Browsing by Subject "model"

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  • McCrackin, Michelle L.; Muller-Karulis, Baerbel; Gustafsson, Bo G.; Howarth, Robert W.; Humborg, Christoph; Svanbäck, Annika; Swaney, Dennis P. (2018)
    There is growing evidence that the release of phosphorus (P) from legacy stores can frustrate efforts to reduce P loading to surface water from sources such as agriculture and human sewage. Less is known, however, about the magnitude and residence times of these legacy pools. Here we constructed a budget of net anthropogenic P inputs to the Baltic Sea drainage basin and developed a three-parameter, two-box model to describe the movement of anthropogenic P though temporary (mobile) and long-term (stable) storage pools. Phosphorus entered the sea as direct coastal effluent discharge and via rapid transport and slow, legacy pathways. The model reproduced past waterborne P loads and suggested an similar to 30-year residence time in the mobile pool. Between 1900 and 2013, 17 and 27 Mt P has accumulated in the mobile and stable pools, respectively. Phosphorus inputs to the sea have halved since the 1980s due to improvements in coastal sewage treatment and reductions associated with the rapid transport pathway. After decades of accumulation, the system appears to have shifted to a depletion phase; absent further reductions in net anthropogenic P input, future waterborne loads could decrease. Presently, losses from the mobile pool contribute nearly half of P loads, suggesting that it will be difficult to achieve substantial near-term reductions. However, there is still potential to make progress toward eutrophication management goals by addressing rapid transport pathways, such as overland flow, as well as mobile stores, such as cropland with large soil-P reserves.
  • Khan, Uzair Akbar; Postila, Heini; Kujala, Katharina; Heiderscheidt, Elisangela; Ronkanen, Anna-Kaisa (Elsevier BV, 2022)
    Ecological Engineering
    Highlights •Initial peaks in tracer concentration were simulated satisfactorily. •Transport of nitrogen especially in winter was modeled with limited success. •Limitations of the model and possibilities for improvement are discussed. •Possibility to use multiple HYDRUS add-ons simultaneously may be critical. Abstract The HYDRUS wetland module is widely used together with the biokinetic model CWM1 to simulate reactive transport of contaminants in constructed wetlands. However, this approach has not been used previously to simulate processes in peat-based wetlands operating in cold climates and treating mining-influenced water. In this study, the goal was to clarify changes in flow, transport, and nitrogen removal processes in cold climate treatment peatlands by assessing the performance of HYDRUS-CWM1. Flow and non-reactive transport of tracer, and reactive transport of ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate, in two pilot wetlands operated under controlled conditions representing frozen (winter) and frost-free (summer) periods were simulated. Model simulation outputs were compared against data obtained from the pilot wetlands and from a full-scale treatment peatland treating mining-influenced water in an Arctic region. Initial peaks in tracer concentration were simulated satisfactorily, but transformation and transport of nitrogen species in treatment peatlands, especially under partially frozen conditions, were modeled with only limited success. Limitations of the model and the assumptions made for the simulations have been discussed to highlight the challenges in modeling of treatment peatlands.
  • Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Adcroft, Alistair; Böning, Claus W.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Curchitser, Enrique; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Eden, Carsten; England, Matthew H.; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Hanert, Emmanuel; Heimbach, Patrick; Hewitt, Helene T.; Hill, Christopher N.; Komuro, Yoshiki; Legg, Sonya; Le Sommer, Julien; Masina, Simona; Marsland, Simon J.; Penny, Stephen G.; Qiao, Fangli; Ringler, Todd D.; Treguier, Anne Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Yeager, Stephen G. (2019)
    We revisit the challenges and prospects for ocean circulation models following Griffies et al. (2010). Over the past decade, ocean circulation models evolved through improved understanding, numerics, spatial discretization, grid configurations, parameterizations, data assimilation, environmental monitoring, and process-level observations and modeling. Important large scale applications over the last decade are simulations of the Southern Ocean, the Meridional Overturning Circulation and its variability, and regional sea level change. Submesoscale variability is now routinely resolved in process models and permitted in a few global models, and submesoscale effects are parameterized in most global models. The scales where nonhydrostatic effects become important are beginning to be resolved in regional and process models. Coupling to sea ice, ice shelves, and high-resolution atmospheric models has stimulated new ideas and driven improvements in numerics. Observations have provided insight into turbulence and mixing around the globe and its consequences are assessed through perturbed physics models. Relatedly, parameterizations of the mixing and overturning processes in boundary layers and the ocean interior have improved. New diagnostics being used for evaluating models alongside present and novel observations are briefly referenced. The overall goal is summarizing new developments in ocean modeling, including: how new and existing observations can be used, what modeling challenges remain, and how simulations can be used to support observations.
  • Lehtamo, Sanna; Juuti, Kalle; Inkinen, Janna; Lavonen, Jari (2018)
    Background: There is a lack of students enrolling in upper secondary school physics courses. In addition, many students discontinue the physics track, causing a lack of applicants for university-level science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) programmes. The aim of this research was to determine if it is possible to find a connection between academic emotions in situ and physics track retention at the end of the first year of upper secondary school using phone-delivered experience sampling method. We applied experience sampling delivered by phone to one group of students in one school. The sample comprised 36 first-year upper secondary school students (median age 16) who enrolled in the last physics course of the first year. Students' academic emotions during science learning situations were measured using phones three times during each of four physics lessons. Results: The logistic regression analysis showed that lack of stress predicted retention in the physics track. Conclusions: Via questionnaires delivered by phone, it is possible to capture students' academic emotions in situ, information on which may help teachers to support students emotionally during their physics studies. In addition, reflecting their situational academic emotions, students could perhaps make better-informed decisions concerning their studies in STEM subjects.
  • Heino, Waltteri (Helsingin yliopisto, 2020)
    This thesis analyzes the digitalization policy of the Finnish government. The main attempt is to, firstly, identify the central ideas and ideologies behind the approach of the Finnish government toward societal digitalization. Secondly, the attempt is to analyze them from the perspective of the traditional ideas and ideologies of the Nordic welfare state. The underlining research question is, whether the possible approach of the Finnish government toward digitalization is compatible with the traditional ideas and ideologies of the Nordic welfare state. The method in this thesis is a combination of qualitative content analysis and historical research methods. Qualitative content analysis with a focus on an analysis of ideologies is used for analyzing primary sources. A historical perspective is used in an attempt to locate contemporary societal digitalization on a trajectory of societal transformations in post-industrial capitalist states, as well as when presenting the Nordic welfare state model. Overall, the approach of the Finnish government appears largely in line with traditional Nordic welfare state values, such as equality and inclusion. However, one of the main findings of this thesis is that the approach of the Finnish government toward digitalization is a largely apolitical and instrumentalized one. Although possible political, economic and social implications of digitalization are identified, the government appears more concerned with providing all citizens equal access to digitalization than facilitating a public discussion on the nature, form or scope of the phenomenon. While such a consensual approach may be analyzed from the perspective of the Nordic culture of conformity, one of the main arguments of this thesis is that a politicized approach to digitalization could allow for a fruitful discussion on its eventual effects on society.
  • Holmberg, Maria; Aalto, Tuula; Akujarvi, Anu; Arslan, Ali Nadir; Bergstrom, Irina; Bottcher, Kristin; Lahtinen, Ismo; Makela, Annikki; Markkanen, Tiina; Minunno, Francesco; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Rankinen, Katri; Vihervaara, Petteri; Forsius, Martin (2019)
    Forests regulate climate, as carbon, water and nutrient fluxes are modified by physiological processes of vegetation and soil. Forests also provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming projected for the boreal zone may change the provision of these ecosystem services. We demonstrate model based estimates of present and future ecosystem services related to carbon cycling of boreal forests. The services were derived from biophysical variables calculated by two dynamic models. Future changes in the biophysical variables were driven by climate change scenarios obtained as results of a sample of global climate models downscaled for Finland, assuming three future pathways of radiative forcing. We introduce continuous monitoring on phenology to be used in model parametrization through a webcam network with automated image processing features. In our analysis, climate change impacts on key boreal forest ecosystem services are both beneficial and detrimental. Our results indicate an increase in annual forest growth of about 60% and an increase in annual carbon sink of roughly 40% from the reference period (1981-2010) to the end of the century. The vegetation active period was projected to start about 3 weeks earlier and end ten days later by the end of the century compared to currently. We found a risk for increasing drought, and a decrease in the number of soil frost days. Our results show a considerable uncertainty in future provision of boreal forest ecosystem services.
  • Foster, Scott D.; Vanhatalo, Jarno; Trenkel, Verena M.; Schulz, Torsti; Lawrence, Emma; Przeslawski, Rachel; Hosack, Geoffrey (2021)
    Data are currently being used, and reused, in ecological research at an unprecedented rate. To ensure appropriate reuse however, we need to ask the question: "Are aggregated databases currently providing the right information to enable effective and unbiased reuse?" We investigate this question, with a focus on designs that purposefully favor the selection of sampling locations (upweighting the probability of selection of some locations). These designs are common and examples are those designs that have uneven inclusion probabilities or are stratified. We perform a simulation experiment by creating data sets with progressively more uneven inclusion probabilities and examine the resulting estimates of the average number of individuals per unit area (density). The effect of ignoring the survey design can be profound, with biases of up to 250% in density estimates when naive analytical methods are used. This density estimation bias is not reduced by adding more data. Fortunately, the estimation bias can be mitigated by using an appropriate estimator or an appropriate model that incorporates the design information. These are only available however, when essential information about the survey design is available: the sample location selection process (e.g., inclusion probabilities), and/or covariates used in their specification. The results suggest that such information must be stored and served with the data to support meaningful inference and data reuse.
  • Aphalo, Pedro J. (2018)
    I present examples of the use of Sasha Madronich's Quick TUV Calculator at UCAR together with the R packages in the R for Photobiology suite to produce plots of the solar spectrum and plots and tables of derived quantities and summaries. The article includes as supplements an instructional video on the use of the Quick TUV Calculator to simulate the solar spectrum at different geographic and time coordinates and under different atmospheric conditions including the thickness of the ozone column. The R code and data are supplied so that the code examples can be reproduced and adapted.
  • Kaitaniemi, Pekka; Lintunen, Anna (2021)
    In many cases, the traditional ground-based estimates of competition between trees are not directly applicable with modern aerial inventories, due to incompatible measurements. Moreover, many former studies of competition consider extreme stand densities, hence the effect of competition under the density range in managed stands remains less explored. Here we explored the utility of a simple tree height- and distance-based competition index that provides compatibility with data produced by modern inventory methods. The index was used for the prediction of structural tree attributes in three boreal tree species growing in low to moderate densities within mixed stands. In silver birch, allometric models predicting tree diameter, crown height, and branch length all showed improvement when the effect of between-tree competition was included. A similar but non-significant trend was also present in a proxy for branch biomass. In Siberian larch, only the prediction of branch length was affected. In Scots pine, there was no improvement. The results suggest that quantification of competitive interactions based on individual tree heights and locations alone has potential to improve the prediction of tree attributes, although the outcomes can be species-specific.
  • Manninen, Terhikki; Stenberg, Pauline (Ilmatieteen laitos - Finnish Meteorological Institute, 2021)
    Raportteja - Rapporter - Reports 2021:5
    Recently a simple analytic canopy bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) model based on the spectral invariants theory was presented. The model takes into account that the recollision probability in the forest canopy is different for the first scattering than the later ones. Here this model is extended to include the forest floor contribution to the total forest BRF. The effect of the understory vegetation on the total forest BRF as well as on the simple ratio (SR) and the normalized difference (NDVI) vegetation indices is demonstrated for typical cases of boreal forest. The relative contribution of the forest floor to the total BRF was up to 69 % in the red wavelength range and up to 54 % in the NIR wavelength range. Values of SR and NDVI for the forest and the canopy differed within 10 % and 30 % in red and within 1 % and 10 % in the NIR wavelength range. The relative variation of the BRF with the azimuth and view zenith angles was not very sensitive to the forest floor vegetation. Hence, linear correlation of the modelled total BRF and the Ross-thick kernel was strong for dense forests (R2 > 0.9). The agreement between modelled BRF and satellite-based reflectance values was good when measured LAI, clumping index and leaf single scattering albedo values for a boreal forest were used as input to the model.
  • Björnson, E.; Packard, C. J.; Adiels, M.; Andersson, L.; Matikainen, Niina; Söderlund, S.; Kahri, J.; Sihlbom, C.; Thorsell, A.; Zhou, H.; Taskinen, M.-R.; Borén, J. (2019)
    Background Triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and their remnants have emerged as major risk factors for cardiovascular disease. New experimental approaches are required that permit simultaneous investigation of the dynamics of chylomicrons (CM) and apoB48 metabolism and of apoB100 in very low-density lipoproteins (VLDL). Methods Mass spectrometric techniques were used to determine the masses and tracer enrichments of apoB48 in the CM, VLDL1 and VLDL2 density intervals. An integrated non-steady-state multicompartmental model was constructed to describe the metabolism of apoB48- and apoB100-containing lipoproteins following a fat-rich meal, as well as during prolonged fasting. Results The kinetic model described the metabolism of apoB48 in CM, VLDL1 and VLDL2. It predicted a low level of basal apoB48 secretion and, during fat absorption, an increment in apoB48 release into not only CM but also directly into VLDL1 and VLDL2. ApoB48 particles with a long residence time were present in VLDL, and in subjects with high plasma triglycerides, these lipoproteins contributed to apoB48 measured during fasting conditions. Basal apoB48 secretion was about 50 mg day?1, and the increment during absorption was about 230 mg day?1. The fractional catabolic rates for apoB48 in VLDL1 and VLDL2 were substantially lower than for apoB48 in CM. Discussion This novel non-steady-state model integrates the metabolic properties of both apoB100 and apoB48 and the kinetics of triglyceride. The model is physiologically relevant and provides insight not only into apoB48 release in the basal and postabsorptive states but also into the contribution of the intestine to VLDL pool size and kinetics.
  • Luoma, Ville (Helsingfors universitet, 2013)
    There develops heartwood in the stems of the Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris L.) that differs by its natural characteristics from the other sections of the wood material in the pine stem. Pine heartwood is natural-ly decay resistant and it can be used in conditions where the normal wood products can’t be used. The aim of this study was to develop a method, which can be used for predicting the diameter and volume of heartwood. There is a need for this kind of method, because it still is not possible to estimate the amount of heartwood in a standing tree without damaging the tree itself. The variables measured from single trees describing the diameter of the heartwood on eight relative heights were analysed by using linear regression. When the best explanatory variables were selected, a mixed linear model was created for each of the relative heights. The mixed linear models could also be used for predicting the diameter of pine heartwood at those relative heights. With the help of the pre-dicted diameters a taper curve could be created for the heartwood. The pine heartwood taper curve describes the tapering of the heartwood as function of the tree height. By integrating the taper curve, it was also possible to predict the total volume of the heartwood in a single tree. The models that used tree diameter at breast height and the length of the tree as explanatory variables were able to explain the variation of heartwood diameter on relative heights between 2,5 % and 70 % with coefficient of determination ranging from 0,84 to 0,95 and also recorded a relative RMSE from 15 % to 35 %. Models for relative heights of 85 % and 95 % were not as good as the others (R2-values 0,65 and 0,06 as well as RMSE-values of 74 % and 444 %). Despite not succeeding on all the relative heights, the most important thing is that the models worked best on that area of the stem where most of the heart-wood is located. The volume predictions for single trees based on the heartwood diameter models rec-orded relative RMSE of 35 % and bias of -5 %. Based on the results of the study it shows that exact prediction of pine heartwood diameter is much easier in the base of the stem than in the top part of it. A great deal of variation could be observed whether there was heartwood or not in the top parts of the stem. The volume of heartwood can already be estimated for single trees, but the amount of heartwood can be predicted also in larger scale, such as forest stands. But to get more accurate results in the future, there is a need for more detailed and com-prehensive research data, which would help to determine the still unknown parts of the behaviour of pine heartwood.
  • Suleimanova, Alina; Talanov, Max; Gafurov, Oleg; Gafarov, Fail; Koroleva, Ksenia; Virenque, Anais; Noe, Francesco M.; Mikhailov, Nikita; Nistri, Andrea; Giniatullin, Rashid (2020)
    Extracellular ATP and serotonin (5-HT) are powerful triggers of nociceptive firing in the meninges, a process supporting headache and whose cellular mechanisms are incompletely understood. The current study aimed to develop, with the neurosimulator NEURON, a novel approach to explore in silico the molecular determinants of the long-lasting, pulsatile nature of migraine attacks. The present model included ATP and 5-HT release, ATP diffusion and hydrolysis, 5-HT uptake, differential activation of ATP P2X or 5-HT3 receptors, and receptor subtype-specific desensitization. The model also tested the role of branched meningeal fibers with multiple release sites. Spike generation and propagation were simulated using variable contribution by potassium and sodium channels in a multi-compartment fiber environment. Multiple factors appeared important to ensure prolonged nociceptive firing potentially relevant to long-lasting pain. Crucial roles were observed in: (i) co-expression of ATP P2X2 and P2X3 receptor subunits; (ii) intrinsic activation/inactivation properties of sodium Nav1.8 channels; and (iii) temporal and spatial distribution of ATP/5-HT release sites along the branches of trigeminal nerve fibers. Based on these factors we could obtain either persistent activation of nociceptive firing or its periodic bursting mimicking the pulsating nature of pain. In summary, our model proposes a novel tool for the exploration of peripheral nociception to test the contribution of clinically relevant factors to headache including migraine pain.
  • Dewar, Roderick; Mauranen, Aleksanteri; Makela, Annikki; Holtta, Teemu; Medlyn, Belinda; Vesala, Timo (2018)
    Optimization models of stomatal conductance (g(s)) attempt to explain observed stomatal behaviour in terms of cost-benefit tradeoffs. While the benefit of stomatal opening through increased CO2 uptake is clear, currently the nature of the associated cost(s) remains unclear. We explored the hypothesis that g(s) maximizes leaf photosynthesis, where the cost of stomatal opening arises from nonstomatal reductions in photosynthesis induced by leaf water stress. We analytically solved two cases, CAP and MES, in which reduced leaf water potential leads to reductions in carboxylation capacity (CAP) and mesophyll conductance (g(m)) (MES). Both CAP and MES predict the same one-parameter relationship between the intercellular:atmospheric CO2 concentration ratio (c(i)/c(a)) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD, D), viz. c(i)/c(a) approximate to xi/xi (xi+D), as that obtained from previous optimization models, with the novel feature that the parameter xi is determined unambiguously as a function of a small number of photosynthetic and hydraulic variables. These include soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance, implying a stomatal closure response to drought. MES also predicts that g(s)/g(m) is closely related to c(i)/c(a) and is similarly conservative. These results are consistent with observations, give rise to new testable predictions, and offer new insights into the covariation of stomatal, mesophyll and hydraulic conductances.
  • Fred, Riikka Maria; Heinonen, Aku; Heikkila, Pasi (2019)
    The 1.64 Ga Ahvenisto complex, southeastern Finland, is an anorthosite-mangerite-charnokite-granite (AMCG) suite in which diverse interaction styles of coeval mafic and felsic magmas are observed. Commingling, resulting in mafic pillows and net-veined granite dykes, and chemical mixing producing hybrid rocks, are the most common interaction types. Detailed description of the factors that controlled the interaction styles and relationships between involved rock types are provided using targeted mapping, petrography, and geochemical analyses complemented by chemical mixing and melt viscosity modeling. Interaction occurred at intermediate stages in the magmatic evolution of the complex: when the last fractions of mafic (monzodioritic) melts and the earliest fractions of felsic (hornblende granitic) melts existed simultaneously. Differentiation of mafic magma has produced three monzodioritic rock types: 1) olivine monzodiorite (most mafic, Mg# 49-40), 2) ferrodiorite (Mg# 42-33), and 3) massive monzodiorite (most evolved, Mg# 28-27). The types form an evolutionary trend, and each exhibits different style of interaction with coeval hbl-granite resulting from contrasting conditions and properties (temperature, viscosity, composition). The variation in these properties due to magma evolution and relative proportions of interacting magmas dictated the interaction style: interaction between olivine monzodiorites and granite was almost negligible; ferrodiorites intermingled forming pillows with granitic veins intruding them; and chemical mixing of massive monzodiorite and hbl-granite produced hybrid rocks.
  • Tamás, Molnár (Helsingin yliopisto, 2017)
    I choose to study Pääjärvi catchment area in South Finland, since different researches made at Lammi Bilogical Station are connected to my topic. I studied scientific papers from the area, especiall PRO-DOC project, collected basic data about the area and made my own research with my own approach. I used measured and online data as well meanwhile I created my own GIS maps connected to landscape ecological approach. I picked the most important landscape factors (elevation, slope, aspect, bedrock, soil, site type) and tested their correlation to each other and forest biomass and soil carbon stocks. As results I got that forest ecosystems are very complicated, each factor has impact on others, but only site type had stronger relations to every factor, especiall to both carbon stocks. But the topic requires more research.