Browsing by Subject "climate risks"

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  • Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Gregow, Hilppa; Harjanne, Atte; Luhtala, Sanna; Mäkelä, Antti; Pilli-Sihvola, Karoliina; Juhola, Sirkku; Hilden, Mikael; Peltonen-Sainio, Pirjo; Miettinen, Ilkka T.; Halonen, Mikko (2019)
    Climate change adaptation (CCA) policies require scientific input to focus on relevant risks and opportunities, to promote effective and efficient measures and ensure implementation. This calls for policy relevant research to formulate salient policy recommendations. This article examines how CCA research may contribute to policy recommendations in the light of idealized set of knowledge production attributes for policy development in Finland. Using general background information on the evolution of CCA research and a case study, we specifically examine how the set of attributes have been manifested in research serving CCA and discuss how they have affected the resulting policy recommendations. We conclude that research serving CCA can be improved by more explicit reflection on the attributes that pay attention to the context of application, the methods of teamwork and a variety of participating organizations, transdisciplinarity of the research, reflexivity based on the values and labour ethos of scientists and novel forms of extended peer review. Such attributes can provide a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for knowledge production that strives to bridge the gap between research and policy.
  • Venäläinen, Ari; Ruosteenoja, Kimmo; Lehtonen, Ilari (2019)
    Raportteja – Rapporter – Reports 2019:3
    This report deals with projected climatic changes in four areas of operation of the UPM-Kymmene company: Finland, southern Germany, Uruguay and eastern China. The implications of the projected changes for forestry, including forest growth and productivity and possible climate change induced disturbances, are discussed as well. Climate projections have been derived from the output of 28 global climate models. Analyses focus on the RCP4.5 greenhouse gas scenario that represents an alternative of moderately large emissions. Mainly, projections calculated for the period 2040–2069 (relative to 1971–2000) have been examined. All the models analyzed simulate higher temperatures for the future. However, the degree of warming varies quite a lot among the models. For many other climate variables, like precipitation and incident solar radiation, even the sign of the future change can be uncertain. Even so, in the regions examined mean precipitation is more likely to increase than decrease, except for southern Germany in summer and early autumn, Uruguay in Southern Hemisphere winter and spring and China in late autumn. Rising temperatures enhance evaporation and increase drought risks despite modest increases in precipitation. In some seasons, both the intense rainfall events and dry periods are projected to become more severe. In recent decades, forest resources have been increasing in Europe. Especially in Northern Europe, forests have benefitted from the warmer climate and increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. During the coming decades, this positive development may at least partly be cancelled due to potentially increasing disturbances for the forest growth. For example, drought, fire and insect pests may cause damage. The role of forests as a carbon sink is an important aspect in the context of climate change mitigation activities, and vivid discussion on the most beneficial and sustainable use of forest resources is foreseen to continue. If global climate policy proves to be successful, it is possible that future changes in climate will be weaker than those based on the RCP4.5 scenario discussed in this report. However, this requires rapid restrictions of the greenhouse gas emissions globally.