Browsing by Subject "complex system"

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  • Carter, Timothy R.; Benzie, Magnus; Campiglio, Emanuele; Carlsen, Henrik; Fronzek, Stefan; Hildén, Mikael; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; West, Chris (Elsevier, 2021)
    Global Environmental Change 69: 102307
    Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management.
  • Ringsmuth, Andrew K.; Otto, Ilona M.; van den Hurk, Bart; Lahn, Glada; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Carter, Timothy R.; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Monasterolo, Irene; Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Benzie, Magnus; Campiglio, Emanuele; Fronzek, Stefan; Gaupp, Franziska; Jarzabek, Lukasz; Klein, Richard J.T.; Knaepen, Hanne; Mechler, Reinhard; Mysiak, Jaroslav; Sillmann, Jana; Stuparu, Dana; West, Chris (Elsevier B.V., 2022)
    Climate risk management
    COVID-19 has revealed how challenging it is to manage global, systemic and compounding crises. Like COVID-19, climate change impacts, and maladaptive responses to them, have potential to disrupt societies at multiple scales via networks of trade, finance, mobility and communication, and to impact hardest on the most vulnerable. However, these complex systems can also facilitate resilience if managed effectively. This review aims to distil lessons related to the transboundary management of systemic risks from the COVID-19 experience, to inform climate change policy and resilience building. Evidence from diverse fields is synthesised to illustrate the nature of systemic risks and our evolving understanding of resilience. We describe research methods that aim to capture systemic complexity to inform better management practices and increase resilience to crises. Finally, we recommend specific, practical actions for improving transboundary climate risk management and resilience building. These include mapping the direct, cross-border and cross-sectoral impacts of potential climate extremes, adopting adaptive risk management strategies that embrace heterogenous decision-making and uncertainty, and taking a broader approach to resilience which elevates human wellbeing, including societal and ecological resilience.
  • Lahti, Leo; Salojärvi, Jarkko; Salonen, Anne; Scheffer, Marten; Vos de, Willem M. (2014)