Browsing by Subject "future"

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  • Hampf, Anders; Lindberg-Repo, Kirsti (Hanken School of Economics, 2011)
    Working Paper - 556
    Branding, as any other concept, has evolved over time: from the days when sheep of one herd started to be branded to distinguish them from another herd to the current era when everything, from water and flowers to clothes and food, is branded. Throughout these times, there have been numerous theories to describe and understand the underlying nuances. This paper finds the relationships in previous literature and reveals how these theories see branding from various perspectives and how they can be integrated to form a coherent view. It is also discussed how branding and society affect each other. Based on the knowledge of how branding theories have been developed as dependent variables of each other and the society, we are able to form a better understanding of the past, the present, and the future of branding.
  • Meier, H. E. Markus; Kniebusch, Madline; Dieterich, Christian; Gröger, Matthias; Zorita, Eduardo; Elmgren, Ragnar; Myrberg, Kai; Ahola, Markus P.; Bartosova, Alena; Bonsdorff, Erik; Börgel, Florian; Capell, Rene; Carlén, Ida; Carlund, Thomas; Carstensen, Jacob; Christensen, Ole B.; Dierschke, Volker; Frauen, Claudia; Frederiksen, Morten; Gaget, Elie; Galatius, Anders; Haapala, Jari J.; Halkka, Antti; Hugelius, Gustaf; Hünicke, Birgit; Jaagus, Jaak; Jüssi, Mart; Käyhkö, Jukka; Kirchner, Nina; Kjellström, Erik; Kulinski, Karol; Lehmann, Andreas; Lindström, Göran; May, Wilhelm; Miller, Paul A.; Mohrholz, Volker; Müller-Karulis, Bärbel; Pavón-Jordán, Diego; Quante, Markus; Reckermann, Marcus; Rutgersson, Anna; Savchuk, Oleg P.; Stendel, Martin; Tuomi, Laura; Viitasalo, Markku; Weisse, Ralf; Zhang, Wenyan (Copernicus GmbH, 2022)
    Earth System Dynamics
    Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.
  • Särkijärvi, Anu (Helsingfors universitet, 1999)
    The purpose of the research was to study how Finnish lower-stage schools participating in the international network of UNESCO schools, also called the Associated Schools Project (ASP), prepare their students for the future at the level of their school-based curriculums. In the research, the future trends were discussed, and the importance of their consideration in educational practice was explained from a global viewpoint: Based on the examination of today's problematic world state, and development trends characterized by globalization, the challenges and demands set for schooling and education in the future were discussed. Understanding the significance of an individual's action and responsibility was considered to be the central resource for building a more just and sustainable future. The study was grounded on a theoretical model developed by the researcher, which combined the models of Dalin & Rust (1996) and UNESCO (Delors et al. 1996) about future-oriented learning. The model consists of four basic elements of curriculum; "Nature", "Culture", "Myself", and "Others", and four dimension of learning; "Learning to know", "Learning to do", "Learning to live together" and "Learning to be". The model represents the holistic aspect of educational theory, and its aim is to maintain a balance between its different components. The research material composed of ten lower-stage UNESCO schools' school-based curriculums. They were analyzed using the theoretical model by the methology of content analysis. The research results were notably consistent between the different schools. They showed cultural learning and learning concerned with "myself" to be clearly more emphasized than learning referring to nature and other people. In addition, they reflected the central position of subjects, knowledge and skills, thus leaving the development of the pupils' personalities, and particularly learning concerned with living with other people, in a marginal role. The question about whether the schools prepare for the future interms of their curriculums, was discussed in the light of the results. The research offered a way and a model to approach the relationship between education and the future, and to evaluate schools' future-orientation. Based on the results, the schools are suggested to lay more stress on learning concerned with nature and other people, and focus more on developing the mental capasities of their pupils and competencies they need for living with other people. Above all, what the present societies require of schools is education which produces balanced and broadly aware human beings who have the mental strength to face the challenges of the future and abilities to direct it along the lines they desire.
  • Hyytiäinen, Kari; Kolehmainen, Liisa; Amelung, Bas; Kok, Kasper; Lonkila, Kirsi-Marja; Malve, Olli; Similä, Jukka; Sokero, Mikael; Zandersen, Marianne (Elsevier BV, 2022)
    Futures
    This paper offers an approach to long-term planning for an industrial sector that is sensitive to climate change, the state of adjacent natural environments and the associated socioeconomic developments. The paper combines exploratory and target-seeking scenarios to understand the future challenges of nature-based blue tourism under alternative global futures, and to develop sequences of actions to accomplish the best achievable future outcome for blue tourism at a local scale. We detail a bottom-up approach to scenario development for tourism, with local stake- holders developing local scenarios within the boundaries provided by the locally extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), widely used in climate research. As a demonstration of the approach, a group of invited stakeholders developed locally extended scenario narratives and the adaptation plans for blue tourism for coastal areas surrounding the Helsinki metropolitan area in Finland. The co-creation process yielded several recommendations for immediate action con- cerning protection of the coastal environments, land use planning, internal communication with the sector and coordinated monitoring of economic, ecological, social and cultural sustainability indicators. The approach offers a way forward for systematically assessing the future risks and opportunities that a changing environment and society create for blue tourism.
  • Cosens, Barbara; Ruhl, J. B.; Soininen, Niko; Gunderson, Lance; Belinskij, Antti; Blenckner, Thorsten; Camacho, Alejandro E.; Chaffin, Brian C.; Craig, Robin Kundis; Doremus, Holly; Glicksman, Robert; Heiskanen, Anna-Stiina; Larson, Rhett; Similä, Jukka (National Academy of Sciences, 2021)
    Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Sep 2021, 118 (36) e2102798118
    The speed and uncertainty of environmental change in the Anthropocene challenge the capacity of coevolving social–ecological–technological systems (SETs) to adapt or transform to these changes. Formal government and legal structures further constrain the adaptive capacity of our SETs. However, new, self-organized forms of adaptive governance are emerging at multiple scales in natural resource-based SETs. Adaptive governance involves the private and public sectors as well as formal and informal institutions, self-organized to fill governance gaps in the traditional roles of states. While new governance forms are emerging, they are not yet doing so rapidly enough to match the pace of environmental change. Furthermore, they do not yet possess the legitimacy or capacity needed to address disparities between the winners and losers from change. These emergent forms of adaptive governance appear to be particularly effective in managing complexity. We explore governance and SETs as coevolving complex systems, focusing on legal systems to understand the potential pathways and obstacles to equitable adaptation. We explore how governments may facilitate the emergence of adaptive governance and promote legitimacy in both the process of governance despite the involvement of nonstate actors, and its adherence to democratic values of equity and justice. To manage the contextual nature of the results of change in complex systems, we propose the establishment of long-term study initiatives for the coproduction of knowledge, to accelerate learning and synergize interactions between science and governance and to foster public science and epistemic communities dedicated to navigating transitions to more just, sustainable, and resilient futures.
  • Patomäki, Heikki (2020)
    The question I raise is whether the basic features of mind, social categories, and society are unchanging or changing. Some understandings of ontology would seem to suggest that social ontology is a branch of metaphysics. However, as the history of concepts such as metaphysical and ontology indicate, our concepts and knowledge are historical. It is widely held that society is concept‐ and activity‐dependent. I examine critically two strands of social ontology in terms of their answers to this problematic: (1) John Searle’s theory of the construction of social reality and (2) critical realist theory of mind and society as interlaced emergent layers of reality. Apart from emergence in natural systems, there is also emergence beyond nature as consciousness, agency and society cannot be completely explained in terms of biological realities; but how and when did this emergence occur? We need an account of the emergent order of language, reflectively conscious mind, and institutions not only for its own sake, but also because the process whereby new objects and properties emerge may be on‐going, path‐dependent, diverse, and open‐ended. The main argument is that the object of study of social theorists is geo‐historically specific, liable to diversity within any given world‐historical epoch, and open to further changes and new forms of emergence in the future.
  • Patomäki, Heikki Olavi (2019)
    The purpose of the contemporary university has been redefined across the world in terms of success in global competition, usefulness for moneymaking, and efficiency, meaning application of New Public Management ideas. My aim is to sketch an alternative and future-oriented ethico-political conception of the university to serve counterhegemonic purposes. First I discuss briefly the Humboldtian myth and legacy. Second, I summarize Jürgen Habermas’s analysis of the historical and practical limits of the idea of the university. Third, in response to Habermas’s criticism, I outline a nonspeculative, scientific realist way of understanding the unity of all sciences and humanities. Fourth, I locate the idea of the university in the twenty-first century global context, understood in part as world risk society. And finally, I argue that the autonomy of the university should be anchored in the rules, principles and institutional arrangements of multi-spatial metagovernance, rather than just those of territorial states. The future of the university calls for new cosmopolitan institutional solutions and world citizenship.
  • Kämäri, Maria; Alho, Petteri; Veijalainen, Noora; Aaltonen, Juha; Huokuna, Mikko; Lotsari, Eliisa (2015)
    Hydrological Processes 29(22): 4738–4755
    A large number of rivers are frozen annually and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice-free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in SW Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydro-climatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice-free river with similar discharges. Based on long-term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice-free and ice-covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77 % on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future.
  • Grant, Danielle M.; Brodnicke, Ole Bjørn; Evankow, Ann M.; Ferreira, André O.; Fontes, João T.; Hansen, Aslak Kappel; Jensen, Mads Reinholdt; Kalaycı, Tuğba Ergül; Leeper, Alexandra; Patil, Shalaka Kiran; Prati, Sebastian; Reunamo, Anna; Roberts, Aradhana J.; Shigdel, Rajesh; Tyukosova, Valentina; Bendiksby, Mika; Blaalid, Rakel; Costa, Filipe O.; Hollingsworth, Peter M.; Stur, Elisabeth; Ekrem, Torbjørn (MDPI, 2021)
    Diversity 2021, 13(7), 313
    Over the last two decades, the use of DNA barcodes has transformed our ability to identify and assess life on our planet. Both strengths and weaknesses of the method have been exemplified through thousands of peer-reviewed scientific articles. Given the novel sequencing approaches, currently capable of generating millions of reads at low cost, we reflect on the questions: What will the future bring for DNA barcoding? Will identification of species using short, standardized fragments of DNA stand the test of time? We present reflected opinions of early career biodiversity researchers in the form of a SWOT analysis and discuss answers to these questions.
  • Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C.; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J.; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frederic; Neumayer, Johann; Odegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P. T.; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P. M.; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas (2018)
    Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% +/- 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% +/- 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.