to our results, all three conceptualizations of community are visible but in differing situations. Our results emphasize the strong role of public sector in DRM in the studied countries. In disaster preparedness and response, a professionalized community of practice and interest appear to be the most prominent within all three countries. The interaction-based community of informal social networks is of less relevance, although its role is more visible in disaster response and recovery. The place-based (local) community is visible in some of the policy documents, but otherwise its role is rather limited. Finally, we argue that the measured resilience of a community depends on how the community is conceptualized and operationalized, and that the measures to strengthen resilience of a particular community should be different depending on what the focal community is.
  • Kujala, Heini; Moilanen, Atte; Araujo, Miguel B.; Cabeza, Mar (2013)
  • Vainikka, Anssi; Hyvarinen, Pekka; Tiainen, Joni; Lemopoulos, Alexandre; Alioravainen, Nico; Prokkola, Jenni M.; Elvidge, Chris K.; Arlinghaus, Robert (2021)
    Wild, adfluvial brown trout (Salmo trutta) are iconic targets in recreational fisheries but also endangered in many native locations. We compared how fishing and natural selection affect the fitness-proxies of brown trout from two pure angling-selected strains and experimental crosses between an adfluvial, hatchery-bred strain and three wild, resident strains. We exposed age 1+ parr to predation risk under controlled conditions where their behaviour was monitored with PIT-telemetry, and stocked age 2+ fish in two natural lakes for experimental fishing. Predation mortality (16% of the fish) was negatively size-dependent, while capture probability, also reflecting survival, in the lakes (38.9% of the fish) was positively length- and condition- dependent. Angling-induced selection against low boldness and slow growth rates relative to gillnet fishing indicated gear-dependent potential for fisheries-induced evolution in behaviours and life-histories. Offspring of wild, resident fish showed slower growth rates than the crossbred strains. Strain effects suggested significant heritable scope for artificial selection on life-history traits and demonstrated that choices of fish supplementation by stocking may override the genetic effects induced by angling.
  • Lahnamaki-Kivela, Susanna; Kuhmonen, Tuomas (2022)
    Megatrends (urbanization, digitalization, globalization, climate change, etc.) are mainstream developments that affect most economic activities. These megatrends have varying incidences and impacts on individual entrepreneurs and enterprises, also in farming sector. A farmer can either ignore or try to adapt to or benefit from megatrends. This reaction depends on many things: individuals' futures orientation, management practices, business strategy, sunk costs, the life cycle and type of business, for example. The study explores the association between eight common megatrends and business strategies among a sample of Finnish dairy producers. The analysis is based on survey data from the year 2019 (n = 135) collected among a major Finnish dairy industry co-operative's contract producers. The respondents evaluated the expected impact of the megatrends on their own business within the next 10 years with 5-point Likert-type scale (-2 horizontal ellipsis +2). K-means cluster analysis was utilized to uncover a few basic settings in the association between megatrends and farmers behaviours. After trying out several numbers of clusters, a distinctive three cluster solution was found. Additionally, cluster member profiles were framed with farmers' Likert -scale responses. The analysis indicates that dairy farmers differ in their observation of megatrends. The results confirm that some of the farmers more or less ignore the common megatrends, whereas some other farmers adapt to or benefit from the common megatrends. Supporting farmers' futures consciousness will strengthen their capacities of coping in the changing business environment.
  • Heikkinen, Milja; Ylä-Anttila, Tuomas; Juhola, Sirkku (2019)
    In light of the relatively modest achievements of international climate change governance, high hopes are being placed on global city networks as an essential solution to problems in climate change adaptation and mitigation. The C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, in particular, promotes itself as a network that enables cities to learn from each other in their efforts to confront climate change. Very little is known, however, about what kind of change the network promotes and how transformative the proposed solutions are. We assess the degree of (anticipated) change based on a stratified sample of twelve cities participating in the C40 network, signalled by adaptation and mitigation actions described in their policy documents. Our findings indicate that most proposed measures support the status quo, with the majority of actions focusing on infrastructure and technology, and only a few transformational climate measures are envisaged by the cities.
  • Paljakka, Teemu; Rissanen, Kaisa; Vanhatalo, Anni; Salmon, Yann; Jyske, Tuula; Prisle, Nonne L.; Linnakoski, Riikka; Lin, Jack J.; Laakso, Tapio; Kasanen, Risto; Back, Jaana; Holtta, Teemu (2020)
    Increased abiotic stress along with increasing temperatures, dry periods and forest disturbances may favor biotic stressors such as simultaneous invasion of bark beetle and ophiostomatoid fungi. It is not fully understood how tree desiccation is associated with colonization of sapwood by fungi. A decrease in xylem sap surface tension (sigma(xylem)) as a result of infection has been hypothesized to cause xylem embolism by lowering the threshold for air-seeding at the pits between conduits and disruptions in tree water transport. However, this hypothesis has not yet been tested. We investigated tree water relations by measuring the stem xylem hydraulic conductivity (K-stem), sigma(xylem), stem relative water content (RWCstem), and water potential (psi(stem)), and canopy conductance (g(canopy)), as well as the compound composition in xylem sap in Norway spruce (Picea abies) saplings. We conducted our measurements at the later stage ofEndoconidiophora polonicainfection when visible symptoms had occurred in xylem. Saplings of two clones (44 trees altogether) were allocated to treatments of inoculated, wounded control and intact control trees in a greenhouse. The saplings were destructively sampled every second week during summer 2016. sigma(xylem), K(stem)and RWC(stem)decreased following the inoculation, which may indicate that decreased sigma(xylem)resulted in increased embolism. g(canopy)did not differ between treatments indicating that stomata responded to psi(stem)rather than to embolism formation. Concentrations of quinic acid, myo-inositol, sucrose and alkylphenol increased in the xylem sap of inoculated trees. Myo-inositol concentrations also correlated negatively with sigma(xylem)and K-stem. Our study is a preliminary investigation of the role of sigma(xylem)inE. polonicainfected trees based on previous hypotheses. The results suggest thatE. polonicainfection can lead to a simultaneous decrease in xylem sap surface tension and a decline in tree hydraulic conductivity, thus hampering tree water transport.
  • Landauer, Mia; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Juhola, Sirkku (2018)
    The tourism sector is affected by climate change. Nordic tourism destinations have also experienced changes, such as changing precipitation patterns, lack of snow in winter and shifts in seasons. The sector has to implement adaptation strategies but it is unclear whether the current public climate policy is sufficient to support considering adaptation actions. We reviewed national climate strategies of the Nordic countries from the perspectives of tourism, but excluding the transport sector. We also reviewed Nordic national tourism strategies from the perspective of climate change, particularly the extent to which they address climate adaptation. We found out that the national climate strategies do not pay enough attention to tourism adaptation needs, nor do the national tourism strategies present adaptation actions that tourism actors could consider. To connect these national-level strategies, there is a need to review adaptation actions for tourism within the national adaptation framework supported by research based evidence. Next, by means of Nordic cooperation, guidance for both public and private tourism actors within and across Nordic countries can be provided. This can enhance the competitiveness and resilience of the Nordic tourism supply and contribute to the development of economically, environmentally and socially sustainable tourism in the region.
  • Hakala, Emma; Lähde, Ville; Majava, Antti; Toivanen, Tero; Váden, Tere; Järvensivu, Paavo; Eronen, Jussi T. (2019)
    As the literature on environmental security has evolved and widened, knowledge of the full range of potential consequences of environmental change for different societies remains scattered. This article contributes to a more comprehensive approach to the implications of environmental change by providing a three-level framework of the security impacts. In particular, it will address gaps in knowledge by pointing out the relevance of geopolitical and structural factors behind environmental security impacts. The article will focus on the cases of two countries, Finland and Sweden—both seen as stable, high-income democracies that are well equipped to adapt to climate risks. Yet even under these conditions, preparedness to threat-prevention will not follow without a recognition of the full range of risks, including ones that are linked to socio-economic and geopolitical factors. On the basis of the Finnish and Swedish cases, the article proposes an analytical framework of three categories of environmental security impacts: local, geopolitical and structural.