Browsing by Subject "mallit (mallintaminen)"

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  • Forsius, Martin; Posch, Maximilian; Holmberg, Maria; Vuorenmaa, Jussi; Kleemola, Sirpa; Augustaitis, Algirdas; Beudert, Burkhard; Bochenek, Witold; Clarke, Nicholas; de Wit, Heleen A.; Dirnböck, Thomas; Frey, Jane; Grandin, Ulf; Hakola, Hannele; Kobler, Johannes; Krám, Pavel; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Löfgren, Stefan; Pecka, Tomasz; Rönnback, Pernilla; Skotak, Krzysztof; Szpikowski, Józef; Ukonmaanaho, Liisa; Valinia, Salar; Váňa, Milan (Elsevier, 2021)
    Science of The Total Environment 753 (2021), 141791
    Anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen (N) and sulphur (S) compounds and their long-range transport have caused widespread negative impacts on different ecosystems. Critical loads (CLs) are deposition thresholds used to describe the sensitivity of ecosystems to atmospheric deposition. The CL methodology has been a key science-based tool for assessing the environmental consequences of air pollution. We computed CLs for eutrophication and acidification using a European long-term dataset of intensively studied forested ecosystem sites (n = 17) in northern and central Europe. The sites belong to the ICP IM and eLTER networks. The link between the site-specific calculations and time-series of CL exceedances and measured site data was evaluated using long-term measurements (1990–2017) for bulk deposition, throughfall and runoff water chemistry. Novel techniques for presenting exceedances of CLs and their temporal development were also developed. Concentrations and fluxes of sulphate, total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) and acidity in deposition substantially decreased at the sites. Decreases in S deposition resulted in statistically significant decreased concentrations and fluxes of sulphate in runoff and decreasing trends of TIN in runoff were more common than increasing trends. The temporal developments of the exceedance of the CLs indicated the more effective reductions of S deposition compared to N at the sites. There was a relation between calculated exceedance of the CLs and measured runoff water concentrations and fluxes, and most sites with higher CL exceedances showed larger decreases in both TIN and H+ concentrations and fluxes. Sites with higher cumulative exceedance of eutrophication CLs (averaged over 3 and 30 years) generally showed higher TIN concentrations in runoff. The results provided evidence on the link between CL exceedances and empirical impacts, increasing confidence in the methodology used for the European-scale CL calculations. The results also confirm that emission abatement actions are having their intended effects on CL exceedances and ecosystem impacts.
  • Rajakallio, Maria; Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Muotka, Timo; Aroviita, Jukka (Blackwell, 2021)
    Journal of Applied Ecology 58: 7, 1523-1532
    1. Growing bioeconomy is increasing the pressure to clear-cut drained peatland forests. Yet, the cumulative effects of peatland drainage and clear-cutting on the biodiversity of recipient freshwater ecosystems are largely unknown. 2. We studied the isolated and combined effects of peatland drainage and clear-cutting on stream macroinvertebrate communities. We further explored whether the impact of these forestry-driven catchment alterations to benthic invertebrates is related to stream size. We quantified the impact on invertebrate biodiversity by comparing communities in forestry-impacted streams to expected communities modelled with a multi-taxon niche model. 3. The impact of clear-cutting of drained peatland forests exceeded the sum of the independent effects of drainage and clear-cutting, indicating a synergistic interaction between the two disturbances in small streams. Peatland drainage reduced benthic biodiversity in both small and large streams, whereas clear-cutting did the same only in small streams. Small headwater streams were more sensitive to forestry impacts than the larger downstream sites. 4. We found 11 taxa (out of 25 modelled) to respond to forestry disturbances. These taxa were mainly different from those previously reported as sensitive to forestry-driven alterations, indicating the context dependence of taxonomic responses to forestry. In contrast, most of the functional traits previously identified as responsive to agricultural sedimentation also responded to forestry pressures. In particular, taxa that live temporarily in hyporheic habitats, move by crawling, disperse actively in water, live longer than 1 year, use eggs as resistance form and obtain their food by scraping became less abundant than expected, particularly in streams impacted by both drainage and clear-cutting. 5. Synthesis and applications. Drained peatland forests in boreal areas are reaching maturity and will soon be harvested. Clear-cutting of these forests incurs multiple environmental hazards but previous studies have focused on terrestrial ecosystems. Our results show that the combined impacts of peatland drainage and clear-cutting may extend across ecosystem boundaries and cause significant biodiversity loss in recipient freshwater ecosystems. This information supports a paradigm shift in boreal forest management, whereby continuous-cover forestry based on partial harvest may provide the most sustainable approach to peatland forestry.
  • Ruggiero, Salvatore; Kangas, Hanna-Liisa; Annala, Sari; Lazarevic, David (Elsevier, 2021)
    Environmental Innovation and Societal Transition 39
    Demand response (DR) is an innovation emerging at the intersection of the energy and information and communications technology sectors. This paper aims to investigate the drivers of—and differences in—business model innovation (BMI) behaviours of firms operating in these two interacting industries. Results from 22 semi-structured interviews with representatives of Finnish DR companies show that external drivers of BMI include regulation, competition, and the demise of the telecom industry following the fall of Nokia. Whereas technology start-ups and companies from adjacent industries are motivated by entrepreneurial opportunities, incumbent energy companies are driven by the threat of losing their existing customers and need to increase efficiency. The BMI behaviours observed do not fall neatly into the often-used dichotomous categories of niche/new entrant and regime/incumbent, as firms show behaviours from both extremes. To overcome this binary thinking, we propose a morphological box model that represents the extreme states of firm BMI while allowing for flexibility.
  • Ahopelto, Lauri; Veijalainen, Noora; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Keskinen, Marko; Marttunen, Mika; Varis, Olli (MDPI, 2019)
    Sustainability 2019, 11, 1548
    Severe droughts can affect water security even in countries with ample water resources. In addition, droughts are estimated to become more frequent in several regions due to changing climate. Drought affects many socio-economic sectors (e.g., agriculture, water supply, and industry), as it did in 2018 in Finland. Understanding the basin-wide picture is crucial in drought management planning. To identify vulnerable and water stressed areas in Finland, a water use-to-availability analysis was executed with a reference drought. Water stress was analyzed with the Water Depletion Index WDI. The analysis was executed using national water permits and databases. To represent a severe but realistic drought event, we modelled discharges and runoffs from the worst drought of the last century in Finland (1939–1942). The potential for performing similar analyses in data scarce contexts was also tested using estimates from global models as a screening tool. The results show that the South and Southwest of Finland would have problems with water availability during a severe drought. The most vulnerable areas would benefit from drought mitigation measures and management plans. These measures could be incorporated into the EU River Basin Management Plans.
  • Miettinen, Sari; Rättö, Hanna; Reiterä, Tuomas; Vadén, Veli-Matti (Kela, 2021)
    Kuntoutusta kehittämässä
    Kelassa on käytössä usean vuoden kehittämisen tuloksena rakennettu kuntoutuksen hyödyn arvioinnin malli. Kelan mallista erityisen tekee systemaattinen tiedonkeruu sekä arvioinnin perustana käytettävän aineiston monipuolisuus. Tietoa kerätään toiminta- ja työkyvyn muutoksesta kuntoutuksen aikana sekä sen jälkeen kuntoutuksen asiakkailta ja palveluntuottajilta ja niihin liitetään tietoa eri rekistereistä. Mallin kautta saatavaa tietoa käytetään tällä hetkellä Kelassa kuntoutuksen kehittämiseen sekä kuntoutusta koskevassa tilastoinnissa. Kuntoutuksen uudistamiskomitea on ehdottanut Kelan mallin soveltamista myös Kelan ulkopuolella. Nykyinen malli on rakennettu Kelan lähtökohdista, mutta laajan ja systemaattisen tietojen keräämisen perusajatusta ja mallin perusrakenteen osia voi soveltaa myös muualla. Mallissa on käytössä neljä mittaria. Kuntoutuksen tavoitteiden toteutumisesta kerätään tietoja GAS-menetelmällä, kuntoutujien elämänlaadusta WHOQOL-BREF-mittarilla ja heidän mahdollisista masennusoireistaan BDI-21-mittarin väestöversiolla. Lisäksi erillisellä lomakkeella kerätään sekä asiakkaalta että palveluntuottajalta asiakkaan työkykyyn liittyviä tietoja. Mittaukset toteutetaan kyselylomakkeilla. Mallissa on tunnistettu sen onnistuneen toiminnan ja laajemman soveltamisen kannalta keskeisiä ominaisuuksia. Ensimmäiseksi, mallin rakenteen ja sen ylläpitämisen selkeyttämiseksi kuntoutuksen hyödyn arvioinnille on Kelan sisällä määritelty selkeä toimintaa ohjaava tavoite. Toiseksi, mallin mukainen toiminta on edellyttänyt monitahoisen tiedonkeruu- ja raportointikokonaisuuden rakentamisen ja sen ylläpitämisen. Kolmanneksi, tiivis yhteistyö palveluntuottajien kanssa on kerättävän aineiston kattavuuden kannalta keskeinen tehtävä. Neljänneksi, kuntoutuksen hyötyä koskevan tiedon prosessi asiakkailta tiedon hyödyntämiseen, sisältää monta vaihetta ja monia tiedon liikkumisen rajapintoja. Tiedon tulee liikkua rajapinnoilla sujuvasti. Viidenneksi, mallin useat toimijat ja vaiheet muodostavat laajan verkoston, jossa tarvitaan tiivistä yhteistyötä sekä aineiston muodostamisen ja kehitystarpeiden koordinointia.
  • Kiczko, Adam; Västilä, Kaisa; Kozioł, Adam; Kubrak, Janusz; Kubrak, Elzbieta; Krukowski, Marcin (EGU, 2020)
    Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 24 8 (2020)
    Despite the development of advanced process-based methods for estimating the discharge capacity of vegetated river channels, most of the practical one-dimensional modeling is based on a relatively simple divided channel method (DCM) with the Manning flow resistance formula. This study is motivated by the need to improve the reliability of modeling in practical applications while acknowledging the limitations on the availability of data on vegetation properties and related parameters required by the process-based methods. We investigate whether the advanced methods can be applied to modeling of vegetated compound channels by identifying the missing characteristics as parameters through the formulation of an inverse problem. Six models of channel discharge capacity are compared in respect of their uncertainty using a probabilistic approach. The model with the lowest estimated uncertainty in explaining differences between computed and observed values is considered the most favorable. Calculations were performed for flume and field settings varying in floodplain vegetation submergence, density, and flexibility, and in hydraulic conditions. The output uncertainty, estimated on the basis of a Bayes approach, was analyzed for a varying number of observation points, demonstrating the significance of the parameter equifinality. The results showed that very reliable predictions with low uncertainties can be obtained for process-based methods with a large number of parameters. The equifinality affects the parameter identification but not the uncertainty of a model. The best performance for sparse, emergent, rigid vegetation was obtained with the Mertens method and for dense, flexible vegetation with a simplified two-layer method, while a generalized two-layer model with a description of the plant flexibility was the most universally applicable to different vegetative conditions. In many cases, the Manning-based DCM performed satisfactorily but could not be reliably extrapolated to higher flows.
  • Thorén, Henrik; Soininen, Niko; Kotamäki, Niina (Elsevier, 2021)
    Environmental Science & Policy 124 (2021), 478-484
    Legal decision-making often relies on scientific knowledge and information of other kinds, not least in environmental law where legal institutions use environmental modeling to, for example, project expected effects of projects when approving or denying permits. In this paper, using use the problem-feeding model of interdisciplinarity, we analyze this relationship as an exchange of problems and solutions between different communities of expertise. Drawing on recent examples from Finland, we use the problem-feeding model to explore the conditions under which problem-solution coordination breaks down. We argue that tensions between the notions of uncertainty used by the different communities of expertise can lead to differing understandings of the way the relationship between legal institutions and scientific experts works, and that this may disrupt the orderly exchange of problems and solutions. We illustrate our views in a fictional discussion between a lawyer and a modeler.