Browsing by Subject "hydrology"

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  • Bhattacharjee, Joy; Rabbil, Mehedi; Fazel, Nasim; Darabi, Hamid; Choubin, Bahram; Khan, Md. Motiur Rahman; Marttila, Hannu; Haghighi, Ali Torabi (Elsevier, 2021)
    Science of the Total Environment 797 (2021), 149034
    Lake water level fluctuation is a function of hydro-meteorological components, namely input, and output to the system. The combination of these components from in-situ and remote sensing sources has been used in this study to define multiple scenarios, which are the major explanatory pathways to assess lake water levels. The goal is to analyze each scenario through the application of the water balance equation to simulate lake water levels. The largest lake in Iran, Lake Urmia, has been selected in this study as it needs a great deal of attention in terms of water management issues. We ran a monthly water balance simulation of nineteen scenarios for Lake Urmia from 2003 to 2007 by applying different combinations of data, including observed and remotely sensed water level, flow, evaporation, and rainfall. We used readily available water level data from Hydrosat, Hydroweb, and DAHITI platforms; evapotranspiration from MODIS and rainfall from TRMM. The analysis suggests that the consideration of field data in the algorithm as the initial water level can reproduce the fluctuation of Lake Urmia water level in the best way. The scenario that combines in-situ meteorological components is the closest match to the observed water level of Lake Urmia. Almost all scenarios showed good dynamics with the field water level, but we found that nine out of nineteen scenarios did not vary significantly in terms of dynamics. The results also reveal that, even without any field data, the proposed scenario, which consists entirely of remote sensing components, is capable of estimating water level fluctuation in a lake. The analysis also explains the necessity of using proper data sources to act on water regulations and managerial decisions to understand the temporal phenomenon not only for Lake Urmia but also for other lakes in semi-arid regions.
  • Rolls, Robert J.; Chessman, Bruce C.; Heino, Jani; Wolfenden, Ben; Thurtell, Lisa A.; Cheshire, Katherine J. M.; Ryan, David; Butler, Gavin; Growns, Ivor; Curwen, Graeme (Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022)
    Landscape Ecology
    Context A core theme in ecohydrology is understanding how hydrology affects spatial variation in the composition of species assemblages (i.e., beta diversity). However, most empirical evidence is from research in upland rivers spanning small spatial extents. Relatively little is known of the consequences of hydrological variation for beta diversity across multiple spatial scales in lowland rivers. Objectives We sought to examine how spatial variation in hydrology and fish beta diversity within and among rivers changed over time in response to intensification and cessation of hydrological drought. Methods We used monitoring data of fish assemblages, coupled with hydrological and biophysical data, to test how spatial variation in hydrology and multiple components of fish beta diversity in lowland rivers of the Murray—Darling Basin (Australia) varied across spatial scales during contrasting hydrological phases. Results Spatial variation in hydrology among rivers declined with increasing duration of drought before increasing during a return to above-average flows. Spatial variation in hydrology within rivers did not show consistent changes between hydrological phases. Beta diversity among and within rivers showed variable, river-specific changes among hydrological phases for both incidence- and abundance-based components of assemblage composition. Conclusions Inconsistent hydrology—beta diversity patterns found here suggest that mechanisms and outcomes of drought and flooding impacts to beta diversity are context-dependent and not broadly generalisable. Our findings indicate that hydrological fluctuations occurring in the Murray—Darling Basin in the period analysed here did not cause significant or consistent homogenisation or differentiation of freshwater fish assemblages.
  • Shuku, Takayuki; Ropponen, Janne; Juntunen, Janne; Suito, Hiroshi (Springer., 2022)
    Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
    This study presents a data-driven model of the local wind field over two small lakes in Jyväskylä, Finland. Five temporary monitoring stations installed during the summers of 2015 and 2016 observed wind speed/direction around the two lakes. In addition, an official meteorological station located 15 km north of the lakes is permanently available. Our goal was to develop a model that could evaluate wind speed and direction over the two lakes using only data from the permanent station. Statistical analysis for the spatio-temporal wind data revealed that (1) local wind speed is correlated with the elevation and its cyclic pattern is identical to that of the official-station data, and (2) the local wind direction field is spatially homogeneous and is strongly correlated with the official-station data. Based on these results, we built two regression models for estimating spatial distribution of local wind speed and directions based on the digital elevation model (DEM) and official-station data. We compared the predicted wind speeds/directions by the proposed model with the corresponding observation data and a numerical result for model validation. We found that the proposed model could effectively simulate heterogeneous local wind fields and considers uncertainty of estimates.
  • Freitas, Aline A.; Drumond, Anita; Carvalho, Vanessa S. B.; Reboita, Michelle S.; Silva, Benedito C.; Uvo, Cintia B. (MDPI AG, 2022)
    Atmosphere
    The São Francisco River Basin (SFRB) is one of the main watersheds in Brazil, standing out for generating energy and consumption, among other ecosystem services. Hence, it is important to identify hydrological drought events and the anomalous climate patterns associated with dry conditions. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) for 12 months was used to identify hydrological drought episodes over SFRB 1979 and 2020. For these episodes, the severity, duration, intensity, and peak were obtained, and SPI-1 was applied for the longest and most severe episode to identify months with wet and dry conditions within the rainy season (Nov–Mar). Anomalous atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with this episode were also analyzed. The results revealed the longest and most severe hydrological drought episode over the basin occurred between 2012 and 2020. The episode over the Upper portion of the basin lasted 103 months. The results showed a deficit of monthly precipitation up to 250 mm in the southeast and northeast regions of the country during the anomalous dry months identified through SPI-1. The dry conditions observed during the rainy season of this episode were associated with an anomalous high-pressure system acting close to the coast of Southeast Brazil, hindering the formation of precipitating systems.
  • Shu, Song; Liu, Hongxing; Beck, Richard A.; Frappart, Frédéric; Korhonen, Johanna; Lan, Minxuan; Xu, Min; Yang, Bo; Huang, Yan (Copernicus Publications / European Geosciences Union, 2021)
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 25:3
    A total of 13 satellite missions have been launched since 1985, with different types of radar altimeters on board. This study intends to make a comprehensive evaluation of historic and currently operational satellite radar altimetry missions for lake water level retrieval over the same set of lakes and to develop a strategy for constructing consistent long-term water level records for inland lakes at global scale. The lake water level estimates produced by different retracking algorithms (retrackers) of the satellite missions were compared with the gauge measurements over 12 lakes in four countries. The performance of each retracker was assessed in terms of the data missing rate, the correlation coefficient r, the bias, and the root mean square error (RMSE) between the altimetry-derived lake water level estimates and the concurrent gauge measurements. The results show that the model-free retrackers (e.g., OCOG/Ice-1/Ice) outperform the model-based retrackers for most of the missions, particularly over small lakes. Among the satellite altimetry missions, Sentinel-3 gave the best results, followed by SARAL. ENVISAT has slightly better lake water level estimates than Jason-1 and Jason-2, but its data missing rate is higher. For small lakes, ERS-1 and ERS-2 missions provided more accurate lake water level estimates than the TOPEX/Poseidon mission. In contrast, for large lakes, TOPEX/Poseidon is a better option due to its lower data missing rate and shorter repeat cycle. GeoSat and GeoSat Follow-On (GFO) both have an extremely high data missing rate of lake water level estimates. Although several contemporary radar altimetry missions provide more accurate lake level estimates than GFO, GeoSat was the sole radar altimetry mission, between 1985 and 1990, that provided the lake water level estimates. With a full consideration of the performance and the operational duration, the best strategy for constructing long-term lake water level records should be a two-step bias correction and normalization procedure. In the first step, use Jason-2 as the initial reference to estimate the systematic biases with TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and Jason-3 and then normalize them to form a consistent TOPEX/Poseidon–Jason series. Then, use the TOPEX/Poseidon–Jason series as the reference to estimate and remove systematic biases with other radar altimetry missions to construct consistent long-term lake water level series for ungauged lakes.
  • Gonzales-Inca, Carlos; Calle, Mikel; Croghan, Danny; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Marttila, Hannu; Silander, Jari; Alho, Petteri (MDPI AG, 2022)
    Water
    This paper reviews the current GeoAI and machine learning applications in hydrological and hydraulic modeling, hydrological optimization problems, water quality modeling, and fluvial geomorphic and morphodynamic mapping. GeoAI effectively harnesses the vast amount of spatial and non-spatial data collected with the new automatic technologies. The fast development of GeoAI provides multiple methods and techniques, although it also makes comparisons between different methods challenging. Overall, selecting a particular GeoAI method depends on the application’s objective, data availability, and user expertise. GeoAI has shown advantages in non-linear modeling, computational efficiency, integration of multiple data sources, high accurate prediction capability, and the unraveling of new hydrological patterns and processes. A major drawback in most GeoAI models is the adequate model setting and low physical interpretability, explainability, and model generalization. The most recent research on hydrological GeoAI has focused on integrating the physical-based models’ principles with the GeoAI methods and on the progress towards autonomous prediction and forecasting systems.
  • Virkki, Vili; Alanärä, Elina; Porkka, Miina; Ahopelto, Lauri; Gleeson, Tom; Mohan, Chinchu; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Flörke, Martina; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Wanders, Niko; Kummu, Matti (Copernicus GmbH, 2022)
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
    Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding the riverine ecosystems, but at the global scale, the assessment of EFs is associated with high uncertainty related to the hydrological data and EF methods employed. Here, we present a novel, in-depth global EF assessment using environmental flow envelopes (EFEs). Sub-basin-specific EFEs are determined for approximately 4400 sub-basins at a monthly time resolution, and their derivation considers the methodological uncertainties related to global-scale EF studies. In addition to a lower bound of discharge based on existing EF methods, we introduce an upper bound of discharge in the EFE. This upper bound enables areas to be identified where streamflow has substantially increased above natural levels. Further, instead of only showing whether EFs are violated over a time period, we quantify, for the first time, the frequency, severity, and trends of EFE violations during the recent historical period. Discharge was derived from global hydrological model outputs from the ISIMIP 2b ensemble. We use pre-industrial (1801–1860) quasi-natural discharge together with a suite of hydrological EF methods to estimate the EFEs. We then compare the EFEs with recent historical (1976–2005) discharge to assess the violations of the EFE. These violations most commonly manifest as insufficient streamflow during the low-flow season, with fewer violations during the intermediate-flow season, and only a few violations during the high-flow season. The EFE violations are widespread and occur in half of the sub-basins of the world during more Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 3316 V. Virkki et al.: Globally widespread and increasing violations of environmental flow envelopes than 5 % of the months between 1976 and 2005, which is double compared with the pre-industrial period. The trends in EFE violations have mainly been increasing, which will likely continue in the future with the projected hydroclimatic changes and increases in anthropogenic water use. Indications of increased upper extreme streamflow through EFE upper bound violations are relatively scarce and dispersed. Although local fine-tuning is necessary for practical applications, and further research on the coupling between quantita tive discharge and riverine ecosystem responses at the global scale is required, the EFEs provide a quick and globally robust way of determining environmental flow allocations at the sub-basin scale to inform global research and policies on water resources management.
  • Menberu, Meseret Walle; Marttila, Hannu; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa; Haghighi, Ali Torabi; Kløve, Bjørn (American Geophysical Union, 2021)
    Water Resources Research 57, e2020WR028624
    Undisturbed peatlands are effective carbon sinks and provide a variety of ecosystem services. However, anthropogenic disturbances, especially land drainage, strongly alter peat soil properties and jeopardize the benefits of peatlands. The effects of disturbances should therefore be assessed and predicted. To support accurate modeling, this study determined the physical and hydraulic properties of intact and disturbed peat samples collected from 59 sites (in total 3,073 samples) in Finland and Norway. The bulk density (BD), porosity, and specific yield (Sy) values obtained indicated that the top layer (0–30 cm depth) at agricultural and peat extraction sites was most affected by land use change. The BD in the top layer at agricultural, peat extraction, and forestry sites was 441%, 140%, and 92% higher, respectively, than that of intact peatlands. Porosity decreased with increased BD, but not linearly. Agricultural and peat extraction sites had the lowest saturated hydraulic conductivity, Sy, and porosity, and the highest BD of the land use options studied. The van Genuchten-Mualem (vGM) soil water retention curve (SWRC) and hydraulic conductivity (K) models proved to be applicable for the peat soils tested, providing values of SWRC, K, and vGM-parameters (α and n) for peat layers (top, middle and bottom) under different land uses. A decrease in peat soil water content of ≥10% reduced the unsaturated K values by two orders of magnitude. This unique data set can be used to improve hydrological modeling in peat-dominated catchments and for fuller integration of peat soils into large-scale hydrological models.
  • Ahonen, Veronica (Helsingin yliopisto, 2019)
    Permafrost peatlands have the capacity to store significant amounts of carbon, and thus they act as important controllers of the climate. Approximately 14% of the world’s soil organic carbon pool is stored in permafrost peatlands, which are sensitive to climatic fluctuations due to their location in the high latitudes of the subarctic zone. Permafrost peatlands also act as a habitat for a large number of moisture-sensitive organisms, such as bryophytes and testate amoebae, which can be used to study how the hydrology of peatlands has changed and will continue to change throughout time, giving us an opportunity to predict the future of peatlands under a changing climate. In this Master’s Thesis I examined the testate amoebae composition and used these species as indicators to study hydrological fluctuations from three subarctic permafrost peatland cores extracted from Taavavuoma and Abisko in northern Sweden. The species compositions were combined with radiocarbon (14C) and lead (210Pb) dates to reconstruct the past water table levels for the late Holocene, spanning four climatic periods. The reconstructions were then compared to past studies on testate amoebae to understand how permafrost peatlands and their species assemblages respond to changes in the hydrology of the active layer of the peat. Out of the study sites only the Taavavuoma cores spanned the Dark Age Cold Period (DACP) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). Species compositions in both cores indicated fluctuating water tables during the DACP, but during the MCA the results began to contradict with one site showing a wetter, and the other a drier MCA. Two out of three study sites indicated a wetter Little Ice Age and a drier Post-Industrial Warming, supporting past studies indicating similar results, whereas one study site gave opposite results. The results indicated large variability in testate amoebae assemblages throughout time, indicating that the hydrology of peatlands can change very abruptly and vary considerably even on a local scale. Modelling is however complicated by the poorly known ecology of testate amoebae, which is why a multi-proxy approach is essential to reliably predict the future fate of permafrost peatlands.
  • Rankinen, Katri; Enrique, José; Bernal, Cano; Holmberg, Maria; Vuorio, Kristiina; Granlund, Kirsti (Elsevier, 2019)
    Science of The Total Environment 658 (2019), 1278-1292
    In Finland, a recent ecological classification of surface waters showed that the rivers and coastal waters need attention to improve their ecological state. We combined eco-hydrological and empirical models to study chlorophyll-a concentration as an indicator of eutrophication in a small agricultural river. We used a modified story-and-simulation method to build three storylines for possible changes in future land use due to climate change and political change. The main objective in the first storyline is to stimulate economic activity but also to promote the sustainable and efficient use of resources. The second storyline is based on the high awareness but poor regulation of environmental protection, and the third is to survive as individual countries instead of being part of a unified Europe. We assumed trade of agricultural products to increase to countries outside Europe. We found that chlorophyll-a concentration in the river depended on total phosphorus concentration. In addition, there was a positive synergistic interaction between total phosphorus and water temperature. In future storylines, chlorophyll-a concentration increased due to land use and climate change. Climate change mainly had an indirect influence via increasing nutrient losses from intensified agriculture. We found that well-designed agri-environmental measures had the potential to decrease nutrient loading from fields, as long as the predicted increase in temperature remained under 2 °C. However, we were not able to achieve the nutrient reduction stated in current water protection targets. In addition, the ecological status of the river deteriorated. The influence of temperature on chlorophyll-a growth indicates that novel measures for shading rivers to decrease water temperature may be needed in the future.
  • Lotsari, Eliisa; Lind, Lovisa; Kämäri, Maria (MDPI, 2019)
    Water 2019, 11, 2058
    Predicting the future changes in river ice development and impacts on seasonal sediment transport requires more in-depth examination of present river ice cover growth processes. This paper therefore investigates: (1) the impacts of hydro-climatically varying years on river ice development in a Scandinavian subarctic meandering river and (2) the accuracy of existing analytical models for predicting ice thickness growth and ice decay. Stefan’s ice growth equation (version by Michel et al.) and Bilello’s ice decay equation are applied to varying hydro-climatic conditions experienced in the years 2013–2019. Estimates from these equations are compared with observed field conditions such as ice thicknesses, ice clearance dates and freeze-thaw days. Overall, the equations were most accurate in the winter of 2016–2017 when the maximum mid-winter snow thickness value was high, the number of freeze-thaw days was the closest to the long-term average of northern Scandinavia, and the rate of thermal snow-melt in the subsequent spring was slow. The equations would need to be adjusted to take into account expected future changes to conditions such as shorter winters, less snow formation and increased frequency of air temperatures crossing 0 °C.
  • Mustajoki, Jyri; Marttunen, Mika (Elsevier, 2019)
    EURO Journal on Decision Processes 7, issues 3–4 (2019), pages 359-386
    Resilience management aims to increase the ability of the system to respond to adverse events. In this study, we develop and apply a structured framework for assessing the resilience of the decision-making process related to reservoir (or lake) regulation with the resilience matrix approach. Our study area is Finland, where the initiatives for the regulation have typically been hydro power production or flood prevention, but nowadays recreational and environmental issues are also increasingly considered. The main objectives of this study are twofold. First, it aims to provide support for reservoir operators and supervisors of the water course regulation projects in their work for identifying the possible threats and actions to diminish their consequences. Second, it studies the applicability of the resilience matrix approach in a quite specifically defined operational process, as most of the earlier applications have focused on a more general context. Our resilience matrix was developed in close co-operation with reservoir operators and supervisors of regulation by means of two workshops and a survey. For the practical application of the matrix, we created an evaluation form for assessing the resilience of a single dam operation process and for evaluating the cost efficiency of the actions identified to improve the resilience. The approach was tested on a dam controlling the water level of a middle-sized lake, where it proved to be a competent way to systematically assess resilience.
  • Leppäranta, Matti; Virta, Juhani; Huttula, Timo (University of Helsinki, 2022)
    This book contains the basics of hydrology. As a prerequisite the reader should have a high school level knowledge on aquatic systems. The book is based on the lecture notes of professor emeritus Juhani Virta for the course Basic course in hydrology, into which professor Timo Huttula and professor emeritus Matti Leppäranta have made their own additions. This book is used as a textbook on the course Introduction to hydrology at the University of Helsinki, where it is a part of the studies of geophysics, limnology and fisheries science. In general, this book is suitable as a university textbook, for self-study or as a small reference book. The contents of this book revolve around hydrology in the Finnish environment.
  • Marttila, H.; Laudon, H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Jaramillo, F.; Alfredsen, K.; Ronkanen, A.-K.; Kronvang, B.; Lotsari, E.; Kämäri, M.; Ala-Aho, P.; Nousu, J.; Silander, J.; Koivusalo, H.; Kløve, B. (IWA Publishing, 2022)
    Hydrology Research
    HIGHLIGHTS • In this commentary, we highlight new possibilities and suggest vital steps forward for the scientific discipline within the Nordic hydrological research. • By providing a common direction, we hope to increase the awareness, and thus not only accelerate progress in the hydrological community but also emphasize the importance of hydrological knowledge for serving other fields of science and society. Abstract The 21st century has brought new challenges and opportunities and has also increased demands on the Nordic hydrological community. Our hydrological science focus and approaches need rethinking and adaptation to the changing requirements of society in response to climate change and human interventions, in search of more comprehensive and cross-disciplinary solutions. This commentary highlights new possibilities and suggests vital steps forward for the scientific discipline within Nordic hydrological research. By providing a common direction, we hope to increase awareness, accelerate progress in the hydrological community, and emphasize the importance of hydrological knowledge for serving other fields of science and society at large. We hope that our vision and the opportunities we identify will raise awareness of the scientific discipline and assist in the long-term development of the Nordic hydrological frontier in the 21st century.
  • Heikurainen, Leo (Suomen metsätieteellinen seura, 1963)
  • Bechtold, M.; De Lannoy, G. J. M.; Koster, R. D.; Reichle, R. H.; Mahanama, S. P.; Bleuten, W.; Bourgault, M. A.; Brümmer, C.; Burdun; Desai, A. R.; Devito, K.; Grünwald, T.; Grygoruk, M.; Humphreys, E. R.; Klatt, J.; Kurbatova, J.; Lohila, A.; Munir, T. M.; Nilsson, M. B.; Price, J. S.; Röhl, M.; Schneider, A.; Tiemeyer, B. (2019)
    Peatlands are poorly represented in global Earth system modeling frameworks. Here we add a peatland-specific land surface hydrology module (PEAT-CLSM) to the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) framework. The amended TOPMODEL approach of the original CLSM that uses topography characteristics to model catchment processes is discarded, and a peatland-specific model concept is realized in its place. To facilitate its utilization in operational GEOS efforts, PEAT-CLSM uses the basic structure of CLSM and the same global input data. Parameters used in PEAT-CLSM are based on literature data. A suite of CLSM and PEAT-CLSM simulations for peatland areas between 40 degrees N and 75 degrees N is presented and evaluated against a newly compiled data set of groundwater table depth and eddy covariance observations of latent and sensible heat fluxes in natural and seminatural peatlands. CLSM's simulated groundwater tables are too deep and variable, whereas PEAT-CLSM simulates a mean groundwater table depth of -0.20 m (snow-free unfrozen period) with moderate temporal fluctuations (standard deviation of 0.10 m), in significantly better agreement with in situ observations. Relative to an operational CLSM version that simply includes peat as a soil class, the temporal correlation coefficient is increased on average by 0.16 and reaches 0.64 for bogs and 0.66 for fens when driven with global atmospheric forcing data. In PEAT-CLSM, runoff is increased on average by 38% and evapotranspiration is reduced by 19%. The evapotranspiration reduction constitutes a significant improvement relative to eddy covariance measurements.
  • Leppäranta, Matti; Luttinen, Arto; Arvola, Lauri (2020)
    Shallow Antarctic surface lakes belong to the most extreme aquatic environments on the Earth. In Vestfjella, proglacial surface lakes and ponds are characterized by a 2-5 month long period with liquid water and depths <2 m. We give a detailed description of nine seasonal lakes and ponds situating at three nunataqs (Basen, Plogen and Fossilryggen) in western Dronning Maud Land. Their physical and geochemical properties are provided based on observations in four summers. Three main 'lake categories' were found: 1) supraglacial lakes, 2) epiglacial ponds and 3) nunataq ponds. Category 3 lakes can be divided into two subgroups with regards to whether the meltwater source is glacial or just seasonal snow patches. Supraglacial lakes are ultra-oligotrophic (electrical conductivity <10 mu S cm(-1), pH <7), while in epiglacial ponds the concentrations of dissolved and suspended matter and trophic status vary over a wide range (electrical conductivity 20-110 mu S cm(-1), pH 6-9). In nunataq ponds, the maxima were an electrical conductivity of 1042 mu S cm(-1)and a pH of 10.1, and water temperature may have wide diurnal and day-to-day fluctuations (maximum 9.3 degrees C) because snowfall, snow drift and sublimation influence the net solar irradiance.
  • Kiczko, Adam; Västilä, Kaisa; Kozioł, Adam; Kubrak, Janusz; Kubrak, Elzbieta; Krukowski, Marcin (EGU, 2020)
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24 8 (2020)
    Despite the development of advanced process-based methods for estimating the discharge capacity of vegetated river channels, most of the practical one-dimensional modeling is based on a relatively simple divided channel method (DCM) with the Manning flow resistance formula. This study is motivated by the need to improve the reliability of modeling in practical applications while acknowledging the limitations on the availability of data on vegetation properties and related parameters required by the process-based methods. We investigate whether the advanced methods can be applied to modeling of vegetated compound channels by identifying the missing characteristics as parameters through the formulation of an inverse problem. Six models of channel discharge capacity are compared in respect of their uncertainty using a probabilistic approach. The model with the lowest estimated uncertainty in explaining differences between computed and observed values is considered the most favorable. Calculations were performed for flume and field settings varying in floodplain vegetation submergence, density, and flexibility, and in hydraulic conditions. The output uncertainty, estimated on the basis of a Bayes approach, was analyzed for a varying number of observation points, demonstrating the significance of the parameter equifinality. The results showed that very reliable predictions with low uncertainties can be obtained for process-based methods with a large number of parameters. The equifinality affects the parameter identification but not the uncertainty of a model. The best performance for sparse, emergent, rigid vegetation was obtained with the Mertens method and for dense, flexible vegetation with a simplified two-layer method, while a generalized two-layer model with a description of the plant flexibility was the most universally applicable to different vegetative conditions. In many cases, the Manning-based DCM performed satisfactorily but could not be reliably extrapolated to higher flows.
  • Kämäri, Maria; Alho, Petteri; Veijalainen, Noora; Aaltonen, Juha; Huokuna, Mikko; Lotsari, Eliisa (2015)
    Hydrological Processes 29(22): 4738–4755
    A large number of rivers are frozen annually and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice-free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in SW Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydro-climatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice-free river with similar discharges. Based on long-term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice-free and ice-covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77 % on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future.
  • Veijalainen, Noora; Ahopelto, Lauri; Marttunen, Mika; Jääskeläinen, Jaakko; Britschgi, Ritva; Orvomaa, Mirjam; Belinskij, Antti; Keskinen, Marko (MDPI, 2019)
    Sustainability
    Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.