Browsing by Subject "model validation"

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  • Zsebeházi, Gabriella; Mahó, Sándor István (2021)
    Land surface models with detailed urban parameterization schemes provide adequate tools to estimate the impact of climate change in cities, because they rely on the results of the regional climate model, while operating on km scale at low cost. In this paper, the SURFEX land surface model driven by the evaluation and control runs of ALADIN-Climate regional climate model is validated over Budapest from the aspect of urban impact on temperature. First, surface temperature of SURFEX with forcings from ERA-Interim driven ALADIN-Climate was compared against the MODIS land surface temperature for a 3-year period. Second, the impact of the ARPEGE global climate model driven ALADIN-Climate was assessed on the 2 m temperature of SURFEX and was validated against measurements of a suburban station for 30 years. The spatial extent of surface urban heat island (SUHI) is exaggerated in SURFEX from spring to autumn, because the urbanized gridcells are generally warmer than their rural vicinity, while the observed SUHI extent is more variable. The model reasonably simulates the seasonal means and diurnal cycle of the 2 m temperature in the suburban gridpoint, except summer when strong positive bias occurs. However, comparing the two experiments from the aspect of nocturnal UHI, only minor differences arose. The thorough validation underpins the applicability of SURFEX driven by ALADIN-Climate for future urban climate projections.
  • Janiszewski, Mateusz; Hernandez, Enrique Caballero; Siren, Topias; Uotinen, Lauri; Kukkonen, Ilmo; Rinne, Mikael (2018)
    Accurate and fast numerical modelling of the borehole heat exchanger (BHE) is required for simulation of long-term thermal energy storage in rocks using boreholes. The goal of this study was to conduct an in situ experiment to validate the proposed numerical modelling approach. In the experiment, hot water was circulated for 21 days through a single U-tube BHE installed in an underground research tunnel located at a shallow depth in crystalline rock. The results of the simulations using the proposed model were validated against the measurements. The numerical model simulated the BHE's behaviour accurately and compared well with two other modelling approaches from the literature. The model is capable of replicating the complex geometrical arrangement of the BHE and is considered to be more appropriate for simulations of BHE systems with complex geometries. The results of the sensitivity analysis of the proposed model have shown that low thermal conductivity, high density, and high heat capacity of rock are essential for maximising the storage efficiency of a borehole thermal energy storage system. Other characteristics of BHEs, such as a high thermal conductivity of the grout, a large radius of the pipe, and a large distance between the pipes, are also preferred for maximising efficiency.
  • Morley, S. K.; Brito, T. V.; Welling, D. T. (2018)
    Quantitative assessment of modeling and forecasting of continuous quantities uses a variety of approaches. We review existing literature describing metrics for forecast accuracy and bias, concentrating on those based on relative errors and percentage errors. Of these accuracy metrics, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is one of the most common across many fields and has been widely applied in recent space science literature and we highlight the benefits and drawbacks of MAPE and proposed alternatives. We then introduce the log accuracy ratio and derive from it two metrics: the median symmetric accuracy and the symmetric signed percentage bias. Robust methods for estimating the spread of a multiplicative linear model using the log accuracy ratio are also presented. The developed metrics are shown to be easy to interpret, robust, and to mitigate the key drawbacks of their more widely used counterparts based on relative errors and percentage errors. Their use is illustrated with radiation belt electron flux modeling examples.