Browsing by Subject "forecasts"

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  • Rajakallio, Maria; Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Muotka, Timo; Aroviita, Jukka (Blackwell, 2021)
    Journal of Applied Ecology 58: 7, 1523-1532
    1. Growing bioeconomy is increasing the pressure to clear-cut drained peatland forests. Yet, the cumulative effects of peatland drainage and clear-cutting on the biodiversity of recipient freshwater ecosystems are largely unknown. 2. We studied the isolated and combined effects of peatland drainage and clear-cutting on stream macroinvertebrate communities. We further explored whether the impact of these forestry-driven catchment alterations to benthic invertebrates is related to stream size. We quantified the impact on invertebrate biodiversity by comparing communities in forestry-impacted streams to expected communities modelled with a multi-taxon niche model. 3. The impact of clear-cutting of drained peatland forests exceeded the sum of the independent effects of drainage and clear-cutting, indicating a synergistic interaction between the two disturbances in small streams. Peatland drainage reduced benthic biodiversity in both small and large streams, whereas clear-cutting did the same only in small streams. Small headwater streams were more sensitive to forestry impacts than the larger downstream sites. 4. We found 11 taxa (out of 25 modelled) to respond to forestry disturbances. These taxa were mainly different from those previously reported as sensitive to forestry-driven alterations, indicating the context dependence of taxonomic responses to forestry. In contrast, most of the functional traits previously identified as responsive to agricultural sedimentation also responded to forestry pressures. In particular, taxa that live temporarily in hyporheic habitats, move by crawling, disperse actively in water, live longer than 1 year, use eggs as resistance form and obtain their food by scraping became less abundant than expected, particularly in streams impacted by both drainage and clear-cutting. 5. Synthesis and applications. Drained peatland forests in boreal areas are reaching maturity and will soon be harvested. Clear-cutting of these forests incurs multiple environmental hazards but previous studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystems. Our results show that the combined impacts of peatland drainage and clear-cutting may extend across ecosystem boundaries and cause significant biodiversity loss in recipient freshwater ecosystems. This information supports a paradigm shift in boreal forest management, whereby continuous-cover forestry based on partial harvest may provide the most sustainable approach to peatland forestry.
  • Partanen, Tero M.; Sofiev, Mikhail (Copernicus Publ., 2022)
    Natural hazards and earth system sciences
    This paper presents a phenomenological framework for forecasting the area-integrated fire radiative power from wildfires. In the method, a region of interest is covered with a regular grid, whose cells are uniquely and independently parameterized with regard to the fire intensity according to (i) the fire incidence history, (ii) the retrospective meteorological information, and (iii) remotely sensed hightemporal-resolution fire adiative power taken together with (iv) consistent cloud mask data. The parameterization is realized by fitting the predetermined functions for diurnal and annual profiles of fire radiative power to the remote-sensing observations. After the parametrization, the input for the fire radiative power forecast is the meteorological data alone, i.e. the weather forecast. The method is tested retrospectively for south-central African savannah areas with the grid cell size of 1.5◦ × 1.5◦. The input data included ECMWF ERA5 meteorological reanalysis and SEVIRI/MSG (Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager on board Meteosat Second Generation) fire radiative power and cloud mask data. It has been found that in the areas with a large number of wildfires regularly ignited on a daily basis during dry seasons from year to year, the temporal fire radiative power evolution is quite predictable, whereas the areas with irregular fire behaviour, predictability was low. The predictive power of the method is demonstrated by comparing the predicted fire radiative power patterns and fire radiative energy values against the corresponding remote-sensing observations. The current method showed good skills for the considered African regions and was useful in understanding the challenges in predicting the wildfires in a more general case.
  • Janssen, Annette B. G.; Janse, Jan H.; Beusen, Arthur H. W.; Chang, Manqi; Harrison, John A.; Huttunen, Inese; Kong, Xiangzhen; Rost, Jasmijn; Teurlincx, Sven; Troost, Tineke A.; van Wijk, Dianneke; Mooij, Wolf M. (Elsevier, 2019)
    Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 36 (2019), 1-10
    Algal blooms increasingly threaten lake and reservoir water quality at the global scale, caused by ongoing climate change and nutrient loading. To anticipate these algal blooms, models to project future algal blooms worldwide are required. Here we present the state-of-the-art in algal projection modelling and explore the requirements of an ideal algal projection model. Based on this, we identify current challenges and opportunities for such model development. Since most building blocks are present, we foresee that algal projection models for any lake on earth can be developed in the near future. Finally, we think that algal bloom projection models at a global scale will provide a valuable contribution to global policymaking, in particular with respect to SDG 6 (clean water and sanitation).
  • Krogerus, Kirsti; Pasanen, Antti (Suomen ympäristökeskus, 2016)
    Reports of the Finnish Environment Institute 39/2016
    Although mining companies have long been conscious of water related risks, they still face environmental management challenges. Several recent environmental incidents in Finnish mines have raised questions regarding mine site environmental and water management practices. This has increased public awareness of mining threats to the environment and resulted in stricter permits and longer permitting procedures. Water balance modelling aids in predictive water management and reduces risks caused by an excess or shortage of water at a mining site. In this study the primary objective was to exploit online water quantity and water quality measurements to better serve water balance management. The second objective was to develop and test mathematical models to calculate the water balance in mining operations. The third objective was to determine how monitoring and modelling tools can be integrated into the management system and process control. According to the experience gained from monitoring water balances, the main recommendation is that the data should be stored in a database where it is easily available for water balance calculations. For real-time simulations, online measurements should be available from strategically defined positions in the mine site. Groundwater may also act as a source or sink with respect to mine site surface water, and therefore monitoring and investigations should be designed to account for the full water balance. In Finland it is possible to calculate water balance for planning or for operative purposes by using the Watershed Simulation and Forecasting System (WSFS) developed at the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE). This system covers every sub-basin (10-50 km2) over the whole of Finland. WSFS automatically obtains the latest observations of temperature, precipitation, water level, discharge and other needed data provided by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), SYKE, as well as other sources. The system also uses these observations to follow-up on simulation and forecasting accuracy. The water balance model was further developed to simulate and forecast the water balance at the Yara Siilinjärvi mine site. The WSFS-model was also extended with one-way coupling to the groundwater flow model. The model is operated via a web-based user interface and can produce water-balance forecasts automatically, if necessary, several times a day. The water balance and water flow in the area are simulated using real-time weather observations. The model enables forecasting water levels and planning discharges and pumping at the mine site. Possible uses of the model include preparation for spring floods by emptying ponds for storage of water from snow melt, estimation of the effect of heavy rainfall and calculating the required outflow from the mine site reservoir. Thus, overflows and dam-breaks can be avoided and consequently prevent the leakage of contaminated water. Furthermore, as the model can be modified to simulate changes at the mine site, it can also be beneficial during the mine site-planning process. The water balance model is currently operational for Yara Siilinjärvi mine site and hydrological forecasts are produced on a daily basis. Water level, discharge and pumping data, essential for modelling the area, are provided by the mine operator and EHP-Tekniikka Ltd. The model uses meteorological observations and forecasts from FMI as inputs for the simulations and forecasts. In addition to the accurate weather forecasts, the real time observations are a key factor in the accuracy of the model forecasts. GoldSim is the most popular commercial simulation software solution chosen, not only by mines worldwide, but also in many other sectors. One of the main reasons for its extensive use is its versatility and the ability to expand the program as the needs of the mine require. As the mine project progresses, one of GoldSim’s strongest assets is risk analysis at different phases during both the planning and execution of mine operations. The use of the GoldSim platform was tested during the project and some new features were developed. The project has paid special attention to commercialization of the developed products and well thought out policies for possible joint bids.
  • Huuki, Hannu; Karhinen, Santtu; Böök, Herman; Lindfors, Anders V.; Kopsakangas-Savolainen, Maria; Svento, Rauli (Elsevier, 2020)
    Journal of Energy Storage 28 (2020), 101202
    Intermittent renewable energy generation, which is determined by weather conditions, is increasing in power markets. The efficient integration of these energy sources calls for flexible participants in smart power grids. It has been acknowledged that a large, underutilized, flexible resource lies on the consumer side of electricity generation. Despite the recently increasing interest in demand flexibility, there is a gap in the literature concerning the incentives for consumers to offer their flexible energy to power markets. In this paper, we examine a virtual power plant concept, which simultaneously optimizes the response of controllable electric hot water heaters to solar power forecast error imbalances. Uncertainty is included in the optimization in terms of solar power day-ahead forecast errors and balancing power market conditions. We show that including solar power imbalance minimization in the target function changes the optimal hot water heating profile such that more electricity is used during the daytime. The virtual power plant operation decreases solar power imbalances by 5–10% and benefits the participating households by 4.0–7.5 € in extra savings annually. The results of this study indicate that with the number of participating households, while total profits increase, marginal revenues decrease.