Browsing by Subject "confidence"

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  • Kotamäki, Niina; Järvinen, Marko; Kauppila, Pirkko; Korpinen, Samuli; Lensu, Anssi; Malve, Olli; Mitikka, Sari; Silander, Jari; Kettunen, Juhani (Springer, 2019)
    Environmental Monitoring Assessment 191, 318 (2019)
    The representativeness of aquatic ecosystem monitoring and the precision of the assessment results are of high importance when implementing the EU’s Water Framework Directive that aims to secure a good status of waterbodies in Europe. However, adapting monitoring designs to answer the objectives and allocating the sampling resources effectively are seldom practiced. Here, we present a practical solution how the sampling effort could be re-allocated without decreasing the precision and confidence of status class assignment. For demonstrating this, we used a large data set of 272 intensively monitored Finnish lake, coastal, and river waterbodies utilizing an existing framework for quantifying the uncertainties in the status class estimation. We estimated the temporal and spatial variance components, as well as the effect of sampling allocation to the precision and confidence of chlorophyll-a and total phosphorus. Our results suggest that almost 70% of the lake and coastal waterbodies, and 27% of the river waterbodies, were classified without sufficient confidence in these variables. On the other hand, many of the waterbodies produced unnecessary precise metric means. Thus, reallocation of sampling effort is needed. Our results show that, even though the studied variables are among the most monitored status metrics, the unexplained variation is still high. Combining multiple data sets and using fixed covariates would improve the modeling performance. Our study highlights that ongoing monitoring programs should be evaluated more systematically, and the information from the statistical uncertainty analysis should be brought concretely to the decision-making process.
  • Metsämuuronen, Tuua Maria (Helsingfors universitet, 2014)
    The study focuses on the Nepalese 8 grade Mathematics, Nepali language and Social study teachers' confidence to teach their own subject. Every skill, such as teaching skills, brings with uncertainty and insecurity creates a need for security. The aim of the master's thesis is to research how substance knowledge, the teacher's personality, pedagogical knowledge and classroom management, and their components are connected to each other. In addition, has been researched how much personality, pedagogical knowledge and classroom management, explain the teacher's self-perceived competence assurance to teach. Altogether, 1224 of Nepalese teachers responded to the survey. The survey sample was stratified. The questionnaire, teachers were asked to assess their teaching confidence in their teaching subject and its sections, on a scale of 1 to 4. Many studies have been done about teaching and the teacher's impact on learning outcomes. That has been considered as a possible cause of Finnish students' good learning achievements. Since the schools have small differences between them, it is easier to study the teachers and the teaching effect of the student's achievements in a country, where the school differences are considerable bigger. According to Hattie (2003, 2), the teacher effect is 30% of the student learning achievements, in Nepal the corresponding figure is 68% (Acharya, Metsämuuronen and Metsämuuronen 2013, 281 316). The study examined by tree-analysis how personality, pedagogical knowledge and classroom management elements are linked to educational confidence and by regression analysis how much these independent variables explain together the effect of the phenomenon. According to regression analysis, there are age, teaching years, assessment, professional development over the last two years, and the curriculum understanding and using, as well as the school equipment shortages. The study found that the most confident were those teachers who were under the age of 30 teachers; who had teaching experience five years or less; who used the project work as assessment; who experienced that they understood the objectives of the school curriculum, and in addition they experienced to implement it successfully. This study was empirical and explorative work and the results obtained on the regression model shows that the model explains 9.5% of teacher's confidence to teach their own subjects. As regression model explains less than 10% certainty, is the teacher's teaching confidence and competence a good follow-up research object. Another good object would be to compare the self-perceived reliability and the validity of the comparison of the measured whether teachers' own experience of the same qualifications as a measurable skill.
  • Jalava, Janne (2004)
    The overall theme of this work is the explication of Niklas Luhmann's concept of trust and its connections to norms, strangers and care. The luhmannian perspective of trust is discussed from three different viewpoints. First, I study Luhmann's concepts of familiarity, confidence and trust in the context of his systems theory. I present an overview of the functions and meanings of social systems and examine what type of role the theory of trust has in Luhmann's larger system's theoretical thinking. Second, I examine the connections between Luhmann's theory of trust and the traditional theories of trust. I compare his theory of trust to two of his most important influences, Talcott Parsons and Georg Simmel. Third, I extend the discussion of trust to the areas - which Luhmann himself does not handle - of strangers, terrorists and the system of care. By doing this, I expand the limits of luhmannian trust and concretise its usefulness of today's sociological problems. The content of this work can be introduced as follows: First, I will introduce the basic concepts of Luhmann's systems theory: autopoiesis, meaning, communication, evolution and differentiation. Second, I show why trust in particular is of central concern in contemporary social theory and in today's society, and examine the connections between Luhmann's theory of trust and his autopoietic systems theory. The connections between Luhmann's theory of trust and that of Parsons will also be addressed. Third, I specify the concepts of terrorism, stranger and trust in the global age. I study especially the connections between Simmel's and Luhmann's theories of trust as well as show how the growing number of meetings with strangers are affecting today's trust relationships. Last, I examine the concept of care, especially caring for the elderly, from the perspective of Luhmann's systems theory. I consider care as a functional subsystem of society which has gradually been developed over the years in the modern welfare state and outline also Luhmann's organisation theory and specify elements of contemporary care organisations as well as address the connections between Luhmann's theory of trust and the systems-theoretical model of care.